arXiv subjects

Mark P. Richardson

Publications and source records attributed to Mark P. Richardson.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Reproducible Synthetic Clinical Letters for Seizure Frequency Information Extraction

Seizure-frequency information is important for epilepsy research and clinical care, but it is usually recorded in variable free-text clinic letters that are hard to annotate and share. We developed a reproducible, privacy-preserving framework for extracting seizure frequency using fully synthetic yet task-faithful epilepsy letters. We defined a structured label scheme covering common descriptions of seizure burden, including explicit rates, ranges, clusters, seizure-free intervals, unknown frequency, and explicit no-seizure statements. A teacher language model generated NHS-style synthetic letters paired with normalized labels, rationales, and evidence spans. We fine-tuned several open-weight language models (4B-14B parameters) on these synthetic letters to extract seizure frequency from full documents, comparing direct numeric prediction with structured label prediction and testing evidence-grounded outputs. On a clinician-checked held-out set of real clinic letters, models trained only on synthetic data generalized well, and structured labels consistently outperformed direct numeric regression. With 15,000 synthetic training letters, models achieved micro-F1 scores up to 0.788 for fine-grained categories and 0.847 for pragmatic categories; a medically oriented 4B model achieved 0.787 and 0.858, respectively. Evidence-grounded outputs also supported rapid clinical verification and error analysis. These results show that synthetic, structured, evidence-grounded supervision can enable robust seizure-frequency extraction without sharing sensitive patient text and may generalize to other temporally complex clinical information extraction tasks.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2024

Multimodal wearable EEG, EMG and accelerometry measurements improve the accuracy of tonic-clonic seizure detection in-hospital

Objective: Most current wearable tonic-clonic seizure (TCS) detection systems are based on extra-cerebral signals, such as electromyography (EMG) or accelerometry (ACC). Although many of these devices show good sensitivity in seizure detection, their false positive rates (FPR) are still relatively high. Wearable EEG may improve performance; however, studies investigating this remain scarce. This paper aims 1) to investigate the possibility of detecting TCSs with a behind-the-ear, two-channel wearable EEG, and 2) to evaluate the added value of wearable EEG to other non-EEG modalities in multimodal TCS detection. Method: We included 27 participants with a total of 44 TCSs from the European multicenter study SeizeIT2. The multimodal wearable detection system Sensor Dot (Byteflies) was used to measure two-channel, behind-the-ear EEG, EMG, electrocardiography (ECG), ACC and gyroscope (GYR). First, we evaluated automatic unimodal detection of TCSs, using performance metrics such as sensitivity, precision, FPR and F1-score. Secondly, we fused the different modalities and again assessed performance. Algorithm-labeled segments were then provided to a neurologist and a wearable data expert, who reviewed and annotated the true positive TCSs, and discarded false positives (FPs). Results: Wearable EEG outperformed the other modalities in unimodal TCS detection by achieving a sensitivity of 100.0% and a FPR of 10.3/24h (compared to 97.7% sensitivity and 30.9/24h FPR for EMG; 95.5% sensitivity and 13.9 FPR for ACC). The combination of wearable EEG and EMG achieved overall the most clinically useful performance in offline TCS detection with a sensitivity of 97.7%, a FPR of 0.4/24 h, a precision of 43.0%, and a F1-score of 59.7%. Subsequent visual review of the automated detections resulted in maximal sensitivity and zero FPs.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2020

Fighting seizures with seizures: diffusion and stability in neural systems

Seizure activity is a ubiquitous and pernicious pathophysiology that, in principle, should yield to mathematical treatments of (neuronal) ensemble dynamics - and therefore interventions on stochastic chaos. A seizure can be characterised as a deviation of neural activity from a stable dynamical regime, i.e. one in which signals fluctuate only within a limited range. In silico treatments of neural activity are an important tool for understanding how the brain can achieve stability, as well as how pathology can lead to seizures and potential strategies for mitigating instabilities, e.g. via external stimulation. Here, we demonstrate that the (neuronal) state equation used in Dynamic Causal Modelling generalises to a Fokker-Planck formalism when propagation of neuronal activity along structural connections is considered. Using the Jacobian of this generalised state equation, we show that an initially unstable system can be rendered stable via a reduction in diffusivity (i.e., connectivity that disperses neuronal fluctuations). We show, for neural systems prone to epileptic seizures, that such a reduction can be achieved via external stimulation. Specifically, we show that this stimulation should be applied in such a way as to temporarily mirror epileptic activity in the areas adjoining an affected brain region - thus 'fighting seizures with seizures'. We offer proof of principle using simulations based on functional neuroimaging data collected from patients with idiopathic generalised epilepsy, in which we successfully suppress pathological activity in a distinct sub-network. Our hope is that this technique can form the basis for real-time monitoring and intervention devices that are capable of suppressing or even preventing seizures in a non-invasive manner.

q-bio.NC↗

arXiv2020

Estimating required 'lockdown' cycles before immunity to SARS-CoV-2: Model-based analyses of susceptible population sizes, 'S0', in seven European countries including the UK and Ireland

We used Bayesian model inversion to estimate epidemic parameters from the reported case and death rates from seven countries using data from late January 2020 to April 5th 2020. Two distinct generative model types were employed: first a continuous time dynamical-systems implementation of a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model and second: a partially observable Markov Decision Process (MDP) or hidden Markov model (HMM) implementation of an SEIR model. Both models parameterise the size of the initial susceptible population (S0), as well as epidemic parameters. Parameter estimation (data fitting) was performed using a standard Bayesian scheme (variational Laplace) designed to allow for latent unobservable states and uncertainty in model parameters. Both models recapitulated the dynamics of transmissions and disease as given by case and death rates. The peaks of the current waves were predicted to be in the past for four countries (Italy, Spain, Germany and Switzerland) and to emerge in 0.5-2 weeks in Ireland and 1-3 weeks in the UK. For France one model estimated the peak within the past week and the other in the future in two weeks. Crucially, Maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimates of S0 for each country indicated effective population sizes of below 20% (of total population size), under both the continuous time and HMM models. With a Bayesian weighted average across all seven countries and both models, we estimated that 6.4% of the total population would be immune. From the two models the maximum percentage of the effective population was estimated at 19.6% of the total population for the UK, 16.7% for Ireland, 11.4% for Italy, 12.8% for Spain, 18.8% for France, 4.7% for Germany and 12.9% for Switzerland. Our results indicate that after the current wave, a large proportion of the total population will remain without immunity.

q-bio.PE↗