arXiv subjects

Mariah G. MacDonald

Publications and source records attributed to Mariah G. MacDonald.

14 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Accounting for Transit Timing Detectability: Biases in Planetary Radius and Orbital Period

Transit Timing Variations (TTVs) are deviations from the time an observer would expect to see an exoplanet transit its host star. In multi-planetary systems, significant TTVs may indicate the presence of another body in the system gravitationally interacting with the transiting exoplanet. T. Holczer et al. (2016) catalogs 2599 Kepler Objects of Interest (KOIs) and provides a statistical analysis of their TTVs for candidates that have transited at least seven times. However, this conservative limit on the number of transits neglects long-period KOIs. Therefore, we extend the statistical analysis performed by T. Holczer et al. (2016) to the population of KOIs that have between three and six transits. We identify six KOIs, three of which have Kepler names (Kepler-103 c, Kepler-90 g, and Kepler-1662 c), with significant TTV signals that were originally overlooked by T. Holczer et al. (2016). Additionally, we search for trends regarding the planetary radius and orbital period of KOIs with significant TTVs. Through a survival analysis, we determine that planets with shorter orbital periods require larger TTV signals to be detected compared to longer period planets, regardless of planetary size. Uncovering trends in TTV statistics such as this one will provide targets for future forward modeling of planetary architectures.

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arXiv2026

Effects of Outer Giant Planets on In Situ Formation of Inner Super-Earths

Recent studies have found an observational correlation between the presence of outer giant planets and inner super-Earths, which implies that outer giants do not suppress the formation of super-Earths. We simulate late-stage in situ planet formation in the presence of outer giant planets using $N$-body simulations. We investigate the effects of two sets of outer giants: the four Solar System giant planets and three dynamically active giant planets. Compared to systems without outer giants, we find that systems with the Solar System giants tend to form inner super-Earths that are more compact, coplanar, and circular, while the systems with the dynamically active giants form inner super-Earths that are more eccentric, inclined, and widely spaced, with lower intrinsic multiplicity. Including a contribution from systems that form with dynamically active giant planets allows us to match observable quantities of super-Earths, including their two component eccentricity distribution. However, matching the observed population requires different formation conditions prior to the giant impact stage for systems with vs. without giant planets. In our model, observed super-Earths that form in the presence of dynamically active outer giants emerge from disks with lower solid surface densities and without a depleted gas stage, suggesting that the giant planets may have reduced, but not prevented, delivery and/or accretion of solids in the inner disk. With a large enough sample of inner and outer systems, we could break down occurrence rates of inner super-Earths based on the properties of outer giants, and vice versa, and then compare these conditional probabilities with simulations.

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arXiv2026

Effects of Pebble Accretion Isolation Mass on Observable Exoplanet Properties

The Kepler Mission has discovered a plethora of planetary systems with super-Earth sized planets. These systems exhibit many properties, from widely-spaced planets with non-negligible eccentricities and inclinations, to tightly-spaced, coplanar, and nearly circular multi-planet systems. The observable properties of these systems, such as planet-planet spacings, multiplicity and orbital morphology, can be strongly influenced by the initial conditions of formation. These conditions affect the early growth of planetary embryos in the gas disk phase through pebble and/or planetesimal accretion, which then affects the final growth of planets during the giant impact stage. In this work, we investigate how assumptions of different limiting embryo isolation masses during early stages of planet formation affect the final properties of super-Earth planets within the inner disk, comparing our mock-observed results to each other, as well as to the Kepler sample. We test several models of pebble accretion isolation mass, including pebble isolation, flow isolation, and migration feedback isolation and otherwise adopt the same parameters for the gas disk. We find that while each model can match at least one distribution of observables in the Kepler catalog, they fall short of matching all distributions simultaneously, even with extreme reweighting. Our inability to match all observations suggests that the initial conditions and/or modeled effects in our simulations that we held fixed should be investigated. This exploration sheds light on how planetary systems evolve and the processes that influence the wide range of system parameters we observe today, helping place our own Solar System in context.

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arXiv2023

exoMMR: a New Python Package to Confirm and Characterize Mean Motion Resonances

The study of orbital resonances allows for the constraint of planetary properties of compact systems. We can predict a system's resonances by observing the orbital periods of the planets, as planets in or near mean motion resonance have period ratios that reduce to a ratio of small numbers. However, a period ratio near commensurability does not guarantee a resonance; we must study the system's dynamics and resonant angles to confirm resonance. Because resonances require in-depth study to confirm, and because two-body resonances require a measurement of the eccentricity vector which is quite challenging, very few resonant pairs or chains have been confirmed. We thus remain in the era of small number statistics, not yet able to perform large population synthesis or informatics studies. To address this problem, we build a python package to find, confirm, and analyze mean motion resonances, primarily through N-body simulations. We then analyze all near-resonant planets in the Kepler/K2 and TESS catalogues, confirming over 60 new resonant pairs and various new resonant chains. We additionally demonstrate the package's functionality and potential by characterizing the mass-eccentricity degeneracy of Kepler-80g, exploring the likelihood of an exterior giant planet in Kepler-80, and constraining the masses of planets in Kepler-305. We find that our methods overestimate the libration amplitudes of the resonant angles and struggle to confirm resonances in systems with more than three planets. We identify various systems that are likely resonant chains but that we are unable to confirm, and highlight next steps for exoplanetary resonances.

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arXiv2022

A Green Bank Telescope search for narrowband technosignatures between 1.1-1.9 GHz during 12 Kepler planetary transits

A growing avenue for determining the prevalence of life beyond Earth is to search for "technosignatures" from extraterrestrial intelligences/agents. Technosignatures require significant energy to be visible across interstellar space and thus intentional signals might be concentrated in frequency, in time, or in space, to be found in mutually obvious places. Therefore, it could be advantageous to search for technosignatures in parts of parameter space that are mutually-derivable to an observer on Earth and a distant transmitter. In this work, we used the L-band (1.1-1.9 GHz) receiver on the Robert C. Byrd Green Bank Telescope (GBT) to perform the first technosignature search pre-synchronized with exoplanet transits, covering 12 Kepler systems. We used the Breakthrough Listen turboSETI pipeline to flag narrowband hits ($\sim$3 Hz) using a maximum drift rate of $\pm$614.4 Hz/s and a signal-to-noise threshold of 5 - the pipeline returned $\sim 3.4 \times 10^5$ apparently-localized features. Visual inspection by a team of citizen scientists ruled out 99.6% of them. Further analysis found 2 signals-of-interest that warrant follow-up, but no technosignatures. If the signals-of-interest are not re-detected in future work, it will imply that the 12 targets in the search are not producing transit-aligned signals from 1.1-1.9 GHz with transmitter powers $>$60 times that of the former Arecibo radar. This search debuts a range of innovative technosignature techniques: citizen science vetting of potential signals-of-interest, a sensitivity-aware search out to extremely high drift rates, a more flexible method of analyzing on-off cadences, and an extremely low signal-to-noise threshold.

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arXiv2022

Confirming the 3:2 Resonance Chain of K2-138

The study of orbital resonances allows for the constraint of planetary properties of compact systems. K2-138 is an early K-type star with six planets, five of which have been proposed to be in the longest chain of 3:2 mean motion resonances. To observe and potentially verify the resonant behavior of K2-138's planets, we run N-body simulations using previously measured parameters. Through our analysis, we find that 99.2% of our simulations result in a chain of 3:2 resonances, although only 11% of them show a five-planet resonance chain. We find we are able to use resonances to constrain the orbital periods and masses of the planets. We explore the possibility of this system forming in situ and through disk migration, and investigate the potential compositions of each planet using a planet structure code.

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arXiv2021

A Five-Planet Resonant Chain: Reevaluation of the Kepler-80 System

Since the launch of the Kepler space telescope in 2009 and the subsequent K2 mission, hundreds of multi-planet systems have been discovered. The study of such systems, both as individual systems and as a population, leads to a better understanding of planetary formation and evolution. Kepler-80, a K-dwarf hosting six super-Earths, was the first system known to have four planets in a chain of resonances, a repeated geometric configuration. Transiting planets in resonant chains can enable us to estimate not only the planets' orbits and sizes but also their masses. Since the original resonance analysis and TTV fitting of Kepler-80, a new planet has been discovered whose signal likely altered the measured masses of the other planets. Here, we determine masses and orbits for all six planets hosted by Kepler-80 by direct forward photodynamical modeling of the lightcurve of this system. We then explore the resonant behaviour of the system. We find that the four middle planets are in a resonant chain, but that the outermost planet only dynamically interacts in $\sim14$\% of our solutions. We also find that the system and its dynamic behaviour are consistent with \emph{in situ} formation and compare our results to two other resonant chain systems, Kepler-60 and TRAPPIST-1.

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arXiv2021

A Statistical Analysis of the Nulling Pulsar Population

Approximately 8% of the $\sim$2800 known pulsars exhibit "nulling," a temporary broadband cessation of normal pulsar emission. Nulling behaviour can be coarsely quantified by the nulling fraction, which describes the percentage of time a given pulsar will be found in a null state. In this paper, we perform the most thorough statistical analysis thus far of the properties of 141 known nulling pulsars. We find weak, non-linear correlations between nulling fraction and pulse width, as well as nulling fraction and spin period which could be attributed to selection effects. We also further investigate a recently-hypothesized gap at 40% nulling fraction. While a local minimum does exist in the distribution, we cannot confirm a consistent and unique break in the distribution when we investigate with univariate and multivariate clustering methods, nor can we prove the existence of two statistically distinct populations about this minimum. Using the same methods, we find that nulling pulsars are a statistically different population from normal, radio, non-nulling pulsars, which has never been quantitatively verified. In addition, we summarize the findings of the prior nulling pulsar statistics literature, which are notoriously contradictory. This study, in context, furthers the idea that nulling fraction alone does not contain enough information to describe the behaviour of a nulling pulsar and that other parameters such as null lengths and null randomness, in addition to a better understanding of selection effects, are required to fully understand this phenomenon.

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arXiv2020

Chains of Planets in Mean Motion Resonances Arising from Oligarchic Growth

Exoplanet systems with multiple planets in mean motion resonances have often been hailed as a signpost of disk driven migration. Resonant chains like Kepler-223 and Kepler-80 consist of a trio of planets with the three-body resonant angle librating and/or with a two-body resonant angle librating for each pair. Here we investigate whether close-in super-Earths and mini-Neptunes forming in situ can lock into resonant chains due to dissipation from a depleted gas disk. We simulate the giant impact phase of planet formation, including eccentricity damping from a gaseous disk, followed by subsequent dynamical evolution over tens of millions of years. In a fraction of simulated systems, we find that planets naturally lock into resonant chains. These planets achieve a chain of near-integer period ratios during the gas disk stage, experience eccentricity damping that captures them into resonance, stay in resonance as the gas disk dissipates, and avoid subsequent giant impacts, eccentricity excitation, and chaotic diffusion that would dislodge the planets from resonance. Disk conditions that enable planets to complete their formation during the gas disk stage enable those planets to achieve tight period ratios <= 2 and, if they happen to be near integer period ratios, lock into resonance. Using the weighting of different disk conditions deduced by MacDonald et al. (2020) and forward modeling Kepler selection effects, we find that our simulations of in situ formation via oligarchic growth lead to a rate of observable trios with integer period ratios and librating resonant angles comparable to observed Kepler systems.

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arXiv2020

Forming Diverse Super-Earth Systems in Situ

Super-Earths and mini-Neptunes exhibit great diversity in their compositional and orbital properties. Their bulk densities span a large range, from those dense enough to be purely rocky to those needing a substantial contribution from volatiles to their volumes. Their orbital configurations range from compact, circular multi-transiting systems like Kepler-11 to systems like our Solar System's terrestrial planets with wider spacings and modest but significant eccentricities and mutual inclinations. Here we investigate whether a continuum of formation conditions resulting from variation in the amount of solids available in the inner disk can account for the diversity of orbital and compositional properties observed for super Earths, including the apparent dichotomy between single transiting and multiple transiting system. We simulate in situ formation of super-Earths via giant impacts and compare to the observed Kepler sample. We find that intrinsic variations among disks in the amount of solids available for in situ formation can account for the orbital and compositional diversity observed among Kepler's transiting planets. Our simulations can account for the planets' distributions of orbital period ratios, transit duration ratios, and transit multiplicity; higher eccentricities for single than multi transiting planets; smaller eccentricities for larger planets; scatter in the mass-radius relation, including lower densities for planets with masses measured with TTVs than RVs; and similarity in planets' sizes and spacings within each system. Our findings support the theory that variation among super-Earth and mini-Neptune properties is primarily locked in by different in situ formation conditions, rather than arising stochastically through subsequent evolution.

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arXiv2019

Examining the Radius Valley: a Machine Learning Approach

The ''radius valley" is a relative dearth of planets between two potential populations of exoplanets, super-Earths and mini-Neptunes. This feature appears in examining the distribution of planetary radii, but has only ever been characterized on small samples. The valley could be a result of photoevaporation, which has been predicted in numerous theoretical models, or a result of other processes. Here, we investigate the relationship between planetary radius and orbital period through 2-dimensional kernel density estimator and various clustering methods, using all known super-Earths ($R<4.0R_E$). With our larger sample, we confirm the radius valley and characterize it as a power law. Using a variety of methods, we find a range of slopes that are consistent with each other and distinctly negative. We average over these results and find the slope to be $m=-0.319^{+0.088}_{-0.116}$. We repeat our analysis on samples from previous studies. For all methods we use, the resulting line has a negative slope, which is consistent with models of photoevaporation and core-powered mass loss but inconsistent with planets forming in a gas-poor disk.

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arXiv2018

The orbital eccentricity of small planet systems

We determine the orbital eccentricities of individual small Kepler planets, through a combination of asteroseismology and transit light-curve analysis. We are able to constrain the eccentricities of 51 systems with a single transiting planet, which supplement our previous measurements of 66 planets in multi-planet systems. Through a Bayesian hierarchical analysis, we find evidence that systems with only one detected transiting planet have a different eccentricity distribution than systems with multiple detected transiting planets. The eccentricity distribution of the single-transiting systems is well described by the positive half of a zero-mean Gaussian distribution with a dispersion $σ_e = 0.32 \pm 0.06$, while the multiple-transit systems are consistent with $σ_e = 0.083^{+0.015}_{-0.020}$. A mixture model suggests a fraction of $0.76^{+0.21}_{-0.12}$ of single-transiting systems have a moderate eccentricity, represented by a Rayleigh distribution that peaks at $0.26^{+0.04}_{-0.06}$. This finding may reflect differences in the formation pathways of systems with different numbers of transiting planets. We investigate the possibility that eccentricities are "self-excited" in closely packed planetary systems, as well as the influence of long-period giant companion planets. We find that both mechanisms can qualitatively explain the observations. We do not find any evidence for a correlation between eccentricity and stellar metallicity, as has been seen for giant planets. Neither do we find any evidence that orbital eccentricity is linked to the detection of a companion star. Along with this paper we make available all of the parameters and uncertainties in the eccentricity distributions, as well as the properties of individual systems, for use in future studies.

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arXiv2018

Three Pathways for Observed Resonant Chains

A question driving many studies is whether the thousands of exoplanets known today typically formed where we observe them or formed further out in the disk and migrated in. Early discoveries of giant exoplanets orbiting near their host stars and exoplanets in or near mean motion resonances were interpreted as evidence for migration and its crucial role in the beginnings of planetary systems. long-scale migration has been invoked to explain systems of planets in mean motion resonant chains consisting of three or more planets linked by integer period ratios. However, recent studies have reproduced specific resonant chains in systems via short-scale migration, and eccentricity damping has been shown to capture planets into resonant chains. We investigate whether the observed resonant chains in Kepler-80, Kepler-223, Kepler-60, and TRAPPIST-1 can be established through long-scale migration, short-scale migration, and/or only eccentricity damping by running suites of N-body simulations. We find that, for each system, all three mechanisms are able to reproduce the observed resonant chains. long-scale migration is not the only plausible explanation for resonant chains in these systems, and resonant chains are potentially compatible with in situ formation.

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arXiv2016

A Dynamical Analysis of the Kepler-80 System of Five Transiting Planets

Kepler has discovered hundreds of systems with multiple transiting exoplanets which hold tremendous potential both individually and collectively for understanding the formation and evolution of planetary systems. Many of these systems consist of multiple small planets with periods less than ~50 days known as Systems with Tightly-spaced Inner Planets, or STIPs. One especially intriguing STIP, Kepler-80 (KOI-500), contains five transiting planets: f, d, e, b, and c with periods of 1.0, 3.1, 4.6, 7.1, 9.5 days, respectively. We provide measurements of transit times and a transit timing variation (TTV) dynamical analysis. We find that TTVs cannot reliably detect eccentricities for this system, though mass estimates are not affected. Restricting the eccentricity to a reasonable range, we infer masses for the outer four planets (d, e, b, and c) to be $6.75^{+0.69}_{-0.51}$, $4.13^{+0.81}_{-0.95}$, $6.93^{+1.05}_{-0.70}$, and $6.74^{+1.23}_{-0.86}$ Earth masses, respectively. The similar masses but different radii are consistent with terrestrial compositions for d and e and $\sim$2% H/He envelopes for b and c. We confirm that the outer four planets are in a rare dynamical configuration with four interconnected three-body resonances that are librating with few degree amplitudes. We present a formation model that can reproduce the observed configuration by starting with a multi-resonant chain and introducing dissipation. Overall, the information-rich Kepler-80 planets provide an important perspective into exoplanetary systems.

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