SearcharxivSearch

arXiv subjects

Marios Polycarpou

Publications and source records attributed to Marios Polycarpou.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

Resilient Class-Incremental Learning: on the Interplay of Drifting, Unlabelled and Imbalanced Data Streams

In today's connected world, the generation of massive streaming data across diverse domains has become commonplace. In the presence of concept drift, class imbalance, label scarcity, and new class emergence, they jointly degrade representation stability, bias learning toward outdated distributions, and reduce the resilience and reliability of detection in dynamic environments. This paper proposes SCIL (Streaming Class-Incremental Learning) to address these challenges. The SCIL framework integrates an autoencoder (AE) with a multi-layer perceptron for multi-class prediction, uses a dual-loss strategy (classification and reconstruction) for prediction and new class detection, employs corrected pseudo-labels for online training, manages classes with queues, and applies oversampling to handle imbalance. The rationale behind the method's structure is elucidated through ablation studies and a comprehensive experimental evaluation is performed using both real-world and synthetic datasets that feature class imbalance, incremental classes, and concept drifts. Our results demonstrate that SCIL outperforms strong baselines and state-of-the-art methods. Based on our commitment to Open Science, we make our code and datasets available to the community.

cs.LG

The Battle of the Water Futures

The highly anticipated 'Battle of the Water Networks' is back with a new challenge for the water community. This competition will be hosted at the 4th International Joint Conference on Water Distribution Systems Analysis and Computing and Control in the Water Industry (WDSA/CCWI 2026), taking place in Paphos, Cyprus, from May 18-21, 2026. This competition embodies the core mission of Water-Futures and the theme for WDSA/CCWI 2026: "Designing the next generation of urban water (and wastewater) systems." The objective is to design and operate a water distribution system over a long-term horizon under deep uncertainty, with interventions applied in stages. For the first time, this challenge features a staged-design approach, unobservable and unknown uncertainties, and incorporates elements of policymaking and artificial intelligence. The solutions will be assessed using a transparent and inspectable open-source evaluation framework.

eess.SY

Unsupervised Unlearning of Concept Drift with Autoencoders

Concept drift refers to a change in the data distribution affecting the data stream of future samples. Consequently, learning models operating on the data stream might become obsolete, and need costly and difficult adjustments such as retraining or adaptation. Existing methods usually implement a local concept drift adaptation scheme, where either incremental learning of the models is used, or the models are completely retrained when a drift detection mechanism triggers an alarm. This paper proposes an alternative approach in which an unsupervised and model-agnostic concept drift adaptation method at the global level is introduced, based on autoencoders. Specifically, the proposed method aims to ``unlearn'' the concept drift without having to retrain or adapt any of the learning models operating on the data. An extensive experimental evaluation is conducted in two application domains. We consider a realistic water distribution network with more than 30 models in-place, from which we create 200 simulated data sets / scenarios. We further consider an image-related task to demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

cs.LG

On the stability properties of power networks with time-varying inertia

A major transition in modern power systems is the replacement of conventional generation units with renewable sources of energy. The latter results in lower rotational inertia which compromises the stability of the power system, as testified by the growing number of frequency incidents. To resolve this problem, numerous studies have proposed the use of virtual inertia to improve the stability properties of the power grid. In this study, we consider how inertia variations, resulting from the application of control action associated with virtual inertia, may affect the stability properties of the power network within the primary frequency control timeframe. We consider the interaction between the frequency dynamics and a broad class of power supply dynamics in the presence of time-varying inertia and provide locally verifiable conditions, that enable scalable designs, such that stability is guaranteed. To complement the presented stability analysis and highlight the dangers arising from varying inertia, we provide analytic conditions that enable to deduce instability from single-bus inertia fluctuations. Our analytical results are validated with simulations on the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) 140-bus and the IEEE New York/New England 68-bus systems, where we demonstrate how inertia variations may induce large frequency oscillations and show that the application of the proposed conditions yields a stable response.

math.OC

One Explanation to Rule them All -- Ensemble Consistent Explanations

Transparency is a major requirement of modern AI based decision making systems deployed in real world. A popular approach for achieving transparency is by means of explanations. A wide variety of different explanations have been proposed for single decision making systems. In practice it is often the case to have a set (i.e. ensemble) of decisions that are used instead of a single decision only, in particular in complex systems. Unfortunately, explanation methods for single decision making systems are not easily applicable to ensembles -- i.e. they would yield an ensemble of individual explanations which are not necessarily consistent, hence less useful and more difficult to understand than a single consistent explanation of all observed phenomena. We propose a novel concept for consistently explaining an ensemble of decisions locally with a single explanation -- we introduce a formal concept, as well as a specific implementation using counterfactual explanations.

cs.AI

Nonlinear Discrete-time System Identification without Persistence of Excitation: Finite-time Concurrent Learning Methods

This paper deals with the problem of finite-time learning for unknown discrete-time nonlinear systems' dynamics, without the requirement of the persistence of excitation. Two finite-time concurrent learning methods are presented to approximate the uncertainties of the discrete-time nonlinear systems in an online fashion by employing current data along with recorded experienced data satisfying an easy-to-check rank condition on the richness of the recorded data which is less restrictive in comparison with persistence of excitation condition. For the proposed finite-time concurrent learning methods, rigorous proofs guarantee the finite-time convergence of the estimated parameters to their optimal values based on the discrete-time Lyapunov analysis. Compared with the existing work in the literature, simulation results illustrate that the proposed methods can timely and precisely approximate the uncertainties.

eess.SY

Optimal secondary frequency regulation with on-off loads in power networks

Load side participation can provide support to the power network by appropriately adapting the demand when required. In addition, it enables an economically improved power allocation. In this study, we consider the problem of providing an optimal power allocation among generation and on-off loads within the secondary frequency control timeframe. In particular, we consider a mixed integer optimization problem which ensures that the secondary frequency control objectives (i.e. generation/demand balance and the frequency attaining its nominal value at steady state) are satisfied. We present analytical conditions on the generation and on-off load profiles such that an $ε$-optimality interpretation of the steady state power allocation is obtained, providing a non-conservative value for $ε$. Moreover, we develop a hierarchical control scheme that provides on-off load values that satisfy the proposed conditions. We study the interaction of the proposed control scheme with the physical dynamics of the power network and provide analytic stability guarantees. Our results are verified with numerical simulations on the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) 140-bus system, where it is demonstrated that the proposed algorithm yields a close to optimal power allocation.

math.OC

Optimal intervention strategies to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic effects

Governments across the world are currently facing the task of selecting suitable intervention strategies to cope with the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. This is a highly challenging task, since harsh measures may result in economic collapse while a relaxed strategy might lead to a high death toll. Motivated by this, we consider the problem of forming intervention strategies to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic that optimize the trade-off between the number of deceases and the socio-economic costs. We demonstrate that the healthcare capacity and the testing rate highly affect the optimal intervention strategies. Moreover, we propose an approach that enables practical strategies, with a small number of policies and policy changes, that are close to optimal. In particular, we provide tools to decide which policies should be implemented and when should a government change to a different policy. Finally, we consider how the presented results are affected by uncertainty in the initial reproduction number and infection fatality rate and demonstrate that parametric uncertainty has a more substantial effect when stricter strategies are adopted.

math.OC

Fast Shortest Path Routing in Transportation Networks with Time-Dependent Road Speeds

The current paper deals with the subject of shortest path routing in transportation networks (in terms of travelling time), where the speed in several of the network's roads is a function of the time interval. The main contribution of the paper is a procedure that is faster compared to the conventional approaches, that derives the road's traversal time according to the time instant of departure, for the case where the road's speed has a constant value inside each time interval (in general, different value for each time interval). Furthermore, the case where the road's speed is a linear function of time inside each time interval (in general, different linear function for each time interval) is investigated. A procedure that derives the road's traversal time according to the time instant of departure is proposed for this case as well. The proposed procedures are combined with Dijkstra's algorithm and the resulting algorithms, that are practically applicable and of low complexity, provide optimal shortest path routing in the networks under investigation.

cs.DS