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Marie-Christine Duker

Publications and source records attributed to Marie-Christine Duker.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

On extremes for Gaussian subordination

This paper investigates extreme value theory for processes obtained by applying transformations to stationary Gaussian processes, also called subordinated Gaussian processes. The main contributions are as follows. First, we refine the method of \cite{sly2008nonstandard} to allow the covariance of the underlying Gaussian process to decay more slowly than any polynomial rate, nearly matching Berman's condition. Second, we extend the theory to a multivariate setting, where both the subordinated process and the underlying Gaussian process may be vector-valued, and the transformation is finite-dimensional. In particular, we establish the weak convergence of a point process constructed from the subordinated Gaussian process, from which a multivariate extreme value limit theorem follows. A key observation that facilitates our analysis, and may be of independent interest, is the following: any bivariate random vector derived from transformations of two jointly Gaussian vectors with a non-unity canonical correlation always remains extremally independent. This observation also motivates us to introduce and discuss a notion we call $m$-extremal-dependence, which extends the classical concept of $m$-dependence. Moreover, we relax the restriction to finite-dimensional transforms, extending the results to infinite-dimensional settings via an approximation argument. As an illustration, we establish a limit theorem for a multivariate moving maxima process driven by regularly varying innovations that arise from subordinated Gaussian processes with potentially long memory.

math.PR

Clustering Future Scenarios Based on Predicted Range Maps

Predictions of biodiversity trajectories under climate change are crucial in order to act effectively in maintaining the diversity of species. In many ecological applications, future predictions are made under various global warming scenarios as described by a range of different climate models. The outputs of these various predictions call for a reliable interpretation. We propose a interpretable and flexible two step methodology to measure the similarity between predicted species range maps and cluster the future scenario predictions utilizing a spectral clustering technique. We find that clustering based on ecological impact (predicted species range maps) is mainly driven by the amount of warming. We contrast this with clustering based only on predicted climate features, which is driven mainly by climate models. The differences between these clusterings illustrate that it is crucial to incorporate ecological information to understand the relevant differences between climate models. The findings of this work can be used to better synthesize forecasts of biodiversity loss under the wide spectrum of results that emerge when considering potential future biodiversity loss.

q-bio.QM