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Mark Vogelsberger

Publications and source records attributed to Mark Vogelsberger.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

The Cosmic Rush Hour: Rapid Formation of Bright, Massive, Disky, Star-Forming Galaxies as Signatures of Early-Universe Physics

Early JWST observations have revealed a high-redshift universe more vibrant than predicted by canonical galaxy-formation models within $Λ$CDM, showing an excess of ultraviolet(UV)-bright, massive, and morphologically mature galaxies. Departures from $Λ$CDM prior to recombination can imprint signatures on non-linear structure formation at high redshift. In this paper, we investigate one such scenario - Early Dark Energy, originally proposed to resolve the Hubble tension - and its implications for these high-redshift challenges. We present the first large-scale cosmological hydrodynamic simulations of these models. Modifications to the pre-recombination expansion history accelerate early structure formation and produce UV luminosity and stellar mass functions in excellent agreement with JWST measurements, requiring essentially no additional calibrations. Predictions converge to $Λ$CDM at lower redshifts ($z \lesssim 3$), thereby preserving all successes of $Λ$CDM. This model also accelerates the emergence of stellar and gaseous disks, increasing their number densities by $\sim 0.5$ dex at $z\simeq 6$-7, primarily due to the higher abundance of massive galaxies. Taken together, these results demonstrate how early-universe physics can simultaneously reconcile multiple high-redshift challenges and the Hubble tension while retaining the core achievements of $Λ$CDM. This opens a pathway to constraining a broad class of beyond-$Λ$CDM models with forthcoming observations.

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Formation of the Little Red Dots from the Core-collapse of Self-interacting Dark Matter Halos

We present a statistical study of black hole (BH) formation and growth seeded by gravothermal core collapse of self-interacting dark matter (SIDM) halos at high redshift, using a cosmological semi-analytical framework based on Monte Carlo merger trees. We demonstrate that gravothermal collapse naturally leads to BH formation in high-concentration halos at a characteristic mass scale set by the SIDM cross section, and occurs predominantly in the early Universe. This mechanism is particularly promising for explaining the abundance of the little red dots (LRDs) -- a population of early, apparently galaxy-less active galactic nuclei hosting supermassive BHs. By incorporating this seeding process with simple models of BH growth and assuming a 100% duty cycle, we reproduce the observed LRD mass function for velocity-dependent cross sections of $σ_{0m} \sim 30\,\mathrm{cm}^2\,\mathrm{g}^{-1}$ and $ω\sim 80\,\mathrm{km}\,\mathrm{s}^{-1}$, which are consistent with independent constraints from local galaxies. While higher values of $σ_{0m}$ (or $ω$) would overpredict the low-mass (or high-mass) end of the BH mass function, such deviations could be reconciled by invoking a reduced duty cycle or lower Eddington ratio. Our results suggest that the demographics of high-redshift BHs can serve as a novel and complementary probe of SIDM physics.

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Metallicity Gradients in Modern Cosmological Simulations I: Tension Between Smooth Stellar Feedback Models and Observations

The metallicity of galaxies, and its variation with galactocentric radius, provides key insights into the formation histories of galaxies and the physical processes driving their evolution. In this work, we analyze the radial metallicity gradients of star forming galaxies in the EAGLE, Illustris, IllustrisTNG, and SIMBA cosmological simulations across a broad mass ($10^{8.0}M_\odot\leq M_\star \lesssim10^{12.0}M_\odot$) and redshift ($0\leq z\leq8$) range. We find that all simulations predict strong negative (i.e., radially decreasing) metallicity gradients at early cosmic times, likely due to their similar treatments of relatively smooth stellar feedback not providing sufficient mixing to quickly flatten gradients. The strongest redshift evolution occurs in galaxies with stellar masses of $10^{10.0}-10^{11.0}M_\odot$, while galaxies with stellar masses $< 10^{10}M_\odot$ and $>10^{11}M_\odot$ exhibit weaker redshift evolution. Our results of negative gradients at high-redshift contrast with the many positive and flat gradients in the $1 6$, the negative gradients observed with JWST and ALMA are flatter than those in simulations, albeit with closer agreement than at lower redshift. Overall, we suggest that these smooth stellar feedback galaxy simulations may not sufficiently mix their metal content radially, and that either stronger stellar feedback or additional subgrid turbulent metal diffusion models may be required to better reproduce observed metallicity gradients.

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The THESAN project: environmental drivers of Local Group reionization

The timing of cosmic reionization across Local Group (LG) analogues provides insights into their early histories and surrounding large-scale structure. Using the radiation-hydrodynamic simulation THESAN-1 and its dark matter-only counterpart THESAN-DARK-1, we track the reionization histories of all haloes, including 224 LG analogues within the proximity of any of the 20 Virgo-like clusters with halo masses above 10^14 Msun at z=0 and their environments. The statistically controlled samples quantify how the reionization redshift (z_reion) correlates with halo mass, local overdensity, and present-day pair properties. Even at fixed mass, haloes in denser regions ionize earlier, and increasing the overdensity smoothing scale systematically suppresses small-scale structure, including local variations and environmental gradients in z_reion. Virgo-like clusters accelerate reionization in their surroundings out to ~5-10 cMpc, beyond which local overdensity again becomes the dominant factor. Within LG pairs, reionization timing offsets reach up to ~150 Myr and correlate with present-day halo separation, reflecting sensitivity to large-scale structure rather than mass ratio in driving asynchronous reionization. The results support an extreme inside-out picture where clustered sources rapidly ionize their immediate neighborhoods, while lower-density regions self-ionize later and voids wait for external homogenization. These links between environment and reionization timing explain the influence of protoclusters and help interpret fossil records in LG dwarfs around the Milky Way. For Milky Way analogues, we find a reionization redshift as early (late) as z_reion = 12.7^{+2.0}_{-1.7} (8.88^{+0.66}_{-0.70}) when considered on 125 ckpc (500 ckpc) scales, with LG analogues following an inside-out reionization picture.

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The life cycle of giant molecular clouds in simulated Milky Way-mass galaxies

In this work, we trace the complete life cycle of individual GMCs in high-resolution Milky Way-mass galaxy simulations to determine how different stellar feedback mechanisms and galactic-scale processes govern cloud lifetimes, mass evolution, and local star formation efficiency (SFE). We identify GMCs in simulated galaxies and track their evolution using cloud evolution trees. Via cloud evolution trees, we quantify the lifetimes and SFE of GMCs. We further apply our diagnostics on a suite of simulations with varying star formation and stellar feedback subgrid models and explore their impact together with galactic environments to the GMC life cycles. Our analysis reveals that GMCs undergo dynamic evolution, characterized by continuous gas accretion, gravitational collapse, and star formation, followed by disruption due to stellar feedback. The accretion process sustains the gas content throughout most of the GMC life cycles, resulting in a positive correlation between GMC lifetimes and their maximum masses. The GMC lifetimes range from a few to several tens of Myr, with two distinct dynamical modes: (1) GMCs near the galactic center experience strong tidal disturbances, prolonging their lifetimes when they remain marginally unbound; (2) those in the outer regions are less affected by tides, remain gravitationally bound, and evolve more rapidly. In all model variations, we observe that GMC-scale SFE correlates with the baryonic surface density of GMCs, consistent with previous studies of isolated GMCs. Additionally, we emphasize the critical role of galactic shear in regulating GMC-scale star formation and refine the correlation between local SFE and surface density by including its effects. These findings demonstrate how stellar feedback and galactic-scale dynamics jointly shape GMC-scale star formation in realistic galactic environments.

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The effects of projection on measuring the splashback feature

The splashback radius $R_{\rm sp}$ is a boundary of a halo that separates infalling and accreted matter. This results in a steep drop in the density profile at $R_{\rm st}$, which is a commonly adopted proxy for $R_{\rm sp}$. Observationally, $R_{\rm st}$ can be measured through fitting the projected galaxy number density profile of the halo, but there has been some discrepancy between the observed and expected $R_{\rm st}$. Therefore, we investigate whether the projection of the density profile onto the plane of the sky could lead to any systematic bias in determining $R_{\rm st}$, by studying the true 3-dimensional and projected halo density profiles from the IllustrisTNG simulation. We investigate a range of projection lengths, and find that $R^p_{\rm st}$ obtained from projected profiles is close to the true $R^*_{\rm st}$, but has a slight decreasing trend with increasing projection length. We also quantify the prominence of the splashback feature and find how the feature shape changes with projection length.

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Supersonic Turbulence in Primordial Halos: A Comparison With and Without The Stream Velocity

Turbulence plays a critical role in regulating star formation in molecular clouds and is also observed in simulations of primordial halos that host Population III (Pop III) stars. The relative velocity between baryons and dark matter at the time of recombination is thought to be a source of turbulence in the early universe. In this paper, we study how this stream velocity affects the turbulence inside primordial halos using high-resolution cosmological simulations across the redshift range of $z = 30$ to $z = 20$. We find that at a fixed redshift, the stream velocity enhances turbulence in low-mass halos ($M \lesssim 10^6 \ \mathrm{M_\odot}$) and suppresses it for high-mass halos ($M \gtrsim 10^6 \ \mathrm{M_\odot}$). The enhancement in low-mass halos likely arises from residual kinetic energy introduced by the stream velocity, while the suppression in high-mass halos likely arises from a reduction in inflowing accretion-driven turbulence. This mass-dependent modulation of turbulence suggests that the initial conditions inside primordial halos are altered in the presence of the stream velocity, potentially influencing their fragmentation and the resulting star formation.

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The THESAN-ZOOM project: Long-term imprints of external reionization on galaxy evolution

We investigate the impact of ionizing external ultraviolet (UV) radiation on low-mass haloes ($M_{h}<10^{10}M_\odot$) at high redshift using $1140M_\odot$ baryonic resolution zoom-in simulations of seven regions from the THESAN-ZOOM project. We compare three simulation sets that differ in the treatment of external UV radiation: one employing a uniform UV background initiated at z=10.6 in addition to radiation transport for local sources, another with the same background starting at z=5.5, and the default configuration in which the large-scale radiation field from the parent THESAN-1 simulation box acts as a boundary condition. The multi-phase interstellar medium (ISM) model, combined with its high mass resolution, allows us to resolve all star-forming haloes and capture the back-reaction of ionizing radiation on galaxy properties during the epoch of reionization. When present, external UV radiation efficiently unbinds gas in haloes with masses below $10^9M_\odot$ and suppresses subsequent star formation. As a result, in simulations with early reionization, minihaloes fail to form stars from pristine gas, leading to reduced metal enrichment of gas later accreted by more massive haloes. Consequently, haloes with masses below $10^{10}M_\odot$ at all simulated epochs (z>3) exhibit lower metallicities and altered metallicity distributions. The more accurate and realistic shielding from external UV radiation, achieved through self-consistent radiative transfer, permits the existence of a cold but low-density gas phase down to z=3. These findings highlight the importance of capturing a patchy reionization history in high-resolution simulations targeting high-redshift galaxy formation. We conclude that at minimum, a semi-numerical model that incorporates spatially inhomogeneous reionization and a non-uniform metallicity floor is necessary to accurately emulate metal enrichment in minihaloes.

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Signatures of BH seeding on the $\mathrm{M_{\displaystyle \bullet}}-σ$ relation: Predictions from the BRAHMA simulations

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) has identified a large population of supermassive ($10^6$-$10^8~\mathrm{M}_\odot$) black holes (BHs) in the early universe ($z \sim 4$-$7$). Current measurements suggest that many of these BHs exhibit higher BH-to-stellar mass ratios than local populations, opening a new window into the earliest stages of BH-galaxy coevolution and offering the potential to place tight constraints on BH seeding and growth in the early universe. In this work, we use the BRAHMA simulations to investigate the impact of BH seeding on the $\mathrm{M_{\bullet}}-σ$ relation. These simulations adopt heavy $\sim10^5~\mathrm{M}_{\odot}$ seeds and systematically varied BH seeding models, resulting in distinct predictions for seed abundances. We find that different seed models lead to different normalizations of the $\mathrm{M_{\bullet}}-σ$ relation at higher redshifts ($z > 2$) across all $σ$, and at low redshift for systems with low $σ$ ($50~\mathrm{km\ s^{-1}} \lesssim σ\lesssim 80~\mathrm{km\ s^{-1}}$). The most lenient seed model also shows negligible evolution in the $\mathrm{M_{\bullet}}-σ$ relation across redshift, while more restrictive models have substantially lower normalization on the $\mathrm{M_{\bullet}}-σ$ relation for high $σ$ ($\sim 100~\mathrm{km\ s^{-1}}$) at high redshifts, and evolve upward toward the local relation. We demonstrate that the $\mathrm{M_{\bullet}}-σ$ evolution is a direct consequence of merger-dominated BH growth in low mass galaxies ($\lesssim 10^9~M_{\odot}$) and accretion dominated BH growth in high mass ($\gtrsim10^9~M_{\odot}$) galaxies. Furthermore, the scatter in the $\mathrm{M_{\bullet}}-σ$ relation is larger for the more restrictive models due to the inability of many BHs to grow significantly beyond their seed mass.

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The THESAN-ZOOM project: Population III star formation continues until the end of reionization

Population III (Pop III) stars are the first stars in the Universe, forming from pristine, metal-free gas and marking the end of the cosmic dark ages. Their formation rate is expected to sharply decline after redshift $z \approx 15$ due to metal enrichment from previous generations of stars. In this paper, we analyze 14 zoom-in simulations from the THESAN-ZOOM project, which evolves different haloes from the THESAN-1 cosmological box down to redshift $z=3$. The high mass resolution of up to $142 M_\odot$ per cell in the gas phase combined with a multiphase model of the interstellar medium (ISM), radiative transfer including Lyman-Werner radiation, dust physics, and a non-equilibrium chemistry network that tracks molecular hydrogen, allows for a realistic but still approximate description of Pop III star formation in pristine gas. Our results show that Pop III stars continue to form in low-mass haloes ranging from $10^6 M_\odot$ to $10^9 M_\odot$ until the end of reionization at around $z=5$. At this stage, photoevaporation suppresses further star formation in these minihaloes, which subsequently merge into larger central haloes. Hence, the remnants of Pop III stars primarily reside in the satellite galaxies of larger haloes at lower redshifts. While direct detection of Pop III stars remains elusive, these results hint that lingering primordial star formation could leave observable imprints or indirectly affect the properties of high-redshift galaxies. Explicit Pop III feedback and specialized initial mass function modelling within the THESAN-ZOOM framework would further help interpreting emerging constraints from the James Webb Space Telescope.

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Diverse dark matter haloes in Two-field Fuzzy Dark Matter

Fuzzy dark matter (FDM) is a compelling candidate for dark matter, offering a natural explanation for the structure of diffuse low-mass haloes. However, the canonical FDM model with a mass of $10^{-22}~{\rm eV}$ encounters challenges in reproducing the observed diversity of dwarf galaxies, except for possibly scenarios where strong galactic feedback is invoked. The introduction of multiple-field FDM can provide a potential resolution to this diversity issue. The theoretical plausibility of this dark matter model is also enhanced by the fact that multiple axion species with logarithmically-distributed mass spectrum exist as a generic prediction of string theory. In this paper, we consider the axiverse hypothesis and investigate non-linear structure formation in the two-field fuzzy dark matter (2FDM) model. Our cosmological simulation with an unprecedented resolution and self-consistent initial conditions reveals the diverse structures of dark matter haloes in the 2FDM model for the first time. Depending on the formation time and local tidal activities, late-time haloes can host solitons of nested cores or solitons of one dominant species.

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Introducing the AIDA-TNG project: galaxy formation in alternative dark matter models

We introduce the AIDA-TNG project, a suite of cosmological magnetohydrodynamic simulations that simultaneously model galaxy formation and different variations of the underlying dark matter model. We consider the standard cold dark matter model and five variations, including three warm dark matter scenarios and two self-interacting models with constant or velocity-dependent cross-section. In each model, we simulate two cosmological boxes of 51.7 and 110.7 Mpc on a side, with the same initial conditions as TNG50 and TNG100, and combine the variations in the physics of dark matter with the fiducial IllustrisTNG galaxy formation model. The AIDA-TNG runs are thus ideal for studying the simultaneous effect of baryons and alternative dark matter models on observable properties of galaxies and large-scale structures. We resolve haloes in the range between $10^{8}$ and $4\times10^{14}\,$M$_{\odot}$ and scales down to the nominal resolution of 570 pc in the highest resolution runs. This work presents the first results on statistical quantities such as the halo mass function and the matter power spectrum; we quantify the modification in the number of haloes and the power on scales smaller than 1 Mpc, due to the combination of baryonic and dark matter physics. Despite being calibrated on cold dark matter, we find that the TNG galaxy formation model can produce a realistic galaxy population in all scenarios. The stellar and gas mass fraction, stellar mass function, black hole mass as a function of stellar mass and star formation rate density are very similar in all dark matter models, with some deviations only in the most extreme warm dark matter model. Finally, we also quantify changes in halo structure due to warm and self-interacting dark matter, which appear in the density profiles, concentration-mass relation and galaxy sizes.

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Dynamics of low-mass black hole seeds in the BRAHMA simulations using subgrid-dynamical friction: Impact on merger-driven black hole growth in the high redshift Universe

We analyze the dynamics of low-mass black hole (BH) seeds in the high-redshift ($z\gtrsim5$) Universe using a suite of $[4.5~\mathrm{Mpc}]^3$ and $[9~\mathrm{Mpc}]^3$ BRAHMA cosmological hydrodynamic simulations. The simulations form seeds with mass $M_{\mathrm{seed}}=2.2\times10^3~M_{\odot}$ in halos that exceed critical thresholds of dense & metal-poor gas mass ($5-150~M_{\mathrm{seed}}$) and the halo mass ($1000-10000~M_{\mathrm{seed}}$). While the initial BRAHMA boxes pinned the BHs to the halo centers, here we implement a sub-grid dynamical friction (DF) model. We also compare simulations where the BH is allowed to wander without the added DF. We investigate the spatial and velocity offsets of BHs in their host subhalos, as well as BH merger rates. We find that subgrid DF is crucial to ensure that a significant fraction of BHs effectively sink to halo centers by $z\sim5$, thereby enabling them to get gravitationally bound and merge with other BHs at separations close to the spatial resolution ($\sim0.2-0.4~\rm kpc$) of the simulation. For the BHs that merge, the associated merger time scales lag between $\sim100-1000~\mathrm{Myr}$ after their host halos merge. Compared to predictions using BH repositioning, the overall $z\gtrsim5$ BH merger rates under subgrid DF decrease by a factor of $\sim4-10$. Under subgrid DF, the different seed models predict merger rates between $\sim100-1000$ events per year at $z\gtrsim5$. These mergers dominate early BH growth, assembling BHs up to $\sim10^4-10^5~M_{\odot}$ by $z\sim5$, wherein $\lesssim2~\%$ of their mass is assembled via gas accretion. Our results highlight the promise for constraining seeding mechanisms using gravitational waves from future facilities such as the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna.

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Galaxy populations in protoclusters at cosmic noon

We investigate the physical properties and redshift evolution of simulated galaxies residing in protoclusters at cosmic noon, to understand the influence of the environment on galaxy formation. This work is to build clear expectations for the ongoing ODIN survey, devoted to mapping large-scale structures at z=2.4, 3.1, and 4.5 using Ly$α$-emitting galaxies (LAEs) as tracers. From the IllustrisTNG simulations, we define subregions centered on the most massive clusters ranked by total stellar mass at z=0 and study the properties of galaxies within, including LAEs. To model the LAE population, we take a semi-analytical approach that assigns Ly$α$ luminosity and equivalent width based on the UV luminosities to galaxies in a probabilistic manner. We investigate stellar mass, star formation rate, major mergers, and specific star formation rate of the population of star-forming galaxies and LAEs in the field and protocluster environment and trace their evolution. We find that the overall shape of the UV luminosity function (LF) in simulated protocluster environments is characterized by a shallower faint-end slope and an excess on the bright end, signaling different formation histories for galaxies therein. The difference is milder for the Ly$α$ LF. While protocluster galaxies follow the same SFR-$M_{\odot}$ scaling relation as average field galaxies, a larger fraction appears to have experienced major mergers in the last 200 Myr and as a result shows enhanced star formation at a ~60% level, leading to a flatter distribution in both SFR and $M_{\odot}$ relative to galaxies in the average field. We find that protocluster galaxies, including LAEs, begin to quench much earlier (z~0.8-1.6) than field galaxies (z~0.5-0.9); our result is in agreement with recent observational results and highlights the importance of large-scale environment on the overall formation history of galaxies.

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The THESAN-ZOOM project: Star formation efficiency from giant molecular clouds to galactic scale in high-redshift starbursts

Star formation in galaxies is inherently complex, involving the interplay of physical processes over a hierarchy of spatial scales. In this work, we investigate the connection between global (galaxy-scale) and local (cloud-scale) star formation efficiencies (SFEs) at high redshifts ($z\gtrsim 3$), using the state-of-the-art cosmological zoom-in simulation suite THESAN-ZOOM. We find that the galaxy-scale average SFE, $\langle ε^{\rm gal}_{\rm ff} \rangle$, scales with $M_{\rm halo}^{1/3}\,(1+z)^{1/2} \sim V_{\rm vir}$, consistent with expectations from feedback-regulated models. On cloud scales, we identify giant molecular clouds (GMCs) in a broad sample of high-redshift starbursts spanning a wide range of halo masses and redshifts. Star formation in these systems is predominantly hosted by filamentary GMCs embedded in a dense and highly turbulent interstellar medium (ISM). GMCs exhibit remarkably universal properties, including mass function, size, turbulence, and surface density, regardless of the environment in which they are identified. The global gas depletion time (and the Kennicutt-Schmidt relation) is determined by the GMC mass fraction in the ISM, while the cloud-scale SFE shows little variation. In particular, we find a nearly constant gas surface density of $Σ_{\rm GMC} \approx 70\,{\rm M}_{\odot}\,{\rm pc}^{-2}$ across different host galaxies. Nevertheless, we identify two regimes where phases with high SFE can arise. First, stars may form efficiently in the shock fronts generated by feedback from a preceding starburst. Second, the increasing background dark matter surface density with redshift may contribute to the gravitational potential of clouds at $z \gtrsim 8$ and confine them in high-SFE phases over extended periods.

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The Stellar Initial Mass Function of Early Dark Matter-free Gas Objects

Among the remarkable strides made by JWST is the discovery of the earliest star clusters found to date. These have been proposed as early progenitors of globular clusters, which are known to come from the early stages of star formation in the Universe. This is an exciting development in modern astronomy, as it offers an opportunity to connect theoretical models of globular cluster formation to actual observations of these high-redshift structures. In this work, we aim to develop observational signatures of a star cluster formation route known as supersonically induced gas objects, which are dark matter-less gas clouds in the early Universe proposed as a potential origin of some globular clusters. For the first time, we follow the star formation process of these early Universe objects using high-resolution hydrodynamical simulations, including mechanical feedback. Our results suggest that the first dark matter-less star clusters are top-heavy, meaning that they have a flatter IMF slope compared to very young low-metallicity star clusters in the local Universe, and they also have extremely high stellar mass surface densities compared to their local counterparts.

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Unravelling the role of merger histories in the population of In situ stars: linking IllustrisTNG cosmological simulation to H3 survey

We undertake a comprehensive investigation into the distribution of in~situ stars within Milky Way-like galaxies, leveraging TNG50 simulations and comparing their predictions with data from the H3 survey. Our analysis reveals that 28% of galaxies demonstrate reasonable agreement with H3, while only 12% exhibit excellent alignment in their profiles, regardless of the specific spatial cut employed to define in~situ stars. To uncover the underlying factors contributing to deviations between TNG50 and H3 distributions, we scrutinise correlation coefficients among internal drivers(e.g., virial radius, star formation rate [SFR]) and merger-related parameters (such as the effective mass-ratio, mean distance, average redshift, total number of mergers, average spin-ratio and maximum spin alignment between merging galaxies). Notably, we identify significant correlations between deviations from observational data and key parameters such as the median slope of virial radius, mean SFR values, and the rate of SFR change across different redshift scans. Furthermore, positive correlations emerge between deviations from observational data and parameters related to galaxy mergers. We validate these correlations using the Random Forest Regression method. Our findings underscore the invaluable insights provided by the H3 survey in unravelling the cosmic history of galaxies akin to the Milky Way, thereby advancing our understanding of galactic evolution and shedding light on the formation and evolution of Milky Way-like galaxies in cosmological simulations.

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Novel Polarimetric Analysis of Near Horizon Flaring Episodes in M87* in Millimeter Wavelength

Recent multi-wavelength observations of M87* \citep{2024A&A...692A.140A} revealed a high-energy $γ$-ray flare without a corresponding millimeter counterpart. We present a theoretical polarimetric study to evaluate the presence and nature of a potential millimeter flare in M87*, using a suite of general relativistic magnetohydrodynamical simulations with varying black hole (BH) spins and magnetic field configurations. We find that the emergence of a millimeter flare is strongly influenced by both spin and magnetic structure, with limited sensitivity to the electron distribution (thermal vs. non-thermal). We model the intensity light curve with a damped random walk (DRW) and compare the characteristic timescale ($τ$) with recent SMA observations, finding that the simulated $τ$ exceeds observed values by over an order of magnitude. In a flaring case with BH spin a=+0.5, we identify a distinct millimeter flare followed by an order-of-magnitude flux drop. All Stokes parameters show variability near the flare, including a sign reversal in the electric vector position angle. While most $β_m$ modes remain stable, the $EB$-correlation phase is highly sensitive to both the flare peak and decay. We examine polarimetric signatures in photon sub-rings, focusing on modes ns=0 and ns=1. The ns=0 signal closely matches the full image, while ns=1 reveals distinct behaviors, highlighting the potential of space VLBI to isolate sub-ring features. Finally, we analyze the magnetic and velocity field evolution during the flare, finding that magnetic reconnection weakens during the flux decay, and the clockwise velocity flow transitions into an outflow-dominated regime. These results suggest that transient radio variability near flares encodes key information about black hole spin and magnetic field structure, offering a novel probe into the physics of active galactic nuclei.

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