arXiv subjects

Margaret Johnson

Publications and source records attributed to Margaret Johnson.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Downscaling land surface temperature data using edge detection and block-diagonal Gaussian process regression

Accurate and high-resolution estimation of land surface temperature (LST) is crucial in estimating evapotranspiration, a measure of plant water use and a central quantity in agricultural applications. In this work, we develop a novel statistical method for downscaling LST data obtained from NASA's ECOSTRESS mission, using high-resolution data from the Landsat 8 mission as a proxy for modeling agricultural field structure. Using the Landsat data, we identify the boundaries of agricultural fields through edge detection techniques, allowing us to capture the inherent block structure present in the spatial domain. We propose a block-diagonal Gaussian process (BDGP) model that captures the spatial structure of the agricultural fields, leverages independence of LST across fields for computational tractability, and accounts for the change of support present in ECOSTRESS observations. We use the resulting BDGP model to perform Gaussian process regression and obtain high-resolution estimates of LST from ECOSTRESS data, along with uncertainty quantification. Our results demonstrate the practicality of the proposed method in producing reliable high-resolution LST estimates, with potential applications in agriculture, urban planning, and climate studies.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2025

A Bayesian hierarchical framework for fusion of remote sensing data: An example with solar-induced fluorescence

Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) has emerged as an effective indicator of vegetation productivity and plant health. The global quantification of SIF and its associated uncertainties yields many important capabilities, including improving carbon flux estimation, improving the identification of carbon sources and sinks, monitoring a variety of ecosystems, and evaluating carbon sequestration efforts. Long-term, regional-to-global scale monitoring is now feasible with the availability of SIF estimates from multiple Earth-observing satellites. These efforts can be aided by a rigorous accounting of the sources of uncertainty present in satellite SIF data products. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) for the estimation of SIF and associated uncertainties from Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) satellite observations at one-degree resolution with global coverage. The hierarchical structure of our modeling framework allows for convenient model specification, quantification of various sources of variation, and the incorporation of seasonal SIF information through Fourier terms in the regression model. The modeling framework leverages the predictable seasonality of SIF in most temperate land areas. The resulting data product complements existing atmospheric carbon dioxide estimates at the same spatio-temporal resolution.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2023

Modelling wildland fire burn severity in California using a spatial Super Learner approach

Given the increasing prevalence of wildland fires in the Western US, there is a critical need to develop tools to understand and accurately predict burn severity. We develop a machine learning model to predict post-fire burn severity using pre-fire remotely sensed data. Hydrological, ecological, and topographical variables collected from four regions of California - the sites of the Kincade fire (2019), the CZU Lightning Complex fire (2020), the Windy fire (2021), and the KNP Fire (2021) - are used as predictors of the difference normalized burn ratio. We hypothesize that a Super Learner (SL) algorithm that accounts for spatial autocorrelation using Vecchia's Gaussian approximation will accurately model burn severity. In all combinations of test and training sets explored, the results of our model showed the SL algorithm outperformed standard Linear Regression methods. After fitting and verifying the performance of the SL model, we use interpretable machine learning tools to determine the main drivers of severe burn damage, including greenness, elevation and fire weather variables. These findings provide actionable insights that enable communities to strategize interventions, such as early fire detection systems, pre-fire season vegetation clearing activities, and resource allocation during emergency responses. When implemented, this model has the potential to minimize the loss of human life, property, resources, and ecosystems in California.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Automatic Dynamic Relevance Determination for Gaussian process regression with high-dimensional functional inputs

In the context of Gaussian process regression with functional inputs, it is common to treat the input as a vector. The parameter space becomes prohibitively complex as the number of functional points increases, effectively becoming a hindrance for automatic relevance determination in high-dimensional problems. Generalizing a framework for time-varying inputs, we introduce the asymmetric Laplace functional weight (ALF): a flexible, parametric function that drives predictive relevance over the index space. Automatic dynamic relevance determination (ADRD) is achieved with three unknowns per input variable and enforces smoothness over the index space. Additionally, we discuss a screening technique to assess under complete absence of prior and model information whether ADRD is reasonably consistent with the data. Such tool may serve for exploratory analyses and model diagnostics. ADRD is applied to remote sensing data and predictions are generated in response to atmospheric functional inputs. Fully Bayesian estimation is carried out to identify relevant regions of the functional input space. Validation is performed to benchmark against traditional vector-input model specifications. We find that ADRD outperforms models with input dimension reduction via functional principal component analysis. Furthermore, the predictive power is comparable to high-dimensional models, in terms of both mean prediction and uncertainty, with 10 times fewer tuning parameters. Enforcing smoothness on the predictive relevance profile rules out erratic patterns associated with vector-input models.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2020

Dark Energy Survey Year 1 Results: Cosmological Constraints from Cluster Abundances and Weak Lensing

We perform a joint analysis of the counts and weak lensing signal of redMaPPer clusters selected from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 dataset. Our analysis uses the same shear and source photometric redshifts estimates as were used in the DES combined probes analysis. Our analysis results in surprisingly low values for $S_8 =σ_8(Ω_{\rm m}/0.3)^{0.5}= 0.65\pm 0.04$, driven by a low matter density parameter, $Ω_{\rm m}=0.179^{+0.031}_{-0.038}$, with $σ_8-Ω_{\rm m}$ posteriors in $2.4σ$ tension with the DES Y1 3x2pt results, and in $5.6σ$ with the Planck CMB analysis. These results include the impact of post-unblinding changes to the analysis, which did not improve the level of consistency with other data sets compared to the results obtained at the unblinding. The fact that multiple cosmological probes (supernovae, baryon acoustic oscillations, cosmic shear, galaxy clustering and CMB anisotropies), and other galaxy cluster analyses all favor significantly higher matter densities suggests the presence of systematic errors in the data or an incomplete modeling of the relevant physics. Cross checks with X-ray and microwave data, as well as independent constraints on the observable--mass relation from SZ selected clusters, suggest that the discrepancy resides in our modeling of the weak lensing signal rather than the cluster abundance. Repeating our analysis using a higher richness threshold ($λ\ge 30$) significantly reduces the tension with other probes, and points to one or more richness-dependent effects not captured by our model.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2019

Fine-scale spatiotemporal air pollution analysis using mobile monitors on Google Street View vehicles

People are increasingly concerned with understanding their personal environment, including possible exposure to harmful air pollutants. In order to make informed decisions on their day-to-day activities, they are interested in real-time information on a localized scale. Publicly available, fine-scale, high-quality air pollution measurements acquired using mobile monitors represent a paradigm shift in measurement technologies. A methodological framework utilizing these increasingly fine-scale measurements to provide real-time air pollution maps and short-term air quality forecasts on a fine-resolution spatial scale could prove to be instrumental in increasing public awareness and understanding. The Google Street View study provides a unique source of data with spatial and temporal complexities, with the potential to provide information about commuter exposure and hot spots within city streets with high traffic. We develop a computationally efficient spatiotemporal model for these data and use the model to make short-term forecasts and high-resolution maps of current air pollution levels. We also show via an experiment that mobile networks can provide more nuanced information than an equally-sized fixed-location network. This modeling framework has important real-world implications in understanding citizens' personal environments, as data production and real-time availability continue to be driven by the ongoing development and improvement of mobile measurement technologies.

stat.AP↗