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Mark Hannam

Publications and source records attributed to Mark Hannam.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Compactness Inference in Gravitational-Wave Mergers with PhenomDECO: Catalog Benchmarks and Robustness Diagnostics

Several gravitational wave (GW) observations have been identified as binary black hole (BBH) mergers, including systems with component masses that challenge typical formation scenarios. These observations motivate broader tests of whether the detected sources are consistent with this interpretation. We address this question using~\deco~, an existing phenomenological extension of a BBH model that uses an effective compactness parameter to characterize departures from the expected merger morphology. Applying this model to all high-significance BBH events from GWTC-3, we establish~\deco~as a robust test of the nature of compact binaries. In preliminary analyses we identify three recurring posterior morphologies: (i) near-Gaussian peaks consistent with the BBH expectation $C\sim0.5$, seen in 60\% of events; (ii) posteriors with additional high-compactness support $(C\ge0.8)$; and (iii) dominant low-compactness modes near $C\sim0.15$ in $\sim 20\%$ of cases. For the latter, the low-compactness modes disappear when the data, especially from Livingston, are analyzed from a higher starting frequency, indicating sensitivity to low-frequency noise artefacts. We further use time--frequency residuals, computed after subtracting maximum-likelihood BBH and~\deco~waveforms from the strain data, to assess if the data is better described by a compactness-based deformation. With this analysis, we conclude that all of the GWTC-3 observations that we have considered are indeed consistent with BBH sources. The exception is the high-mass GW231123 signal, for which data from \emph{both} detectors must be analyzed above 50Hz to remove a low-compactness mode. This study shows that low-frequency data treatment is crucial before attributing apparent deviations from BBH expectations to exotic physics, and provides a benchmark for compactness-based tests of merger morphology in current and future GW detections.

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Establishing Compactness as a Population Observable in Gravitational-Wave Astronomy

Classically, black holes (BHs) are the most compact objects predicted in nature with C=0.5 in the Schwarzschild limit; C is defined as the mass-to-radius ratio in geometric units. In this work we perform a novel measurement on the nature of putative BH mergers in the gravitational wave (GW) data by directly probing the binary's closest approach through an effective compactness parameter. We confidently show all such high-significance signals in GWTC-3 are consistent with the BH hypothesis for the first time. Our hierarchical analysis yields $C_{\rm eff} = 0.5^{+0.3}_{-0.1}$, and we further limit the merger rate of low-compactness exotic binaries to $< 0.7\,{\rm Gpc}^{-3}\,{\rm yr}^{-1}$. This work establishes compactness as a key observable in GW astronomy.

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Mapping the star formation peak with LIGO A# and Next-Generation detectors

Measuring the redshift evolution of star formation rate density is crucial in understanding the origin and evolution of galaxies and large scale structure in the universe. It is currently measured with electromagnetic probes, however, these probes often track luminosity, which is then converted to star formation rate (SFR) depending on various factors such as initial mass function, dust extinction, etc. Gravitational waves provide an independent method to constrain SFR at high redshifts by tracking the redshift evolution obtained from analysis of binary black hole mergers. In this study we explore three population models for star-formation combined with an \textit{inverse} time-delay model and demonstrate that it is possible to obtain bounds on the peak of redshift distribution with a network of upgraded LIGO detectors (such as LIGO-A#). For a year of observation, using simulated signals with a merger rate peak at $z_\text{peak}=1.5$, a network of LIGO detectors at A# sensitivity is able to constrain the peak of merger rate with a precision of $\pm 0.1$. Further, we obtain the results with a next-generation network (of Cosmic Explorer and Einstein Telescope) and conclude that the redshift distribution will be extremely well measured, with a precision of $\pm 0.02$, with future detectors.

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The High-Mass-Ratio Challenge in Gravitational Waveform Modelling

Binary black hole (BBH) mergers detected via gravitational waves are addressing key open questions in astrophysics, cosmology, and fundamental physics. Our scientific conclusions rely on extracting accurate source parameters, for which we require accurate signal modelling. It is well known that current BBH waveform models need to be improved for high-mass-ratio, strongly precessing systems, and in this paper we provide a concrete illustration of this issue, showing that the degradation in model performance is substantially more severe than might have been anticipated. We present numerical relativity (NR) simulations of precessing BBH systems with a mass ratio of 18 and a dimensionless spin of 0.8 on the larger black hole (with the smaller black hole non-spinning), covering five values of spin misalignment. We assess the accuracy of state-of-the-art waveform models in this region of parameter space by computing the standard mismatch between the models and the NR waveforms. We find that all current waveform models often exhibit significant mismatches ($\gtrsim$0.1), indicating poor performance in this regime. We also perform limited parameter estimation using a subset of state-of-the-art waveform models, injecting these NR simulations as signals into the three-detector LIGO-Virgo network. In some cases we find errors in mass measurements of over 100%, dramatically illustrating that substantial improvements are required in existing waveform models. The numerical simulations presented here will be valuable for calibrating future BBH waveform models in this region of parameter space.

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PhenomXPNR: An improved gravitational wave model linking precessing inspirals and NR-calibrated merger-ringdown

We present the frequency-domain quasi-circular precessing binary-black-hole model PhenomXPNR. This model combines the most precise available post-Newtonian description of the evolution of the precession dynamics through inspiral with merger-ringdown model informed by numerical relativity. This, along with a phenomenological model of the dominant multipole asymmetries, results in the most accurate and complete representation of the physics of precessing binaries natively in the frequency-domain to date. All state-of-the-art precessing models show bias when inferring binary parameters in certain regions of the parameter space. We demonstrate that the developments presented ensure that for some precessing systems PhenomXPNR shows the least degree of bias. Further, as a phenomenological, frequency-domain model, PhenomXPNR remains one of the most computationally efficient models available and is therefore well-suited to the era of gravitational-wave astronomy with its ever growing rate of detected signals.

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On the use and interpretation of signal-model indistinguishability measures for gravitational-wave astronomy

The difference ("mismatch") between two gravitational-wave (GW) signals is often used to estimate the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) at which they will be distinguishable in a measurement or, alternatively, when the errors in a signal model will lead to biased measurements. It is well known that the standard approach to calculate this "indistinguishability SNR" is too conservative: a model may fail the criterion at a given SNR, but not necessarily incur a biased measurement of any individual parameters. This problem can be solved by taking into account errors orthogonal to the model space (which therefore do not induce a bias), and calculating indistinguishability SNRs for individual parameters, rather than the full $N$-dimensional parameter space. We illustrate this approach with the simple example of aligned-spin binary-black-hole signals, and calculate accurate estimates of the SNR at which each parameter measurement will be biased. In general biases occur at much higher SNRs than predicted from the standard mismatch calculation. Which parameters are most easily biased depends sensitively on the details of a given waveform model, and the location in parameter space, and in some cases the bias SNR is as high as the conservative estimate. We also illustrate how the parameter bias SNR can be used to robustly specify waveform accuracy requirements for future detectors.

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On the Identification of Exotic Compact Binaries with Gravitational Waves: a Phenomenological approach

Gravitational wave (GW) astronomy has been hailed as a gateway to discovering unexpected phenomena in the universe. Over the last decade there have been close to one hundred GW observations of compact-binary mergers. While these signals are largely consistent with mergers of binary black holes, binary neutron stars, or black hole-neutron star systems, some events suggest the intriguing possibility of binaries involving exotic compact objects (ECOs). Identifying and characterising an ECO merger would require accurate ECO waveform models. Using large numbers of numerical relativity simulations to develop customised models for ECO mergers akin to those used for binary black holes, would be not only computationally expensive but also challenging due to the limited understanding of the underlying physics. Alternatively, key physical imprints of the ECO on the inspiral or merger could in principle be incorporated phenomenologically into waveform models, sufficient to quantify generic properties. In this work we present a first application of this idea to assess the detectability and distinguishability of ECO mergers, and we propose a phenomenological approach that can iteratively incorporate features of ECO mergers, laying the groundwork for an effective exotic compact object identifier in compact binary coalescences. Using Bayesian parameter estimation on the data for the GW event GW150914, we find the inferred compactness to be consistent with that expected for black holes, within this framework. The efficacy of the identifier can be refined by adding information from numerical relativity simulations involving fundamental fields. Conversely, such an identifier framework can help focus future numerical relativity and modeling efforts for exotic objects.

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Impact of anti-symmetric contributions to signal multipoles in the measurement of black-hole spins

Many current models for the gravitational-wave signal from precessing black-hole binaries neglect an asymmetry in the $\pm m$ multipoles. The asymmetry is weak, but is responsible for out-of-plane recoil, which for the final black hole can be several thousand km/s. In this work we show that the multipole asymmetry is also necessary to accurately measure the black-hole spins. We consider synthetic signals calculated from the numerical relativity surrogate model NRSur7dq4, which includes the multipole asymmetry, and measure the signal parameters using two versions of the same model, one with and one without the multipole asymmetry included. We find that in high signal-to-noise-ratio observations where the spin magnitude and direction can in principle be measured accurately, neglecting the multipole asymmetry can result in biased measurements of these quantities. Measurements of the black-hole masses and the standard aligned-spin combination $\chi_{\rm eff}$ are not in general strongly affected. As an illustration of the impact of the multipole asymmetry on a real signal we consider the LVK observation GW200129_065458, and find that the inclusion of the multipole asymmetry is necessary to identify the binary as unequal-mass and a high in-plane spin in the primary.

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PhenomXO4a: a phenomenological gravitational-wave model for precessing black-hole binaries with higher multipoles and asymmetries

In this work we introduce PhenomXO4a, the first phenomenological, frequency-domain gravitational waveform model to incorporate multipole asymmetries and precession angles tuned to numerical relativity. We build upon the modeling work that produced the PhenomPNR model and incorporate our additions into the IMRPhenomX framework, retuning the coprecessing frame model and extending the tuned precession angles to higher signal multipoles. We also include, for the first time in frequency-domain models, a recent model for spin-precession-induced multipolar asymmetry in the coprecessing frame to the dominant gravitational-wave multipoles. The accuracy of the full model and its constituent components is assessed through comparison to numerical relativity and numerical relativity surrogate waveforms by computing mismatches and performing parameter estimation studies. We show that, for the dominant signal multipole, we retain the modeling improvements seen in the PhenomPNR model. We find that the relative accuracy of current full IMR models varies depending on location in parameter space and the comparison metric, and on average they are of comparable accuracy. However, we find that variations in the pointwise accuracy do not necessarily translate into large biases in the parameter estimation recoveries.

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Revisiting the cosmic string origin of GW190521

For the first time we analyse gravitational-wave strain data using waveforms constructed from strong gravity simulations of cosmic string loops collapsing to Schwarzschild black holes; a previously unconsidered source. Since the expected signal is dominated by a black-hole ringdown, it can mimic the observed gravitational waves from high-mass binary black hole mergers. To illustrate this, we consider GW190521, a short duration gravitational-wave event observed in the third LIGO--Virgo--KAGRA observing run. We show that describing this event as a collapsing cosmic string loop is favoured over previous cosmic string analyses by an approximate log Bayes factor of $22$. The binary black hole hypothesis is still preferred, mostly because the cosmic string remnant is non-spinning. It remains an open question whether a spinning remnant could form from loops with angular momentum, but if possible, it would likely bring into contention the binary black hole preference. Finally, we suggest that searches for ringdown-only waveforms would be a viable approach for identifying collapsing cosmic string events and estimating their event rate. This work opens up an important new direction for the cosmic-string and gravitational-wave communities.

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Waveform Modelling for the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna

LISA, the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna, will usher in a new era in gravitational-wave astronomy. As the first anticipated space-based gravitational-wave detector, it will expand our view to the millihertz gravitational-wave sky, where a spectacular variety of interesting new sources abound: from millions of ultra-compact binaries in our Galaxy, to mergers of massive black holes at cosmological distances; from the beginnings of inspirals that will venture into the ground-based detectors' view to the death spiral of compact objects into massive black holes, and many sources in between. Central to realising LISA's discovery potential are waveform models, the theoretical and phenomenological predictions of the pattern of gravitational waves that these sources emit. This white paper is presented on behalf of the Waveform Working Group for the LISA Consortium. It provides a review of the current state of waveform models for LISA sources, and describes the significant challenges that must yet be overcome.

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First frequency-domain phenomenological model of the multipole asymmetry in gravitational-wave signals from binary-black-hole coalescence

Gravitational-wave signals from binaries that contain spinning black holes in general include an asymmetry between the $+m$ and $-m$ multipoles that is not included in most signal models used in LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) analysis to date. This asymmetry manifests itself in out-of-plane recoil of the final black hole and its inclusion in signal models is necessary both to measure this recoil, but also to accurately measure the full spin information of each black hole. We present the first model of the anti-symmetric contribution to the dominant co-precessing-frame signal multipole throughout inspiral, merger and ringdown. We model the anti-symmetric contribution in the frequency domain, and take advantage of the approximations that the anti-symmetric amplitude can be modelled as a ratio of the (already modelled) symmetric amplitude, and analytic relationships between the symmetric and anti-symmetric phases during the inspiral and ringdown. The model is tuned to single-spin numerical-relativity simulations up to mass-ratio 8 and spin magnitudes of 0.8, and has been implemented in a recent phenomenological model for use in the fourth LVK observing run. However, the procedure described here can be easily applied to other time- or frequency-domain models.

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General-relativistic precession in a black-hole binary

The general-relativistic phenomenon of spin-induced orbital precession has not yet been observed in strong-field gravity. Gravitational-wave observations of binary black holes (BBHs) are prime candidates, since we expect the astrophysical binary population to contain precessing binaries. Imprints of precession have been investigated in several signals, but no definitive identification of orbital precession has been reported in any one of the 84 BBH observations to date by the Advanced LIGO and Virgo detectors. Here we report the measurement of strong-field precession in the LIGO-Virgo-Kagra (LVK) gravitational-wave signal GW200129. The binary's orbit precesses at a rate ten orders of magnitude faster than previous weak-field measurements from binary pulsars. We also find that the primary black hole is likely highly spinning. According to current binary population estimates a GW200129-like signal is extremely unlikely, and therefore presents a direct challenge to many current binary formation models.

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A catalogue of precessing black-hole-binary numerical-relativity simulations

We present a public catalogue of numerical-relativity binary-black-hole simulations. The catalogue contains datasets from 80 distinct configurations of precessing binary-black-hole systems, with mass ratios up to $m_2/m_1 = 8$, dimensionless spin magnitudes on the larger black hole up to $|\vec{S}_2|/m_2^2 = 0.8$ (the small black hole is non-spinning), and a range of five values of spin misalignment for each mass-ratio/spin combination. We discuss the physical properties of the configurations in our catalogue, and assess the accuracy of the initial configuration of each simulation and of the gravitational waveforms. We perform a careful analysis of the errors due to the finite resolution of our simulations and the finite distance from the source at which we extract the waveform data and provide a conservative estimate of the mismatch accuracy. We find that the upper limit on the mismatch uncertainty of our waveforms is $0.4\%$. In doing this we present a consistent approach to combining mismatch uncertainties from multiple error sources. We compare this release to previous catalogues and discuss how these new simulations complement the existing public datasets. In particular, this is the first catalogue to uniformly cover this parameter space of single-spin binaries and there was previously only sparse coverage of the precessing-binary parameter space for mass ratios $\gtrsim 5$. We discuss applications of these new data, and the most urgent directions for future simulation work. The public dataset can be accessed online at https://data.cardiffgravity.org/bam-catalogue/.

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Ringdown frequencies in black holes formed from precessing black-hole binaries

We present a simple formula for the effective ringdown frequencies of the gravitational-wave signal of a precessing black-hole binary in the co-precessing frame. This formula requires only knowledge of the quasi-normal mode frequencies of the system and the value of the precession angle $β$ during ringdown. Such a formula will be useful in modelling precessing systems. We also provide a comprehensive description of the oscillations in the ringdown frequency in an inertial frame where the spin of the final black hole is in the $z$-direction. These oscillations arise due to the superposition of the prograde and retrograde frequencies. Our understanding of these oscillations can be used to extract the ratio of the amplitudes of the prograde and retrograde frequencies from numerical data. Alternatively, knowledge of this ratio of the amplitudes can be used to produce a simple model of the time domain oscillations in the ringdown frequency.

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Understanding how fast black holes spin by analysing data from the second gravitational-wave catalogue

The Advanced LIGO and Virgo detectors have now observed approximately 50 black-hole-binary mergers, from which we can begin to infer how rapidly astrophysical black holes spin. The LIGO-Virgo Collaboration (LVC) analysis of detections up to the end of the first half of the third observing run (O3a) appeared to uncover a distribution of spin magnitudes that peaks at $\sim$0.2. This is surprising: is there a black-hole formation mechanism that prefers a particular, non-zero spin magnitude, or could this be the cumulative effect of multiple formation processes? We perform an independent analysis of the most recent gravitational-wave catalogue, and find that (a) the support for the LVC spin-magnitude is tenuous; in particular, adding or removing just one signal from the catalogue can remove the statistical preference for this distribution, and (b) we find potential evidence for two spin sub-populations in the observed black holes; one with extremely low spins and one with larger spin magnitudes. We make the connection that these spin sub-populations could be correlated with the mass of the binary, with more massive binaries preferring larger spin magnitudes, and argue that this may provide evidence for hierarchical mergers in the second gravitational-wave catalogue.

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The final twist: A model of gravitational waves from precessing black-hole binaries through merger and ringdown

We present PhenomPNR, a frequency-domain phenomenological model of the gravitational-wave (GW) signal from binary-black-hole mergers that is tuned to numerical relativity (NR) simulations of precessing binaries. In many current waveform models, e.g., the "Phenom" and "EOBNR" families that have been used extensively to analyse LIGO-Virgo GW observations, analytic approximations are used to add precession effects to models of non-precessing (aligned-spin) binaries, and it is only the aligned-spin models that are fully tuned to NR results. In PhenomPNR we incorporate precessing-binary NR results in two ways: (i) we produce the first NR-tuned model of the signal-based precession dynamics through merger and ringdown, and (ii) we extend a previous aligned-spin model, PhenomD, to include the effects of misaligned spins on the signal in the co-precessing frame. The NR calibration has been performed on 40 simulations of binaries with mass ratios between 1:1 and 1:8, where the larger black hole has a dimensionless spin magnitude of 0.4 or 0.8, and we choose five angles of spin misalignment with the orbital angular momentum. PhenomPNR has a typical mismatch accuracy within 0.1% up to mass-ratio 1:4, and within 1% up to mass-ratio 1:8.

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Identifying when Precession can be Measured in Gravitational Waveforms

In binary-black-hole systems where the black-hole spins are misaligned with the orbital angular momentum, precession effects leave characteristic modulations in the emitted gravitational waveform. Here, we investigate where in the parameter space we will be able to accurately identify precession, for likely observations over coming LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA observing runs. Despite the large number of parameters that characterise a precessing binary, we perform a large scale systematic study to identify the impact of each source parameter on the measurement of precession. We simulate a fiducial binary at moderate mass-ratio, signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), and spins, such that precession will be clearly identifiable, then successively vary each parameter while holding the remaining parameters fixed. As expected, evidence for precession increases with signal-to noise-ratio (SNR), higher in-plane spins, more unequal component masses, and higher inclination, but our study provides a quantitative illustration of each of these effects, and informs our intuition on parameter dependencies that have not yet been studied in detail, for example, the effect of varying the relative strength of the two polarisations, the total mass, and the aligned-spin components. We also measure the "precession SNR" $ρ_p$, which was introduced in Refs[1,2] to quantify the signal power associated with precession. By comparing $ρ_p$ with both Bayes factors and the recovered posterior distributions, we find it is a reliable metric for measurability that accurately predicts when the detected signal contains evidence for precession.

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