arXiv subjects

Marios M. Polycarpou

Publications and source records attributed to Marios M. Polycarpou.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Prospect Theoretic Approach to Pursuit-evasion Differential Games with Risk Aversion and Probability Sensitivity

This paper considers for the first time pursuit-evasion (PE) differential games with irrational perceptions of both pursuer and evader on probabilistic characteristics of environmental uncertainty. Firstly, the irrational perceptions of risk aversion and probability sensitivity are modeled and incorporated within a Bayesian PE differential game framework by using Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) approach; Secondly, several sufficient conditions of capturability are established in terms of system dynamics and irrational parameters; Finally, the existence of CPT-Nash equilibria is rigorously analyzed by invoking Brouwer's fixed-point theorem. The new results reveal that irrational behaviors benefit the pursuer in some cases and the evader in others. Certain captures that are unachievable under rational behaviors can be achieved under irrational ones. By bridging irrational behavioral theory with game-theoretic control, this framework establishes a rigorous theoretical foundation for practical control engineering within complex human-machine systems.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2026

Partial Excitation in Parameter Learning

This paper investigates parameter learning problems under Partial Persistent Excitation (PPE). The PPE condition is a rank-deficient, and therefore, a more general evolution of the well-known Persistent Excitation (PE) condition. Under the PPE condition, a proposed online algorithm is able to calculate the PE and non-PE subspaces, and finally gives an optimal parameter estimate in the sense of least squares. In particular, the learning error within the PE subspace exponentially converges to zero in the noise-free case. The PPE condition also provides a new perspective for solving distributed parameter learning problems, where the challenge is posed by local regressors that are often insufficiently excited. To improve knowledge of the unknown parameters, a cooperative learning protocol is proposed for a group of estimators that collect measured information under complementary PPE condition. This protocol allows each local estimator to operate locally in its PE subspace, and reach a consensus with neighbors in its non-PE subspace. As a result, the task of estimating unknown parameters can be achieved in a distributed way using cooperative local estimators. Application examples in system identification are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the theoretical results developed in this paper.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2026

Adaptive Monitoring of Stochastic Fire Front Processes via Information-seeking Predictive Control

We consider the problem of adaptively monitoring a wildfire front using a mobile agent (e.g., a drone), whose trajectory determines where sensor data is collected and thus influences the accuracy of fire propagation estimation. This is a challenging problem, as the stochastic nature of wildfire evolution requires the seamless integration of sensing, estimation, and control, often treated separately in existing methods. State-of-the-art methods either impose linear-Gaussian assumptions to establish optimality or rely on approximations and heuristics, often without providing explicit performance guarantees. To address these limitations, we formulate the fire front monitoring task as a stochastic optimal control problem that integrates sensing, estimation, and control. We derive an optimal recursive Bayesian estimator for a class of stochastic nonlinear elliptical-growth fire front models. Subsequently, we transform the resulting nonlinear stochastic control problem into a finite-horizon Markov decision process and design an information-seeking predictive control law obtained via a lower confidence bound-based adaptive search algorithm with asymptotic convergence to the optimal policy.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2026

Synergising Human-like Responses and Machine Intelligence for Planning in Disaster Response

In the rapidly changing environments of disaster response, planning and decision-making for autonomous agents involve complex and interdependent choices. Although recent advancements have improved traditional artificial intelligence (AI) approaches, they often struggle in such settings, particularly when applied to agents operating outside their well-defined training parameters. To address these challenges, we propose an attention-based cognitive architecture inspired by Dual Process Theory (DPT). This framework integrates, in an online fashion, rapid yet heuristic (human-like) responses (System 1) with the slow but optimized planning capabilities of machine intelligence (System 2). We illustrate how a supervisory controller can dynamically determine in real-time the engagement of either system to optimize mission objectives by assessing their performance across a number of distinct attributes. Evaluated for trajectory planning in dynamic environments, our framework demonstrates that this synergistic integration effectively manages complex tasks by optimizing multiple mission objectives.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

A Cooperative Multi-Agent Probabilistic Framework for Search and Track Missions

In this work a robust and scalable cooperative multi-agent searching and tracking framework is proposed. Specifically, we study the problem of cooperative searching and tracking of multiple moving targets by a group of autonomous mobile agents with limited sensing capabilities. We assume that the actual number of targets present is not known a priori and that target births/deaths can occur anywhere inside the surveillance region thus efficient search strategies are required to detect and track as many targets as possible. To address the aforementioned challenges we recursively compute and propagate in time the searching-and-tracking (SAT) density. Using the SAT-density, we then develop decentralized cooperative look-ahead strategies for efficient searching and tracking of an unknown number of targets inside a bounded surveillance area.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2026

Drift-Aware Variational Autoencoder-based Anomaly Detection with Two-level Ensembling

In today's digital world, the generation of vast amounts of streaming data in various domains has become ubiquitous. However, many of these data are unlabeled, making it challenging to identify events, particularly anomalies. This task becomes even more formidable in nonstationary environments where model performance can deteriorate over time due to concept drift. To address these challenges, this paper presents a novel method, VAE++ESDD, which employs incremental learning and two-level ensembling: an ensemble of Variational AutoEncoder(VAEs) for anomaly prediction, along with an ensemble of concept drift detectors. Each drift detector utilizes a statistical-based concept drift mechanism. To evaluate the effectiveness of VAE++ESDD, we conduct a comprehensive experimental study using real-world and synthetic datasets characterized by severely or extremely low anomalous rates and various drift characteristics. Our study reveals that the proposed method significantly outperforms both strong baselines and state-of-the-art methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Low Rank Transformer for Multivariate Time Series Anomaly Detection and Localization

Multivariate time series (MTS) anomaly diagnosis, which encompasses both anomaly detection and localization, is critical for the safety and reliability of complex, large-scale real-world systems. The vast majority of existing anomaly diagnosis methods offer limited theoretical insights, especially for anomaly localization, which is a vital but largely unexplored area. The aim of this contribution is to study the learning process of a Transformer when applied to MTS by revealing connections to statistical time series methods. Based on these theoretical insights, we propose the Attention Low-Rank Transformer (ALoRa-T) model, which applies low-rank regularization to self-attention, and we introduce the Attention Low-Rank score, effectively capturing the temporal characteristics of anomalies. Finally, to enable anomaly localization, we propose the ALoRa-Loc method, a novel approach that associates anomalies to specific variables by quantifying interrelationships among time series. Extensive experiments and real data analysis, show that the proposed methodology significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods in both detection and localization tasks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Secure Distributed Consensus Estimation under False Data Injection Attacks: A Defense Strategy Based on Partial Channel Coding

This article investigates the security issue caused by false data injection attacks in distributed estimation, wherein each sensor can construct two types of residues based on local estimates and neighbor information, respectively. The resource-constrained attacker can select partial channels from the sensor network and arbitrarily manipulate the transmitted data. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions to reveal system vulnerabilities, under which the attacker is able to diverge the estimation error while preserving the stealthiness of all residues. We propose two defense strategies with mechanisms of exploiting the Euclidean distance between local estimates to detect attacks, and adopting the coding scheme to protect the transmitted data, respectively. It is proven that the former has the capability to address the majority of security loopholes, while the latter can serve as an additional enhancement to the former. By employing the time-varying coding matrix to mitigate the risk of being cracked, we demonstrate that the latter can safeguard against adversaries injecting stealthy sequences into the encoded channels. Hence, drawing upon the security analysis, we further provide a procedure to select security-critical channels that need to be encoded, thereby achieving a trade-off between security and coding costs. Finally, some numerical simulations are conducted to demonstrate the theoretical results.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2025

Unsupervised Online Detection of Pipe Blockages and Leakages in Water Distribution Networks

Water Distribution Networks (WDNs), critical to public well-being and economic stability, face challenges such as pipe blockages and background leakages, exacerbated by operational constraints such as data non-stationarity and limited labeled data. This paper proposes an unsupervised, online learning framework that aims to detect two types of faults in WDNs: pipe blockages, modeled as collective anomalies, and background leakages, modeled as concept drift. Our approach combines a Long Short-Term Memory Variational Autoencoder (LSTM-VAE) with a dual drift detection mechanism, enabling robust detection and adaptation under non-stationary conditions. Its lightweight, memory-efficient design enables real-time, edge-level monitoring. Experiments on two realistic WDNs show that the proposed approach consistently outperforms strong baselines in detecting anomalies and adapting to recurrent drift, demonstrating its effectiveness in unsupervised event detection for dynamic WDN environments.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Adaptive event-triggered robust tracking control of soft robots

Soft robots manufactured with flexible materials can be highly compliant and adaptive to their surroundings, which facilitates their application in areas such as dexterous manipulation and environmental exploration. This paper aims at investigating the tracking control problem for soft robots under uncertainty such as unmodeled dynamics and external disturbance. First, we establish a novel switching function and design the compensated tracking error dynamics by virtue of the command filter. Then, based on the backstepping methodology, the virtual controllers and the adaptive logic estimating the supremum of uncertainty impacts are developed for synthesizing an event-triggered control strategy. In addition, the uniformed finite-time stability certification is derived for different scenarios of the switching function. Finally, we perform a case study of a soft robot to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed control algorithm.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2025

Data-Driven Predictive Planning and Control for Aerial 3D Inspection with Back-face Elimination

Automated inspection with Unmanned Aerial Systems (UASs) is a transformative capability set to revolutionize various application domains. However, this task is inherently complex, as it demands the seamless integration of perception, planning, and control which existing approaches often treat separately. Moreover, it requires accurate long-horizon planning to predict action sequences, in contrast to many current techniques, which tend to be myopic. To overcome these limitations, we propose a 3D inspection approach that unifies perception, planning, and control within a single data-driven predictive control framework. Unlike traditional methods that rely on known UAS dynamic models, our approach requires only input-output data, making it easily applicable to off-the-shelf black-box UASs. Our method incorporates back-face elimination, a visibility determination technique from 3D computer graphics, directly into the control loop, thereby enabling the online generation of accurate, long-horizon 3D inspection trajectories.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2025

Interpretable Event Diagnosis in Water Distribution Networks

The increasing penetration of information and communication technologies in the design, monitoring, and control of water systems enables the use of algorithms for detecting and identifying unanticipated events (such as leakages or water contamination) using sensor measurements. However, data-driven methodologies do not always give accurate results and are often not trusted by operators, who may prefer to use their engineering judgment and experience to deal with such events. In this work, we propose a framework for interpretable event diagnosis -- an approach that assists the operators in associating the results of algorithmic event diagnosis methodologies with their own intuition and experience. This is achieved by providing contrasting (i.e., counterfactual) explanations of the results provided by fault diagnosis algorithms; their aim is to improve the understanding of the algorithm's inner workings by the operators, thus enabling them to take a more informed decision by combining the results with their personal experiences. Specifically, we propose counterfactual event fingerprints, a representation of the difference between the current event diagnosis and the closest alternative explanation, which can be presented in a graphical way. The proposed methodology is applied and evaluated on a realistic use case using the L-Town benchmark.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Rolling Horizon Coverage Control with Collaborative Autonomous Agents

This work proposes a coverage controller that enables an aerial team of distributed autonomous agents to collaboratively generate non-myopic coverage plans over a rolling finite horizon, aiming to cover specific points on the surface area of a 3D object of interest. The collaborative coverage problem, formulated, as a distributed model predictive control problem, optimizes the agents' motion and camera control inputs, while considering inter-agent constraints aiming at reducing work redundancy. The proposed coverage controller integrates constraints based on light-path propagation techniques to predict the parts of the object's surface that are visible with regard to the agents' future anticipated states. This work also demonstrates how complex, non-linear visibility assessment constraints can be converted into logical expressions that are embedded as binary constraints into a mixed-integer optimization framework. The proposed approach has been demonstrated through simulations and practical applications for inspecting buildings with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

cs.RO↗

arXiv2025

Jointly-optimized Trajectory Generation and Camera Control for 3D Coverage Planning

This work proposes a jointly optimized trajectory generation and camera control approach, enabling an autonomous agent, such as an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) operating in 3D environments, to plan and execute coverage trajectories that maximally cover the surface area of a 3D object of interest. Specifically, the UAV's kinematic and camera control inputs are jointly optimized over a rolling planning horizon to achieve complete 3D coverage of the object. The proposed controller incorporates ray-tracing into the planning process to simulate the propagation of light rays, thereby determining the visible parts of the object through the UAV's camera. This integration enables the generation of precise look-ahead coverage trajectories. The coverage planning problem is formulated as a rolling finite-horizon optimal control problem and solved using mixed-integer programming techniques. Extensive real-world and synthetic experiments validate the performance of the proposed approach.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2025

SiameseDuo++: Active Learning from Data Streams with Dual Augmented Siamese Networks

Data stream mining, also known as stream learning, is a growing area which deals with learning from high-speed arriving data. Its relevance has surged recently due to its wide range of applicability, such as, critical infrastructure monitoring, social media analysis, and recommender systems. The design of stream learning methods faces significant research challenges; from the nonstationary nature of the data (referred to as concept drift) and the fact that data streams are typically not annotated with the ground truth, to the requirement that such methods should process large amounts of data in real-time with limited memory. This work proposes the SiameseDuo++ method, which uses active learning to automatically select instances for a human expert to label according to a budget. Specifically, it incrementally trains two siamese neural networks which operate in synergy, augmented by generated examples. Both the proposed active learning strategy and augmentation operate in the latent space. SiameseDuo++ addresses the aforementioned challenges by operating with limited memory and limited labelling budget. Simulation experiments show that the proposed method outperforms strong baselines and state-of-the-art methods in terms of learning speed and/or performance. To promote open science we publicly release our code and datasets.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Transformer-based Multivariate Time Series Anomaly Localization

With the growing complexity of Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) and the integration of Internet of Things (IoT), the use of sensors for online monitoring generates large volume of multivariate time series (MTS) data. Consequently, the need for robust anomaly diagnosis in MTS is paramount to maintaining system reliability and safety. While significant advancements have been made in anomaly detection, localization remains a largely underexplored area, though crucial for intelligent decision-making. This paper introduces a novel transformer-based model for unsupervised anomaly diagnosis in MTS, with a focus on improving localization performance, through an in-depth analysis of the self-attention mechanism's learning behavior under both normal and anomalous conditions. We formulate the anomaly localization problem as a three-stage process: time-step, window, and segment-based. This leads to the development of the Space-Time Anomaly Score (STAS), a new metric inspired by the connection between transformer latent representations and space-time statistical models. STAS is designed to capture individual anomaly behaviors and inter-series dependencies, delivering enhanced localization performance. Additionally, the Statistical Feature Anomaly Score (SFAS) complements STAS by analyzing statistical features around anomalies, with their combination helping to reduce false alarms. Experiments on real world and synthetic datasets illustrate the model's superiority over state-of-the-art methods in both detection and localization tasks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Cooperative Aerial Robot Inspection Challenge: A Benchmark for Heterogeneous Multi-UAV Planning and Lessons Learned

We propose the Cooperative Aerial Robot Inspection Challenge (CARIC), a simulation-based benchmark for motion planning algorithms in heterogeneous multi-UAV systems. CARIC features UAV teams with complementary sensors, realistic constraints, and evaluation metrics prioritizing inspection quality and efficiency. It offers a ready-to-use perception-control software stack and diverse scenarios to support the development and evaluation of task allocation and motion planning algorithms. Competitions using CARIC were held at IEEE CDC 2023 and the IROS 2024 Workshop on Multi-Robot Perception and Navigation, attracting innovative solutions from research teams worldwide. This paper examines the top three teams from CDC 2023, analyzing their exploration, inspection, and task allocation strategies while drawing insights into their performance across scenarios. The results highlight the task's complexity and suggest promising directions for future research in cooperative multi-UAV systems.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2025

Online Detection of Water Contamination Under Concept Drift

Water Distribution Networks (WDNs) are vital infrastructures, and contamination poses serious public health risks. Harmful substances can interact with disinfectants like chlorine, making chlorine monitoring essential for detecting contaminants. However, chlorine sensors often become unreliable and require frequent calibration. This study introduces the Dual-Threshold Anomaly and Drift Detection (AD&DD) method, an unsupervised approach combining a dual-threshold drift detection mechanism with an LSTM-based Variational Autoencoder(LSTM-VAE) for real-time contamination detection. Tested on two realistic WDNs, AD&DD effectively identifies anomalies with sensor offsets as concept drift, and outperforms other methods. A proposed decentralized architecture enables accurate contamination detection and localization by deploying AD&DD on selected nodes.

cs.LG↗