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Marina Cortês

Publications and source records attributed to Marina Cortês.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Curvaton in light of the ACT results

The latest results from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope Collaboration have moved the preferred perturbation spectral index $n_{\rm s}$ closer towards one. We reanalyse constraints on the simplest version of the curvaton model, using $n_{\rm s}$ and the tensor-to-scalar ratio $r$. We show that in the massless curvaton case the model gives the same locus of $n_{\rm s}$-$r$ predictions as the power-law model $V(ϕ) \propto ϕ^p$, but with a different and more elegant physical interpretation. The model gives an excellent account of current observational data, both in the regime where the curvaton dominates the observed perturbations and with an admixture of inflaton-originated perturbations of up to about one-third of the total. Addition of the newest South Pole Telescope SPT-3G D1 dataset maintains this conclusion in favor of the curvaton model. Forthcoming large-scale structure surveys, such as that of the recently-launched SPHEREx probe, could discriminate between curvaton and single-field inflation models using the bispectrum.

astro-ph.CO↗

The Cosmological Parameters (2025)

This is a review article for The Review of Particle Physics 2026 (aka the Particle Data Book), appearing as Chapter 25. It forms a compact review of knowledge of the cosmological parameters near the end of 2025. Topics included are Parametrizing the Universe; Extensions to the standard model; Probes; Bringing observations together; Outlook for the future.

astro-ph.CO↗

On DESI's DR2 exclusion of $Λ$CDM

The DESI collaboration, combining their Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) data with cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy and supernovae data, have found significant indication against the $Λ$CDM cosmology. This can also be interpreted as the significance of the detection of the $w_a$ parameter that measures variation of the dark energy equation of state. DESI's DR2 article quotes exclusion of $Λ$CDM for combinations of BAO and CMB data with each of three different and overlapping supernovae compilations (at 2.8-sigma for Pantheon+, 3.8-sigma for Union3, and 4.2-sigma for DESY5). We show that one can neither choose amongst nor average over these three different significances. We demonstrate how a principled statistical combination yields a combined exclusion significance of 3.1-sigma. Further we argue that, faced with these competing significances, the most secure inference from the DESI DR2 results is the 3.1-sigma level exclusion of $Λ$CDM obtained from combining DESI+CMB alone, omitting supernovae.

astro-ph.CO↗

The TAP equation: evaluating combinatorial innovation in Biocosmology

We investigate solutions to the TAP equation, a phenomenological implementation of the Theory of the Adjacent Possible. Several implementations of TAP are studied, with potential applications in a range of topics including economics, social sciences, environmental change, evolutionary biological systems, and the nature of physical laws. The generic behaviour is an extended plateau followed by a sharp explosive divergence. We find accurate analytic approximations for the blow-up time that we validate against numerical simulations, and explore the properties of the equation in the vicinity of equilibrium between innovation and extinction. A particular variant, the two-scale TAP model, replaces the initial plateau with a phase of exponential growth, a widening of the TAP equation phenomenology that may enable it to be applied in a wider range of contexts.

q-bio.PE↗

A First-Principles Based Risk Assessment Framework and the IEEE P3396 Standard

Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) is enabling unprecedented automation in content creation and decision support, but it also raises novel risks. This paper presents a first-principles risk assessment framework underlying the IEEE P3396 Recommended Practice for AI Risk, Safety, Trustworthiness, and Responsibility. We distinguish between process risks (risks arising from how AI systems are built or operated) and outcome risks (risks manifest in the AI system's outputs and their real-world effects), arguing that generative AI governance should prioritize outcome risks. Central to our approach is an information-centric ontology that classifies AI-generated outputs into four fundamental categories: (1) Perception-level information, (2) Knowledge-level information, (3) Decision/Action plan information, and (4) Control tokens (access or resource directives). This classification allows systematic identification of harms and more precise attribution of responsibility to stakeholders (developers, deployers, users, regulators) based on the nature of the information produced. We illustrate how each information type entails distinct outcome risks (e.g. deception, misinformation, unsafe recommendations, security breaches) and requires tailored risk metrics and mitigations. By grounding the framework in the essence of information, human agency, and cognition, we align risk evaluation with how AI outputs influence human understanding and action. The result is a principled approach to AI risk that supports clear accountability and targeted safeguards, in contrast to broad application-based risk categorizations. We include example tables mapping information types to risks and responsibilities. This work aims to inform the IEEE P3396 Recommended Practice and broader AI governance with a rigorous, first-principles foundation for assessing generative AI risks while enabling responsible innovation.

cs.CY↗

Interpreting DESI's evidence for evolving dark energy

The latest results on baryon acoustic oscillations from DESI (Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument), when combined with cosmic microwave background and supernova data, show indications of a deviation from a cosmological constant in favour of evolving dark energy. Use of a pivot scale for the equation of state $w$ shows that this evidence is concentrated in the derivative of $w$ rather than its mean offset from $-1$, indicating a new cosmic coincidence where the mean equation of state matches that of the $Λ$CDM model precisely in the region probed by the observations. An equivalent way to express this is to say that the dark energy hits the maximum value that it will ever achieve within the observed window. We argue that conclusions on dark energy evolution are strongly driven by the assumed parameter priors and that this coincidence, which we are naming the PhantomX coincidence (where X stands for crossing), may be a signature of this.

astro-ph.CO↗

AI Horizon Scanning -- White Paper p3395, IEEE-SA. Part III: Technology Watch: a selection of key developments, emerging technologies, and industry trends in Artificial Intelligence

Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies are in a phase of unprecedented rapid development following the landmark release of Chat-GPT, which brought the phenomenon to wide public attention. As the deployment of AI products rises geometrically, considerable attention is being given to the threats and opportunities that AI technologies offer, and to the need for regulatory and standards initiatives to ensure that use of the technology aligns with societal needs and generates broad benefits while mitigating risks and threats. This manuscript is the third of a series of White Papers informing the development of IEEE-SA's p3995 {\it `Standard for the Implementation of Safeguards, Controls, and Preventive Techniques for Artificial Intelligence Models'} \cite{P3395}, Chair Marina Cortês. This part focuses on assessing calmly and objectively, as far as is possible, the current state of Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology development and identifying predominant trends, prospects, and ensuing risks. It necessarily forms a snapshot of the current instant of a rapidly-evolving landscape, with new products and innovations emerging continuously. While our main focus is on software and hardware developments and their corporate context, we also briefly review progress on robotics within the AI context and describe some implications of the substantial and growing AI energy demand.

cs.CY↗

Biocosmology: Towards the birth of a new science

Cosmologists wish to explain how our Universe, in all its complexity, could ever have come about. For that, we assess the number of states in our Universe now. This plays the role of entropy in thermodynamics of the Universe, and reveals the magnitude of the problem of initial conditions to be solved. The usual budgeting accounts for gravity, thermal motions, and finally the vacuum energy whose entropy, given by the Bekenstein bound, dominates the entropy budget today. There is however one number which we have not accounted for: the number of states in our complex biosphere. What is the entropy of life and is it sizeable enough to need to be accounted for at the Big Bang? Building on emerging ideas within theoretical biology, we show that the configuration space of living systems, unlike that of their fundamental physics counterparts, can grow rapidly in response to emerging biological complexity. A model for this expansion is provided through combinatorial innovation by the Theory of the Adjacent Possible (TAP) and its corresponding TAP equation, whose solutions we investigate, confirming the possibility of rapid state-pace growth. While the results of this work remain far from being firmly established, the evidence we provide is many-fold and strong. The implications are far-reaching, and open a variety of lines for future investigation, a new scientific field we term biocosmology. In particular the relationship between the information content in life and the information content in the Universe may need to be rebuilt from scratch.

astro-ph.CO↗

AI Horizon Scanning, White Paper p3395, IEEE-SA. Part I: Areas of Attention

Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) models may carry societal transformation to an extent demanding a delicate balance between opportunity and risk. This manuscript is the first of a series of White Papers informing the development of IEEE-SA's p3995: `Standard for the Implementation of Safeguards, Controls, and Preventive Techniques for Artificial Intelligence (AI) Models', Chair: Marina Cortês (https://standards.ieee.org/ieee/3395/11378/). In this first horizon-scanning we identify key attention areas for standards activities in AI. We examine different principles for regulatory efforts, and review notions of accountability, privacy, data rights and mis-use. As a safeguards standard we devote significant attention to the stability of global infrastructures and consider a possible overdependence on cloud computing that may result from densely coupled AI components. We review the recent cascade-failure-like Crowdstrike event in July 2024, as an illustration of potential impacts on critical infrastructures from AI-induced incidents in the (near) future. It is the first of a set of articles intended as White Papers informing the audience on the standard development. Upcoming articles will focus on regulatory initiatives, technology evolution and the role of AI in specific domains.

cs.CY↗

Hawking evaporation and the Landauer Principle

We show that Hawking black-hole evaporation saturates the Landauer Principle of information thermodynamics. Our result implies that information loss experienced by a black hole during Hawking evaporation takes place as efficiently as possible. We also extend the analysis to the case of Barrow entropy as a phenomenological realization of a fractal event horizon, where the Landauer Principle informs amongst different options for the black hole temperature. To our knowledge, this work is the first identification of the two results as expressions of the same process.

gr-qc↗

On dataset tensions and signatures of new cosmological physics

Can new cosmic physics be uncovered through tensions amongst datasets? Tensions in parameter determinations amongst different types of cosmological observation, especially the `Hubble tension' between probes of the expansion rate, have been invoked as possible indicators of new physics, requiring extension of the $Λ$CDM paradigm to resolve. Within a fully Bayesian framework, we show that the standard tension metric gives only part of the updating of model probabilities, supplying a data co-dependence term that must be combined with the Bayes factors of individual datasets. This shows that, on its own, a reduction of dataset tension under an extension to $Λ$CDM is insufficient to demonstrate that the extended model is favoured. Any analysis that claims evidence for new physics {\it solely} on the basis of alleviating dataset tensions should be considered incomplete and suspect. We describe the implications of our results for the interpretation of the Hubble tension.

astro-ph.CO↗

Higher Dimensional Energetic Causal Sets

The energetic causal set (ECS) program of Cortês and Smolin, whose distinguishing feature is the foundational time irreversibility of the evolution equations of quantum gravity, was initiated ten years ago. The model showed the emergence of a time-reversible phase from the time-irreversible foundational regime, but originally only had one spatial dimension. The extension to two and more spatial dimensions has posed a substantial challenge, the higher-dimensional set of solutions having measure zero (requiring infinitely-specified initial conditions). This challenge is overcome here with the extension of the ECS to 2+1 dimensions, invoking a finite interaction cross-section to determine generation of new events and including an adjustable fundamental stochasticity. As in the 1+1 dimensional case, we successfully observe a phase transition into a time-symmetric phase, here through the emergence of crystal-like structures. Due to the irreversible evolution we also witness the discrete dynamical systems behaviour of the 1d+1 case explored in later articles of the ECS program, in which the model is captured in and out of the limit cycles which here take the form of lattice crystals. In a companion paper we carry out a detailed parameter investigation and study the causal network underlying the set, explaining the emergence of the time-symmetric phase. In a final section we propose a view of science as a (potential) unifier of threads, and present one such perspective unifying aspects of quantum gravity, biology, and artificial general intelligence (AGI).

gr-qc↗

Biocosmology: Biology from a cosmological perspective

The Universe contains everything that exists, including life. And all that exists, including life, obeys universal physical laws. Do those laws then give adequate foundations for a complete explanation of biological phenomena? We discuss whether and how cosmology and physics must be modified to be able to address certain questions which arise at their intersection with biology. We show that a universe that contains life, in the form it has on Earth, is in a certain sense radically non-ergodic, in that the vast majority of possible organisms will never be realized. We argue from this that complete explanations in cosmology require a mixture of reductionist and functional explanations.

physics.hist-ph↗

Realism and Causality II: Retrocausality in Energetic Causal Sets

We describe a new form of retrocausality, which is found in the behaviour of a class of causal set theories, called energetic causal sets (ECS). These are discrete sets of events, connected by causal relations. They have three orders: (1) a birth order, which is the order in which events are generated; this is a total order which is the true causal order, (2) a dynamical partial order, which prescribes the flows of energy and momentum amongst events, (3) an emergent causal order, which is defined by the geometry of an emergent Minkowski spacetime, in which the events of the causal sets are embedded. However, the embedding of the events in the emergent Minkowski spacetime may preserve neither the true causal order in (1), nor correspond completely with the microscopic partial order in (2). We call this disordered causality, and we here demonstrate its occurrence in specific ECS models. This is the second in a series of papers centered around the question: Should we accept violations of causality as a lesser price to pay in order to keep realist formulations of quantum theory? We begin to address this in the first paper [1] and continue here by giving an explicit example of an ECS model in the classical regime, in which causality is disordered.

gr-qc↗

Realism and causality I: Pilot wave and retrocausal models as possible facilitators

Of all basic principles of classical physics, realism should arguably be the last to be given up when seeking a better interpretation of quantum mechanics. We examine the de Broglie-Bohm pilot wave theory as a well developed example of a realistic theory. We present three challenges to a naive reading of pilot-wave theory, each based on a system of several entangled particles. With the help of a coarse graining of pilot wave theory into a discrete system, we show how these challenges can be answered. However this comes with a cost. In the description of individual systems, particles appear to scatter off empty branches of the wave function as if they were particles, and conversely travel through particles as if they were waves. More generally, the "particles" of pilot wave theory are led by the guidance equation to move in ways no classical particle would, involving apparent violations of the principles of inertia and momentum conservation.We next argue that the aforementioned cost can be avoided within a retrocausal model. In the proposed version of the pilot wave theory, the particle is guided by a combination of advanced and retarded waves. The resulting account for quantum physics seems to have greater heuristic power, it demands less damage to intuition, and moreover provides some general hints regarding spacetime and causality. This is the first of two papers. In the second [1] we show that, in the context of an explicit model, retrocausality, with respect to an effective, emergent spacetime metric, can coexist with a strict irreversibility of causal processes.

quant-ph↗

A Zero-Parameter Extension of General Relativity with Varying Cosmological Constant

We provide a new extension of general relativity (GR) which has the remarkable property of being more constrained than GR plus a cosmological constant, having one less free parameter. This is implemented by allowing the cosmological constant to have a consistent space-time variation, through coding its dynamics in the torsion tensor. We demonstrate this mechanism by adding a `quasi-topological' term to the Einstein action, which naturally realizes a dynamical torsion with an automatic satisfaction of the Bianchi identities. Moreover, variation of the action with respect to this dynamical $Λ$ fixes it in terms of other variables, thus providing a scenario with less freedom than general relativity with a cosmological constant. Once matter is introduced, at least in the homogeneous and isotropic reduction, $Λ$ is uniquely determined by the field content of the model. We make an explicit construction using the Palatini formulation of GR and describe the striking properties of this new theory. We also highlight some possible extensions to the theory. A companion paper [1] explores the Friedmann--Robertson--Walker reduction for cosmology, and future work will study Solar System tests of the theory.

gr-qc↗

The cosmology of minimal varying Lambda theories

Inserting a varying Lambda in Einstein's field equations can be made consistent with the Bianchi identities by allowing for torsion, without the need to add scalar field degrees of freedom. In the minimal such theory, Lambda is totally free and undetermined by the field equations in the absence of matter. Inclusion of matter ties Lambda algebraically to it, at least when homogeneity and isotropy are assumed, i.e. when there is no Weyl curvature. We show that Lambda is proportional to the matter density, with a proportionality constant depending on the equation of state. Unfortunately, the proportionality constant becomes infinite for pure radiation, ruling out the minimal theory prima facie despite of its novel internal consistency. It is possible to generalize the theory still without the addition of kinetic terms, leading to a new algebraically-enforced proportionality between Lambda and the matter density. Lambda and radiation may now coexist in a form consistent with Big Bang Nucleosynthesis, though this places strict constraints on the single free parameter of the theory, $θ$. In the matter epoch Lambda behaves just like a dark matter component. Its density is proportional to the baryonic and/or dark matter, and its presence and gravitational effects would need to be included in accounting for the necessary dark matter in our Universe. This is a companion paper to Ref. [1] where the underlying gravitational theory is developed in detail.

gr-qc↗

Reversing the irreversible: from limit cycles to emergent time symmetry

In 1979 Penrose hypothesized that the arrows of time are explained by the hypothesis that the fundamental laws are time irreversible. That is, our reversible laws, such as the standard model and general relativity are effective, and emerge from an underlying fundamental theory which is time irreversible. In Cortês and Smolin (2014a, 2014b, 2016) we put forward a research program aiming at realizing just this. The aim is to find a fundamental description of physics above the planck scale, based on irreversible laws, from which will emerge the apparently reversible dynamics we observe on intermediate scales. Here we continue that program and note that a class of discrete dynamical systems are known to exhibit this very property: they have an underlying discrete irreversible evolution, but in the long term exhibit the properties of a time reversible system, in the form of limit cycles. We connect this to our original model proposal in Cortês and Smolin (2014a), and show that the behaviours obtained there can be explained in terms of the same phenomenon: the attraction of the system to a basin of limit cycles, where the dynamics appears to be time reversible. Further than that, we show that our original models exhibit the very same feature: the emergence of quasi-particle excitations obtained in the earlier work in the space-time description is an expression of the system's convergence to limit cycles when seen in the causal set description.

gr-qc↗