arXiv subjects

Mark Hansen

Publications and source records attributed to Mark Hansen.

22 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

Connecting Surrogate Safety Measures to Crash Probablity via Causal Probabilistic Time Series Prediction

Surrogate safety measures can provide fast and pro-active safety analysis and give insights on the pre-crash process and crash failure mechanism by studying near misses. However, validating surrogate safety measures by connecting them to crashes is still an open question. This paper proposed a method to connect surrogate safety measures to crash probability using probabilistic time series prediction. The method used sequences of speed, acceleration and time-to-collision to estimate the probability density functions of those variables with transformer masked autoregressive flow (transformer-MAF). The autoregressive structure mimicked the causal relationship between condition, action and crash outcome and the probability density functions are used to calculate the conditional action probability, crash probability and conditional crash probability. The predicted sequence is accurate and the estimated probability is reasonable under both traffic conflict context and normal interaction context and the conditional crash probability shows the effectiveness of evasive action to avoid crashes in a counterfactual experiment.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

How Fast You Can Actually Fly: A Comparative Investigation of Flight Airborne Time in China and the U.S

Actual airborne time (AAT) is the time between wheels-off and wheels-on of a flight. Understanding the behavior of AAT is increasingly important given the ever growing demand for air travel and flight delays becoming more rampant. As no research on AAT exists, this paper performs the first empirical analysis of AAT behavior, comparatively for the U.S. and China. The focus is on how AAT is affected by scheduled block time (SBT), origin-destination (OD) distance, and the possible pressure to reduce AAT from other parts of flight operations. Multiple econometric models are developed. The estimation results show that in both countries AAT is highly correlated with SBT and OD distance. Flights in the U.S. are faster than in China. On the other hand, facing ground delay prior to takeoff, a flight has limited capability to speed up. The pressure from short turnaround time after landing to reduce AAT is immaterial. Sensitivity analysis of AAT to flight length and aircraft utilization is further conducted. Given the more abundant airspace, flexible routing networks, and efficient ATFM procedures, a counterfactual that the AAT behavior in the U.S. were adopted in China is examined. We find that by doing so significant efficiency gains could be achieved in the Chinese air traffic system. On average, 11.8 minutes of AAT per flight would be saved, coming from both reduction in SBT and reduction in AAT relative to the new SBT. Systemwide fuel saving would amount to over 300 million gallons with direct airline operating cost saving of nearly $1.3 billion nationwide in 2016.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2018

Predicting Aircraft Trajectories: A Deep Generative Convolutional Recurrent Neural Networks Approach

Reliable 4D aircraft trajectory prediction, whether in a real-time setting or for analysis of counterfactuals, is important to the efficiency of the aviation system. Toward this end, we first propose a highly generalizable efficient tree-based matching algorithm to construct image-like feature maps from high-fidelity meteorological datasets - wind, temperature and convective weather. We then model the track points on trajectories as conditional Gaussian mixtures with parameters to be learned from our proposed deep generative model, which is an end-to-end convolutional recurrent neural network that consists of a long short-term memory (LSTM) encoder network and a mixture density LSTM decoder network. The encoder network embeds last-filed flight plan information into fixed-size hidden state variables and feeds the decoder network, which further learns the spatiotemporal correlations from the historical flight tracks and outputs the parameters of Gaussian mixtures. Convolutional layers are integrated into the pipeline to learn representations from the high-dimension weather features. During the inference process, beam search, adaptive Kalman filter, and Rauch-Tung-Striebel smoother algorithms are used to prune the variance of generated trajectories.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2014

Anatomy of a Crash

Transportation networks constitute a critical infrastructure enabling the transfers of passengers and goods, with a significant impact on the economy at different scales. Transportation modes, whether air, road or rail, are coupled and interdependent. The frequent occurrence of perturbations on one or several modes disrupts passengers' entire journeys, directly and through ripple effects. The present paper provides a case report of the Asiana Crash in San Francisco International Airport on July 6th 2013 and its repercussions on the multimodal transportation network. It studies the resulting propagation of disturbances on the transportation infrastructure in the United States. The perturbation takes different forms and varies in scale and time frame : cancellations and delays snowball in the airspace, highway traffic near the airport is impacted by congestion in previously never congested locations, and transit passenger demand exhibit unusual traffic peaks in between airports in the Bay Area. This paper, through a case study, aims at stressing the importance of further data-driven research on interdependent infrastructure networks for increased resilience. The end goal is to form the basis for optimization models behind providing more reliable passenger door-to-door journeys.

eess.SY↗