arXiv subjects

Marina Toger

Publications and source records attributed to Marina Toger.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Modeling Commuter Mobility in Stockholm: A Spatial Panel Approach Using Mobile Phone Data

This paper examines the sociodemographic and socioeconomic determinants of regional commuter mobility in the Greater Stockholm Area using a heteroscedastic spatial Durbin panel data model estimated via Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Drawing on mobile phone-derived origin-destination flows from the MIND database, the analysis exploits unusually fine spatial and temporal granularity across a balanced panel of 675 regions over the period 2018-2023. A k-nearest neighbor spatial weight matrix (k = 18), selected via Bayesian model comparison, captures the topological structure of interregional connectivity. By modeling spatial lags in both the dependent and independent variables, the framework enables explicit recovery of direct (own-region) and indirect (spillover) effects from scalar summary measures of the matrix of partial derivatives -- providing robust posterior inference on how sociodemographic and socioeconomic conditions propagate through space. This approach addresses a key limitation of conventional non-spatial methods, which risk producing biased estimates by ignoring spatial interdependence. Empirical results confirm that spatial spillovers predominate over direct effects, with educational attainment and car ownership emerging as the principal determinants of commuter mobility, while age composition plays a comparatively modest role. These findings underscore that evaluating direct effects in isolation systematically underestimates the broader societal returns to mobility-enhancing regional policies.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2021

The fallacy of the closest antenna: Towards an adequate view of device location in the mobile network

The partition of the Mobile Phone Network (MPN) service area into the cell towers' Voronoi polygons (VP) may serve as a coordinate system for representing the location of the mobile phone devices. This view is shared by numerous papers that exploit mobile phone data for studying human spatial mobility. We investigate the credibility of this view by comparing volunteers' locational data of two kinds: (1) Cell towers' that served volunteers' connections and (2) The GPS tracks of the users at the time of connection. In more than 60\% of connections, user's mobile device was found outside the VP of the cell tower that served for the connection. We demonstrate that the area of possible device's location is many times larger than the area of the cell tower's VP. To comprise 90\% of the possible locations of the devices that may be connected to the cell tower one has to consider the tower's VP together with the two rings of the VPs adjacent to the tower's VPs. An additional, third, ring of the adjacent VPs is necessary to comprise 95\% of possible locations of the devices that can be connected to a cell tower. The revealed location uncertainty is in the nature of the MPN structure and service and entail essential overlap between the cell towers' service areas. We discuss the far-reaching consequences of this uncertainty in regards to the estimating of locational privacy and urban mobility. Our results undermine today's dominant opinion that an adversary, who obtains the access to the database of the Call Detail Records maintained by the MPN operator, can identify a mobile device without knowing its number based on a very short sequence of time-stamped field observations of the user's connection.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

How average is average? Temporal patterns in human behaviour as measured by mobile phone data -- or why chose Thursdays

Mobile phone data -- with file sizes scaling into terabytes -- easily overwhelm the computational capacity available to some researchers. Moreover, for ethical reasons, data access is often granted only to particular subsets, restricting analyses to cover single days, weeks, or geographical areas. Consequently, it is frequently impossible to set a particular analysis or event in its context and know how typical it is, compared to other days, weeks or months. This is important for academic referees questioning research on mobile phone data and for the analysts in deciding how to sample, how much data to process, and which events are anomalous. All these issues require an understanding of variability in Big Data to answer the question of how average is average? This paper provides a method, using a large mobile phone dataset, to answer these basic but necessary questions. We show that file size is a robust proxy for the activity level of phone users by profiling the temporal variability of the data at an hourly, daily and monthly level. We then apply time-series analysis to isolate temporal periodicity. Finally, we discuss confidence limits to anomalous events in the data. We recommend an analytical approach to mobile phone data selection which suggests that ideally data should be sampled across days, across working weeks, and across the year, to obtain a representative average. However, where this is impossible, the temporal variability is such that specific weekdays' data can provide a fair picture of other days in their general structure.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2020

Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Population Mobility under Mild Policies: Causal Evidence from Sweden

Sweden has adopted far less restrictive social distancing policies than most countries following the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper uses data on all mobile phone users, from one major Swedish mobile phone network, to examine the impact of the Coronavirus outbreak under the Swedish mild recommendations and restrictions regime on individual mobility and if changes in geographical mobility vary over different socio-economic strata. Having access to data for January-March in both 2019 and 2020 enables the estimation of causal effects of the COVID-19 outbreak by adopting a Difference-in-Differences research design. The paper reaches four main conclusions: (i) The daytime population in residential areas increased significantly (64 percent average increase); (ii) The daytime presence in industrial and commercial areas decreased significantly (33 percent average decrease); (iii) The distance individuals move from their homes during a day was substantially reduced (38 percent decrease in the maximum distance moved and 36 percent increase in share of individuals who move less than one kilometer from home); (iv) Similar reductions in mobility were found for residents in areas with different socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. These results show that mild government policies can compel people to adopt social distancing behavior.

econ.GN↗