arXiv subjects

Mark Vogelsberger

Publications and source records attributed to Mark Vogelsberger.

At least 325 records · Page 18Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

Disruption of giant molecular clouds and formation of bound star clusters under the influence of momentum stellar feedback

Energetic feedback from star clusters plays a pivotal role in shaping the dynamical evolution of giant molecular clouds (GMCs). To study the effects of stellar feedback on the star formation efficiency of the clouds and the dynamical response of embedded star clusters, we perform a suite of isolated GMC simulations with star formation and momentum feedback subgrid models using the moving-mesh hydrodynamics code \textsc{Arepo}. The properties of our simulated GMCs span a wide range of initial mass, radius, and velocity configurations. We find that the ratio of the final stellar mass to the total cloud mass, $ε_{\rm int}$, scales strongly with the initial cloud surface density and momentum feedback strength. This correlation is explained by an analytic model that considers force balancing between gravity and momentum feedback. For all simulated GMCs, the stellar density profiles are systematically steeper than that of the gas at the epochs of the peaks of star formation, suggesting a centrally concentrated stellar distribution. We also find that star clusters are always in a sub-virial state with a virial parameter $\sim0.6$ prior to gas expulsion. Both the sub-virial dynamical state and steeper stellar density profiles prevent clusters from dispersal during the gas removal phase of their evolution. The final cluster bound fraction is a continuously increasing function of $ε_{\rm int}$. GMCs with star formation efficiency smaller than 0.5 are still able to form clusters with large bound fractions.

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arXiv2019

Baryons in the CosmicWeb of IllustrisTNG - I: Gas in Knots, Filaments, Sheets and Voids

We analyze the IllustrisTNG simulations to study the mass, volume fraction and phase distribution of gaseous baryons embedded in the knots, filaments, sheets and voids of the Cosmic Web from redshift $z=8$ to redshift $z=0$. We find that filaments host more star-forming gas than knots, and that filaments also have a higher relative mass fraction of gas in this phase than knots. We also show that the cool, diffuse Intergalactic Medium (IGM; $T<10^5 \, {\rm K}$, $ n_{\rm H}<10^{-4}(1+z) \, {\rm cm^{-3}}$) and the Warm-Hot Intergalactic Medium (WHIM; $ 10^5 \, {\rm K} <T<10^7 \, {\rm K}$, $ n_{\rm H} <10^{-4}(1+z)\, {\rm cm^{-3}}$) constitute $\sim 39\%$ and $\sim 46\%$ of the baryons at redshift $z=0$, respectively. Our results indicate that the WHIM may constitute the largest reservoir of {\it missing} baryons at redshift $z=0$. Using our Cosmic Web classification, we predict the WHIM to be the dominant baryon mass contribution in filaments and knots at redshift $z=0$, but not in sheets and voids where the cool, diffuse IGM dominates. We also characterise the evolution of WHIM and IGM from redshift $z=4$ to redshift $z=0$, and find that the mass fraction of WHIM in filaments and knots evolves only by a factor $\sim 2$ from redshift $z=0$ to $z=1$, but declines faster at higher redshift. The WHIM only occupies $4-11\%$ of the volume at redshift $0\leq z \leq 1$. We predict the existence of a significant number of currently undetected OVII and NeIX absorption systems in cosmic filaments which could be detected by future X-ray telescopes like Athena.

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arXiv2019

High redshift JWST predictions from IllustrisTNG: Dust modelling and galaxy luminosity functions

The James Webb Space Telescop (JWST) promises to revolutionise our understanding of the early Universe, and contrasting its upcoming observations with predictions of the $Λ$CDM model requires detailed theoretical forecasts. Here, we exploit the large dynamic range of the IllustrisTNG simulation suite, TNG50, TNG100, and TNG300, to derive multi-band galaxy luminosity functions from $z=2$ to $z=10$. We put particular emphasis on the exploration of different dust attenuation models to determine galaxy luminosity functions for the rest-frame ultraviolet (UV), and apparent wide NIRCam bands. Our most detailed dust model is based on continuum Monte Carlo radiative transfer calculations employing observationally calibrated dust properties. This calibration results in constraints on the redshift evolution of the dust attenuation normalisation and dust-to-metal ratios yielding a stronger redshift evolution of the attenuation normalisation compared to most previous theoretical studies. Overall we find good agreement between the rest-frame UV luminosity functions and observational data for all redshifts, also beyond the regimes used for the dust-model calibrations. Furthermore, we also recover the observed high redshift ($z=4-6$) UV luminosity versus stellar mass relation, the H$α$ versus star formation rate relation, and the H$α$ luminosity function at $z=2$. The bright end ($M_{\rm UV}>-19.5$) cumulative galaxy number densities are consistent with observational data. For the F200W NIRCam band, we predict that JWST will detect $\sim 80$ ($\sim 200$) galaxies with a signal-to-noise ratio of $10$ ($\sim 5$) within the NIRCam field of view, $2.2\times2.2 \,{\rm arcmin}^{2}$, for a total exposure time of $10^5{\rm s}$ in the redshift range $z=8 \pm 0.5$. These numbers drop to $\sim 10$ ($\sim 40$) for an exposure time of $10^4{\rm s}$.

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arXiv2019

Automated Distant Galaxy Merger Classifications from Space Telescope Images using the Illustris Simulation

We present image-based evolution of galaxy mergers from the Illustris cosmological simulation at 12 time-steps over 0.5 < z < 5. To do so, we created approximately one million synthetic deep Hubble Space Telescope and James Webb Space Telescope images and measured common morphological indicators. Using the merger tree, we assess methods to observationally select mergers with stellar mass ratios as low as 10:1 completing within +/- 250 Myr of the mock observation. We confirm that common one- or two-dimensional statistics select mergers so defined with low purity and completeness, leading to high statistical errors. As an alternative, we train redshift-dependent random forests (RFs) based on 5-10 inputs. Cross-validation shows the RFs yield superior, yet still imperfect, measurements of the late-stage merger fraction, and they select more mergers in bulge-dominated galaxies. When applied to CANDELS morphology catalogs, the RFs estimate a merger rate increasing to at least z = 3, albeit two times higher than expected by theory. This suggests possible mismatches in the feedback-determined morphologies, but affirms the basic understanding of galaxy merger evolution. The RFs achieve completeness of roughly 70% at 0.5 < z < 3, and purity increasing from 10% at z = 0.5 to 60% at z = 3. At earlier times, the training sets are insufficient, motivating larger simulations and smaller time sampling. By blending large surveys and large simulations, such machine learning techniques offer a promising opportunity to teach us the strengths and weaknesses of inferences about galaxy evolution.

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arXiv2019

The ALMA Spectroscopic Survey in the HUDF: the molecular gas content of galaxies and tensions with IllustrisTNG and the Santa Cruz SAM

The ALMA Spectroscopic Survey in the Hubble Ultra Deep Field (ASPECS) provides new constraints for galaxy formation models on the molecular gas properties of galaxies. We compare results from ASPECS to predictions from two cosmological galaxy formation models: the IllustrisTNG hydrodynamical simulations and the Santa Cruz semi-analytic model (SC SAM). We explore several recipes to model the H$_2$ content of galaxies, finding them to be consistent with one another, and take into account the sensitivity limits and survey area of ASPECS. For a canonical CO-to-H$_2$ conversion factor of $α_{\rm CO} = 3.6\,\rm{M}_\odot/(\rm{K}\,\rm{km/s}\,\rm{pc}^{2})$ the results of our work include: (1) the H$_2$ mass of $z>1$ galaxies predicted by the models as a function of their stellar mass is a factor of 2-3 lower than observed; (2) the models do not reproduce the number of H$_2$-rich ($M_{\rm H2} > 3\times 10^{10}\,\rm{M}_\odot$) galaxies observed by ASPECS; (3) the H$_2$ cosmic density evolution predicted by IllustrisTNG (the SC SAM) is in tension (only just agrees) with the observed cosmic density, even after accounting for the ASPECS selection function and field-to-field variance effects. The tension between models and observations at $z>1$ can be alleviated by adopting a CO-to-H$_2$ conversion factor in the range $α_{\rm CO} = 2.0 - 0.8\,\rm{M}_\odot/(\rm{K}\,\rm{km/s}\,\rm{pc}^{2})$. Additional work on constraining the CO-to-H$_2$ conversion factor and CO excitation conditions of galaxies through observations and theory will be necessary to more robustly test the success of galaxy formation models.

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arXiv2019

Evaporating the Milky Way halo and its satellites with inelastic self-interacting dark matter

Self-interacting dark matter provides a promising alternative for the cold dark matter paradigm to solve potential small-scale galaxy formation problems. Nearly all self-interacting dark matter simulations so far have considered only elastic collisions. Here we present simulations of a galactic halo within a generic inelastic model using a novel numerical implementation in the Arepo code to study arbitrary multi-state inelastic dark matter scenarios. For this model we find that inelastic self-interactions can: (i) create larger subhalo density cores compared to elastic models for the same cross section normalisation; (ii) lower the abundance of satellites without the need for a power spectrum cutoff; (iii) reduce the total halo mass by about 10%; (iv) inject the energy equivalent of O(100) million Type II supernovae in galactic haloes through level de-excitation; (v) avoid the gravothermal catastrophe due to removal of particles from halo centers. We conclude that a ~5 times larger elastic cross section is required to achieve the same central density reduction as the inelastic model. This implies that well-established constraints on self-interacting cross sections have to be revised if inelastic collisions are the dominant mode. In this case significantly smaller cross sections can achieve the same core density reduction thereby increasing the parameter space of allowed models considerably.

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arXiv2019

The star-formation activity of IllustrisTNG galaxies: main sequence, UVJ diagram, quenched fractions, and systematics

We select galaxies from the IllustrisTNG hydrodynamical simulations ($M_*>10^9~\rm M_\odot$ at $0\le z\le2$) and characterize the shapes and evolutions of their UVJ and star-formation rate -- stellar mass (SFR-$M_*$) diagrams. We quantify the systematic uncertainties related to different criteria to classify star-forming vs. quiescent galaxies, different SFR estimates, and by accounting for the star formation measured within different physical apertures. The TNG model returns the observed features of the UVJ diagram at $z\leq2$, with a clear separation between two classes of galaxies. It also returns a tight star-forming main sequence (MS) for $M_*<10^{10.5}\,\rm M_\odot$ with a $\sim0.3$ dex scatter at $z\sim0$ in our fiducial choices. If a UVJ-based cut is adopted, the TNG MS exhibits a downwardly bending at stellar masses of about $10^{10.5-10.7}~\rm M_\odot$. Moreover, the model predicts that $\sim80\,(50)$ per cent of $10^{10.5-11}~\rm M_\odot$ galaxies at $z=0~(z=2)$ are quiescent and the numbers of quenched galaxies at intermediate redshifts and high masses are in better agreement with observational estimates than previous models. However, shorter SFR-averaging timescales imply higher normalizations and scatter of the MS, while smaller apertures lead to underestimating the galaxy SFRs: overall we estimate the inspected systematic uncertainties to sum up to about $0.2-0.3$ dex in the locus of the MS and to about 15 percentage points in the quenched fractions. While TNG color distributions are clearly bimodal, this is not the case for the SFR logarithmic distributions in bins of stellar mass (SFR$\geq 10^{-3}~\rm M_\odot$yr$^{-1}$). Finally, the slope and $z=0$ normalization of the TNG MS are consistent with observational findings; however, the locus of the TNG MS remains lower by about $0.2-0.5$ dex at $0.75\le z<2$ than the available observational estimates taken at face value.

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arXiv2019

Subhalo Demographics in the Illustris Simulation: Effects of Baryons and Halo-to-Halo Variation

We study the abundance of subhaloes in the hydrodynamical cosmological simulation Illustris, which includes both baryons and dark matter in a $Λ$CDM volume 106.5 Mpc a side. We compare Illustris to its dark matter-only (DMO) analogue, Illustris-Dark, and quantify the effects of baryonic processes on the demographics of subhaloes in the host mass range $10^{11}$ to $3 \times 10^{14} \msun$. We focus on both the evolved ($z=0$) subhalo cumulative mass functions (SHMF) and the statistics of subhaloes ever accreted, i.e. infall subhalo mass function. We quantify the variance in subhalo abundance at fixed host mass and investigate the physical reasons responsible for such scatter. We find that in Illustris, baryonic physics impacts both the infall and $z=0$ subhalo abundance by tilting the DMO function and suppressing the abundance of low-mass subhaloes. The breaking of self-similarity in the subhalo abundance at $z=0$ is enhanced by the inclusion of baryonic physics. The non-monotonic alteration of the evolved subhalo abundances can be explained by the modification of the concentration--mass relation of Illustris hosts compared to Illustris-Dark.Interestingly, the baryonic implementation in Illustris does not lead to an increase in the halo-to-halo variation compared to Illustris-Dark. In both cases, the normalized intrinsic scatter today is larger for Milky Way-like haloes than for cluster-sized objects. For Milky Way-like haloes, it increases from about eight per cent at infall to about 25 per cent at the current epoch. In both runs, haloes of fixed mass formed later host more subhaloes than early formers.

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arXiv2019

Probing Feedback in Galaxy Formation with Millimeter-wave Observations

Achieving a precise understanding of galaxy formation in a cosmological context is one of the great challenges in theoretical astrophysics, due to the vast range of spatial scales involved in the relevant physical processes. Observations in the millimeter bands, particularly those using the cosmic microwave background (CMB) radiation as a "backlight", provide a unique probe of the thermodynamics of these processes, with the capability to directly measure the density, pressure, and temperature of ionized gas. Moreover, these observations have uniquely high sensitivity into the outskirts of the halos of galaxies and clusters, including systems at high redshift. In the next decade, the combination of large spectroscopic and photometric optical galaxy surveys and wide-field, low-noise CMB surveys will transform our understanding of galaxy formation via these probes.

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arXiv2019

AREPO-RT: Radiation hydrodynamics on a moving mesh

We introduce AREPO-RT, a novel radiation hydrodynamic (RHD) solver for the unstructured moving-mesh code AREPO. Our method solves the moment-based radiative transfer equations using the M1 closure relation. We achieve second order convergence by using a slope limited linear spatial extrapolation and a first order time prediction step to obtain the values of the primitive variables on both sides of the cell interface. A Harten-Lax-Van Leer flux function, suitably modified for moving meshes, is then used to solve the Riemann problem at the interface. The implementation is fully conservative and compatible with the individual timestepping scheme of AREPO. It incorporates atomic Hydrogen (H) and Helium (He) thermochemistry, which is used to couple the ultra-violet (UV) radiation field to the gas. Additionally, infrared radiation is coupled to the gas under the assumption of local thermodynamic equilibrium between the gas and the dust. We successfully apply our code to a large number of test problems, including applications such as the expansion of ${\rm H_{II}}$ regions, radiation pressure driven outflows and the levitation of optically thick layer of gas by trapped IR radiation. The new implementation is suitable for studying various important astrophysical phenomena, such as the effect of radiative feedback in driving galactic scale outflows, radiation driven dusty winds in high redshift quasars, or simulating the reionisation history of the Universe in a self consistent manner.

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arXiv2019

Towards an improved model of self-interacting dark matter haloes

In this work, we discuss the relation between the strength of the self-interaction of dark matter particles and the predicted properties of the inner density distributions of dark matter haloes. We present the results of $N$-body simulations for 28 haloes performed with the same initial conditions for cold dark matter and for self-interacting dark matter, for a range of cross-sections. We provide a simple phenomenological description of these results and compare with the semi-analytical model typically used in the literature. Using these results, we then predict how the inner dark matter surface density and core radius should depend on the self-interaction cross-section for observed haloes.

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arXiv2019

Sloshing of Galaxy Cluster Core Plasma in the Presence of Self-Interacting Dark Matter

The "sloshing" of the cold gas in the cores of relaxed clusters of galaxies is a widespread phenomenon, evidenced by the presence of spiral-shaped "cold fronts" in X-ray observations of these systems. In simulations, these flows of cold gas readily form by interactions of the cluster core with small subclusters, due to a separation of the cold gas from the dark matter (DM), due to their markedly different collisionalities. In this work, we use numerical simulations to investigate the effects of increasing the DM collisionality on sloshing cold fronts in a cool-core cluster. For clusters in isolation, the formation of a flat DM core via self-interactions results in modest adiabatic expansion and cooling of the core gas. In merger simulations, cold fronts form in the same manner as in previous simulations, but the flattened potential in the core region enables the gas to expand to larger radii in the initial stages. Upon infall, the subcluster's DM mass decreases via collisions, reducing its influence on the core. Thus, the sloshing gas moves slower, inhibiting the growth of fluid instabilities relative to simulations where the DM cross section is zero. This also inhibits turbulent mixing and the increase in entropy that would otherwise result. For values of the cross section $σ/m > 1$, subclusters do not survive as self-gravitating structures for more than two core passages. Additionally, separations between the peaks in the X-ray emissivity and thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect signals during sloshing may place constraints on DM self-interactions.

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arXiv2019

The interplay of Self-Interacting Dark Matter and baryons in shaping the halo evolution

We use high-resolution hydrodynamical simulation to test the difference of halo properties in cold dark matter (CDM) and a self-interacting dark matter (SIDM) scenario with a constant cross-section of $σ^\text{T}/m_χ=1\;\text{cm}^{2}\text{g}^{-1}$. We find that the interplay between dark matter self-interaction and baryonic physics induces a complex evolution of the halo properties, which depends on the halo mass and morphological type, as well as on the halo mass accretion history. While high mass haloes, selected as analogues of early-type galaxies, show cored profiles in the SIDM run, systems of intermediate mass and with a significant disk component can develop a profile that is similar or cuspier than in CDM. The final properties of SIDM haloes - measured at z=0.2 - correlate with the halo concentration and formation time, suggesting that the differences between different systems are due to the fact that we are observing the impact self-interaction. We also search for signatures of self-interacting dark matter in the lensing signal of the main haloes and hints of potential differences in the distribution of Einstein radii, which suggests that future wide-field survey might be able to distinguish between CDM and SIDM models on this basis. Finally, we find that the subhalo abundances are not altered in the adopted SIDM model with respect to CDM.

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arXiv2019

The fraction of dark matter within galaxies from the IllustrisTNG simulations

We use the IllustrisTNG (TNG) cosmological simulations to provide theoretical expectations for the dark matter mass fractions (DMFs) and circular velocity profiles of galaxies. TNG predicts flat circular velocity curves for $z = 0$ Milky Way (MW)-like galaxies beyond a few kpc from the galaxy centre, in better agreement with observational constraints than its predecessor, Illustris. TNG also predicts an enhancement of the dark matter mass within the 3D stellar half-mass radius ($r_\mathrm{half}$; $M_\mathrm{200c} = 10^{10}-10^{13}\mathrm{M}_{\odot}$, $z \le2$) compared to its dark matter only and Illustris counterparts. This enhancement leads TNG present-day galaxies to be dominated by dark matter within their inner regions, with $f_\mathrm{DM}(<r_\mathrm{half})\gtrsim0.5$ at all masses and with a minimum for MW-mass galaxies. The 1$σ$ scatter is $\lesssim$ 10~per~cent at all apertures, which is smaller than that inferred by some observational datasets, e.g. 40 per cent from the SLUGGS survey. TNG agrees with the majority of the observationally inferred values for elliptical galaxies once a consistent IMF is adopted (Chabrier) and the DMFs are measured within the same apertures. The DMFs measured within $r_\mathrm{half}$ increase towards lower redshifts: this evolution is dominated by the increase in galaxy size with time. At $z\sim2$, the DMF in disc-like TNG galaxies decreases with increasing galaxy mass, with $f_\mathrm{DM}(<r_\mathrm{half}) \sim 0.10-0.65$ for $10^{10} \lesssim M_{\rm stars}/\mathrm{M}_{\odot} \lesssim 10^{12}$, and are two times higher than if TNG galaxies resided in Navarro-Frenk-White dark matter haloes unaffected by baryonic physics. It remains to be properly assessed whether recent observational estimates of the DMFs at $z\sim2$ rule out the contraction of the dark matter haloes predicted by the TNG model.

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arXiv2019

ETHOS -- an effective theory of structure formation: predictions for the high-redshift Universe -- abundance of galaxies and reionization

We contrast predictions for the high-redshift galaxy population and reionization history between cold dark matter (CDM) and an alternative self-interacting dark matter model based on the recently developed ETHOS framework that alleviates the small-scale CDM challenges within the Local Group. We perform the highest resolution hydrodynamical cosmological simulations (a 36~Mpc$^3$ volume with gas cell mass of $\sim10^5\mathrm{M}_{\odot}$ and minimum gas softening of $\sim180$~pc) within ETHOS to date -- plus a CDM counterpart -- to quantify the abundance of galaxies at high redshift and their impact on reionization. We find that ETHOS predicts galaxies with higher ultraviolet (UV) luminosities than their CDM counterparts and a faster build-up of the faint end of the UV luminosity function. These effects, however, make the optical depth to reionization less sensitive to the power spectrum cut-off: the ETHOS model differs from the CDM $τ$ value by only 10 per cent and is consistent with Planck limits if the effective escape fraction of UV photons is 0.1-0.5. We conclude that current observations of high-redshift luminosity functions cannot differentiate between ETHOS and CDM models, but deep JWST surveys of strongly-lensed, inherently faint galaxies have the potential to test non-CDM models that offer attractive solutions to CDM's Local Group problems.

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arXiv2019

Linking galaxy structural properties and star formation activity to black hole activity with IllustrisTNG

We study the connection between active galactic nuclei (AGN) and their host galaxies through cosmic time in the large-scale cosmological IllustrisTNG simulations. We first compare BH properties, i.e. the hard X-ray BH luminosity function, AGN galaxy occupation fraction, and distribution of Eddington ratios, to available observational constraints. The simulations produce a population of BHs in good agreement with observations, but we note an excess of faint AGN in hard X-ray (L_x ~ 10^{43-44} erg/s), and a lower number of bright AGN (L_x>10^{44} erg/s), a conclusion that varies quantitatively but not qualitatively with BH luminosity estimation method. The lower Eddington ratios of the 10^{9} Msun BHs compared to observations suggest that AGN feedback may be too efficient in this regime. We study galaxy star formation activity and structural properties, and design sample-dependent criteria to identify different galaxy types (star-forming/quiescent, extended/compact) that we apply both to the simulations and observations from the candels fields. We analyze how the simulated and observed galaxies populate the specific star formation rate - stellar mass surface density diagram. A large fraction of the z=0 M_{star}>10^{11} Msun quiescent galaxies first experienced a compaction phase (i.e. reduction of galaxy size) while still forming stars, and then a quenching event. We measure the dependence of AGN fraction on galaxies' locations in this diagram. After correcting the simulations with a redshift and AGN luminosity-dependent model for AGN obscuration, we find good qualitative and quantitative agreement with observations. The AGN fraction is the highest among compact star-forming galaxies (16-20% at z~1.5-2), and the lowest among compact quiescent galaxies (6-10% at z~1.5-2).

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arXiv2019

The optical morphologies of galaxies in the IllustrisTNG simulation: a comparison to Pan-STARRS observations

We have generated synthetic images of $\sim$27,000 galaxies from the IllustrisTNG and the original Illustris hydrodynamic cosmological simulations, designed to match Pan-STARRS observations of $\log_{10}(M_{\ast}/{\rm M}_{\odot}) \approx 9.8$-$11.3$ galaxies at $z \approx 0.05$. Most of our synthetic images were created with the SKIRT radiative transfer code, including the effects of dust attenuation and scattering, and performing the radiative transfer directly on the Voronoi mesh used by the simulations themselves. We have analysed both our synthetic and real Pan-STARRS images with the newly developed $\tt{statmorph}$ code, which calculates non-parametric morphological diagnostics -- including the Gini-$M_{20}$ and concentration-asymmetry-smoothness (CAS) statistics -- and performs two-dimensional Sérsic fits. Overall, we find that the optical morphologies of IllustrisTNG galaxies are in good agreement with observations, and represent a substantial improvement compared to the original Illustris simulation. In particular, the locus of the Gini-$M_{20}$ diagram is consistent with that inferred from observations, while the median trends with stellar mass of all the morphological, size and shape parameters considered in this work lie within the $\sim$1$σ$ scatter of the observational trends. However, the IllustrisTNG model has some difficulty with more stringent tests, such as producing a strong morphology-colour relation. This results in a somewhat higher fraction of red discs and blue spheroids compared to observations. Similarly, the morphology-size relation is problematic: while observations show that discs tend to be larger than spheroids at a fixed stellar mass, such a trend is not present in IllustrisTNG.

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arXiv2018

A Quantification of the Butterfly Effect in Cosmological Simulations and Implications for Galaxy Scaling Relations

We study the chaotic-like behavior of cosmological simulations by quantifying how minute perturbations grow over time and manifest as macroscopic differences in galaxy properties. When we run pairs of 'shadow' simulations that are identical except for random minute initial displacements to particle positions (e.g. of order 1e-7pc), the results diverge from each other at the individual galaxy level (while the statistical properties of the ensemble of galaxies are unchanged). After cosmological times, the global properties of pairs of 'shadow' galaxies that are matched between the simulations differ from each other generally at a level of ~2-25%, depending on the considered physical quantity. We perform these experiments using cosmological volumes of (25-50Mpc/h)^3 evolved either purely with dark matter, or with baryons and star-formation but no feedback, or using the full feedback model of the IllustrisTNG project. The runs cover four resolution levels spanning a factor of 512 in mass. We find that without feedback the differences between shadow galaxies generally become smaller as the resolution increases, but with the IllustrisTNG model the results are mostly converging towards a 'floor'. This hints at the role of feedback in setting the chaotic properties of galaxy formation. Importantly, we compare the macroscopic differences between shadow galaxies to the overall scatter in various galaxy scaling relations, and conclude that for the star formation-mass and the Tully-Fisher relations the butterfly effect in our simulations contributes significantly to the overall scatter. We find that our results are robust to whether random numbers are used in the sub-grid models or not. We discuss the implications for galaxy formation theory in general and for cosmological simulations in particular.

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