arXiv subjects

Maren Diane Schmeck

Publications and source records attributed to Maren Diane Schmeck.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Asymptotics of Ruin Probabilities in a Subordinated Cramér-Lundberg Model

We study a dynamic model of a non-life insurance portfolio. The foundation of the model is a compound Poisson process that represents the claims side of the insurer. To introduce clusters of claims appearing, e.g. with catastrophic events, this process is time-changed by a Lévy subordinator. The subordinator is chosen so that it evolves, on average, at the same speed as calendar time, creating a trade-off between intensity and severity. We show that such a transformation always has a negative impact on the probability of ruin. Despite the expected total claim amount remaining invariant, it turns out that the probability of ruin as a function of the initial capital falls arbitrarily slowly depending on the choice of the subordinator.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2023

The Market Price of Jump Risk for Delivery Periods: Pricing of Electricity Swaps with Geometric Averaging

In this paper, we extend the market price of risk for delivery periods (MPDP) of electricity swap contracts by introducing a dimension for jump risk. As introduced by Kemper et al. (2022), the MPDP arises through the use of geometric averaging while pricing electricity swaps in a geometric framework. We adjust the work by Kemper et al. (2022) in two directions: First, we examine a Merton type model taking jumps into account. Second, we transfer the model to the physical measure by implementing mean-reverting behavior. We compare swap prices resulting from the classical arithmetic (approximated) average to the geometric weighted average. Under the physical measure, we discover a decomposition of the swap's market price of risk into the classical one and the MPDP.

q-fin.PR↗

arXiv2020

A decomposition of general premium principles into risk and deviation

We provide an axiomatic approach to general premium principles in a probability-free setting that allows for Knightian uncertainty. Every premium principle is the sum of a risk measure, as a generalization of the expected value, and a deviation measure, as a generalization of the variance. One can uniquely identify a maximal risk measure and a minimal deviation measure in such decompositions. We show how previous axiomatizations of premium principles can be embedded into our more general framework. We discuss dual representations of convex premium principles, and study the consistency of premium principles with a financial market in which insurance contracts are traded.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2020

Optimal switch from a fossil-fueled to an electric vehicle

In this paper we propose and solve a real options model for the optimal adoption of an electric vehicle. A policymaker promotes the abeyance of fossil-fueled vehicles through an incentive, and the representative fossil-fueled vehicle's owner decides the time at which buying an electric vehicle, while minimizing a certain expected cost. This involves a combination of various types of costs: the stochastic opportunity cost of driving one unit distance with a traditional fossil-fueled vehicle instead of an electric one, the cost associated to traffic bans, and the net purchase cost. After determining the optimal switching time and the minimal cost function for a general diffusive opportunity cost, we specialize to the case of a mean-reverting process. In such a setting, we provide a model calibration on real data from Italy, and we study the dependency of the optimal switching time with respect to the model's parameters. Moreover, we study the effect of traffic bans and incentive on the expected optimal switching time. We observe that incentive and traffic bans on fossil-fueled transport can be used as effective tools in the hand of the policymaker to encourage the adoption of electric vehicles, and hence to reduce air pollution.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2019

Capturing the power options smile by an additive two-factor model for overlapping futures prices

In this paper we introduce an additive two-factor model for electricity futures prices based on Normal Inverse Gaussian Lévy processes, that fulfills a no-overlapping-arbitrage (NOA) condition. We compute European option prices by Fourier transform methods, introduce a specific calibration procedure that takes into account no-arbitrage constraints and fit the model to power option settlement prices of the European Energy Exchange (EEX). We show that our model is able to reproduce the different levels and shapes of the implied volatility (IV) profiles displayed by options with a variety of delivery periods.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2016

Pricing options on forwards in energy markets: the role of mean reversion's speed

Consider the problem of pricing options on forwards in energy markets, when spot prices follow a geometric multi-factor model in which several rates of mean reversion appear. In this paper we investigate the role played by slow mean reversion when pricing and hedging options. In particular, we determine both upper and lower bounds for the error one makes neglecting low rates of mean reversion in the spot price dynamics.

q-fin.MF↗