arXiv subjects

Margaret C. Turnbull

Publications and source records attributed to Margaret C. Turnbull.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Panchromatic Spectra of Nearby Low-mass and Sun-like Stars with Directly Imageable Habitable Zones

Characterizing the high-energy radiation environments of stars plays a critical role in determining which systems' planets are capable of retaining atmospheres and sustaining habitable conditions. X-ray through ultraviolet (UV) radiation drives atmospheric photochemistry, heating, and escape, making accurate characterization of stellar high-energy emission essential for both interpreting future exoplanet observations and identifying the most promising targets for life detection. We construct panchromatic spectral energy distributions (SEDs) spanning the X-ray through radio for 12 nearby low-mass and Sun-like stars with directly imageable habitable zones that are prioritized targets for the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) and Extremely Large Telescopes (ELTs). These SEDs are generated using forward stellar atmosphere models guided and constrained by available archival X-ray and UV observations. We find that many stars in this sample exhibit elevated high-energy radiation environments relative to the modern Sun, with habitable zone X-ray and extreme UV (XUV) fluxes frequently exceeding solar values by 1-2 orders of magnitude. The elevated emission likely reflects a combination of sample selection effects, differences in stellar age and rotation, and intrinsic magnetic variability, with multi-epoch observations demonstrating that variability alone can significantly alter inferred radiation environments. These results highlight high-energy radiation as an important discriminator in identifying the most promising habitable planet hosts and demonstrate the need for expanded X-ray and UV observations to complete the stellar characterization necessary for HWO target prioritization.

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arXiv2026

X-ray Emission and Stellar Ages of Sun-Like Stars

We present an analysis of XMM-Newton and Chandra observations of 85 nearby main-sequence FGK stars with age estimates ranging from 0.2-12 Gyr. We measure quiescent 0.3-10 keV luminosities, variability metrics, and multi-temperature thermal plasma spectral parameters. Quiescent spectra are typically described by three characteristic plasma components ($kT\approx0.1$, 0.4, 0.8 keV); the fraction of flux from $T\ge7$ MK rises with X-ray surface flux, reaching $\sim$50% for $F_X\gtrsim10^6$ erg cm$^{-2}$ s$^{-1}$. We derive relations between emission measure-weighted coronal temperature and both $L_X$ and $F_X$, enabling temperature-informed count-rate conversions for faint sources. We quantify how bandpass conversions (ROSAT 0.1-2.4 keV vs. XMM-Newton 0.3-10 keV) depend on temperature, and show that inferred ROSAT-band $L_X$ broadly follows the canonical $t^{-1.5}$ decay, while the harder band exhibits increased scatter at $>$4 Gyr. Several stars show excess activity suggestive of age errors, inclination effects, or unresolved companions. Some of these "outlier" stars are potential direct imaging targets for the Habitable Worlds Observatory, and detailed characterization of these stars is needed to inform their likely influence on the atmospheric evolution of orbiting planets.

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arXiv2024

Dynamical Viability Assessment for Habitable Worlds Observatory Targets

Exoplanetary science is increasingly prioritizing efforts toward direct imaging of planetary systems, with emphasis on those that may enable the detection and characterization of potentially habitable exoplanets. The recent 2020 Astronomy and Astrophysics decadal survey recommended the development of a space-based direct imaging mission that has subsequently been referred to as the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO). A fundamental challenge in the preparatory work for the HWO search for exo-Earths is the selection of suitable stellar targets. Much of the prior efforts regarding the HWO targets has occurred within the context of exoplanet surveys that have characterized the stellar properties for the nearest stars. The preliminary input catalog for HWO consists of 164 stars, of which 30 are known exoplanet hosts to 70 planets. Here, we provide a dynamical analysis for these 30 systems, injecting a terrestrial planet mass into the Habitable Zone (HZ) and determining the constraints on stable orbit locations due to the influence of the known planets. For each system, we calculate the percentage of the HZ that is dynamically viable for the potential presence of a terrestrial planet, providing an additional metric for inclusion of the stars within the HWO target list. Our analysis shows that, for 11 of the systems, less than 50% of the HZ is dynamically viable, primarily due to the presence of giant planets whose orbits pass near or through the HZ. These results demonstrate the impact that known system architectures can have on direct imaging target selection and overall system habitability.

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arXiv2024

X-ray Emission of Nearby Low-mass and Sun-like Stars with Directly Imageable Habitable Zones

Stellar X-ray and UV radiation can significantly affect the survival, composition, and long-term evolution of the atmospheres of planets in or near their host star's habitable zone (HZ). Especially interesting are planetary systems in the solar neighborhood that may host temperate and potentially habitable surface conditions, which may be analyzed by future ground and space-based direct-imaging surveys for signatures of habitability and life. To advance our understanding of the radiation environment in these systems, we leverage $\sim$3 Msec of XMM-Newton and Chandra observations in order to measure three fundamental stellar properties at X-ray energies for 57 nearby FGKM stellar systems: the shape of the stellar X-ray spectrum, the luminosity, and the timescales over which the stars vary (e.g., due to flares). These systems possess HZs that will be directly imageable to next-generation telescopes such as the Habitable Worlds Observatory and ground-based Extremely Large Telescopes (ELTs). We identify 29 stellar systems with $L_X/L_{\rm bol}$ ratios similar to (or less than) that of the Sun; any potential planets in the habitable zones of these stars therefore reside in present day X-ray radiation environments similar to (or less hostile than) modern Earth, though a broader set of these targets could host habitable planets. An additional 19 stellar systems have been observed with the Swift X-ray Telescope; in total, only $\sim$30% of potential direct imaging target stars has been observed with XMM-Newton, Chandra, or Swift. The data products from this work (X-ray light curves and spectra) are available via a public Zenodo repository (doi: 10.5281/zenodo.11490574).

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arXiv2021

A Community Exoplanet Imaging Data Challenge for Roman CGI and Starshade Rendezvous

Operating in an unprecedented contrast regime ($10^{-7}$ to $10^{-9}$), the Roman Coronagraph Instrument (CGI) will serve as a pathfinder for key technologies needed for future Earth-finding missions. The Roman Exoplanet Imaging Data Challenge (Roman EIDC) was a community engagement effort that tasked participants with extracting exoplanets and their orbits for a 47 UMa-like target star, given: (1) 15 years of simulated precursor radial velocity (RV) data, and (2) six epochs of simulated imaging taken over the course of the Roman mission. The Roman EIDC simulated images include 4 epochs with CGI's Hybrid Lyot Coronagraph (HLC) plus 2 epochs with a starshade (SS) assumed to arrive as part of a Starshade Rendezvous later in the mission. Here, we focus on our in-house analysis of the outermost planet, for which the starshade's higher throughput and lower noise floor present a factor of ~4 improvement in signal-to-noise ratio over the narrow-field HLC. We find that, although the RV detection was marginal, the precursor RV data enable the mass and orbit to be constrained with only 2 epochs of starshade imaging. Including the HLC images in the analysis results in improved measurements over RV + SS alone, with the greatest gains resulting from images taken at epochs near maximum elongation. Combining the two epochs of SS imaging with the RV + HLC data resulted in a factor of ~2 better orbit and mass determinations over RV + HLC alone. The Roman CGI, combined with precursor RV data and later mission SS imaging, form a powerful trifecta in detecting exoplanets and determining their masses, albedos, and system configurations. While the Roman CGI will break new scientific and technological ground with direct imaging of giant exoplanets within ~5 AU of V~5 and brighter stars, a Roman Starshade Rendezvous mission would additionally enable the detection of planets out to ~8 AU in those systems.

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arXiv2021

Direct Imaging of Exoplanets Beyond the Radial Velocity Limit: Application to the HD 134987 System

Future direct imaging missions will primarily observe planets that have been previously detected, mostly via the radial velocity (RV) technique, to characterize planetary atmospheres. In the meantime, direct imaging may discover new planets within existing planetary systems that have bright enough reflected flux, yet with insufficient signals for other methods to detect. Here, we investigate the parameter space within which planets are unlikely to be detected by RV in the near future due to precision limitations, but could be discovered through reflected light with future direct imaging missions. We use the HD 134987 system as a working example, combine RV and direct imaging detection limit curves in the same parameter space through various assumptions, and insert a fictitious planet into the system while ensuring it lies between the RV and imaging detection limits. Planet validity tested through dynamical simulations and retrieval tests revealed that the planet could indeed be detected by imaging while remaining hidden from RV surveys. Direct imaging retrieval was carried out using starshade simulations for two mission concepts: the Starshade Rendezvous Probe that could be coupled with the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope, and the Habitable Exoplanet Observatory. This method is applicable to any other systems and high contrast direct imaging instruments, and could help inform future imaging observations and data analysis on the discovery of new exoplanets.

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arXiv2020

Science Extraction from TESS Observations of Known Exoplanet Hosts

The transit method of exoplanet discovery and characterization has enabled numerous breakthroughs in exoplanetary science. These include measurements of planetary radii, mass-radius relationships, stellar obliquities, bulk density constraints on interior models, and transmission spectroscopy as a means to study planetary atmospheres. The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) has added to the exoplanet inventory by observing a significant fraction of the celestial sphere, including many stars already known to host exoplanets. Here we describe the science extraction from TESS observations of known exoplanet hosts during the primary mission. These include transit detection of known exoplanets, discovery of additional exoplanets, detection of phase signatures and secondary eclipses, transit ephemeris refinement, and asteroseismology as a means to improve stellar and planetary parameters. We provide the statistics of TESS known host observations during Cycle 1 & 2, and present several examples of TESS photometry for known host stars observed with a long baseline. We outline the major discoveries from observations of known hosts during the primary mission. Finally, we describe the case for further observations of known exoplanet hosts during the TESS extended mission and the expected science yield.

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arXiv2020

Transits of Known Planets Orbiting a Naked-Eye Star

Some of the most scientifically valuable transiting planets are those that were already known from radial velocity (RV) surveys. This is primarily because their orbits are well characterized and they preferentially orbit bright stars that are the targets of RV surveys. The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite ({\it TESS}) provides an opportunity to survey most of the known exoplanet systems in a systematic fashion to detect possible transits of their planets. HD~136352 (Nu$^2$~Lupi) is a naked-eye ($V = 5.78$) G-type main-sequence star that was discovered to host three planets with orbital periods of 11.6, 27.6, and 108.1 days via RV monitoring with the HARPS spectrograph. We present the detection and characterization of transits for the two inner planets of the HD~136352 system, revealing radii of $1.482^{+0.058}_{-0.056}$~$R_\oplus$ and $2.608^{+0.078}_{-0.077}$~$R_\oplus$ for planets b and c, respectively. We combine new HARPS observations with RV data from Keck/HIRES and the AAT, along with {\it TESS} photometry from Sector 12, to perform a complete analysis of the system parameters. The combined data analysis results in extracted bulk density values of $ρ_b = 7.8^{+1.2}_{-1.1}$~gcm$^{-3}$ and $ρ_c = 3.50^{+0.41}_{-0.36}$~gcm$^{-3}$ for planets b and c, respectively, thus placing them on either side of the radius valley. The combination of the multi-transiting planet system, the bright host star, and the diversity of planetary interiors and atmospheres means this will likely become a cornerstone system for atmospheric and orbital characterization of small worlds.

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arXiv2020

Dynamical Packing in the Habitable Zone: The Case of Beta CVn

Uncovering the occurrence rate of terrestrial planets within the Habitable Zone (HZ) of their host stars has been a particular focus of exoplanetary science in recent years. The statistics of these occurrence rates have largely been derived from transiting planet discoveries, and have uncovered numerous HZ planets in compact systems around M dwarf host stars. Here we explore the width of the HZ as a function of spectral type, and the dynamical constraints on the number of stable orbits within the HZ for a given star. We show that, although the Hill radius for a given planetary mass increases with larger semi-major axis, the width of the HZ for earlier-type stars allows for more terrestrial planets in the HZ than late-type stars. In general, dynamical constraints allow $\sim$6 HZ Earth-mass planets for stellar masses $\gtrsim 0.7 M_\odot$, depending on the presence of farther out giant planets. As an example, we consider the case of Beta CVn, a nearby bright solar-type star. We present 20 years of radial velocities (RV) from the Keck/HIRES and APF instruments and conduct an injection-recovery analysis of planetary signatures in the data. Our analysis of these RV data rule out planets more massive than Saturn within 10~AU of the star. These system properties are used to calculate the potential dynamical packing of terrestrial planets in the HZ and show that such nearby stellar targets could be particularly lucrative for HZ planet detection by direct imaging exoplanet missions.

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arXiv2019

TESS Asteroseismology of the known red-giant host stars HD 212771 and HD 203949

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) is performing a near all-sky survey for planets that transit bright stars. In addition, its excellent photometric precision enables asteroseismology of solar-type and red-giant stars, which exhibit convection-driven, solar-like oscillations. Simulations predict that TESS will detect solar-like oscillations in nearly 100 stars already known to host planets. In this paper, we present an asteroseismic analysis of the known red-giant host stars HD 212771 and HD 203949, both systems having a long-period planet detected through radial velocities. These are the first detections of oscillations in previously known exoplanet-host stars by TESS, further showcasing the mission's potential to conduct asteroseismology of red-giant stars. We estimate the fundamental properties of both stars through a grid-based modeling approach that uses global asteroseismic parameters as input. We discuss the evolutionary state of HD 203949 in depth and note the large discrepancy between its asteroseismic mass ($M_\ast = 1.23 \pm 0.15\,{\rm M}_\odot$ if on the red-giant branch or $M_\ast = 1.00 \pm 0.16\,{\rm M}_\odot$ if in the clump) and the mass quoted in the discovery paper ($M_\ast = 2.1 \pm 0.1\,{\rm M}_\odot$), implying a change $>30\,\%$ in the planet's mass. Assuming HD 203949 to be in the clump, we investigate the planet's past orbital evolution and discuss how it could have avoided engulfment at the tip of the red-giant branch. Finally, HD 212771 was observed by K2 during its Campaign 3, thus allowing for a preliminary comparison of the asteroseismic performances of TESS and K2. We estimate the ratio of the observed oscillation amplitudes for this star to be $A_{\rm max}^{\rm TESS}/A_{\rm max}^{\rm K2} = 0.75 \pm 0.14$, consistent with the expected ratio of $\sim0.85$ due to the redder bandpass of TESS.

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arXiv2019

Predicted Yield of Transits of Known Radial Velocity Exoplanets from the TESS Primary and Extended Missions

Radial velocity (RV) surveys have detected hundreds of exoplanets through their gravitational interactions with their host stars. Some will be transiting, but most lack sufficient follow-up observations to confidently detect (or rule out) transits. We use published stellar, orbital, and planetary parameters to estimate the transit probabilities for nearly all exoplanets that have been discovered via the RV method. From these probabilities, we predict that $25.5^{+0.7}_{-0.7}$ of the known RV exoplanets should transit their host stars. This prediction is more than double the amount of RV exoplanets that are currently known to transit. The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) presents a valuable opportunity to explore the transiting nature of many of the known RV exoplanet systems. Based on the anticipated pointing of TESS during its two-year primary mission, we identify the known RV exoplanets that it will observe and predict that $11.7^{+0.3}_{-0.3}$ of them will have transits detected by TESS. However, we only expect the discovery of transits for $\sim$3 of these exoplanets to be novel (i.e., not previously known). We predict that the TESS photometry will yield dispositive null results for the transits of $\sim$125 RV exoplanets. This will represent a substantial increase in the effort to refine ephemerides of known RV exoplanets. We demonstrate that these results are robust to changes in the ecliptic longitudes of future TESS observing sectors. Finally, we consider how several potential TESS extended mission scenarios affect the number of transiting RV exoplanets we expect TESS to observe.

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arXiv2018

Maximum Angular Separation Epochs for Exoplanet Imaging Observations

Direct imaging of exoplanets presents both significant challenges and significant gains. The advantages primarily lie in receiving emitted and, with future instruments, reflected photons at phase angles not accessible by other techniques, enabling the potential for atmospheric studies and the detection of rotation and surface features. The challenges are numerous and include coronagraph development and achieving the necessary contrast ratio. Here, we address the specific challenge of determining epochs of maximum angular separation for the star and planet. We compute orbital ephemerides for known transiting and radial velocity planets, taking Keplerian orbital elements into account. We provide analytical expressions for angular star--planet separation as a function of the true anomaly, including the locations of minimum and maximum. These expressions are used to calculate uncertainties for maximum angular separation as a function of time for the known exoplanets, and we provide strategies for improving ephemerides with application to proposed and planned imaging missions.

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arXiv2017

Finding the Needles in the Haystacks: High-Fidelity Models of the Modern and Archean Solar System for Simulating Exoplanet Observations

We present two state-of-the-art models of the solar system, one corresponding to the present day and one to the Archean Eon 3.5 billion years ago. Each model contains spatial and spectral information for the star, the planets, and the interplanetary dust, extending to 50 AU from the sun and covering the wavelength range 0.3 to 2.5 micron. In addition, we created a spectral image cube representative of the astronomical backgrounds that will be seen behind deep observations of extrasolar planetary systems, including galaxies and Milky Way stars. These models are intended as inputs to high-fidelity simulations of direct observations of exoplanetary systems using telescopes equipped with high-contrast capability. They will help improve the realism of observation and instrument parameters that are required inputs to statistical observatory yield calculations, as well as guide development of post-processing algorithms for telescopes capable of directly imaging Earth-like planets.

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arXiv2017

A Catalog of Stellar Unified Properties (CATSUP) for 951 FGK-Stars Within 30 pc

Almost every star in our Galaxy is likely to harbor a terrestrial planet, but accurate measurements of an exoplanet's mass and radius demands accurate knowledge of the properties of its host star. The imminent TESS and CHEOPS missions are slated to discover thousands of new exoplanets. Along with WFIRST, which will directly image nearby planets, these surveys make urgent the need to better characterize stars in the nearby solar neighborhood (< 30 pc). We have compiled the CATalog of Stellar Unified Properties (CATSUP) for 951 stars, including such data as: Gaia astrometry; multiplicity within stellar systems; stellar elemental abundance measurements; standardized spectral types; Ca II H and K stellar activity indices; GALEX NUV and FUV photometry; and X-ray fluxes and luminosities from ROSAT, XMM, and Chandra. We use this data-rich catalog to find correlations, especially between stellar emission indices, colors, and galactic velocity. Additionally, we demonstrate that thick-disk stars in the sample are generally older, have lower activity, and have higher velocities normal to the galactic plane. We anticipate CATSUP will be useful in discerning other trends among stars within the nearby solar neighborhood, for comparing thin-disk vs. thick-disk stars, for comparing stars with and without planets, and for finding correlations between chemical and kinematic properties.

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arXiv2016

On the Orbital Inclination of Proxima Centauri b

The field of exoplanetary science has seen discovery rates increase dramatically over recent years, due largely to the data from the Kepler mission. Even so, individual discoveries of planets orbiting nearby stars are very important for studies of characterization and near-term follow-up prospects. The recent discovery of a terrestrial planet candidate orbiting Proxima Centauri presents numerous opportunities for studying a Super-Earth within our own stellar backyard. One of the remaining ambiguities of the discovery is the true mass of the planet since the discovery signature was obtained via radial velocities. Here we describe the effect of orbital inclination on the Proxima Centauri planet, in terms of mass, radius, atmosphere, and albedo. We calculate the astrometric, angular separation, and reflected light properties of the planet including the effects of orbital eccentricity. We further provide dynamical simulations that show how the presence of additional terrestrial planets within the Habitable Zone varies as a function of inclination. Finally, we discuss these effects in the context of future space-based photometry and imaging missions that could potentially detect the planetary signature and resolve the inclination and mass ambiguity of the planet.

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arXiv2015

Exoplanet Exploration Program Analysis Group (ExoPAG) Report to Paul Hertz Regarding Large Mission Concepts to Study for the 2020 Decadal Survey

This is a joint summary of the reports from the three Astrophysics Program Analysis Groups (PAGs) in response to the "Planning for the 2020 Decadal Survey" charge given by the Astrophysics Division Director Paul Hertz. This joint executive summary contains points of consensus across all three PAGs. Additional findings specific to the individual PAGs are reported separately in the individual reports. The PAGs concur that all four large mission concepts identified in the white paper as candidates for maturation prior to the 2020 Decadal Survey should be studied in detail. These include the Far-IR Surveyor, the Habitable-Exoplanet Imaging Mission, the UV/Optical/IR Surveyor, and the X-ray Surveyor. This finding is predicated upon assumptions outlined in the white paper and subsequent charge, namely that 1) major development of future large flagship missions under consideration are to follow the implementation phases of JWST and WFIRST; 2) NASA will partner with the European Space Agency on its L3 Gravitational Wave Surveyor; 3) the Inflation Probe be classified as a probe-class mission to be developed according to the 2010 Decadal Survey report. If these key assumptions were to change, this PAG finding would need to be re-evaluated. The PAGs find that there is strong community support for the second phase of this activity - maturation of the four proposed mission concepts via Science and Technology Definition Teams (STDTs). The PAGs find that there is strong consensus that all of the STDTs contain broad and interdisciplinary representation of the science community. Finally, the PAGs find that there is community support for a line of Probe-class missions within the Astrophysics mission portfolio (condensed).

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arXiv2014

Stellar Abundances in the Solar Neighborhood: The Hypatia Catalog

We compile spectroscopic abundance data from 84 literature sources for 50 elements across 3058 stars in the solar neighborhood, within 150 pc of the Sun, to produce the Hypatia Catalog. We evaluate the variability of the spread in abundance measurements reported for the same star by different surveys. We also explore the likely association of the star within the Galactic disk, the corresponding observation and abundance determination methods for all catalogs in Hypatia, the influence of specific catalogs on the overall abundance trends, and the effect of normalizing all abundances to the same solar scale. The resulting large number of stellar abundance determinations in the Hypatia Catalog are analyzed only for thin-disk stars with observations that are consistent between literature sources. As a result of our large dataset, we find that the stars in the solar neighborhood may be reveal an asymmetric abundance distribution, such that a [Fe/H]-rich group near to the mid-plane is deficient in Mg, Si, S, Ca, Sc II, Cr II, and Ni as compared to stars further from the plane. The Hypatia Catalog has a wide number of applications, including exoplanet hosts, thick and thin disk stars, or stars with different kinematic properties.

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arXiv2012

The search for habitable worlds: 1. The viability of a starshade mission

As part of NASA's mission to explore habitable planets orbiting nearby stars, this paper explores the detection and characterization capabilities of a 4-m space telescope plus 50-m starshade located at the Earth-Sun L2 point, a.k.a. the New Worlds Observer (NWO). Our calculations include the true spectral types and distribution of stars on the sky, an iterative target selection protocol designed to maximize efficiency based on prior detections, and realistic mission constraints. We carry out both analytical calculations and simulated observing runs for a wide range in exozodiacal background levels (ε = 1 - 100 times the local zodi brightness) and overall prevalence of Earth-like terrestrial planets (η\oplus = 0.1 - 1). We find that even without any return visits, the NWO baseline architecture (IWA = 65 mas, limiting FPB = 4\times10-11) can achieve a 95% probability of detecting and spectrally characterizing at least one habitable Earth-like planet, and an expectation value of ~3 planets found, within the mission lifetime and ΔV budgets, even in the worst-case scenario (η\oplus = 0.1 and ε = 100 zodis for every target). This achievement requires about one year of integration time spread over the 5 year mission, leaving the remainder of the telescope time for UV-NIR General Astrophysics. Cost and technical feasibility considerations point to a "sweet spot" in starshade design near a 50-m starshade effective diameter, with 12 or 16 petals, at a distance of 70,000-100,000 km from the telescope.

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