arXiv subjects

Marco Saretta

Publications and source records attributed to Marco Saretta.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Can Optimal Dispatch Models Recreate Reality? A Retrospective Analysis of Europe's 2022 Energy Crisis Using PyPSA-Eur

Electricity prices result from the complex interplay of supply and demand, which depends on variable renewable energy production, fuel costs, CO$_2$ price, and grid bottlenecks.Between 2020 and 2024, COVID-19 shifted demand and disrupted supply chains and operations in Europe, while Russia's invasion of Ukraine constrained gas supply, causing exceptional volatility in gas prices. It remains unclear whether optimal dispatch models can reliably replicate historical hourly prices during crises, given the rapid fluctuations in fuel prices and operators' limited foresight. In this work, we ask whether an optimal dispatch model, parametrised with historical data on demand, fuel, and CO$_2$ prices, can reproduce the observed market outcomes during this period. We perform hourly hindcasts of electricity generation in 35 countries from 2020 to 2024 using PyPSA-Eur and compare the nodal marginal electricity prices with historical ENTSO-E market prices using the Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE). The scenarios compare static vs dynamic assumptions on fuel and CO$_2$ prices, as well as perfect foresight vs a two-week rolling-horizon optimization. Combining high-resolution fuel and CO$_2$ price time series with limited-foresight substantially improves hindcast accuracy, yielding an average SMAPE of 20.76% based on the daily load-weighted average price for the entire Europe. While improvements relative to the scenario with perfect foresight and static price inputs occur, they are most pronounced during periods of high fuel-price volatility, when marginal-cost swings propagate to electricity prices. In 2022, the optimal generation mix in most countries shows substantially less natural gas and more coal than historically observed. Other discrepancies can be attributed to the model's omission of real-world policy interventions, other dispatch constraints, and generator outages.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2026

Towards European Hydrogen Market Design: Perspectives from Transmission System Operators

Despite hydrogen being central to Europe's decarbonisation strategy, only a small share of renewable hydrogen projects reached final investment decision. A key barrier is uncertainty about how future hydrogen markets will be designed and operated, particularly under Renewable Fuels of Non-Biological Origin requirements. This study investigates the extent to which future hydrogen market design can be adapted from existing natural gas markets, and the challenges it must address. The analysis was based on a survey targeting European gas transmission system operators, structured around five components: market design principles, trading frameworks, capacity allocation, tariffs, and balancing. The survey produced two outputs: an assessment of mechanism transferability and an identification of challenges for early hydrogen market development. Core market design principles and trading frameworks are broadly transferable from natural gas markets, as entry-exit systems and virtual trading points. Capacity allocation requires targeted adaptation to improve coupling with electricity markets. Tariffs require adaptation through intertemporal cost allocation, distributing infrastructure costs over time to protect early adopters. Balancing regimes should be revisited to reflect hydrogen's physical characteristics and different linepack flexibility usages. Key challenges for early hydrogen markets include: temporal mismatches between variable renewable supply and expected relatively stable industrial demand, limited operational flexibility due to scarce storage and reduced pipeline linepack, fragmented regional hydrogen clusters, and regulatory uncertainty affecting long-term investment decisions. These findings provide empirical input to the hydrogen network code led by the European Network of Hydrogen Network Operators and offer guidance to policymakers designing hydrogen market frameworks.

math.OC↗

arXiv2023

Electrolyzer Scheduling for Nordic FCR Services

The cost competitiveness of green hydrogen production via electrolysis presents a significant challenge for its large-scale adoption. One potential solution to make electrolyzers profitable is to diversify their products and participate in various markets, generating additional revenue streams. Electrolyzers can be utilized as flexible loads and participate in various frequency-supporting ancillary service markets by adjusting their operating set points. This paper develops a mixed-integer linear model, deriving an optimal scheduling strategy for an electrolyzer providing Frequency Containment Reserve (FCR) services in the Nordic synchronous region. Depending on the hydrogen price and demand, results show that the provision of various FCR services, particularly those for critical frequency conditions (FCR-D), could significantly increase the profit of the electrolyzer.

math.OC↗