arXiv subjects

Marko Jusup

Publications and source records attributed to Marko Jusup.

13 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

The untapped power of a general theory of organismal metabolism

What makes living things special is how they manage matter, energy, and entropy. A general theory of organismal metabolism should therefore be quantified in these three currencies while capturing the unique way they flow between individuals and their environments. We argue that such a theory has quietly arrived -- 'Dynamic Energy Budget' (DEB) theory -- which conceptualises organisms as a series of macrochemical reactions that use energy to transform food into structured biomass and bioproducts while producing entropy. We show that such conceptualisation is deeply rooted in thermodynamic principles and that, with the help of a small set of biological assumptions, it underpins the emergence of fundamental ecophysiological phenomena, most notably the three-quarter power scaling of metabolism. Building on the subcellular nature of the theory, we unveil the eco-evolutionary relevance of coarse-graining biomass into qualitatively distinct, stoichiometricially fixed pools with implicitly regulated dynamics based on surface area-volume relations. We also show how generalised enzymes called 'synthesising units' and an information-based state variable called 'maturity' capture transitions between ecological and physiological metabolic interactions, and thereby transitions between unicellular and multicellular metabolic organisation. Formal theoretical frameworks make the constraints imposed by the laws of nature explicit, which in turn leads to better research hypotheses and avoids errors in reasoning. DEB theory uniquely applies thermodynamic formalism to organismal metabolism, linking biological processes across different scales through the transformation of matter and energy, the production of entropy, and the exchange of information. We propose ways in which the theory can inform trans-disciplinary efforts at the frontiers of the life sciences.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2023

Tuna and billfish larval distributions in a warming ocean

Tuna and billfish are charismatic pelagic fishes attracting considerable scientific attention due to their ecophysiological and socioeconomic importance. However, the knowledge of their basin-wide spawning and larval habitats, especially in a warming ocean, is limited. This knowledge gap undermines effective fishery management by introducing recruitment uncertainty, which makes population dynamics unpredictable. We fill the gap with a parsimonious geostatistical species-distribution model trained on the largest available dataset on tuna and billfish larvae in the Pacific Ocean. The model reveals (i) the basin-wide seasonal larval distributions over the reference period 1960-85, (ii) the expected impact of ongoing ocean warming on these distributions, and (iii) the biogeochemical factors, such as pH, phosphate concentration, and sea-surface height, that shape the larval habitat. Our findings make a quantum leap in understanding the ecophysiology of tuna and billfish, providing valuable information for future conservation efforts.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2022

Inferring the ecology of north-Pacific albacore tuna from catch-and-effort data

Catch-and-effort data are among the primary sources of information for assessing the status of terrestrial wildlife and fish. In fishery science, elaborate stock-assessment models are fitted to such data in order to estimate fish-population sizes and guide management decisions. Given the importance of catch-and-effort data, we scoured a comprehensive dataset pertaining to albacore tuna (Thunnus alalunga) in the north Pacific ocean for novel ecological information content about this commercially valuable species. Specifically, we used unsupervised learning based on finite mixture modelling to reveal that the north Pacific albacore-tuna stock can be divided into four pseudo-cohorts ranging in age from approximately 3 to 12 years old. We discovered that smaller size pseudo-cohorts inhabit relatively high -- subtropical to temperate -- latitudes, with hotspots off the coast of Japan. Larger size pseudo-cohorts inhabit lower -- tropical to subtropical -- latitudes, with hotspots in the western and central north Pacific. These results offer evidence that albacore tuna prefer different habitats depending on their size and age, and point to long-term migratory routes for the species that the current tagging technology is unlikely to capture in full. We discuss the implications of the results for data-driven modelling of albacore tuna in the north Pacific, as well as the management of the north Pacific albacore-tuna fishery.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2022

Mechanistic forecasts of species responses to climate change: the promise of biophysical ecology

A challenge in global change biology is to predict how species will respond to future environmental change and to manage these responses. To make such predictions and management actions robust to novel futures, we need to accurately characterize how organisms experience their environments and the biological mechanisms by which they respond. All organisms are thermodynamically connected to their environments through the exchange of heat and water at fine spatial and temporal scales and this exchange can be captured with biophysical models. Although mechanistic models based on biophysical ecology have a long history of development and application, their use in global change biology remains limited despite their enormous promise and increasingly accessible software. We contend that greater understanding and training in the theory and methods of biophysical models is vital to expand their application. Our review shows how biophysical models can be implemented to understand and predict climate change impacts on species' behavior, phenology, survival, distribution, and abundance. We illustrate the types of outputs that can be generated, and the data inputs required for different implementations. Examples range from simple calculations of body temperature to more complex analyses of species' distribution limits based on projected energy and water balances, accounting for behavior and phenology. We outline challenges that currently limit the widespread application of biophysical models. We discuss progress and future developments that could allow these models to be applied to many species across large spatial extents and timeframes. We highlight how biophysical models are uniquely suited to solve global change biology problems that involve predicting and interpreting responses to environmental variability and extremes, multiple or shifting constraints, and novel abiotic or biotic environments.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2021

Social physics

Recent decades have seen a rise in the use of physics methods to study different societal phenomena. This development has been due to physicists venturing outside of their traditional domains of interest, but also due to scientists from other disciplines taking from physics the methods that have proven so successful throughout the 19th and the 20th century. Here we dub this field 'social physics' and pay our respect to intellectual mavericks who nurtured it to maturity. We do so by reviewing the current state of the art. Starting with a set of topics that are at the heart of modern human societies, we review research dedicated to urban development and traffic, the functioning of financial markets, cooperation as the basis for our evolutionary success, the structure of social networks, and the integration of intelligent machines into these networks. We then shift our attention to a set of topics that explore potential threats to society. These include criminal behaviour, large-scale migrations, epidemics, environmental challenges, and climate change. We end the coverage of each topic with promising directions for future research. Based on this, we conclude that the future for social physics is bright. Physicists studying societal phenomena are no longer a curiosity, but rather a force to be reckoned with. Notwithstanding, it remains of the utmost importance that we continue to foster constructive dialogue and mutual respect at the interfaces of different scientific disciplines.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Inferring Network Structures via Signal Lasso

Inferring the connectivity structure of networked systems from data is an extremely important task in many areas of science. Most of real-world networks exhibit sparsely connected topologies, with links between nodes that in some cases may be even associated to a binary state (0 or 1, denoting respectively the absence or the existence of a connection). Such un-weighted topologies are elusive to classical reconstruction methods such as Lasso or Compressed Sensing techniques. We here introduce a novel approach called signal Lasso, where the estimation of the signal parameter is subjected to 0 or 1 values. The theoretical properties and algorithm of proposed method are studied in detail. Applications of the method are illustrated to an evolutionary game and synchronization dynamics in several synthetic and empirical networks, where we show that the novel strategy is reliable and robust, and outperform the classical approaches in terms of accuracy and mean square errors.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Autopoietic influence hierarchies in pancreatic $β$-cells

$β$-cells are biologically essential for humans and other vertebrates. Because their functionality arises from cell-cell interactions, they are also a model system for collective organization among cells. There are currently two contradictory pictures of this organization: the hub-cell idea pointing at leaders who coordinate the others, and the electrophysiological theory describing all cells as equal. We use new data and computational modeling to reconcile these pictures. We find via a network representation of interacting $β$-cells that leaders emerge naturally (confirming the hub-cell idea), yet all cells can take the hub role following a perturbation (in line with electrophysiology). A useful network representation of complex systems is via pairwise cross-correlations between a system's constituents. Recently, attempts have been made at representing pancreatic $β$-cells collectives as networks, giving birth to the concept of hub cells, which contradicts established electrophysiological theory. Here, we reconcile the hub-cell idea with electrophysiology using empirical and computational methods. While the former reveals the functional importance of hubs, the latter show that hubs are an emergent property of communication among identical peers. Thus, individual cells are perfectly capable of playing the hub role, but in line with electrophysiology, they do not have to be genetically predisposed to do so. This points to an ultra-robust architecture of $β$-cell collectives and underpins some of their vital features.

physics.bio-ph↗

arXiv2020

Exit rights open complex pathways to cooperation

We study the evolutionary dynamics of the prisoner's dilemma game in which cooperators and defectors interact with another actor type called exiters. Rather than being exploited by defectors, exiters exit the game in favour of a small payoff. We find that this simple extension of the game allows cooperation to flourish in well-mixed populations when iterations or reputation are added. In networked populations, however, the exit option is less conducive to cooperation. Instead, it enables the coexistence of cooperators, defectors, and exiters through cyclic dominance. Other outcomes are also possible as the exit payoff increases or the network structure changes, including network-wide oscillations in actor abundances that may cause the extinction of exiters and the domination of defectors, although game parameters should favour exiting. The complex dynamics that emerges in the wake of a simple option to exit the game implies that nuances matter even if our analyses are restricted to incentives for rational behaviour.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2020

Flexible imitation suppresses epidemics through better vaccination

The decision of whether or not to vaccinate is a complex one. It involves the contribution both to a social good -- herd immunity -- and to one's own well being. It is informed by social influence, personal experience, education, and mass media. In our work, we investigate a situation in which individuals make their choice based on how social neighbourhood responded to previous epidemics. We do this by proposing a minimalistic model using components from game theory, network theory and the modelling of epidemic spreading, and opinion dynamics. Individuals can use the information about the neighbourhood in two ways -- either they follow the majority or the best-performing neighbour. Furthermore, we let individuals learn which of these two decision-making strategies to follow from their experience. Our results show that the flexibility of individuals to chose how to integrate information from the neighbourhood increases the vaccine uptake and decreases the epidemic severity if the following conditions are fulfilled. First, the initial fraction of individuals who imitate the neighbourhood majority should be limited, and second, the memory of previous outbreaks should be sufficiently long. These results have implications for the acceptance of novel vaccines and raising awareness about vaccination, while also pointing to promising future research directions.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2020

A novel route to cyclic dominance in voluntary social dilemmas

Cooperation is the backbone of modern human societies, making it a priority to understand how successful cooperation-sustaining mechanisms operate. Cyclic dominance, a non-transitive setup comprising at least three strategies wherein the first strategy overrules the second which overrules the third which, in turn, overrules the first strategy, is known to maintain bio-diversity, drive competition between bacterial strains, and preserve cooperation in social dilemmas. Here, we present a novel route to cyclic dominance in voluntary social dilemmas by adding to the traditional mix of cooperators, defectors, and loners, a fourth player type, risk-averse hedgers, who enact tit-for-tat upon paying a hedging cost to avoid being exploited. When this cost is sufficiently small, cooperators, defectors, and hedgers enter a loop of cyclic dominance that preserves cooperation even under the most adverse conditions. In contrast, when the hedging cost is large, hedgers disappear, consequently reverting to the traditional interplay of cooperators, defectors, and loners. In the interim region of hedging costs, complex evolutionary dynamics ensues, prompting transitions between states with two, three, or four competing strategies. Our results thus reveal that voluntary participation is but one pathway to sustained cooperation via cyclic dominance.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2016

Predicting the rise of right-wing populism in response to unbalanced immigration

Among the central tenets of globalization is free migration of labor. Although much has been written about its benefits, little is known about the limitations of globalization, including how immigration affects the anti-globalist sentiment. Analyzing polls data, we find that over the last three years in a group of EU countries affected by the recent migrant crisis, the percentage of right-wing (RW) populist voters in a given country depends on the prevalence of immigrants in this country's population and the total immigration inflow into the entire EU. The latter is likely due to the EU resembling a supranational state, where the lack of inner borders causes that "somebody else's problem" easily turns into "my problem". We further find that the increase in the percentage of RW voters substantially surpasses the immigration inflow, implying that if this process continues, RW populism may democratically prevail and eventually lead to a demise of globalization. We present evidence for tipping points in relation to the rise of RW populism. Finally, we model these empirical findings using a complex network framework wherein the success of globalization largely rests on the balance between immigration and immigrant integration.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2016

How fear of future outcomes affects social dynamics

Mutualistic relationships among the different species are ubiquitous in nature. To prevent mutualism from slipping into antagonism, a host often invokes a "carrot and stick" approach towards symbionts with a stabilizing effect on their symbiosis. In open human societies, a mutualistic relationship arises when a native insider population attracts outsiders with benevolent incentives in hope that the additional labor will improve the standard of all. A lingering question, however, is the extent to which insiders are willing to tolerate outsiders before mutualism slips into antagonism. To test the assertion by Karl Popper that unlimited tolerance leads to the demise of tolerance, we model a society under a growing incursion from the outside. Guided by their traditions of maintaining the social fabric and prizing tolerance, the insiders reduce their benevolence toward the growing subpopulation of outsiders but do not invoke punishment. This reduction of benevolence intensifies as less tolerant insiders (e.g., "radicals") openly renounce benevolence. Although more tolerant insiders maintain some level of benevolence, they may also tacitly support radicals out of fear for the future. If radicals and their tacit supporters achieve a critical majority, herd behavior ensues and the relation between the insider and outsider subpopulations turns antagonistic. To control the risk of unwanted social dynamics, we map the parameter space within which the tolerance of insiders is in balance with the assimilation of outsiders, the tolerant insiders maintain a sustainable majority, and any reduction in benevolence occurs smoothly. We also identify the circumstances that cause the relations between insiders and outsiders to collapse or that lead to the dominance of the outsiders.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2015

Agent-based mapping of credit risk for sustainable microfinance

Inspired by recent ideas on how the analysis of complex financial risks can benefit from analogies with independent research areas, we propose an unorthodox framework for mapping microfinance credit risk---a major obstacle to the sustainability of lenders outreaching to the poor. Specifically, using the elements of network theory, we constructed an agent-based model that obeys the stylised rules of microfinance industry. We found that in a deteriorating economic environment confounded with adverse selection, a form of latent moral hazard may cause a regime shift from a high to a low loan repayment probability. An after-the-fact recovery, when possible, required the economic environment to improve beyond that which led to the shift in the first place. These findings suggest a small set of measurable quantities for mapping microfinance credit risk and, consequently, for balancing the requirements to reasonably price loans and to operate on a fully self-financed basis. We illustrate how the proposed mapping works using a 10-year monthly data set from one of the best-known microfinance representatives, Grameen Bank in Bangladesh. Finally, we discuss an entirely new perspective for managing microfinance credit risk based on enticing spontaneous cooperation by building social capital.

q-fin.RM↗