arXiv subjects

Marco Morucci

Publications and source records attributed to Marco Morucci.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2023

A Double Machine Learning Approach to Combining Experimental and Observational Data

Experimental and observational studies often lack validity due to untestable assumptions. We propose a double machine learning approach to combine experimental and observational studies, allowing practitioners to test for assumption violations and estimate treatment effects consistently. Our framework proposes a falsification test for external validity and ignorability under milder assumptions. We provide consistent treatment effect estimators even when one of the assumptions is violated. However, our no-free-lunch theorem highlights the necessity of accurately identifying the violated assumption for consistent treatment effect estimation. Through comparative analyses, we show our framework's superiority over existing data fusion methods. The practical utility of our approach is further exemplified by three real-world case studies, underscoring its potential for widespread application in empirical research.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Multi-Task Learning Improves Performance In Deep Argument Mining Models

The successful analysis of argumentative techniques from user-generated text is central to many downstream tasks such as political and market analysis. Recent argument mining tools use state-of-the-art deep learning methods to extract and annotate argumentative techniques from various online text corpora, however each task is treated as separate and different bespoke models are fine-tuned for each dataset. We show that different argument mining tasks share common semantic and logical structure by implementing a multi-task approach to argument mining that achieves better performance than state-of-the-art methods for the same problems. Our model builds a shared representation of the input text that is common to all tasks and exploits similarities between tasks in order to further boost performance via parameter-sharing. Our results are important for argument mining as they show that different tasks share substantial similarities and suggest a holistic approach to the extraction of argumentative techniques from text.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2023

Matched Machine Learning: A Generalized Framework for Treatment Effect Inference With Learned Metrics

We introduce Matched Machine Learning, a framework that combines the flexibility of machine learning black boxes with the interpretability of matching, a longstanding tool in observational causal inference. Interpretability is paramount in many high-stakes application of causal inference. Current tools for nonparametric estimation of both average and individualized treatment effects are black-boxes that do not allow for human auditing of estimates. Our framework uses machine learning to learn an optimal metric for matching units and estimating outcomes, thus achieving the performance of machine learning black-boxes, while being interpretable. Our general framework encompasses several published works as special cases. We provide asymptotic inference theory for our proposed framework, enabling users to construct approximate confidence intervals around estimates of both individualized and average treatment effects. We show empirically that instances of Matched Machine Learning perform on par with black-box machine learning methods and better than existing matching methods for similar problems. Finally, in our application we show how Matched Machine Learning can be used to perform causal inference even when covariate data are highly complex: we study an image dataset, and produce high quality matches and estimates of treatment effects.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Measurement That Matches Theory: Theory-Driven Identification in IRT Models

Measurement bridges theory and empirics. Without measures that appropriately capture theoretical concepts, description will fail to represent reality and true causal inference will be impossible. Yet, the social sciences traffic in complex concepts and their measurement is difficult. Item Response Theory (IRT) models reduce variation in multiple variables to continuous variation along one or more latent dimensions intended to capture key theoretical concepts. Unfortunately, those latent dimensions have no intrinsic conceptual meaning. Partial solutions to that problem include limiting the number of dimensions to one or assigning meaning post-analysis, but either can lead to potential bias and a lack of reliability across data sources. We propose, detail, and validate a semi-supervised approach employing Bayesian Item Response Theory on multiple latent dimensions and binary data. Our approach, which we validate on simulated and real data, yields conceptually meaningful latent dimensions that are reliable across different data sources without additional exogenous assumptions.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2021

FLAME: A Fast Large-scale Almost Matching Exactly Approach to Causal Inference

A classical problem in causal inference is that of matching, where treatment units need to be matched to control units based on covariate information. In this work, we propose a method that computes high quality almost-exact matches for high-dimensional categorical datasets. This method, called FLAME (Fast Large-scale Almost Matching Exactly), learns a distance metric for matching using a hold-out training data set. In order to perform matching efficiently for large datasets, FLAME leverages techniques that are natural for query processing in the area of database management, and two implementations of FLAME are provided: the first uses SQL queries and the second uses bit-vector techniques. The algorithm starts by constructing matches of the highest quality (exact matches on all covariates), and successively eliminates variables in order to match exactly on as many variables as possible, while still maintaining interpretable high-quality matches and balance between treatment and control groups. We leverage these high quality matches to estimate conditional average treatment effects (CATEs). Our experiments show that FLAME scales to huge datasets with millions of observations where existing state-of-the-art methods fail, and that it achieves significantly better performance than other matching methods.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

dame-flame: A Python Library Providing Fast Interpretable Matching for Causal Inference

dame-flame is a Python package for performing matching for observational causal inference on datasets containing discrete covariates. This package implements the Dynamic Almost Matching Exactly (DAME) and Fast Large-Scale Almost Matching Exactly (FLAME) algorithms, which match treatment and control units on subsets of the covariates. The resulting matched groups are interpretable, because the matches are made on covariates, and high-quality, because machine learning is used to determine which covariates are important to match on. DAME solves an optimization problem that matches units on as many covariates as possible, prioritizing matches on important covariates. FLAME approximates the solution found by DAME via a much faster backward feature selection procedure. The package provides several adjustable parameters to adapt the algorithms to specific applications, and can calculate treatment effect estimates after matching. Descriptions of these parameters, details on estimating treatment effects, and further examples, can be found in the documentation at https://almost-matching-exactly.github.io/DAME-FLAME-Python-Package/

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Matching Bounds: How Choice of Matching Algorithm Impacts Treatment Effects Estimates and What to Do about It

Many major works in social science employ matching to make causal conclusions, but different matches on the same data may produce different treatment effect estimates, even when they achieve similar balance or minimize the same loss function. We discuss reasons and consequences of this problem. We present evidence of this problem by replicating ten papers that use matching and we find that different popular matching algorithms produce inconsistent results. We introduce Matching Bounds: a finite-sample, nonstochastic method that allows analysts to know whether a matched sample that produces different results with the same levels of balance and overall match quality could be obtained from their data. We apply Matching Bounds to a replication of two studies and show that in one case results are robust to this issue and in another they are not.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2020

Adaptive Hyper-box Matching for Interpretable Individualized Treatment Effect Estimation

We propose a matching method for observational data that matches units with others in unit-specific, hyper-box-shaped regions of the covariate space. These regions are large enough that many matches are created for each unit and small enough that the treatment effect is roughly constant throughout. The regions are found as either the solution to a mixed integer program, or using a (fast) approximation algorithm. The result is an interpretable and tailored estimate of a causal effect for each unit.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

Almost-Matching-Exactly for Treatment Effect Estimation under Network Interference

We propose a matching method that recovers direct treatment effects from randomized experiments where units are connected in an observed network, and units that share edges can potentially influence each others' outcomes. Traditional treatment effect estimators for randomized experiments are biased and error prone in this setting. Our method matches units almost exactly on counts of unique subgraphs within their neighborhood graphs. The matches that we construct are interpretable and high-quality. Our method can be extended easily to accommodate additional unit-level covariate information. We show empirically that our method performs better than other existing methodologies for this problem, while producing meaningful, interpretable results.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2019

Interpretable Almost-Matching-Exactly With Instrumental Variables

Uncertainty in the estimation of the causal effect in observational studies is often due to unmeasured confounding, i.e., the presence of unobserved covariates linking treatments and outcomes. Instrumental Variables (IV) are commonly used to reduce the effects of unmeasured confounding. Existing methods for IV estimation either require strong parametric assumptions, use arbitrary distance metrics, or do not scale well to large datasets. We propose a matching framework for IV in the presence of observed categorical confounders that addresses these weaknesses. Our method first matches units exactly, and then consecutively drops variables to approximately match the remaining units on as many variables as possible. We show that our algorithm constructs better matches than other existing methods on simulated datasets, and we produce interesting results in an application to political canvassing.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2018

A robust approach to quantifying uncertainty in matching problems of causal inference

Unquantified sources of uncertainty in observational causal analyses can break the integrity of the results. One would never want another analyst to repeat a calculation with the same dataset, using a seemingly identical procedure, only to find a different conclusion. However, as we show in this work, there is a typical source of uncertainty that is essentially never considered in observational causal studies: the choice of match assignment for matched groups, that is, which unit is matched to which other unit before a hypothesis test is conducted. The choice of match assignment is anything but innocuous, and can have a surprisingly large influence on the causal conclusions. Given that a vast number of causal inference studies test hypotheses on treatment effects after treatment cases are matched with similar control cases, we should find a way to quantify how much this extra source of uncertainty impacts results. What we would really like to be able to report is that \emph{no matter} which match assignment is made, as long as the match is sufficiently good, then the hypothesis test result still holds. In this paper, we provide methodology based on discrete optimization to create robust tests that explicitly account for this possibility. We formulate robust tests for binary and continuous data based on common test statistics as integer linear programs solvable with common methodologies. We study the finite-sample behavior of our test statistic in the discrete-data case. We apply our methods to simulated and real-world datasets and show that they can produce useful results in practical applied settings.

stat.ME↗