Marie-Pierre Sylvestre

arXiv2026

Introducing Feature-Based Trajectory Clustering, a clustering algorithm for longitudinal data

We present a new algorithm for clustering longitudinal data. Data of this type can be conceptualized as consisting of individuals and, for each such individual, observations of a time-dependent variable made at various times. Generically, the specific way in which this variable evolves with time is different from one individual to the next. However, there may also be commonalities; specific characteristic features of the time evolution shared by many individuals. The purpose of the method we put forward is to find clusters of individual whose underlying time-dependent variables share such characteristic features. This is done in two steps. The first step identifies each individual to a point in Euclidean space whose coordinates are determined by specific mathematical formulae meant to capture a variety of characteristic features. The second step finds the clusters by applying the Spectral Clustering algorithm to the resulting point cloud.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Adaptive sparsening and smoothing of the treatment model for longitudinal causal inference using outcome-adaptive LASSO and marginal fused LASSO

Causal variable selection in time-varying treatment settings is challenging due to evolving confounding effects. Existing methods mainly focus on time-fixed exposures and are not directly applicable to time-varying scenarios. We propose a novel two-step procedure for variable selection when modeling the treatment probability at each time point. We first introduce a novel approach to longitudinal confounder selection using a Longitudinal Outcome Adaptive LASSO (LOAL) that will data-adaptively select covariates with theoretical justification of variance reduction of the estimator of the causal effect. We then propose an Adaptive Fused LASSO that can collapse treatment model parameters over time points with the goal of simplifying the models in order to improve the efficiency of the estimator while minimizing model misspecification bias compared with naive pooled logistic regression models. Our simulation studies highlight the need for and usefulness of the proposed approach in practice. We implemented our method on data from the Nicotine Dependence in Teens study to estimate the effect of the timing of alcohol initiation during adolescence on depressive symptoms in early adulthood.

stat.ME↗