arXiv subjects

Mariangela Lisanti

Publications and source records attributed to Mariangela Lisanti.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Using Strong Lensing to Detect Subhalos with Steep Inner Density Profiles

The inner region of a subhalo's density distribution is particularly sensitive to dark matter microphysics, with alternative dark matter models leading to both cored and steeply-rising inner density profiles. This work investigates how the lensing signature and detectability of dark matter subhalos in mock HST-, Euclid-, and JWST-like strong lensing observations depend on the subhalo's radial density profile, especially with regards to the inner power-law slope, $β$. We demonstrate that the minimum subhalo mass detectable along the Einstein ring of a system is strongly dependent on $β$. In particular, we show that subhalos with $β= 2.2$ can be detected down to masses over an order-of-magnitude lower than their Navarro-Frenk-White (NFW) counterparts with $β= 1$. Importantly, we find that the detectability of subhalos with steep inner profiles is minimally affected by increasing the complexity of the main lens galaxy's mass model. This is a notable characteristic of these subhalos, as those with NFW or shallower profiles become essentially undetectable when multipole perturbations are added to the lens model. The results of this work highlight how the underlying dark matter physics can significantly impact the expected number of subhalo detections from strong gravitational lensing observations. This is important for testing Cold Dark Matter against alternative models, such as Self-Interacting Dark Matter, that predict a diverse range of subhalo inner density profiles.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

Ubiquitous Corotation of Dark Matter Halos: Implications for Direct Detection

Cosmological simulations have recently begun to quantify the halo-to-halo variance in the phase-space distribution of dark matter around the Sun. We use a sample of nearly one hundred Milky Way-like galaxies from the TNG50 simulation to determine what aspects of this variance control the predictions for dark matter direct detection. Contrary to the isotropy assumed in the standard halo model, we find the dark matter median azimuthal velocity is nonzero and preferentially corotating, i.e., in the direction of the baryonic disk's rotation, ranging from 6-70 km/s (16th-84th percentile). This corotation suppresses predicted scattering rates in laboratory experiments searching for dark matter lighter than 50 GeV and significantly affects the expected daily modulation amplitude for directional detectors. In particular, this induces a 21% uncertainty on the upper limit of the dark matter-nucleon interaction cross section at peak sensitivity for a typical isotropic ton-scale experiment. This uncertainty is not irreducible, however: it is strongly correlated with the rotational velocity. If studies of the Milky Way's formation history determine the rotation speed, this astrophysical uncertainty is reduced to 7%.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2026

Non-linear Evolution of Dark Plasma Subhalos

Dark matter that self interacts through long-range forces exhibits coherent, collective effects that are absent in short-range interactions. In the case where dark matter interacts through a hidden-photon mediator, its dynamics closely resemble those of Standard Model plasmas. In such models, various astrophysical environments, including cluster collisions and subhalos orbiting their host halo, are susceptible to plasma instabilities: processes that modify the dark matter velocity distribution and lead to exponential growth of dark electromagnetic fields. In this paper, we present the first study of the non-linear evolution of electrostatic instabilities in dark matter subhalos orbiting within the Milky Way potential using a suite of particle-in-cell simulations. We find that the growth and saturation of these instabilities produce substantial turbulent heating and mass loss, with an efficiency that depends sensitively on subhalo mass and orbital eccentricity. For highly eccentric orbits, plasma heating can reduce the initial mass of a $10^7$ ($10^9$) $\text{M}_\odot$ subhalo by as much as $\sim 97\%$ ($\sim 84\%$) soon after first pericenter. Plasma-induced heating and stripping may therefore leave observable signatures in the Milky Way subhalo population, including a suppression of the low-mass subhalo mass function.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

Semi-analytic Inference of Satellite Densities in the Cold Dark Matter Model Part I. Comparison to Ultra-faint Dwarf Kinematics

Ultra-faint dwarf galaxies are critical testing grounds for probing the limits of galaxy formation in the cold dark matter (CDM) paradigm. Employing a semi-analytic cosmological satellite generator that captures the expected CDM halo population, we estimate Milky Way dwarf density profiles through two methods: a kinematic approach using stellar velocity dispersions and a separate method based on dwarf stellar masses. The kinematic approach yields a larger diversity in central dark matter densities than expected from the CDM population, as inferred from the stellar-to-halo mass relation, with compact ultra-faints appearing overdense and larger systems appearing underdense. For the ultra-faint dwarfs with at least 10 stars with spectroscopic measurements, this discrepancy persists at the ~2.4$σ$ level across all considered systematic variations on the semi-analytic modeling. Our framework introduces a novel, robust procedure for testing the consistency of the observed population of Milky Way satellites with cosmological expectations. As future surveys discover new dwarf satellites and refine stellar velocity measurements, updating this analysis will provide an increasingly stringent test of the CDM paradigm.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2026

Semi-analytic Inference of Satellite Densities in the Cold Dark Matter Model Part II. Implications for Dark Matter Indirect Detection Constraints

Dwarf galaxies provide excellent targets to search for signals of dark matter annihilation or decay. Using a calibrated semi-analytic model and the latest stellar kinematic data (presented in Part I), this paper updates the astrophysical J-factors for the Milky Way's dwarf spheroidal galaxies. We infer the probability distributions for the J-factors of 39 dwarfs by conditioning a population of subhalos, generated with the SatGen semi-analytic satellite model, on either a dwarf's kinematically determined dynamical mass or its stellar mass. We also compute the J-factors using the Jeans equation with updated stellar kinematics and priors that incorporate varying degrees of SatGen information. We use the computed J-factors to recast existing limits from Fermi-LAT data on the annihilation cross section. Our main result is that variations in the J-factors computed using the Jeans analysis introduce a factor of 2-4 uncertainty into the inferred limits on the cross section. We argue that a cosmologically informed prior is a motivated choice that excludes thermal relic annihilation cross sections to $b\bar{b}$ below about 70 GeV. For comparison, the more commonly used priors, which can lead to unphysical halo parameters, exclude masses below 130 GeV at 95% confidence level. We also show that the highest-J-factor dwarfs are spatially extended, approximately one degree on the sky, which challenges the validity of the point-source approximation adopted in many analyses of Fermi data. Finally, based on the semi-analytic model and the kinematic data, the highest J-factor halos have already been discovered, suggesting future ultra-faint discoveries are unlikely to substantially strengthen limits on annihilating dark matter.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

How to Build an Empirical Speed Distribution for Dark Matter in the Solar Neighborhood

The dark matter flux in a direct detection experiment depends on its local speed distribution. This distribution has been inferred from simulations of Milky Way-like galaxies, but such models serve only as proxies, given that no simulation directly captures the detailed evolution of our own Galaxy. This motivates alternative approaches that obtain this distribution directly from observations. In this work, we utilize 98 Milky Way analogues from the TNG50 simulation to develop and validate a procedure for inferring the dark matter speed distribution using the kinematics of nearby stars. We find that the dark matter that originated from old mergers, plus that from recent nonluminous accretions, is well described by a Maxwell-Boltzmann speed distribution centered at the local standard-of-rest velocity. Meanwhile, recently accreted dark matter from massive mergers has speeds that can be traced from the associated stellar debris of these events. The stellar populations systematically underestimate the velocity dispersion of their dark matter counterparts, but a simple kinematic boost brings the two into good alignment. Using the TNG50 host galaxies, we demonstrate that combining these two contributions provides an accurate reconstruction of the local dark matter speeds. As an application of the procedure to our own Galaxy, we utilize stellar kinematic data from Gaia to quantify how the dark matter remnants from the Milky Way's last major merger impact its speed distribution in the solar neighborhood.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2026

Mergers Matter: Gravothermal Collapse in Dwarf Halos with Self-Interacting Dark Matter

Self-Interacting Dark Matter (SIDM) models with large cross sections at relative velocities below $\sim100\,{\rm km \, s}^{-1}$ can be tested with dwarf galaxy observations. We analyze six dark-matter-only zoom-in $\sim10^{10}\,{\rm M}_\odot$ halos with diverse assembly histories, adopting a cross section over mass of $σ/m = 70\,cm^2 \, g^{-1}$. We find that mergers inject orbital kinetic energy into the halo, altering the heat transport and the gravothermal evolution of the core. Three of the six halos -- those with the most quiescent merger histories -- show clear signs of core collapse in these simulations. Halos with sustained mergers do not collapse. Furthermore, merger-induced heat transport drives two non-collapsing halos to central densities well below the predictions of the gravothermal fluid model. These findings suggest a novel mechanism for producing dark-matter-deficient galaxies and expanding the diversity of rotation curves beyond what halo concentration alone predicts. Merger histories are thus essential for understanding central density distributions of dwarf galaxy halos in SIDM.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2026

The DREAMS Project: Disentangling the Impact of Halo-to-Halo Variance and Baryonic Feedback on Milky Way Dark Matter Density Profiles

In this work, we utilize a new suite of Milky Way-mass halos from the DREAMS Project, simulated with Cold Dark Matter (CDM), to quantify the influence of baryon feedback and intrinsic halo-to-halo variance on dark matter density profiles. Our suite of 1024 halos varies over supernova and black hole feedback parameters from the IllustrisTNG model, as well as variations in two cosmological parameters. We find that, for the DREAMS parameter variations, Milky Way-mass dark matter density profiles in the IllustrisTNG model are largely insensitive to astrophysics and cosmology variations, with the dominant source of scatter instead arising from halo-to-halo variance. However, most of the (comparatively minor) feedback-driven variations come from the changes to supernova prescriptions. By comparing to dark matter-only simulations, we find that the strongest supernova wind energies are so effective at preventing galaxy formation that the halos are nearly entirely collisionless dark matter. Finally, regardless of physics variation, all the DREAMS halos are roughly consistent with a halo contracting adiabatically from the presence of baryons, unlike models that have bursty stellar feedback. This work represents a step toward assessing the uncertainty in Milky Way dark matter profiles, with direct implications for dark matter searches where systematic uncertainty in the density profile remains a major challenge.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2026

Dark Matter Velocity Distributions for Direct Detection: Astrophysical Uncertainties are Smaller Than They Appear

The sensitivity of direct detection experiments depends on the phase-space distribution of dark matter near the Sun, which can be modeled theoretically using cosmological hydrodynamical simulations of Milky Way-like galaxies. However, capturing the halo-to-halo variation in the local dark matter speeds -- a necessary step for quantifying the astrophysical uncertainties that feed into experimental results -- requires a sufficiently large sample of simulated galaxies, which has been a challenge. In this Letter, we quantify this variation with nearly 100 Milky Way-like galaxies from the TNG50 simulation, the largest sample to date at this resolution. Moreover, we introduce a novel phase-space scaling procedure that endows every system with a reference frame that accurately reproduces the local standard-of-rest speed of our Galaxy, providing a principled way of extrapolating the simulation results to real-world data. The ensemble of predicted speed distributions is well characterized by the standard halo model, a Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution truncated at the escape speed, though the individual distributions can deviate from it, especially at high speeds. The dark matter-nucleon cross section limits placed by these speed distributions vary by ~60% about the median. This places the 1-sigma astrophysical uncertainty at or below the level of the systematic uncertainty of current ton-scale detectors, even down to the energy threshold. The predicted uncertainty remains unchanged when subselecting on those TNG50 galaxies with merger histories similar to the Milky Way. Tabulated speed distributions, as well as Maxwell-Boltzmann fits, are provided for use in computing direct detection bounds or projecting sensitivities.

hep-ph↗

arXiv2026

Cosmological Simulations of Stellar Halos with Gaia Sausage-Enceladus Analogues: Two Sausages, One Bun?

Observations of the Milky Way's stellar halo find that it is predominantly comprised of a radially biased population of stars, dubbed the Gaia Sausage--Enceladus, or GSE. These stars are thought to be debris from dwarf galaxy accretion early in the Milky Way's history. Though typically considered to be from a single merger, it is possible that the GSE debris has multiple sources. To investigate this possibility, we use the TNG50 simulation to identify stellar accretion histories in 98 Milky Way analogues -- the largest sample for which such an identification has been performed -- and find GSE-like debris in 32, with two-merger GSEs accounting for a third of these cases. Distinguishing single-merger GSEs from two-merger GSEs is difficult in common kinematic spaces, but differences are more evident through chemical abundances and star formation histories. This is because single-merger GSEs are typically accreted more recently than the galaxies in two-merger GSEs: the median infall times (with 16th and 84th percentiles) are $5.9^{+3.3}_{-2.0}$ and $10.7^{+1.2}_{-3.7}$ Gyr ago for single- and two-merger scenarios, respectively. The systematic shifts in abundances and ages that occur as a result suggest that efforts in modeling these aspects of the stellar halo prove ever-important in understanding its assembly.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2026

Probing Atomic Dark Matter with Stellar Streams in Milky Way-Mass Galaxies

We present the first detailed analysis of the effects of dissipative dark matter on stellar streams. As a concrete example, we generate a cosmological hydrodynamic zoom-in simulation of a Milky Way-mass galaxy, assuming that the dark matter consists of Cold Dark Matter (CDM) with a sub-component ($\sim6\%$) of Atomic Dark Matter (ADM). The ADM subcomponent behaves as collisional, efficiently dissipative gas and allows for the formation of dense compact objects that enhance the central density of satellite galaxies, making them more resistant to tidal disruption. We show that stellar streams with stellar mass $M_{\rm{tot}, \star} \gtrsim 10^{5.5} \ \text{M}_\odot$ form later and exhibit prolonged star formation throughout their evolution, as compared to their CDM counterparts. Changes to star formation history are reflected on the chemical tracks of the stellar stream stars, where the youngest have enhanced [Fe/H] and [Mg/Fe] in the presence of ADM. Furthermore, a population of low-mass satellites with high ADM mass fractions is identified at low pericenter distances, which may affect the population of streams at $M_{\rm{tot}, \star} \lesssim 10^{5.5} \ \text{M}_\odot$. The results of this study should generalize to other dark matter models that lead to inner-density enhancements in satellites, such as elastic self-interacting dark matter in the gravothermal collapse regime.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

First-Principles Formalism for Simulating Self-Interacting Dark Matter

It is plausible that the dark matter particles have non-gravitational interactions among themselves. If such self interactions are large enough, they could leave an imprint on the morphology of galaxies. These effects can be studied with numerical simulations, which serve as the primary tool to predict the non-linear evolution of galactic structure. A standard assumption is that the course-grained phase-space distribution of the macroscopic simulation particles follows the same evolution equation as that of the fundamental dark matter particles. This Letter tests this assumption directly for the case of frequent dark matter scatterings, demonstrating that this is not generically true. Specifically, we develop a first-principles map from a microscopic particle physics description of self-interacting dark matter to a representation of macroscopic simulation particles for theories in the short-mean-free-path regime. Using this procedure, we show the emergence of an effective force between the simulation particles and derive their interaction cross section, which depends on the one from fundamental particle physics. This work provides the first explicit map from particle physics to simulation, which will facilitate exploring the phenomenological implications for galactic dynamics.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

The DREAMS Project: Disentangling the Impact of Halo-to-Halo Variance and Baryonic Feedback on Milky Way Dark Matter Speed Distributions

Direct detection experiments require information about the local dark matter speed distribution to produce constraints on dark matter candidates, or infer their properties in the event of a discovery. In this paper, we analyze how the uncertainty in the dark matter speed distribution near the Sun is affected by baryonic feedback, halo-to-halo variance, and halo mass. To do so, we harness the statistical power of the new DREAMS Cold Dark Matter simulation suite, which is comprised of 1024 zoom-in Milky Way-mass halos with varied initial conditions as well as cosmological and astrophysical parameters. Applying a normalizing flows emulator to these simulations, we find that the uncertainty in the local DM speed distribution is dominated by halo-to-halo variance and, to a lesser extent, uncertainty in host halo mass. Uncertainties in supernova and black hole feedback (from the IllustrisTNG model in this case) are negligible in comparison. Using the DREAMS suite, we present a state-of-the-art prediction for the DM speed distribution in the Milky Way. Although the Standard Halo Model is contained within the uncertainty of this prediction, individual galaxies may have distributions that differ from it. Lastly, we apply our DREAMS results to the XENON1T experiment and demonstrate that the astrophysical uncertainties are comparable to the experimental ones, solidifying previous results in the literature obtained with a smaller sample of simulated Milky Way-mass halos.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

The DREAMS Project: Disentangling the Impact of Halo-to-Halo Variance and Baryonic Feedback on Milky Way Satellite Galaxies

We analyze the properties of satellite galaxies around 1,024 Milky Way-mass hosts from the DREAMS Project, simulated within a $Λ$CDM cosmology. Utilizing the TNG galaxy-formation model, the DREAMS simulations incorporate both baryonic physics and cosmological uncertainties for a large sample of galaxies with diverse environments and formation histories. We investigate the relative impact of the physical uncertainty from the galaxy-formation model on predicted satellite properties using four metrics: the satellite stellar mass function, radial distribution, inner slope of dark matter density profile, and stellar half-light radius. We compare these predictions to observations from the SAGA Survey and the DREAMS N-body simulations and find that uncertainties from baryonic physics modeling are subdominant to the scatter arising from halo-to-halo variance. Where baryonic modeling does affect satellites, the supernova wind energy has the largest effect on the satellite properties that we investigate. Specifically, increased supernova wind energy suppresses the stellar mass of satellites and results in more extended stellar half-light radii. The adopted wind speed has only a minor impact, and other astrophysical and cosmological parameters show no measurable effect. Our findings highlight the robustness of satellite properties against uncertainties in baryonic physics modeling.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

The DREAMS Project: A New Suite of 1,024 Simulations to Contextualize the Milky Way and Assess Physics Uncertainties

We introduce a new suite of 1,024 cosmological and hydrodynamical zoom-in simulations of Milky Way-mass halos, run with Cold Dark Matter, as part of the DREAMS Project. Each simulation in the suite has a unique set of initial conditions and combination of cosmological and astrophysical parameters. The suite is designed to quantify theoretical uncertainties from halo-to-halo variance, as well as stellar and black hole feedback. We develop a novel weighting scheme that prioritizes regions of the input parameter space, yielding galaxies consistent with the observed present-day stellar mass--halo mass relation. The resulting galaxy population exhibits a wide diversity in structural properties that encompasses those of the actual Milky Way, providing a powerful statistical sample for galactic archaeology. To demonstrate the suite's scientific utility, we investigate the connection between a galaxy's merger history, focusing on Gaia-Sausage-Enceladus~(GSE) analogs, and its present-day properties. We find that galaxies with a GSE analog have lower star formation rates, more compact disks, and more spherical stellar halos. Crucially, significant halo-to-halo scatter remains, demonstrating that matching more than the most significant events in the Milky Way's past is necessary to recover its present-day properties. Our results highlight the necessity for large statistical samples to disentangle the stochastic nature of galaxy formation and robustly model the Milky Way's unique history.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

LINX: A Fast, Differentiable, and Extensible Big Bang Nucleosynthesis Package

We introduce LINX (Light Isotope Nucleosynthesis with JAX), a new differentiable public Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN) code designed for fast parameter estimation. By leveraging JAX, LINX achieves both speed and differentiability, enabling the use of Bayesian inference, including gradient-based methods. We discuss the formalism used in LINX for rapid primordial elemental abundance predictions and give examples of how LINX can be used. When combined with differentiable Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) power spectrum emulators, LINX can be used for joint CMB and BBN analyses without requiring extensive computational resources, including on personal hardware.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

Cosmological Parameter Estimation with a Joint-Likelihood Analysis of the Cosmic Microwave Background and Big Bang Nucleosynthesis

We present the first joint-likelihood analysis of Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN) and Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) data. Bayesian inference is performed on the baryon abundance and the effective number of neutrino species, $N_{\rm eff}$, using a CMB Boltzmann solver in combination with LINX, a new flexible and efficient BBN code. We marginalize over Planck nuisance parameters and nuclear rates to find $N_{\rm{eff}} = 3.08_{-0.13}^{+0.13},\,2.94 _{-0.16}^{+0.16},$ or $2.98_{-0.13}^{+0.14}$, for three separate reaction networks. This framework enables robust testing of the Lambda Cold Dark Matter paradigm and its variants with CMB and BBN data.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

How Many Bursts Does it Take to Form a Core at the Center of a Galaxy?

We present a novel method for systematically assessing the impact of central potential fluctuations associated with bursty outflows on the structure of dark matter halos for classical and ultra-faint dwarf galaxies. Specifically, we use dark-matter-only simulations augmented with a manually-added massive particle that modifies the central potential and approximately accounts for a centrally-concentrated baryonic component. This approach enables precise control over the magnitude, frequency, and timing of rapid outflow events. We demonstrate that this method can reproduce the established result of core formation for systems that undergo multiple episodes of bursty outflows. In contrast, we also find that equivalent models that involve only a single (or small number of) burst episodes do not form cores with the same efficacy. This is important because many UFDs in the Local Universe are observed to have tightly constrained star formation histories that are best described by a single, early burst of star formation. Using a suite of cosmological, zoom-in simulations, we identify the regimes in which single bursts can and cannot form a cored density profile. Our results suggest that it may be difficult to form cores in UFD-mass systems with a single, early burst regardless of its magnitude.

astro-ph.GA↗