arXiv subjects

Markus Ulmer

Publications and source records attributed to Markus Ulmer.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Spectrally Deconfounded Random Forests

We introduce a modification of Random Forests to estimate functions when unobserved confounding variables are present. The technique is tailored for high-dimensional settings with many observed covariates. We use spectral deconfounding techniques to minimize a deconfounded version of the least squares objective, resulting in the Spectrally Deconfounded Random Forests (SDForests). We show how the omitted variable bias gets small given some assumptions. We compare the performance of SDForests to classical Random Forests in a simulation study and a semi-synthetic setting using single-cell gene expression data. Empirical results suggest that SDForests outperform classical Random Forests in estimating the direct regression function, even if the theoretical assumptions, requiring linear and dense confounding, are not perfectly met, and that SDForests have comparable performance in the non-confounded case.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2024

Ancestor regression in structural vector autoregressive models

We present a new method for causal discovery in linear structural vector autoregressive models. We adapt an idea designed for independent observations to the case of time series while retaining its favorable properties, i.e., explicit error control for false causal discovery, at least asymptotically. We apply our method to several real-world bivariate time series datasets and discuss its findings which mostly agree with common understanding. The arrow of time in a model can be interpreted as background knowledge on possible causal mechanisms. Hence, our ideas could be extended to incorporating different background knowledge, even for independent observations.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

A Generic Machine Learning Framework for Fully-Unsupervised Anomaly Detection with Contaminated Data

Anomaly detection (AD) tasks have been solved using machine learning algorithms in various domains and applications. The great majority of these algorithms use normal data to train a residual-based model and assign anomaly scores to unseen samples based on their dissimilarity with the learned normal regime. The underlying assumption of these approaches is that anomaly-free data is available for training. This is, however, often not the case in real-world operational settings, where the training data may be contaminated with an unknown fraction of abnormal samples. Training with contaminated data, in turn, inevitably leads to a deteriorated AD performance of the residual-based algorithms. In this paper we introduce a framework for a fully unsupervised refinement of contaminated training data for AD tasks. The framework is generic and can be applied to any residual-based machine learning model. We demonstrate the application of the framework to two public datasets of multivariate time series machine data from different application fields. We show its clear superiority over the naive approach of training with contaminated data without refinement. Moreover, we compare it to the ideal, unrealistic reference in which anomaly-free data would be available for training. The method is based on evaluating the contribution of individual samples to the generalization ability of a given model, and contrasting the contribution of anomalies with the one of normal samples. As a result, the proposed approach is comparable to, and often outperforms training with normal samples only.

cs.LG↗