arXiv subjects

Marta Victoria

Publications and source records attributed to Marta Victoria.

27 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

Comparative analysis of PV configurations for agrivoltaic systems in Europe

Agrivoltaics (APV) is the dual use of land by combining agricultural crop production and photovoltaic (PV) systems. In this work, we have analyzed three different APV configurations: static with optimal tilt, vertically-mounted bifacial, and single-axis horizontal tracking. A model is developed to calculate the shadowing losses on the PV panels along with the reduced solar irradiation reaching the area under them for different PV capacity densities. First, we investigate the trade-offs using a location in Denmark as a case study and second, we extrapolate the analysis to the rest of Europe. We find that the vertical and single-axis tracking produce more uniform irradiance on the ground, and a capacity density of around 30 W/m2 is suitable for APV systems. Based on our model and a 100 m-resolution land cover database, we calculate the potential for APV in every NUTS-2 region within the European Union (EU). The potential for APV is enormous as the electricity generated by APV systems could produce 28 times the current electricity demand in Europe. Overall, the potential capacity for APV in Europe is 51 TW, which would result in an electricity yield of 71500 TWh/year.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2022

Speed of technological transformations required in Europe to achieve different climate goals

Europe's contribution to global warming will be determined by the cumulative emissions until climate neutrality is achieved. In this paper, we investigate alternative transition paths under carbon budgets corresponding to temperature increases between 1.5 and 2C. We use PyPSA-Eur-Sec, an open model of the sector-coupled European energy system with high spatial and temporal resolution. All the paths entail similar technological transformations, but the timing of the scale-up of important technologies like water electrolysis, carbon capture and hydrogen networks differs in the model. In our results, solar PV, onshore and offshore wind become the cornerstone of a net-zero energy system enabling the decarbonisation of other sectors via direct electrification (e.g. heat pumps and electric vehicles) or indirect electrification (e.g. using synthetic fuels). Under the cost and performance assumptions applied, for a social cost of carbon (SCC) of 120EUR/tCO2, transition paths under 1.5 and 1.6C budgets are, respectively, 8%, and 1% more expensive than the 2C-budget because building assets earlier costs more. These pathways also see a faster ramp-up of new technologies before 2035. Under these assumptions, the 1.5C-budget is cost-optimal in our model, if SCC of at least 300 EUR/tCO2 is considered. Moreover, we discuss the strong implications of the SCC and discount rate assumed when comparing alternative paths. We also analyse the consequences of different assumptions on the cost and potential of CO2 sequestration.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Modeling all alternative solutions for highly renewable energy systems

As the world is transitioning towards highly renewable energy systems, advanced tools are needed to analyze such complex networks. Energy system design is, however, challenged by real-world objective functions consisting of a blurry mix of technical and socioeconomic agendas, with limitations that cannot always be clearly stated. As a result, it is highly likely that solutions which are techno-economically suboptimal will be preferable. Here, we present a method capable of determining the continuum containing all techno-economically near-optimal solutions, moving the field of energy system modeling from discrete solutions to a new era where continuous solution ranges are available. The presented method is applied to study a range of technical and socioeconomic metrics on a model of the European electricity system. The near-optimal region is found to be relatively flat allowing for solutions that are slightly more expensive than the optimum but better in terms of equality, land use, and implementation time.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2021

Future operation of hydropower in Europe under high renewable penetration and climate change

The balancing provided by hydropower reservoirs is essential in the transition towards a decarbonised European energy system, but the resource might be impacted by future climate change. In this work, we first analyse the hydropower operation needed to balance a wind and solar dominated European energy system, to signify whether and to what extent hydropower is required to operate differently due to the decarbonisation of the energy system. Second, we apply runoff data achieved with 10 dynamically downscaled climate models with 0.11 x 0.11 deg horizontal and daily resolution to project the future reservoir inflow at three CO2 emissions scenarios: low (RCP2.6), mid (RCP4.5), and high emissions (RCP8.5). We show that the decarbonised energy system increases the ramp rates and seasonality of the hydropower operation. Despite large interannual and intermodel variability, we found a significant change in annual inflow due to climate change in 20 out of 22 European countries at the mid and high emissions scenarios. The seasonal profile, as well as the frequency and duration of droughts and floods, is also projected to be impacted.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2021

Self-consumption for energy communities in Spain: a regional analysis under the new legal framework

European climate polices acknowledge the role that energy communities can play in the energy transition. Self-consumption installations shared among those living in the same building are a good example of such energy communities. In this work, we perform a regional analysis of optimal self-consumption installations under the new legal framework recently passed in Spain. Results show that the optimal sizing of the installation leads to economic savings for self-consumers in all the territory, for both options with and without remuneration for energy surplus. A sensitivity analysis on technology costs revealed that batteries still require noticeably cost reductions to be cost-effective in a behind the meter self-consumption environment. In addition, solar compensation mechanisms make batteries less attractive in a scenario of low PV costs, since feeding PV surplus into the grid, yet less efficient, becomes more cost-effective. An improvement for the current energy surplus remuneration policy was proposed and analysed. It consists in the inclusion of the economic value of the avoided power losses in the remuneration.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2020

Early decarbonisation of the European energy system pays off

For a given carbon budget over several decades, different transformation rates for the energy system yield starkly different results. Here we consider a budget of 33 GtCO2 for the cumulative carbon dioxide emissions from the European electricity, heating, and transport sectors between 2020 and 2050, which represents Europe's contribution to the Paris Agreement. We have found that following an early and steady path in which emissions are strongly reduced in the first decade is more cost-effective than following a late and rapid path in which low initial reduction targets quickly deplete the carbon budget and require a sharp reduction later. We show that solar photovoltaic, onshore and offshore wind can become the cornerstone of a fully decarbonised energy system and that installation rates similar to historical maxima are required to achieve timely decarbonisation. Key to those results is a proper representation of existing balancing strategies through an open, hourly-resolved, networked model of the sector-coupled European energy system.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

The role of photovoltaics in a sustainable European energy system under variable CO2 emissions targets, transmission capacities, and costs assumptions

PyPSA-Eur-Sec-30 is an open-source, hourly-resolved, networked model of the European energy system which includes one node per country as well as electricity, heating, and transport sectors. The capacity and dispatch of generation and storage technologies in every country can be cost-optimised under different CO2 emissions constraints. This paper presents an overview of the most relevant results previously obtained with the model, highlighting the influence of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation on them. For 95% CO2 emissions reduction, relative to 1990 level, PV generation supplies in average 33% of the electricity demand. Southern European countries install large PV capacities together with electric batteries, while northern countries install onshore and offshore wind capacities and use hydrogen storage and reinforced interconnections to deal with wind fluctuations. The strong daily generation profile of solar PV heavily impacts the dispatch time series of backup generation and storage technologies. The optimal PV and wind capacities are investigated for variable CO2 emissions, transmission interconnection among neighbouring countries, and cost assumptions.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

The role of storage technologies throughout the decarbonisation of the sector-coupled European energy system

We use an open, hourly-resolved, networked model of the European energy system to investigate the storage requirements under decreasing CO$_2$ emissions targets and several sector-coupling scenarios. For the power system, significant storage capacities only emerge for CO$_2$ reductions higher than 80% of 1990 level in that sector. For 95% CO$_2$ reductions, the optimal system includes electric batteries and hydrogen storage energy capacities equivalent to 1.4 and 19.4 times the average hourly electricity demand. Coupling heating and transport sectors enables deeper global CO$_2$ reductions before the required storage capacities become significant, which highlights the importance of sector coupling strategies in the transition to low carbon energy systems. A binary selection of storage technologies is consistently found, i.e., electric batteries act as short-term storage to counterbalance solar photovoltaic generation while hydrogen storage smooths wind fluctuations. Flexibility from the electric vehicle batteries provided by coupling the transport sector avoid the need for additional stationary batteries and reduce the usage of pumped hydro storage. Coupling the heating sector brings to the system large capacities of thermal energy storage to compensate for the significant seasonal variation in heating demand.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

Using validated reanalysis data to investigate the impact of the PV system configurations at high penetration levels in European countries

Long-term hourly time series representing the PV generation in European countries have been obtained and made available under open license. For every country, four different PV configurations, i.e. rooftop, optimum tilt, tracking, and delta have been investigated. These are shown to have a strong influence in the hourly difference between electricity demand and PV generation. To obtain PV time series, irradiance from CFSR reanalysis dataset is converted into electricity generation and aggregated at country level. Prior to conversion, reanalysis irradiance is bias corrected using satellite-based SARAH dataset and a globally-applicable methodology. Moreover, a novel procedure is proposed to infer the orientation and inclination angles representative for PV panels based on the historical PV output throughout the days around summer and winter solstices. A key strength of the methodology is that it doesn't rely on historical PV output data. Consequently, it can be applied in places with no existing knowledge of PV performance.

physics.soc-ph↗