arXiv subjects
Publications and source records attributed to Mariia Nosova.
The probabilistic explanation of the direct and reverse cohort component population projection methods is presented. The main characteristics determining the probability distribution of the values for the direct and reverse component methods are found.
Queuing systems with an unlimited number of devices with an incoming nonstationary Poisson flow and a random flow controlled by a Markov chain are investigated. The inexpediency of ap-proximation of the birth process by Poisson flows in long-term forecasting is shown.
In this article, a new mathematical model of human population growth as an autonomous non-Markov queuing system with an unlimited number of servers and two types of applications is proposed. The research of this system was carried out a virtual phase method and a modified method of asymptotic analysis of a stochastic age-specific density for a number of applications served in the system at time t and was proofed that the asymptotic distribution is Gaussian. The main probabilistic characteristics of this distribution are found. The mathematical model and methods of its research can be applied to the analysis of the population growth both in a single country and around the world.