arXiv subjects

Marina Orio

Publications and source records attributed to Marina Orio.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

The powerful shocks in RS Oph: NuSTAR X-ray data and a complete review

In the 2021 outburst of RS Ophiuchi, the gamma- and the X-ray flux were measured quasi-simultaneously from day 1 after the optical peak, offering the first comprehensive view of shocks in a nova occurring in a symbiotic system. We present a previously unpublished observation done with NuSTAR in the 3-79 keV range, 9 days after maximum, and we review the complex history of the evidence of shocks in the previous outbursts of this nova in the light of the intensive X-ray monitoring of 2021. We find evidence that the shock causing the particle acceleration measured with the Cherenkov telescopes produced also the thermal flux detected in the 0.2-30 keV X-ray range, while the large gamma-ray flux observed with Fermi after about a day, is not consistent with the X-ray observations. We conclude that an initial, strong shock, with particle-particle loss timescale shorter than the timescale of particle acceleration at energy higher than a few GeV, occurred close to the red giant atmosphere,where either the X-rays' emitting volume was reduced by turbulence, or - perhaps less likely - the X-rays were completely absorbed by large column density near the giant and by the accretion wake along the line of sight. We compare RS Oph with other novae in long period systems with evolved companions,discussing how the shocks' phenomenology is a powerful tool to derive other physical parameters. Finally, we discuss predictions that in T CrB, expected to have a new outburst within the next few years, the shocks may not be as energetic as in RS Oph.

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arXiv2026

What determines the $γ$-ray luminosities of classical novae?

Classical novae in the Milky Way have now been well-established as high-energy GeV $γ$-ray sources. In novae with main-sequence companions, this emission is believed to result from shocks internal to the nova ejecta, as a later fast wind collides with an earlier slow outflow. To test this model and constrain the $γ$-ray production mechanism, we present a systematic study of a sample of recent Galactic novae, comparing their $γ$-ray properties ($γ$-ray luminosity and duration) with their outflow velocities, peak $V$-band magnitudes, and the decline times of their optical light curves ($t_2$). We uniformly estimate distances in a luminosity-independent manner, using spectroscopic reddening estimates combined with three-dimensional Galactic dust maps. Across our sample, $γ$-ray luminosities ($>$100 MeV) vary by three orders of magnitude, spanning $10^{34}-10^{37}$ erg s$^{-1}$. Novae with larger velocity of the fast outflow (or larger differential between the fast and slow outflow) have larger $γ$-ray luminosities, but are detectable for a shorter duration. The optical and $γ$-ray fluxes are correlated, consistent with substantial thermal emission in the optical from shock-heated gas. Across six novae with $γ$-ray and infrared light curves, evidence for dust formation appears soon after the end of the detected $γ$-ray emission. Dusty and non-dusty novae appear to have similar $γ$-ray luminosities, though novae that have more material processed by the shocks may be more likely to form dust. We find that the properties of the $γ$-ray emission in novae depend heavily on the ejecta properties, and are consistent with expectations for internal shocks.

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arXiv2025

Multiple outflows and delayed ejections revealed by early imaging of novae

Novae are thermonuclear eruptions on accreting white dwarfs in interacting binaries. Although most of the accreted envelope is expelled, the mechanism -- impulsive ejection, multiple outflows or prolonged winds, or a common-envelope interaction -- remains uncertain. GeV $γ$-ray detections from $>20$ Galactic novae establish these eruptions as nearby laboratories for shock physics and particle acceleration, underscoring the need to determine how novae eject their envelopes. Here we report on near-infrared interferometry, supported with multiwavelength observations, of two $γ$-ray detected novae. The images of the very fast 2021 nova V1674~Her, taken just 2--3 days after discovery, reveal the presence of two perpendicular outflows. The interaction between these outflows likely drives the observed $γ$-ray emission. Conversely, the images of the very slow 2021 nova V1405~Cas suggest a delay in the ejection of the bulk of the accreted envelope of more than 50 days after the start of eruption, as the nova slowly rises to visible peak and during which the envelope engulfed the system in a common envelope phase. These unprecedented images offer direct observational evidence that the mechanisms driving mass ejection from the surfaces of accreting white dwarfs are not as simple as previously thought, revealing multiple outflows and delayed ejections.

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arXiv2025

X-ray Observations of Nova Scorpii 2023 (V1716 Sco) in Outburst

Nova Scorpii 2023 was first detected as a luminous supersoft X-ray source (SSS) 93 days after outburst and continued emitting soft X-rays for over two months, until it was too close to the Sun to observe. The nova was monitored with the Swift X-ray Telescope (XRT) and the Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) on the International Space Station, and in long exposures with the Chandra High Resolution Camera (HRC) and Low Energy Transmission Grating (LETG) on days 128, 129, and 183-185 after optical maximum. Swift detected a rapidly decaying SSS when observations resumed, constraining the constant bolometric luminosity phase to 9 months. The SSS flux was irregularly variable. A nearly three-fold increase in flux was observed between August and October 2023 in the 15 to 35 Angstrom range, from 3.5 x 10^(-11) to 9.4 x 10^(-11) erg cm^(-2) s^(-1). The SSS duration and effective temperature derived from the October LETG spectra indicate a massive white dwarf with temperature fitting nova evolutionary tracks for a 1.2 solar mass WD; emission lines superimposed on the WD continuum are attributed to surrounding shocked ejecta. We present a timing study based on Chandra and archival NICER data. The irregular variability timescale was days, but a 77.9 second periodic modulation in the SSS flux with varying amplitude was measured in many observations. Our analysis shows that this period was stable; short drifts derived with NICER, but not in long, uninterrupted Chandra exposures, are artifacts of measuring variable amplitude modulation. We suggest the modulations are associated with the WD rotation.

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arXiv2025

X-ray observations of Nova Sco 2023: Spectroscopic evidence of charge exchange

The super-soft source (SSS) phase of a nova eruption, observed a few days after the outburst, usually displays an absorbed X-ray thermal continuum with absorption features, emitted by the white dwarf (WD) atmosphere. However, the X-ray spectra of many novae in this phase display additional emission lines which likely originate from shocks in the novae ejecta. When the shocked plasma interacts with cold gas, narrow radiative recombination continua (RRCs) and charge exchange (CX) emission are observed. We present the analysis of high-resolution ChandraLETG X-ray grating spectra of Nova Sco 2023, observed 128 and 183 days after the optical peak, on 2023 August and October. At both epochs, the absorbed X-ray thermal continuum is well described by a Non-Local Thermal Equilibrium atmosphere model with a temperature T=750,000 K (kT = 65 eV). On day 128, the atmosphere is found to be outflowing at v=-3500 km s^-1. On day 183, the atmosphere brightened by a factor of ~2 and slowed down to v=-1500$ km s^-1. The discrete emission features of the spectrum consist of the C^+5, N^+5, and N^+6 RRCs, indicating a cold electron temperature of kT_e=1 eV on day 128, and kT_e=20 eV on day 183. The observed line series of H-like and He-like C^+5, N^+5, N^+6, and O^+6 show enhanced intensities of high-n (principal quantum number) transitions, consistent with a CX model of hot ions at kT~100 eV. The velocity shift of the CX lines remained at v=+-3000 km s^-1, which can be explained by a bipolar outflow. After Nova Ret 2020 (YZ Ret), Nova Sco 2023 is yet another nova in which we have found exquisite evidence of CX in astrophysical ionized plasma.

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arXiv2025

Broad Observational Perspectives Achieved by the Accreting White Dwarf Sciences in the XMM-Newton and Chandra Eras

Accreting white dwarf binaries (AWDs) comprise cataclysmic variables (CVs), symbiotics, AM CVns, and other related systems that host a primary white dwarf (WD) accreting from a main sequence or evolved companion star. AWDs are a product of close binary evolution; thus, they are important for understanding the evolution and population of X-ray binaries in the Milky Way and other galaxies. AWDs are essential for studying astrophysical plasmas under different conditions along with accretion physics and processes, transient events, matter ejection and outflows, compact binary evolution, mergers, angular momentum loss mechanisms, and nuclear processes leading to explosions. AWDs are also closely related to other objects in the late stages of stellar evolution, with other accreting objects in compact binaries, and even share common phenomena with young stellar objects, active galactic nuclei, quasars, and supernova remnants. As X-ray astronomy came to a climax with the start of the Chandra and XMM-Newton missions owing to their unprecedented instrumentation, new excellent imaging capabilities, good time resolution, and X-ray grating technologies allowed immense advancement in many aspects of astronomy and astrophysics. In this review, we lay out a panorama of developments on the study of AWDs that have been accomplished and have been made possible by these two observatories; we summarize the key observational achievements and the challenges ahead.

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arXiv2024

Mixing of hot shocked plasma with cold gas in Nova YZ Ret 2020

The origin of bright X-ray emission lines that appear late in a nova eruption remains largely a puzzle. We present two high-resolution X-ray grating spectra of the classical nova YZ Ret, observed 77 and 115 days post-eruption, using XMM-Newton and Chandra , respectively. Both spectra feature resolved emission lines blueshifted by $v = -1500$ km s$^{-1}$ and broadened by $σ_v=500$ km s$^{-1}$. The two spectra are well described by a collisionally ionized plasma of $kT\sim 70$ eV that dimmed by a factor of $\sim40$ between the two exposures. The spectra also show narrow radiative recombination continua (RRCs) of C$^{+4}$, C$^{+5}$, and N$^{+5}$, indicating the interaction of the hot ionized plasma with cold electrons of $kT\sim 2$ eV. The high-$n$ Rydberg series of C$^{+4}$ is anomalously bright, allowing us to measure the electron density through continuum lowering, which is in agreement with the He-like N$^{+5}$ density diagnostic of $n_e=(1.7\pm0.4)\times10^{11}$ cm$^{-3}$. The high population of these high-$n$ levels constitutes the best evidence to date of charge exchange (CX) with neutral H in an astrophysical ionized plasma. The remarkable fact that the velocity and plasma temperature are the same after 38 days, despite the high density and decreasing flux is evidence for ongoing heating. We suggest the heating is due to a reverse shock in the nova ejecta, which forms a thin X-ray shell. The narrow RRCs and CX are attributed to direct mixing with cold gas, which overtakes the hot plasma either from the shock front, or through the contact discontinuity.

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arXiv2024

Swift monitoring of GK Persei during the 2018 dwarf nova outburst

The old nova and intermediate polar (IP) GK Persei underwent one of its recurrent dwarf nova (DN) outbursts in 2018. We proposed monitoring it in UV and X-rays with the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory, starting less than six days after the eruption, until 16 days after the eruption ended. For the first time we could follow the decay to minimum light UV and X-rays. We present the timing and spectral analysis, comparing the results with the previous outbursts and with the quiescent status. We confirm the spin modulation in X-rays with a period 351.325(9) s, only in the 2-10 keV range. The period was not detected in the 0.3-2 keV range and in the UV band, suggesting that the soft portion of the X-ray spectrum in GK Per does not originate near the poles, but in a wind or circumstellar material. The amplitude of the modulation was less prominent than in 2015, a fact that seems correlated with a lower average mass accretion rate. The spectral fits are consistent with a mass accretion rate increasing by a factor of 2 from rise to maximum and decreasing during the return to minimum, following the trend of the modulation amplitude. The maximum plasma temperature is higher than the Swift XRT energy range of 0.3-10 keV, thus it is not well constrained, but our spectral fits indicate that it may have varied irregularly during the outburst.

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arXiv2023

The RS Oph outburst of 2021 monitored in X-rays with NICER

The 2021 outburst of the symbiotic recurrent nova RS Oph was monitored with the Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer Mission (NICER) in the 0.2-12 keV range from day one after the optical maximum, until day 88, producing an unprecedented, detailed view of the outburst development. The X-ray flux preceding the supersoft X-ray phase peaked almost 5 days after optical maximum and originated only in shocked ejecta for 21 to 25 days. The emission was thermal; in the first 5 days only a non-collisional-ionization equilibrium model fits the spectrum, and a transition to equilibrium occurred between days 6 and 12. The ratio of peak X-rays flux measured in the NICER range to that measured with Fermi in the 60 MeV-500 GeV range was about 0.1, and the ratio to the peak flux measured with H.E.S.S. in the 250 GeV-2.5 TeV range was about 100. The central supersoft X-ray source (SSS), namely the shell hydrogen burning white dwarf (WD), became visible in the fourth week, initially with short flares. A huge increase in flux occurred on day 41, but the SSS flux remained variable. A quasi-periodic oscillation every ~35 s was always observed during the SSS phase, with variations in amplitude and a period drift that appeared to decrease in the end. The SSS has characteristics of a WD of mass >1 M(solar). Thermonuclear burning switched off shortly after day 75, earlier than in 2006 outburst. We discuss implications for the nova physics.

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arXiv2022

Shocks in the outflow of the RS Oph 2021 eruption observed with X-ray gratings

The 2021 outburst of the symbiotic recurrent nova RS Oph was observed with the Chandra High Energy Transmission Gratings (HETG) on day 18 after optical maximum and with XMM-Newton and its Reflection Grating Spectrographs (RGS) on day 21, before the supersoft X-ray source emerged and when the emission was due to shocked ejecta. The absorbed flux in the HETG 1.3-31 Angstrom range was 2.6 x 10(-10) erg/cm(-2)/s, three orders of magnitude lower than the gamma-ray flux measured on the same date. The spectra are well fitted with two components of thermal plasma in collisional ionization equilibrium, one at a temperature ~0.75 keV, and the other at temperature in the 2.5-3.4 keV range. With the RGS we measured an average flux 1.53 x 10(-10) erg/cm(-2)/s in the 5-35 Angstrom range, but the flux in the continuum and especially in the lines in the 23-35 Angstrom range decreased during the 50 ks RGS exposure by almost 10%, indicating short term variability on hours' time scale. The RGS spectrum can be fitted with three thermal components, respectively at plasma temperature between 70 and 150 eV, 0.64 keV and 2.4 keV. The post-maximum epochs of the exposures fall between those of two grating spectra observed in the 2006 eruption on days 14 and 26: they are consistent with a similar spectral evolution, but in 2021 cooling seems to have been more rapid. Iron is depleted in the ejecta with respect to solar values, while nitrogen is enhanced.

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arXiv2021

The Remarkable Spin-down and Ultra-fast Outflows of the Highly-Pulsed Supersoft Source of Nova Hercules 2021

Nova Her 2021 (V1674 Her), which erupted on 2021 June 12, reached naked-eye brightness and has been detected from radio to $γ$-rays. An extremely fast optical decline of 2 magnitudes in 1.2 days and strong Ne lines imply a high-mass white dwarf. The optical pre-outburst detection of a 501.42s oscillation suggests a magnetic white dwarf. This is the first time that an oscillation of this magnitude has been detected in a classical nova prior to outburst. We report X-ray outburst observations from {\it Swift} and {\it Chandra} which uniquely show: (1) a very strong modulation of super-soft X-rays at a different period from reported optical periods; (2) strong pulse profile variations and the possible presence of period variations of the order of 0.1-0.3s; and (3) rich grating spectra that vary with modulation phase and show P Cygni-type emission lines with two dominant blue-shifted absorption components at $\sim 3000$ and 9000 km s$^{-1}$ indicating expansion velocities up to 11000 km s$^{-1}$. X-ray oscillations most likely arise from inhomogeneous photospheric emission related to the magnetic field. Period differences between reported pre- and post-outburst optical observations, if not due to other period drift mechanisms, suggest a large ejected mass for such a fast nova, in the range $2\times 10^{-5}$-$2\times 10^{-4} M_\odot$. A difference between the period found in the {\it Chandra} data and a reported contemporaneous post-outburst optical period, as well as the presence of period drifts, could be due to weakly non-rigid photospheric rotation.

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arXiv2021

Chandra observations of nova KT Eridani in outburst

We analyse here four observations of nova KT Eri (Nova Eri 2009) done with the Chandra High Resolution Camera Spectrometer (HRC-S) and the Low Energy Transmission Grating (LETG) in 2010, from day 71 until day 159 after the optical maximum, in the luminous supersoft X-ray phase. The spectrum presents many absorption features with a large range of velocity, from a few hundred km s$^{-1}$ to 3100 km s$^{-1}$ in the same observation, and a few prominent emission features, generally redshifted by more than 2000 km s$^{-1}$. Although the uncertainty on the distance and the WD luminosity from the approximate fit do not let us rule out a larger absolute luminosity than our best estimate of $\simeq 5 \times 10^{37}$ erg s$^{-1}$, it is likely that we observed only up to $\simeq$40% of the surface of the white dwarf, which may have been partially hidden by clumpy ejecta. Our fit with atmospheric models indicate a massive white dwarf in the 1.15-1.25 M$_\odot$ range. A thermal spectrum originating in the ejecta appears to be superimposed on the white dwarf spectrum. It is complex, has more than one component and may be due to a mixture of photoionized and shock ionized outflowing material. We confirm that the $\simeq$35 s oscillation that was reported earlier, was detected in the last observation, done on day 159 of the outburst.

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arXiv2021

Nova LMC 2009a as observed with XMM-Newton, compared with other novae

We examine four high resolution reflection grating spectrometers (RGS) spectra of the February 2009 outburst of the luminous recurrent nova LMC 2009a. They were very complex and rich in intricate absorption and emission features. The continuum was consistent with a dominant component originating in the atmosphere of a shell burning white dwarf (WD) with peak effective temperature between 810,000 K and a million K, and mass in the 1.2-1.4 M$_\odot$ range. A moderate blue shift of the absorption features of a few hundred km s$^{-1}$ can be explained with a residual nova wind depleting the WD surface at a rate of about 10$^{-8}$ M$_\odot$ yr$^{-1}$. The emission spectrum seems to be due to both photoionization and shock ionization in the ejecta. The supersoft X-ray flux was irregularly variable on time scales of hours, with decreasing amplitude of the variability. We find that both the period and the amplitude of another, already known 33.3 s modulation, varied within timescales of hours. We compared N LMC 2009a with other Magellanic Clouds novae, including 4 serendipitously discovered as supersoft X-ray sources (SSS) among 13 observed within 16 years after the eruption. The new detected targets were much less luminous than expected: we suggest that they were partially obscured by the accretion disk. Lack of SSS detections in the Magellanic Clouds novae more than 5.5 years after the eruption constrains the average duration of the nuclear burning phase.

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arXiv2020

X-ray Spectra and Light Curves of Cooling Novae and a Nova-Like

We present X-ray observations of novae V2491 Cyg and KT Eri about 9 years post-outburst, of the dwarf nova and post-nova candidate EY Cyg, and of a VY Scl variable. The first three objects were observed with XMM-Newton, KT Eri also with the Chandra ACIS-S camera, V794 Aql with the Chandra ACIS-S camera and High Energy Transmission Gratings. The two recent novae, similar in outburst amplitude and light curve, appear very different at quiescence. Assuming half of the gravitational energy is irradiated in X-rays, V2491 Cyg is accreting at $\dot{m}=1.4\times10^{-9}-10^{-8}M_\odot/yr$, while for KT Eri, $\dot{m}<2\times10^{-10}M_\odot/yr$. V2491 Cyg shows signatures of a magnetized WD, specifically of an intermediate polar. A periodicity of ~39 minutes, detected in outburst, was still measured and is likely due to WD rotation. EY Cyg is accreting at $\dot{m}\sim1.8\times10^{-11}M_\odot/yr$, one magnitude lower than KT Eri, consistently with its U Gem outburst behavior and its quiescent UV flux. The X-rays are modulated with the orbital period, despite the system's low inclination, probably due to the X-ray flux of the secondary. A period of ~81 minutes is also detected, suggesting that it may also be an intermediate polar. V794 Aql had low X-ray luminosity during an optically high state, about the same level as in a recent optically low state. Thus, we find no clear correlation between optical and X-ray luminosity: the accretion rate seems unstable and variable. The very hard X-ray spectrum indicates a massive WD.

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arXiv2020

Chandra High Energy Transmission Gratings Spectra of V3890 Sgr

The recurrent nova (RN) V3890 Sgr was observed during the 7th day after the onset of its most recent outburst, with the Chandra ACIS-S camera and High Energy Transmission Gratings (HETG). A rich emission line spectrum was detected, due to transitions of Fe-L and K-shell ions ranging from neon to iron. The measured absorbed flux is $\approx 10^{-10}$ erg cm$^{-2}$ s$^{-1}$ in the 1.4-15 Angstrom range (0.77-8.86 keV). The line profiles are asymmetric, blue-shifted and skewed towards the blue side, as if the ejecta moving towards us are less absorbed than the receding ones. The full width at half maximum of most emission lines is 1000-1200 km s$^{-1}$, with some extended blue wings. The spectrum is thermal and consistent with a plasma in collisional ionization equilibrium with column density 1.3 $\times 10^{22}$ cm$^{-2}$ and at least two components at temperatures of about 1 keV and 4 keV, possibly a forward and a reverse shock, or regions with differently mixed ejecta and red giant wind. The spectrum is remarkably similar to the symbiotic RNe V745 Sco and RS Oph, but we cannot distinguish whether the shocks occurred at a distance of few AU from the red giant, or near the giant's photosphere, in a high density medium containing only a small mass. The ratios of the flux in lines of aluminum, magnesium and neon relative to the flux in lines of silicon and iron probably indicate a carbon-oxygen white dwarf (CO WD).

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arXiv2020

Direct evidence for shock-powered optical emission in a nova

Classical novae are thermonuclear explosions that occur on the surfaces of white dwarf stars in interacting binary systems (Bode & Evans 2008). It has long been thought that the luminosity of classical novae is powered by continued nuclear burning on the surface of the white dwarf after the initial runaway (Gallaher & Starrfield 1978). However, recent observations of GeV $γ$-rays from classical novae have hinted that shocks internal to the nova ejecta may dominate the nova emission. Shocks have also been suggested to power the luminosity of events as diverse as stellar mergers (Metzger & Pejcha 2017), supernovae (Moriya et al. 2018), and tidal disruption events (Roth et al. 2016), but observational confirmation has been lacking. Here we report simultaneous space-based optical and $γ$-ray observations of the 2018 nova V906 Carinae (ASASSN-18fv), revealing a remarkable series of distinct correlated flares in both bands. The optical and $γ$-ray flares occur simultaneously, implying a common origin in shocks. During the flares, the nova luminosity doubles, implying that the bulk of the luminosity is shock-powered. Furthermore, we detect concurrent but weak X-ray emission from deeply embedded shocks, confirming that the shock power does not appear in the X-ray band and supporting its emergence at longer wavelengths. Our data, spanning the spectrum from radio to $γ$-ray, provide direct evidence that shocks can power substantial luminosity in classical novae and other optical transients.

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arXiv2019

Closing gaps to our origins. The UV window into the Universe

The investigation of the emergence of life is a major endeavour of science. Astronomy is contributing to it in three fundamental manners: (1) by measuring the chemical enrichment of the Universe, (2) by investigating planet formation and searching for exoplanets with signatures of life and, (3) by determining the abundance of aminoacids and the chemical routes to aminoacid and protein growth in astronomical bodies. This proposal deals with the first two. In the Voyage to 2050, the world-wide scientific community is getting equipped with large facilities for the investigation of the emergence of life in the Universe (i.e. VLT, JWST, ELT, GMT, TMT, ALMA, FAST, VLA, ATHENA, SKA) including the ESA's CHEOPS, PLATO and ARIEL missions. This white paper is a community effort to call for the development of a large ultraviolet optical observatory to gather fundamental data for this investigation that will not be accessible through other ranges of the electromagnetic spectrum. A versatile space observatory with UV sensitivity a factor of 50-100 greater than existing facilities will revolutionize our understanding of the pathway to life in the Universe.

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arXiv2019

The supersoft X-ray transient ASASSN-16oh as a thermonuclear runaway without mass ejection

The supersoft X-ray and optical transient ASASSN-16oh has been interpreted by Maccarone et al. (2019) as having being induced by an accretion event on a massive white dwarf, resembling a dwarf nova super-outburst. These authors argued that the supersoft X-ray spectrum had a different origin than in an atmosphere heated by shell nuclear burning, because no mass was ejected. We find instead that the event's timescale and other characteristics are typical of non-mass ejecting thermonuclear runaways, as already predicted by Shara et al. (1977) and the extensive grid of nova models by Yaron et al. (2005). We suggest that the low X-ray and bolometric luminosity in comparison to the predictions of the models of nuclear burning are due to an optically thick accretion disk, hiding most of the white dwarf surface. If this is the case, we calculated that the optical transient can be explained as a non-ejective thermonuclear event on a WD of $\simeq$1.1M$_\odot$ accreting at the rate of $\simeq3.5{-}5{\times}10^{-7}$M$_\odot$yr$^{-1}$. We make predictions that should prove whether the nature of the transient event was due to thermonuclear burning or to accretion; observational proof should be obtained in the next few years, because a new outburst should occur within $\simeq$10-15 years of the event.

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