arXiv subjects

Margaret D. Campbell-Brown

Publications and source records attributed to Margaret D. Campbell-Brown.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Meteor statistics I: The distribution of instrumental magnitudes

The distribution of meteor magnitudes is known to follow an exponential distribution, where the base of this distribution is called the population index. The distribution of observed magnitudes preserves this behavior, but is truncated by the detection threshold. If both the population index and detection threshold can be determined, observed meteor rates can be converted to fluxes and extrapolated to any desired brightness or size. We argue that the distribution of observed or instrumental meteor magnitudes is best modeled as an exponentially modified Gaussian (exGaussian) distribution. This is for three reasons: first, an exGaussian distribution is the natural result of random variations in detection threshold and/or post-detection measurement errors in magnitude. Second, an exGaussian distribution provides a better fit to the magnitude distribution than all other competing distributions in the literature; we demonstrate this using both a set of faint optical meteor magnitudes and a set of radar meteor echo amplitudes. Finally, the population index, mean detection threshold, and random variation/error terms are easily extracted from the best-fit parameters of an exGaussian distribution.

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arXiv2024

The threshold at which a meteor shower becomes hazardous to spacecraft

Although the risk posed to spacecraft due to meteoroid impacts is dominated by sporadic meteoroids, meteor showers can raise this risk for short periods of time. NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office issues meteor shower forecasts that describe these periods of elevated risk, primarily for the purpose of helping plan extravehicular activities. These forecasts are constructed using a list of meteor shower parameters that has evolved over time to include newly discovered showers and incorporate improved measurements of their characteristics. However, at this point in time, more than a thousand meteor showers have been reported by researchers, many of which are extremely minor, are unconfirmed, or lack measurements of critical parameters. Thus, a comprehensive approach is no longer feasible. In this report we present a quantitative criterion for a potentially hazardous meteor shower and apply this criterion to the list of established meteor showers in order to determine which showers should be included in our annual forecasts.

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arXiv2024

A reference meteor magnitude for intercomparable fluxes

The rate at which meteors pass through Earth's atmosphere has been measured or estimated many times over; existing flux measurements span at least 12 astronomical magnitudes, or roughly five decades in mass. Unfortunately, the common practice of scaling flux to a universal reference magnitude of +6.5 tends to collapse the magnitude or mass dimension. Furthermore, results from different observation networks can appear discrepant due solely to the use of different assumed population indices, and readers cannot resolve this discrepancy without access to magnitude data. We present an alternate choice of reference magnitude that is representative of the observed meteors and minimizes the dependence of flux on population index. We apply this choice to measurements of recent Orionid meteor shower fluxes to illustrate its usefulness for synthesizing independent flux measurements.

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arXiv2019

Meteoroid Structure and Fragmentation

The physical composition and structure of meteoroids gives us insight into the formation processes of their parent asteroids and comets. The strength of and fundamental grain sizes in meteoroids tell us about the environment in which small solar system bodies formed, and the processes which built up these basic planetary building blocks. The structure of meteorites can be studied directly, but the set of objects which survive entry through the atmosphere is biased toward large, strong objects with slow encounter speeds. Fragile objects, small objects and objects with high relative speeds are very unlikely to survive impact with the atmosphere. Objects between 100 microns and 1 meter, which are not strong enough to survive the ablation process, must be studied by radar or optical methods. Large meteoroids, which produce bright fireballs, are generally studied by investigating their compressive strength when they fragment, and their strength can also be inferred indirectly from their end heights. Fragmentation in faint meteors can be inferred from interference in radar observations, or observed directly with high-resolution optical systems. Meteor light curves, begin heights and time-evolving spectra can also be used to infer meteoroid structure. This paper presents a review of the meteor observation methods currently used to infer the structure and fragmentation of meteoroids in the millimeter to meter size range, and the current state of understanding these observations have given us.

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arXiv2019

Solar cycle variation in meteor rates

Sixteen years of meteor radar data from the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR) were used to investigate the link between observed meteor rates and both solar and geomagnetic activity. Meteor rates were corrected for transmitter power and receiver noise, and seasonal effects were removed. A strong negative correlation is seen between solar activity, as measured with the 10.7 cm flux, and observed meteor rates. This lends support to the idea that heating in the atmosphere at times of elevated solar activity changes the scale height and therefore the length and maximum brightness of meteors; a larger scale height near solar maximum leads to longer, fainter meteors and therefore lower rates. A weaker negative correlation was observed with geomagnetic activity as measured with the $K$ index; this correlation was still present when solar activity effects were removed. Meteor activity at solar maximum is as much as 30\% lower than at solar minimum, strictly due to observing biases; geomagnetic activity usually affects meteor rates by less than 10 percent.

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arXiv2015

When Comets Get Old: A Synthesis of Comet and Meteor Observations of the Low Activity Comet 209P/LINEAR

It is speculated that some weakly active comets may be transitional objects between active and dormant comets. These objects are at a unique stage of the evolution of cometary nuclei, as they are still identifiable as active comets, in contrast to inactive comets that are observationally indistinguishable from low albedo asteroids. In this paper, we present a synthesis of comet and meteor observations of Jupiter-family comet 209P/LINEAR, one of the most weakly active comets recorded to-date. Images taken by the Xingming 0.35-m telescope and the Gemini Flamingo-2 camera are modeled by a Monte Carlo dust model, which yields a low dust ejection speed ($1/10$ of that of moderately active comets), dominance of large dust grains, and a low dust production of $0.4~\mathrm{kg \cdot s^{-1}}$ at 19~d after the 2014 perihelion passage. We also find a reddish nucleus of 209P/LINEAR that is similar to D-type asteroids and most Trojan asteroids. Meteor observations with the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR), coupled with meteoroid stream modeling, suggest a low dust production of the parent over the past few hundred orbits, although there are hints of a some temporary increase in activity in the 18th century. Dynamical simulations indicate 209P/LINEAR may have resided in a stable near-Earth orbit for $\sim 10^4$~yr, which is significantly longer than typical JFCs. All these lines of evidence imply that 209P/LINEAR as an aging comet quietly exhausting its remaining near surface volatiles. We also compare 209P/LINEAR to other low activity comets, where evidence for a diversity of the origin of low activity is seen.

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arXiv2013

The Unexpected 2012 Draconid Meteor Storm

An unexpected intense outburst of the Draconid meteor shower was detected by the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR) on October 8, 2012. The peak flux occurred at ~16:40 UT on October 8 with a maximum of 2.4 +/- 0.3 hr-1 km-2 (appropriate to meteoroid mass larger than 10-7 kg), equivalent to a ZHRmax = 9000 +/- 1000 using 5-minute intervals, using a mass distribution index of s = 1.88 +/- 0.01 as determined from the amplitude distribution of underdense Draconid echoes. This makes the out- burst among the strongest Draconid returns since 1946 and the highest flux shower since the 1966 Leonid meteor storm, assuming a constant power-law distribution holds from radar to visual meteoroid sizes. The weighted mean geocentric radiant in the time interval of 15-19h UT, Oct 8, 2012 was αg = 262.4 +/- 0.1 deg, δg = 55.7 +/- 0.1 deg (epoch J2000.0). Visual observers also reported increased activity around the peak time, but with a much lower rate (ZHR 200), suggesting that the magnitude-cumulative num- ber relationship is not a simple power-law. Ablation modeling of the observed meteors as a population does not yield a unique solution for the grain size and distribution of Draconid meteoroids, but is consistent with a typical Draconid meteoroid of mtotal between 10-6 to 10-4 kg being composed of 10 - 100 grains. Dynamical simulations indicate that the outburst was caused by dust particles released during the 1966 per- ihelion passage of the parent comet, 21P/Giacobini-Zinner, although there are dis- crepancies between the modelled and observed timing of the encounter, presumably caused by approaches of the comet to Jupiter during 1966-1972. Based on the results of our dynamical simulation, we predict possible increased activity of the Draconid meteor shower in 2018, 2019, 2021 and 2025.

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arXiv2013

Radar Observations of the 2011 October Draconid Outburst

A strong outburst of the October Draconid meteor shower was predicted for October 8, 2011. Here we present the observations obtained by the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR) during the 2011 outburst. CMOR recorded 61 multi-station Draconid echoes and 179 single-station overdense Draconid echoes (covering the magnitude range of +3 <= MV <= +7) between 16-20h UT on October 8, 2011. The mean radiant for the outburst was determined to be a_g = 261.9o +/- 0.3o, d_g = +55.3o +/- 0.3o (J2000) from observations of the underdense multi-station echoes. This radiant location agrees with model predictions to ~1o . The determined geocentric velocity was found to be ~10-15% lower than the model value (17.0 - 19.1 km s^-1 versus 20.4 km s^-1), a discrepancy we attribute to undercorrection for atmospheric deceleration of low density Draconid meteoroids as well as to poor radar radiant geometry during the outburst peak. The mass index at the time of the outburst was determined to be ~ 1.75 using the amplitude distribution of underdense echoes...

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