arXiv subjects

Marshall Burke

Publications and source records attributed to Marshall Burke.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A satellite foundation model for improved wealth monitoring

Poverty statistics guide social policy, but in many low- and middle-income countries, censuses and household surveys that collect these data are costly, infrequent, quickly outdated, and sometimes error-prone. Satellite imagery offers global coverage and the possibility of predicting economic livelihoods at scale, yet existing approaches to predicting livelihoods with imagery or other non-traditional data often fail to reliably identify local-level variation and, as we show, degrade under temporal shift. Here we introduce Tempov, a satellite foundation model pretrained by self-supervision on three million bi-temporal Landsat pairs and adapted with parameter-efficient fine-tuning to sparse survey labels. The model enables large-scale, high-resolution wealth mapping and dynamic measurement, including zero-shot nowcasting up to a decade after observed labels, retrospective hindcasting, and decadal change tracking, while outperforming existing neural network and geospatial foundation-model baselines. In low-label regimes, Tempov achieves competitive accuracy with only 10% of survey samples, indicating substantially reduced dependence on expensive label collection. The model further generalizes across populous countries within and outside Africa, and scales to a unified Africa-wide model with strong continent-level performance ($R^2=0.63$, $r^2=0.68$), from which we generate high-resolution decadal maps of wealth and wealth changes for the African continent. Analysis of these maps shows large variation in recent economic performance both within and across countries. Our open-source approach provides a pathway to timely, scalable, low-cost monitoring of wealth and poverty from routinely collected satellite data.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2025

Attributing excess conflict risk in Syria to anthropogenic climate change

Some analyses suggest that drought in Syria during 2007-10 may have contributed to the 2011 onset of its civil war and that anthropogenic climate change had a detectable impact on the severity of that drought. Yet these qualitative statements alone do not allow us to estimate {how much} anthropogenic climate change amplified the risk of civil war in Syria. Climate policy is increasingly relying on global-scale cost-benefit analyses to inform major decisions, and any excess conflict risk imposed on future populations should be considered in this accounting because of its substantial human and economic impact. In order for this excess conflict risk to be accounted for, it must be quantified and its uncertainty characterized. Here we build on multiple recent findings in the literature to construct a best estimate for the excess conflict risk borne by Syria in 2010 that was attributable to anthropogenic climate change. We estimate that the baseline risk of conflict in Syria, which was likely already high, was amplified roughly 3.6% (90% confidence interval: 1.1-7.3%) due to the anthropogenic component of the drought. The effect of climate change was thus discernible but unlikely responsible for the bulk of Syrian conflict risk. Nevertheless, the magnitude of similar excess risk around the globe is expected to grow as climate change progresses, and its human cost could be large because most populations will face positive excess risk. Our approach to quantifying this risk is applicable to these other settings.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

Large Language Models are Geographically Biased

Large Language Models (LLMs) inherently carry the biases contained in their training corpora, which can lead to the perpetuation of societal harm. As the impact of these foundation models grows, understanding and evaluating their biases becomes crucial to achieving fairness and accuracy. We propose to study what LLMs know about the world we live in through the lens of geography. This approach is particularly powerful as there is ground truth for the numerous aspects of human life that are meaningfully projected onto geographic space such as culture, race, language, politics, and religion. We show various problematic geographic biases, which we define as systemic errors in geospatial predictions. Initially, we demonstrate that LLMs are capable of making accurate zero-shot geospatial predictions in the form of ratings that show strong monotonic correlation with ground truth (Spearman's $ρ$ of up to 0.89). We then show that LLMs exhibit common biases across a range of objective and subjective topics. In particular, LLMs are clearly biased against locations with lower socioeconomic conditions (e.g. most of Africa) on a variety of sensitive subjective topics such as attractiveness, morality, and intelligence (Spearman's $ρ$ of up to 0.70). Finally, we introduce a bias score to quantify this and find that there is significant variation in the magnitude of bias across existing LLMs. Code is available on the project website: https://rohinmanvi.github.io/GeoLLM

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

DiffusionSat: A Generative Foundation Model for Satellite Imagery

Diffusion models have achieved state-of-the-art results on many modalities including images, speech, and video. However, existing models are not tailored to support remote sensing data, which is widely used in important applications including environmental monitoring and crop-yield prediction. Satellite images are significantly different from natural images -- they can be multi-spectral, irregularly sampled across time -- and existing diffusion models trained on images from the Web do not support them. Furthermore, remote sensing data is inherently spatio-temporal, requiring conditional generation tasks not supported by traditional methods based on captions or images. In this paper, we present DiffusionSat, to date the largest generative foundation model trained on a collection of publicly available large, high-resolution remote sensing datasets. As text-based captions are sparsely available for satellite images, we incorporate the associated metadata such as geolocation as conditioning information. Our method produces realistic samples and can be used to solve multiple generative tasks including temporal generation, superresolution given multi-spectral inputs and in-painting. Our method outperforms previous state-of-the-art methods for satellite image generation and is the first large-scale generative foundation model for satellite imagery. The project website can be found here: https://samar-khanna.github.io/DiffusionSat/

cs.CV↗

arXiv2024

GeoLLM: Extracting Geospatial Knowledge from Large Language Models

The application of machine learning (ML) in a range of geospatial tasks is increasingly common but often relies on globally available covariates such as satellite imagery that can either be expensive or lack predictive power. Here we explore the question of whether the vast amounts of knowledge found in Internet language corpora, now compressed within large language models (LLMs), can be leveraged for geospatial prediction tasks. We first demonstrate that LLMs embed remarkable spatial information about locations, but naively querying LLMs using geographic coordinates alone is ineffective in predicting key indicators like population density. We then present GeoLLM, a novel method that can effectively extract geospatial knowledge from LLMs with auxiliary map data from OpenStreetMap. We demonstrate the utility of our approach across multiple tasks of central interest to the international community, including the measurement of population density and economic livelihoods. Across these tasks, our method demonstrates a 70% improvement in performance (measured using Pearson's $r^2$) relative to baselines that use nearest neighbors or use information directly from the prompt, and performance equal to or exceeding satellite-based benchmarks in the literature. With GeoLLM, we observe that GPT-3.5 outperforms Llama 2 and RoBERTa by 19% and 51% respectively, suggesting that the performance of our method scales well with the size of the model and its pretraining dataset. Our experiments reveal that LLMs are remarkably sample-efficient, rich in geospatial information, and robust across the globe. Crucially, GeoLLM shows promise in mitigating the limitations of existing geospatial covariates and complementing them well. Code is available on the project website: https://rohinmanvi.github.io/GeoLLM

cs.CL↗

arXiv2023

SatMAE: Pre-training Transformers for Temporal and Multi-Spectral Satellite Imagery

Unsupervised pre-training methods for large vision models have shown to enhance performance on downstream supervised tasks. Developing similar techniques for satellite imagery presents significant opportunities as unlabelled data is plentiful and the inherent temporal and multi-spectral structure provides avenues to further improve existing pre-training strategies. In this paper, we present SatMAE, a pre-training framework for temporal or multi-spectral satellite imagery based on Masked Autoencoder (MAE). To leverage temporal information, we include a temporal embedding along with independently masking image patches across time. In addition, we demonstrate that encoding multi-spectral data as groups of bands with distinct spectral positional encodings is beneficial. Our approach yields strong improvements over previous state-of-the-art techniques, both in terms of supervised learning performance on benchmark datasets (up to $\uparrow$ 7%), and transfer learning performance on downstream remote sensing tasks, including land cover classification (up to $\uparrow$ 14%) and semantic segmentation. Code and data are available on the project website: https://sustainlab-group.github.io/SatMAE/

cs.CV↗

arXiv2023

Building Coverage Estimation with Low-resolution Remote Sensing Imagery

Building coverage statistics provide crucial insights into the urbanization, infrastructure, and poverty level of a region, facilitating efforts towards alleviating poverty, building sustainable cities, and allocating infrastructure investments and public service provision. Global mapping of buildings has been made more efficient with the incorporation of deep learning models into the pipeline. However, these models typically rely on high-resolution satellite imagery which are expensive to collect and infrequently updated. As a result, building coverage data are not updated timely especially in developing regions where the built environment is changing quickly. In this paper, we propose a method for estimating building coverage using only publicly available low-resolution satellite imagery that is more frequently updated. We show that having a multi-node quantile regression layer greatly improves the model's spatial and temporal generalization. Our model achieves a coefficient of determination ($R^2$) as high as 0.968 on predicting building coverage in regions of different levels of development around the world. We demonstrate that the proposed model accurately predicts the building coverage from raw input images and generalizes well to unseen countries and continents, suggesting the possibility of estimating global building coverage using only low-resolution remote sensing data.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2022

Detecting Crop Burning in India using Satellite Data

Crop residue burning is a major source of air pollution in many parts of the world, notably South Asia. Policymakers, practitioners and researchers have invested in both measuring impacts and developing interventions to reduce burning. However, measuring the impacts of burning or the effectiveness of interventions to reduce burning requires data on where burning occurred. These data are challenging to collect in the field, both in terms of cost and feasibility. We take advantage of data from ground-based monitoring of crop residue burning in Punjab, India to explore whether burning can be detected more effectively using accessible satellite imagery. Specifically, we used 3m PlanetScope data with high temporal resolution (up to daily) as well as publicly-available Sentinel-2 data with weekly temporal resolution but greater depth of spectral information. Following an analysis of the ability of different spectral bands and burn indices to separate burned and unburned plots individually, we built a Random Forest model with those determined to provide the greatest separability and evaluated model performance with ground-verified data. Our overall model accuracy of 82-percent is favorable given the challenges presented by the measurement. Based on insights from this process, we discuss technical challenges of detecting crop residue burning from satellite imagery as well as challenges to measuring impacts, both of burning and of policy interventions.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2022

Spatial-Temporal Super-Resolution of Satellite Imagery via Conditional Pixel Synthesis

High-resolution satellite imagery has proven useful for a broad range of tasks, including measurement of global human population, local economic livelihoods, and biodiversity, among many others. Unfortunately, high-resolution imagery is both infrequently collected and expensive to purchase, making it hard to efficiently and effectively scale these downstream tasks over both time and space. We propose a new conditional pixel synthesis model that uses abundant, low-cost, low-resolution imagery to generate accurate high-resolution imagery at locations and times in which it is unavailable. We show that our model attains photo-realistic sample quality and outperforms competing baselines on a key downstream task -- object counting -- particularly in geographic locations where conditions on the ground are changing rapidly.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2022

Tracking Urbanization in Developing Regions with Remote Sensing Spatial-Temporal Super-Resolution

Automated tracking of urban development in areas where construction information is not available became possible with recent advancements in machine learning and remote sensing. Unfortunately, these solutions perform best on high-resolution imagery, which is expensive to acquire and infrequently available, making it difficult to scale over long time spans and across large geographies. In this work, we propose a pipeline that leverages a single high-resolution image and a time series of publicly available low-resolution images to generate accurate high-resolution time series for object tracking in urban construction. Our method achieves significant improvement in comparison to baselines using single image super-resolution, and can assist in extending the accessibility and scalability of building construction tracking across the developing world.

eess.IV↗

arXiv2022

Geography-Aware Self-Supervised Learning

Contrastive learning methods have significantly narrowed the gap between supervised and unsupervised learning on computer vision tasks. In this paper, we explore their application to geo-located datasets, e.g. remote sensing, where unlabeled data is often abundant but labeled data is scarce. We first show that due to their different characteristics, a non-trivial gap persists between contrastive and supervised learning on standard benchmarks. To close the gap, we propose novel training methods that exploit the spatio-temporal structure of remote sensing data. We leverage spatially aligned images over time to construct temporal positive pairs in contrastive learning and geo-location to design pre-text tasks. Our experiments show that our proposed method closes the gap between contrastive and supervised learning on image classification, object detection and semantic segmentation for remote sensing. Moreover, we demonstrate that the proposed method can also be applied to geo-tagged ImageNet images, improving downstream performance on various tasks. Project Webpage can be found at this link geography-aware-ssl.github.io.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2021

IS-COUNT: Large-scale Object Counting from Satellite Images with Covariate-based Importance Sampling

Object detection in high-resolution satellite imagery is emerging as a scalable alternative to on-the-ground survey data collection in many environmental and socioeconomic monitoring applications. However, performing object detection over large geographies can still be prohibitively expensive due to the high cost of purchasing imagery and compute. Inspired by traditional survey data collection strategies, we propose an approach to estimate object count statistics over large geographies through sampling. Given a cost budget, our method selects a small number of representative areas by sampling from a learnable proposal distribution. Using importance sampling, we are able to accurately estimate object counts after processing only a small fraction of the images compared to an exhaustive approach. We show empirically that the proposed framework achieves strong performance on estimating the number of buildings in the United States and Africa, cars in Kenya, brick kilns in Bangladesh, and swimming pools in the U.S., while requiring as few as 0.01% of satellite images compared to an exhaustive approach.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2021

SustainBench: Benchmarks for Monitoring the Sustainable Development Goals with Machine Learning

Progress toward the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) has been hindered by a lack of data on key environmental and socioeconomic indicators, which historically have come from ground surveys with sparse temporal and spatial coverage. Recent advances in machine learning have made it possible to utilize abundant, frequently-updated, and globally available data, such as from satellites or social media, to provide insights into progress toward SDGs. Despite promising early results, approaches to using such data for SDG measurement thus far have largely evaluated on different datasets or used inconsistent evaluation metrics, making it hard to understand whether performance is improving and where additional research would be most fruitful. Furthermore, processing satellite and ground survey data requires domain knowledge that many in the machine learning community lack. In this paper, we introduce SustainBench, a collection of 15 benchmark tasks across 7 SDGs, including tasks related to economic development, agriculture, health, education, water and sanitation, climate action, and life on land. Datasets for 11 of the 15 tasks are released publicly for the first time. Our goals for SustainBench are to (1) lower the barriers to entry for the machine learning community to contribute to measuring and achieving the SDGs; (2) provide standard benchmarks for evaluating machine learning models on tasks across a variety of SDGs; and (3) encourage the development of novel machine learning methods where improved model performance facilitates progress towards the SDGs.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Using Satellite Imagery and Machine Learning to Estimate the Livelihood Impact of Electricity Access

In many regions of the world, sparse data on key economic outcomes inhibits the development, targeting, and evaluation of public policy. We demonstrate how advancements in satellite imagery and machine learning can help ameliorate these data and inference challenges. In the context of an expansion of the electrical grid across Uganda, we show how a combination of satellite imagery and computer vision can be used to develop local-level livelihood measurements appropriate for inferring the causal impact of electricity access on livelihoods. We then show how ML-based inference techniques deliver more reliable estimates of the causal impact of electrification than traditional alternatives when applied to these data. We estimate that grid access improves village-level asset wealth in rural Uganda by 0.17 standard deviations, more than doubling the growth rate over our study period relative to untreated areas. Our results provide country-scale evidence on the impact of a key infrastructure investment, and provide a low-cost, generalizable approach to future policy evaluation in data sparse environments.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2021

Wildfire smoke plume segmentation using geostationary satellite imagery

Wildfires have increased in frequency and severity over the past two decades, especially in the Western United States. Beyond physical infrastructure damage caused by these wildfire events, researchers have increasingly identified harmful impacts of particulate matter generated by wildfire smoke on respiratory, cardiovascular, and cognitive health. This inference is difficult due to the spatial and temporal uncertainty regarding how much particulate matter is specifically attributable to wildfire smoke. One factor contributing to this challenge is the reliance on manually drawn smoke plume annotations, which are often noisy representations limited to the United States. This work uses deep convolutional neural networks to segment smoke plumes from geostationary satellite imagery. We compare the performance of predicted plume segmentations versus the noisy annotations using causal inference methods to estimate the amount of variation each explains in Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) measured surface level particulate matter <2.5um in diameter ($\textrm{PM}_{2.5}$).

cs.CV↗

arXiv2021

Predicting Livelihood Indicators from Community-Generated Street-Level Imagery

Major decisions from governments and other large organizations rely on measurements of the populace's well-being, but making such measurements at a broad scale is expensive and thus infrequent in much of the developing world. We propose an inexpensive, scalable, and interpretable approach to predict key livelihood indicators from public crowd-sourced street-level imagery. Such imagery can be cheaply collected and more frequently updated compared to traditional surveying methods, while containing plausibly relevant information for a range of livelihood indicators. We propose two approaches to learn from the street-level imagery: (1) a method that creates multi-household cluster representations by detecting informative objects and (2) a graph-based approach that captures the relationships between images. By visualizing what features are important to a model and how they are used, we can help end-user organizations understand the models and offer an alternate approach for index estimation that uses cheaply obtained roadway features. By comparing our results against ground data collected in nationally-representative household surveys, we demonstrate the performance of our approach in accurately predicting indicators of poverty, population, and health and its scalability by testing in two different countries, India and Kenya. Our code is available at https://github.com/sustainlab-group/mapillarygcn.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2021

Efficient Poverty Mapping using Deep Reinforcement Learning

The combination of high-resolution satellite imagery and machine learning have proven useful in many sustainability-related tasks, including poverty prediction, infrastructure measurement, and forest monitoring. However, the accuracy afforded by high-resolution imagery comes at a cost, as such imagery is extremely expensive to purchase at scale. This creates a substantial hurdle to the efficient scaling and widespread adoption of high-resolution-based approaches. To reduce acquisition costs while maintaining accuracy, we propose a reinforcement learning approach in which free low-resolution imagery is used to dynamically identify where to acquire costly high-resolution images, prior to performing a deep learning task on the high-resolution images. We apply this approach to the task of poverty prediction in Uganda, building on an earlier approach that used object detection to count objects and use these counts to predict poverty. Our approach exceeds previous performance benchmarks on this task while using 80% fewer high-resolution images. Our approach could have application in many sustainability domains that require high-resolution imagery.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2020

Using satellite imagery to understand and promote sustainable development

Accurate and comprehensive measurements of a range of sustainable development outcomes are fundamental inputs into both research and policy. We synthesize the growing literature that uses satellite imagery to understand these outcomes, with a focus on approaches that combine imagery with machine learning. We quantify the paucity of ground data on key human-related outcomes and the growing abundance and resolution (spatial, temporal, and spectral) of satellite imagery. We then review recent machine learning approaches to model-building in the context of scarce and noisy training data, highlighting how this noise often leads to incorrect assessment of models' predictive performance. We quantify recent model performance across multiple sustainable development domains, discuss research and policy applications, explore constraints to future progress, and highlight key research directions for the field.

cs.CY↗