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Marius Millea

Publications and source records attributed to Marius Millea.

18 recordsLinked to original sources

Flinch: A Differentiable Framework for Field-Level Inference of Cosmological parameters from curved sky data

We present Flinch, a fully differentiable and high-performance framework for field-level inference on angular maps, developed to improve the flexibility and scalability of current methodologies. Flinch is integrated with differentiable cosmology tools, allowing gradients to propagate from individual map pixels directly to the underlying cosmological parameters. This architecture allows cosmological inference to be carried out directly from the map itself, bypassing the need to specify a likelihood for intermediate summary statistics. Using simulated, masked CMB temperature maps, we validate our pipeline by reconstructing both maps and angular power spectra, and we perform cosmological parameter inference with competitive precision. In comparison with the standard pseudo-$C_\ell$ approach, Flinch delivers substantially tighter constraints, with error bars reduced by up to 40%. Among the gradient-based samplers routinely employed in field-level analyses, we further show that MicroCanonical Langevin Monte Carlo provides orders-of-magnitude improvements in sampling efficiency over currently employed Hamiltonian Monte Carlo samplers, greatly reducing computational expense.

astro-ph.CO

Unified and consistent structure growth measurements from joint ACT, SPT and \textit{Planck} CMB lensing

We present the tightest cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing constraints to date on the growth of structure by combining CMB lensing measurements from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT), the South Pole Telescope (SPT) and \textit{Planck}. Each of these surveys individually provides lensing measurements with similarly high statistical power, achieving signal-to-noise ratios of approximately 40. The combined lensing bandpowers represent the most precise CMB lensing power spectrum measurement to date with a signal-to-noise ratio of 61 and an amplitude of $A_\mathrm{lens}^\mathrm{recon} = 1.025 \pm 0.017$ with respect to the theory prediction from the best-fit CMB \textit{Planck}-ACT cosmology. The bandpowers from all three lensing datasets, analyzed jointly, yield a $1.6\%$ measurement of the parameter combination $S_8^\mathrm{CMBL} \equiv \sigma_8\,(\Omega_m/0.3)^{0.25} = 0.825^{+0.015}_{-0.013}$. Including Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) data improves the constraint on the amplitude of matter fluctuations to $\sigma_8 = 0.829 \pm 0.009$ (a $1.1\%$ determination). When combining with uncalibrated supernovae from \texttt{Pantheon+}, we present a $4\%$ sound-horizon-independent estimate of $H_0=66.4\pm2.5\,\mathrm{km\,s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}} $. The joint lensing constraints on structure growth and present-day Hubble rate are fully consistent with a $\Lambda$CDM model fit to the primary CMB data from \textit{Planck} and ACT. While the precise upper limit is sensitive to the choice of data and underlying model assumptions, when varying the neutrino mass sum within the $\Lambda\mathrm{CDM}$ cosmological model, the combination of primary CMB, BAO and CMB lensing drives the probable upper limit for the mass sum towards lower values, comparable to the minimum mass prior required by neutrino oscillation experiments.

astro-ph.CO

Impact & Mitigation of Polarized Extragalactic Foregrounds on Bayesian Cosmic Microwave Background Lensing

Future low-noise cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing measurements from e.g., CMB-S4 will be polarization dominated, rather than temperature dominated. In this new regime, statistically optimal lensing reconstructions outperform the standard quadratic estimator, but their sensitivity to extragalactic polarized foregrounds has not been quantified. Using realistic simulations of polarized radio and infrared point sources, we show for the first time that optimal Bayesian lensing from a CMB-S4-like experiment is insensitive to the expected level of polarized extragalactic foregrounds after masking, as long as an accurate foreground power spectrum is included in the analysis. For more futuristic experiments where these foregrounds could cause a detectable bias, we propose a new method to jointly fit for lensing and the Poisson foregrounds, generalizing the bias hardening from the standard quadratic estimator to Bayesian lensing.

astro-ph.CO

Inference of gravitational lensing and patchy reionization with future CMB data

We develop an optimal Bayesian solution for jointly inferring secondary signals in the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) originating from gravitational lensing and from patchy screening during the epoch of reionization. This method is able to extract full information content from the data, improving upon previously considered quadratic estimators for lensing and screening. We forecast constraints using the Marginal Unbiased Score Expansion (MUSE) method, and show that they are largely dominated by CMB polarization, and depend on the exact details of reionization. For models consistent with current data which produce the largest screening signals, a detection (3\,$\sigma$) of the cross-correlation between lensing and screening is possible with SPT-3G, and a detection of the auto-correlation is possible with CMB-S4. Models with the lowest screening signals evade the sensitivity of SPT-3G, but are still possible to detect with CMB-S4 via their lensing cross-correlation.

astro-ph.CO

Improved Marginal Unbiased Score Expansion (MUSE) via Implicit Differentiation

We apply the technique of implicit differentiation to boost performance, reduce numerical error, and remove required user-tuning in the Marginal Unbiased Score Expansion (MUSE) algorithm for hierarchical Bayesian inference. We demonstrate these improvements on three representative inference problems: 1) an extended Neal's funnel 2) Bayesian neural networks, and 3) probabilistic principal component analysis. On our particular test cases, MUSE with implicit differentiation is faster than Hamiltonian Monte Carlo by factors of 155, 397, and 5, respectively, or factors of 65, 278, and 1 without implicit differentiation, and yields good approximate marginal posteriors. The Julia and Python MUSE packages have been updated to use implicit differentiation, and can solve problems defined by hand or with any of a number of popular probabilistic programming languages and automatic differentiation backends.

stat.ML

MUSE: Marginal Unbiased Score Expansion and Application to CMB Lensing

We present the marginal unbiased score expansion (MUSE) method, an algorithm for generic high-dimensional hierarchical Bayesian inference. MUSE performs approximate marginalization over arbitrary non-Gaussian latent parameter spaces, yielding Gaussianized asymptotically unbiased and near-optimal constraints on global parameters of interest. It is computationally much cheaper than exact alternatives like Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), excelling on funnel problems which challenge HMC, and does not require any problem-specific user supervision like other approximate methods such as Variational Inference or many Simulation-Based Inference methods. MUSE makes possible the first joint Bayesian estimation of the delensed Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) power spectrum and gravitational lensing potential power spectrum, demonstrated here on a simulated data set as large as the upcoming South Pole Telescope 3G 1500 deg$^2$ survey, corresponding to a latent dimensionality of ${\sim}\,6$ million and of order 100 global bandpower parameters. On a subset of the problem where an exact but more expensive HMC solution is feasible, we verify that MUSE yields nearly optimal results. We also demonstrate that existing spectrum-based forecasting tools which ignore pixel-masking underestimate predicted error bars by only ${\sim}\,10\%$. This method is a promising path forward for fast lensing and delensing analyses which will be necessary for future CMB experiments such as SPT-3G, Simons Observatory, or CMB-S4, and can complement or supersede existing HMC approaches. The success of MUSE on this challenging problem strengthens its case as a generic procedure for a broad class of high-dimensional inference problems.

astro-ph.CO

New cosmological bounds on axions in the XENON1T window

Motivated by a possible $\sim$ eV-mass solar axion explanation to excess events recently detected by the XENON1T experiment, I revisit and update cosmological constraints on axions in this mass range. I find that of the allowed XENON1T mass window (0.1 - 4.1 eV for DFSZ axions and 46 - 56 eV for KSVZ axions), only 0.1 - 0.35 eV remains viable at 95% confidence given current cosmological probes. If a 0.35 eV DFSZ axion existed, it would be detectable at ${\sim}7σ$ via two independent physical effects with the next-generation CMB-S4 experiment. Conversely, even a combination of CMB-S4 with future DESI measurements falls just short of guaranteeing a 0.1 eV-mass axion can be detected or ruled out. A future limit of $ΔN_{\rm eff}<0.027$ could rule out any generic axion-like particle across a wide range of masses as long as the reheating temperature is not too low, or alternatively, a future cosmological detection of such an axion-like particle could become the tightest existing observational lower bound on the reheating temperature.

astro-ph.CO

Bayesian delensing delight: sampling-based inference of the primordial CMB and gravitational lensing

The search for primordial gravitational waves in the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) will soon be limited by our ability to remove the lensing contamination to $B$-mode polarization. The often-used quadratic estimator for lensing is known to be suboptimal for surveys that are currently operating and will continue to become less and less efficient as instrumental noise decreases. While foregrounds can in principle be mitigated by observing in more frequency bands, progress in delensing hinges entirely on algorithmic advances. We demonstrate here a new inference method that solves this problem by sampling the exact Bayesian posterior of any desired cosmological parameters, of the gravitational lensing potential, and of the delensed CMB maps, given lensed temperature and polarization data. We validate the method using simulated CMB data with non-white noise and masking on up to 650\,deg$^2$ patches of sky. A unique strength of this approach is the ability to jointly estimate cosmological parameters which control both the primordial CMB and the lensing potential, which we demonstrate here for the first time by sampling both the tensor-to-scalar ratio, $r$, and the amplitude of the lensing potential, $A_ϕ$. The method allows us to perform the most precise check to-date of several important approximations underlying CMB-S4 $r$ forecasting, and we confirm these yield the correct expected uncertainty on $r$ to better than 10%.

astro-ph.CO

The Hubble Hunter's Guide

Measurements of the Hubble constant, and more generally measurements of the expansion rate and distances over the interval $0 < z < 1$, appear to be inconsistent with the predictions of the standard cosmological model ($Λ$CDM) given observations of cosmic microwave background temperature and polarization anisotropies. Here we consider a variety of types of departures from $Λ$CDM that could, in principle, restore concordance among these datasets, and we explain why we find almost all of them unlikely to be successful. We single out the set of solutions that increase the expansion rate in the decade of scale factor expansion just prior to recombination as the least unlikely. These solutions are themselves tightly constrained by their impact on photon diffusion and on the gravitational driving of acoustic oscillations of the modes that begin oscillating during this epoch -- modes that project on to angular scales that are very well measured. We point out that a general feature of such solutions is a residual to fits to $Λ$CDM, like the one observed in Planck power spectra. This residual drives the modestly significant inferences of angular-scale dependence to the matter density and anomalously high lensing power, puzzling aspects of a data set that is otherwise extremely well fit by $Λ$CDM.

astro-ph.CO

Matter power spectrum: from Ly$α$ forest to CMB scales

We present a new compilation of inferences of the linear 3D matter power spectrum at redshift $z\,{=}\,0$ from a variety of probes spanning several orders of magnitude in physical scale and in cosmic history. We develop a new lower-noise method for performing this inference from the latest Ly$α$ forest 1D power spectrum data. We also include cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature and polarization power spectra and lensing reconstruction data, the cosmic shear two-point correlation function, and the clustering of luminous red galaxies. We provide a Dockerized Jupyter notebook housing the fairly complex dependencies for producing the plot of these data, with the hope that groups in the future can help add to it. Overall, we find qualitative agreement between the independent measurements considered here and the standard $Λ$CDM cosmological model fit to the {\it Planck} data

astro-ph.CO

Sounds Discordant: Classical Distance Ladder & $Λ$CDM -based Determinations of the Cosmological Sound Horizon

Type Ia Supernovae, calibrated by classical distance ladder methods, can be used, in conjunction with galaxy survey two-point correlation functions, to empirically determine the size of the sound horizon $r_{\rm s}$. Assumption of the $Λ$CDM model, together with data to constrain its parameters, can also be used to determine the size of the sound horizon. Using a variety of cosmic microwave background (CMB) datasets to constrain $Λ$CDM parameters, we find the model-based sound horizon to be larger than the empirically-determined one with a statistical significance of between 2 and 3$σ$, depending on the dataset. If reconciliation requires a change to the cosmological model, we argue that change is likely to be important in the two decades of scale factor evolution prior to recombination. Future CMB observations will therefore likely be able to test any such adjustments; e.g., a third generation CMB survey like SPT-3G can achieve a three-fold improvement in the constraints on $r_{\rm s}$ in the $Λ$CDM model extended to allow additional light degrees of freedom.

astro-ph.CO

Cosmic Microwave Background Constraints in Light of Priors Over Reionization Histories

Non-parametric reconstruction or marginalization over the history of reionization using cosmic microwave background data necessarily assumes a prior over possible histories. We show that different but reasonable choices of priors can shift current and future constraints on the reionization optical depth, $τ$, or correlated parameters such as the neutrino mass sum, $Σm_ν$, at the level of 0.3-0.4$σ$, i.e., that this analysis is somewhat prior dependent. We point out some prior-related problems with the commonly used principal component reconstruction, concluding that the significance of some recent hints of early reionization in Planck 2015 data has been overestimated. We also present the first non-parametric reconstruction applied to newer Planck intermediate (2016) data and find that the hints of early reionization disappear entirely in this more precise dataset. These results limit possible explanations of the EDGES 21cm signal which would have also significantly reionized the universe at $z\,{>}\,15$. Our findings about the dependence on priors motivate the pursuit of improved data or searches for physical reionization models which can reduce the prior volume. The discussion here of priors is of general applicability to other non-parametric reconstructions, for example of the primordial power spectrum, of the recombination history, or of the expansion rate.

astro-ph.CO

Bayesian delensing of CMB temperature and polarization

We develop the first algorithm able to jointly compute the maximum {\it a posteriori} estimate of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) temperature and polarization fields, the gravitational potential by which they are lensed, and cosmological parameters such as the tensor-to-scalar ratio, $r$. This is an important step towards sampling from the joint posterior probability function of these quantities, which, assuming Gaussianity of the CMB fields and lensing potential, contains all available cosmological information and would yield theoretically optimal constraints. Attaining such optimal constraints will be crucial for next-generation CMB surveys like CMB-S4, where limits on $r$ could be improved by factors of a few over currently used sub-optimal quadratic estimators. The maximization procedure described here depends on a newly developed lensing algorithm, which we term \textsc{LenseFlow}, and which lenses a map by solving a system of ordinary differential equations. This description has conceptual advantages, such as allowing us to give a simple non-perturbative proof that the lensing determinant is equal to unity in the weak-lensing regime. The algorithm itself maintains this property even on pixelized maps, which is crucial for our purposes and unique to \textsc{LenseFlow} as compared to other lensing algorithms we have tested. It also has other useful properties such as that it can be trivially inverted (i.e. delensing) for the same computational cost as the forward operation, and can be used to compute lensing adjoint, Jacobian, and Hessian operators. We test and validate the maximization procedure on flat-sky simulations covering up to 600\,deg$^2$ with non-uniform noise and masking.

astro-ph.CO

A First Detection of the Acoustic Oscillation Phase Shift Expected from the Cosmic Neutrino Background

The unimpeded relativistic propagation of cosmological neutrinos prior to recombination of the baryon-photon plasma alters gravitational potentials and therefore the details of the time-dependent gravitational driving of acoustic oscillations. We report here a first detection of the resulting shifts in the temporal phase of the oscillations, which we infer from their signature in the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) temperature power spectrum.

astro-ph.CO

New Bounds for Axions and Axion-Like Particles with keV-GeV Masses

We give updated constraints on hypothetical light bosons with a two-photon coupling such as axions or axion-like particles (ALPs). We focus on masses and lifetimes where decays happen near big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN), thus altering the baryon-to-photon ratio and number of relativistic degrees of freedom between the BBN epoch and the cosmic microwave background (CMB) last scattering epoch, in particular such that $N_{\rm eff}^{\rm CMB} < N_{\rm eff}^{\rm BBN}$ and $η^{\rm CMB} < η^{\rm BBN}$. New constraints presented here come from Planck measurements of the CMB power spectrum combined with the latest inferences of primordial $^4$He and D/H abundances. We find that a previously allowed region in parameter space near $m=1\,\rm MeV$ and $τ=100\,\rm ms$, consistent with a QCD axion arising from a symmetry breaking near the electroweak scale, is now ruled out at $>3σ$ by the combination of CMB+D/H measurements if only ALPs and three thermalized neutrino species contribute to $N_{\rm eff}$. The bound relaxes if there are additional light degrees of freedom present which, in this scenario, have their contribution limited to $ΔN_{\rm eff}=1.1\pm0.3$. We give forecasts showing that a number of experiments are expected to reach the sensitivity needed to further test this region, such as Stage-IV CMB and SUPER-KEKB, the latter a direct test insensitive to any extra degrees of freedom.

astro-ph.CO

How Massless Neutrinos Affect the Cosmic Microwave Background Damping Tail

We explore the physical origin and robustness of constraints on the energy density in relativistic species prior to and during recombination, often expressed as constraints on an effective number of neutrino species, Neff. Constraints from current data combination of Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) and South Pole Telescope (SPT) are almost entirely due to the impact of the neutrinos on the expansion rate, and how those changes to the expansion rate alter the ratio of the photon diffusion scale to the sound horizon scale at recombination. We demonstrate that very little of the constraining power comes from the early Integrated Sachs-Wolfe (ISW) effect, and also provide a first determination of the amplitude of the early ISW effect. Varying the fraction of baryonic mass in Helium, Yp, also changes the ratio of damping to sound-horizon scales. We discuss the physical effects that prevent the resulting near-degeneracy between Neff and Yp from being a complete one. Examining light element abundance measurements, we see no significant evidence for evolution of Neff and the baryon-to-photon ratio from the epoch of big bang nucleosynthesis to decoupling. Finally, we consider measurements of the distance-redshift relation at low to intermediate redshifts and their implications for the value of Neff.

astro-ph.CO

Modeling Extragalactic Foregrounds and Secondaries for Unbiased Estimation of Cosmological Parameters From Primary CMB Anisotropy

Using the latest physical modeling and constrained by the most recent data, we develop a phenomenological parameterized model of the contributions to intensity and polarization maps at millimeter wavelengths from external galaxies and Sunyaev-Zeldovich effects. We find such modeling to be necessary for estimation of cosmological parameters from Planck data. For example, ignoring the clustering of the infrared background would result in a bias in n_s of 7 sigma. We show that the simultaneous marginalization over a full foreground model can eliminate such biases, while increasing the statistical uncertainty in cosmological parameters by less than 20%. The small increases in uncertainty can be significantly reduced with the inclusion of higher-resolution ground-based data. The multi-frequency analysis we employ involves modeling 46 total power spectra and marginalization over 17 foreground parameters. We show that we can also reduce the data to a best estimate of the CMB power spectra, and just two principal components (with constrained amplitudes) describing residual foreground contamination.

astro-ph.CO