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Mark G. Rutten

Publications and source records attributed to Mark G. Rutten.

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3D Meteoroid Trajectories

Meteoroid modelling of fireball data typically uses a one dimensional model along a straight line triangulated trajectory. The assumption of a straight line trajectory has been considered an acceptable simplification for fireballs, but it has not been rigorously tested. The unique capability of the Desert Fireball Network (DFN) to triangulate discrete observation times gives the opportunity to investigate the deviation of a meteoroid's position to different model fits. Here we assess the viability of a straight line assumption for fireball data in two meteorite-dropping test cases observed by the Desert Fireball Network (DFN) in Australia -- one over 21 seconds (\textit{DN151212\_03}), one under 5 seconds (\textit{DN160410\_03}). We show that a straight line is not valid for these two meteorite dropping events and propose a three dimensional particle filter to model meteoroid positions without any straight line constraints. The single body equations in three dimensions, along with the luminosity equation, are applied to the particle filter methodology described by \citet{Sansom2017}. Modelling fireball camera network data in three dimensions has not previously been attempted. This allows the raw astrometric, line-of-sight observations to be incorporated directly. In analysing these two DFN events, the triangulated positions based on a straight line assumption result in the modelled meteoroid positions diverging up to $3.09\, km$ from the calculated observed point (for \textit{DN151212\_03}). Even for the more typical fireball event, \textit{DN160410\_03}, we see a divergence of up to $360$\,m. As DFN observations are typically precise to $<100$\,m, it is apparent that the assumption of a straight line is an oversimplification that will affect orbit calculations and meteorite search regions for a significant fraction of events.

astro-ph.EP

Analysing Meteoroid Flights Using Particle Filters

Fireball observations from camera networks provide position and time information along the trajectory of a meteoroid that is transiting our atmosphere. The complete dynamical state of the meteoroid at each measured time can be estimated using Bayesian filtering techniques. A particle filter is a novel approach to modelling the uncertainty in meteoroid trajectories and incorporates errors in initial parameters, the dynamical model used and observed position measurements. Unlike other stochastic approaches, a particle filter does not require predefined values for initial conditions or unobservable trajectory parameters. The Bunburra Rockhole fireball (Spurný et al. 2012), observed by the Australian Desert Fireball Network (DFN) in 2007, is used to determine the effectiveness of a particle filter for use in fireball trajectory modelling. The final mass is determined to be $2.16\pm1.33\, kg$ with a final velocity of $6030\pm216\, m\,s^{-1}$, similar to previously calculated values. The full automatability of this approach will allow an unbiased evaluation of all events observed by the DFN and lead to a better understanding of the dynamical state and size frequency distribution of asteroid and cometary debris in the inner solar system.

astro-ph.EP