arXiv subjects

Maria Regina Justina E. Estuar

Publications and source records attributed to Maria Regina Justina E. Estuar.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Utilizing Dynamic Time Warping for Pandemic Surveillance: Understanding the Relationship between Google Trends Network Metrics and COVID-19 Incidences

The premise of network statistics derived from Google Trends data to foresee COVID-19 disease progression is gaining momentum in infodemiology. This approach was applied in Metro Manila, National Capital Region, Philippines. Through dynamic time warping (DTW), the temporal alignment was quantified between network metrics and COVID-19 case trajectories, and systematically explored 320 parameter configurations including two network metrics (network density and clustering coefficient), two data preprocessing methods (Rescaling Daily Data and MSV), multiple thresholds, two correlation window sizes, and Sakoe-Chiba band constraints. Results from the Kruskal-Wallis tests revealed that five of the six parameters significantly influenced alignment quality, with the disease comparison type (active cases vs. confirmed cases) demonstrating the strongest effect. The optimal configuration, which is using the network density statistic with a Rescaling Daily Data transformation, a threshold of 0.8, a 15-day window, and a 50-day radius constraint, achieved a DTW score of 36.30. This indicated substantial temporal alignment with the COVID-19 confirmed cases data. The discoveries demonstrate that network metrics rooted from online search behavior can serve as complementary indicators for epidemic surveillance in urban locations like Metro Manila. This strategy leverages the Philippines' extensive online usage during the pandemic to provide potentially valuable early signals of disease spread, and offers a supplementary tool for public health monitoring in resource-limited situations.

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arXiv2025

Network Density Analysis of Health Seeking Behavior in Metro Manila: A Retrospective Analysis on COVID-19 Google Trends Data

This study examined the temporal aspect of COVID-19-related health-seeking behavior in Metro Manila, National Capital Region, Philippines through a network density analysis of Google Trends data. A total of 15 keywords across five categories (English symptoms, Filipino symptoms, face wearing, quarantine, and new normal) were examined using both 15-day and 30-day rolling windows from March 2020 to March 2021. The methodology involved constructing network graphs using distance correlation coefficients at varying thresholds (0.4, 0.5, 0.6, and 0.8) and analyzing the time-series data of network density and clustering coefficients. Results revealed three key findings: (1) an inverse relationship between the threshold values and network metrics, indicating that higher thresholds provide more meaningful keyword relationships; (2) exceptionally high network connectivity during the initial pandemic months followed by gradual decline; and (3) distinct patterns in keyword relationships, transitioning from policy-focused searches to more symptom-specific queries as the pandemic temporally progressed. The 30-day window analysis showed more stable, but less search activities compared to the 15-day windows, suggesting stronger correlations in immediate search behaviors. These insights are helpful for health communication because it emphasizes the need of a strategic and conscientious information dissemination from the government or the private sector based on the networked search behavior (e.g. prioritizing to inform select symptoms rather than an overview of what the coronavirus is).

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arXiv2021

A Spatial Agent-Based Model for Preemptive Evacuation Decisions During Typhoon

Natural disasters continue to cause tremendous damage to human lives and properties. The Philippines, due to its geographic location, is considered a natural disaster-prone country experiencing an average of 20 tropical cyclones annually. Understanding what factors significantly affect decision making during crucial evacuation stages could help in making decisions on how to prepare for disasters, how to act appropriately and strategically respond during and after a calamity. In this work, an agent-based model for preemptive evacuation decisions during typhoon is presented. In the model, civilians are represented by households and their evacuation decisions were based from calculated perceived risk. Also, rescuer and shelter manager agents were included as facilitators during the preemptive evacuation process. National and municipal census data were employed in the model, particularly for the demographics of household agents. Further, geospatial data of a village in a typhoon-susceptible municipality was used to represent the environment. The decision to evacuate or not to evacuate depends on the agent's perceived risk which also depends on three decision factors: characteristics of the decision maker (CDM); capacity related factors (CRF); and hazard related factors (HRF). Finally, the number of households who decided to evacuate or opted to stay as influenced by the model`s decision factors were determined during simulations. Sensitivity analysis using linear regression shows that all parameters used in the model are significant in the evacuation decision of household agents.

cs.MA↗