arXiv subjects

Markus B. Pettersson

Publications and source records attributed to Markus B. Pettersson.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Beyond Point Predictions: Uncertainty-Aware Satellite Poverty Mapping for Public Policy

Despite their critical importance for policy and research, high-resolution poverty data remain limited across much of Africa. Machine learning (ML) with earth observation (EO) imagery has recently emerged as a way to supplement these data by predicting (i.e., estimating) poverty where it has not been directly measured. Yet to be used reliably, decision-makers and analysts need assurances that they will not be misled by the errors in these predictions. To meet this need, we develop an uncertainty-aware EO-ML method for poverty mapping based on simultaneous quantile regression and a novel form of conformal prediction. Using a spatiotemporal transformer trained on sequences of Landsat and nighttime-light images, we produce prediction intervals for neighborhood-level International Wealth Index estimates across Africa which are statistically guaranteed to achieve their desired coverage rates. While our method's point-prediction performance matches the state of the art, its prediction intervals are wider than might be expected given its high $R^2$ of $0.75$. However, other models of similar accuracy likely suffer from comparable uncertainty, pointing to an inherent limitation: even with its remarkably high explanatory power, EO-ML cannot naively be relied upon for policy-making, such as when designing poverty-targeting programs. To handle this challenge, we develop a procedure to efficiently allocate aid using both ground-truth surveys and model predictions while provably ensuring the risk of excluding eligible neighborhoods remains below a prespecified level. In simulations, this approach delivers substantially more aid per eligible recipient than other strategies, thereby demonstrating that EO-ML can indeed be a reliable supplement to traditional data sources.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

A High Resolution Urban and Rural Settlement Map of Africa Using Deep Learning and Satellite Imagery

Accurate and consistent mapping of urban and rural areas is crucial for sustainable development, spatial planning, and policy design. It is particularly important in simulating the complex interactions between human activities and natural resources. Existing global urban-rural datasets such as such as GHSL-SMOD, GHS Degree of Urbanisation, and GRUMP are often spatially coarse, methodologically inconsistent, and poorly adapted to heterogeneous regions such as Africa, which limits their usefulness for policy and research. Their coarse grids and rule-based classification methods obscure small or informal settlements, and produce inconsistencies between countries. In this study, we develop a DeepLabV3-based deep learning framework that integrates multi-source data, including Landsat-8 imagery, VIIRS nighttime lights, ESRI Land Use Land Cover (LULC), and GHS-SMOD, to produce a 10m resolution urban-rural map across the African continent from 2016 to 2022. The use of Landsat data also highlights the potential to extend this mapping approach historically, reaching back to the 1990s. The model employs semantic segmentation to capture fine-scale settlement morphology, and its outputs are validated using the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) dataset, which provides independent, survey-based urban-rural labels. The model achieves an overall accuracy of 65% and a Kappa coefficient of 0.47 at the continental scale, outperforming existing global products such as SMOD. The resulting High-Resolution Urban-Rural (HUR) dataset provides an open and reproducible framework for mapping human settlements, enabling more context-aware analyses of Africa's rapidly evolving settlement systems. We release a continent-wide urban-rural dataset covering the period from 2016 to 2022, offering a new source for high-resolution settlement mapping in Africa.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

Debiasing Machine Learning Predictions for Causal Inference Without Additional Ground Truth Data: "One Map, Many Trials" in Satellite-Driven Poverty Analysis

Machine learning models trained on Earth observation data, such as satellite imagery, have demonstrated significant promise in predicting household-level wealth indices, enabling the creation of high-resolution wealth maps that can be leveraged across multiple causal trials while addressing chronic data scarcity in global development research. However, because standard training objectives prioritize overall predictive accuracy, these predictions often suffer from shrinkage toward the mean, leading to attenuated estimates of causal treatment effects and limiting their utility in policy evaluations. Existing debiasing methods, such as Prediction-Powered Inference (PPI), can handle this attenuation bias but require additional fresh ground-truth data at the downstream stage of causal inference, which restricts their applicability in data-scarce environments. We introduce and evaluate two post-hoc correction methods -- Linear Calibration Correction (LCC) and a Tweedie's correction approach -- that substantially reduce shrinkage-induced prediction bias without relying on newly collected labeled data. LCC applies a simple linear transformation estimated on a held-out calibration split; Tweedie's method locally de-shrink predictions using density score estimates and a noise scale learned upstream. We provide practical diagnostics for when a correction is warranted and discuss practical limitations. Across analytical results, simulations, and experiments with Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) data, both approaches reduce attenuation; Tweedie's correction yields nearly unbiased treatment-effect estimates, enabling a "one map, many trials" paradigm. Although we demonstrate on EO-ML wealth mapping, the methods are not geospatial-specific: they apply to any setting where imputed outcomes are reused downstream (e.g., pollution indices, population density, or LLM-derived indicators).

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Leveraging Compact Satellite Embeddings and Graph Neural Networks for Large-Scale Poverty Mapping

Accurate, fine-grained poverty maps remain scarce across much of the Global South. While Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) provide high-quality socioeconomic data, their spatial coverage is limited and reported coordinates are randomly displaced for privacy, further reducing their quality. We propose a graph-based approach leveraging low-dimensional AlphaEarth satellite embeddings to predict cluster-level wealth indices across Sub-Saharan Africa. By modeling spatial relations between surveyed and unlabeled locations, and by introducing a probabilistic "fuzzy label" loss to account for coordinate displacement, we improve the generalization of wealth predictions beyond existing surveys. Our experiments on 37 DHS datasets (2017-2023) show that incorporating graph structure slightly improves accuracy compared to "image-only" baselines, demonstrating the potential of compact EO embeddings for large-scale socioeconomic mapping.

cs.LG↗