arXiv subjects

Martial Mermillod

Publications and source records attributed to Martial Mermillod.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Foundation vs. Specialized Models: Evaluating Catastrophic Forgetting in Continual Time Series Forecasting

While Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) excel in zero-shot tasks, their behavior under continual fine tuning is poorly understood. We present the first systematic study of catastrophic forgetting in TSFMs (TimesFM-2.0, Chronos-2) versus a specialized SamFormer model across synthetic and real-world energy forecasting benchmarks. Our results show that while fine-tuning improves new task accuracy, it consistently triggers forgetting, though larger models exhibit greater inherent robustness. Notably, employing forgetting mitigation techniques such as DER, levels the playing field: it provides disproportionate gains to smaller models, allowing them to match TSFM performance by the end of the continual learning sequence. These findings suggest that in realistic, non-stationary scenarios, the high computational cost of large foundation models may not be justified over smaller models equipped with effective mitigation strategies.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Are Current Continual Learning Methods Truly Agnostic? Introducing OPRE, a Step Toward Agnostic Continual Learning

In order to achieve Continual Learning (CL), the problem of catastrophic forgetting, one that has plagued neural networks since their inception, must be overcome. The evaluation of continual learning methods relies on splitting a known homogeneous dataset and learning the associated tasks one after the other. We argue that most CL methods introduce a priori information about the data to come and cannot be considered agnostic. We exemplify this point with the case of methods relying on pretrained feature extractors, which are still used in CL. After showing that pretrained feature extractors imply a loss of generality with respect to the data that can be learned by the model, we then discuss other kinds of a priori information introduced in other CL methods. We then present the Online Patch Redundancy Eliminator (OPRE), an online dataset-compression algorithm that discards information through two explicit, input-space criteria. With a classifier that was randomly initialized at test time, OPRE's performance matches reported state-of-the-art online continual-learning methods on CIFAR 10 and CIFAR-100 without any pretrained feature extractor, and outperforms GDumb at an identical memory budget-while making only minimal and interpretable assumptions about the data to come. We frame these results as an empirical, information-theoretic perspective on continual learning.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

How Foundational are Foundation Models for Time Series Forecasting?

Foundation Models are designed to serve as versatile embedding machines, with strong zero shot capabilities and superior generalization performance when fine-tuned on diverse downstream tasks. While this is largely true for language and vision foundation models, we argue that the inherent diversity of time series data makes them less suited for building effective foundation models. We demonstrate this using forecasting as our downstream task. We show that the zero-shot capabilities of a time series foundation model are significantly influenced and tied to the specific domains it has been pretrained on. Furthermore, when applied to unseen real-world time series data, fine-tuned foundation models do not consistently yield substantially better results, relative to their increased parameter count and memory footprint, than smaller, dedicated models tailored to the specific forecasting task at hand.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Impact of Spatial Frequency Based Constraints on Adversarial Robustness

Adversarial examples mainly exploit changes to input pixels to which humans are not sensitive to, and arise from the fact that models make decisions based on uninterpretable features. Interestingly, cognitive science reports that the process of interpretability for human classification decision relies predominantly on low spatial frequency components. In this paper, we investigate the robustness to adversarial perturbations of models enforced during training to leverage information corresponding to different spatial frequency ranges. We show that it is tightly linked to the spatial frequency characteristics of the data at stake. Indeed, depending on the data set, the same constraint may results in very different level of robustness (up to 0.41 adversarial accuracy difference). To explain this phenomenon, we conduct several experiments to enlighten influential factors such as the level of sensitivity to high frequencies, and the transferability of adversarial perturbations between original and low-pass filtered inputs.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Graph-based methods coupled with specific distributional distances for adversarial attack detection

Artificial neural networks are prone to being fooled by carefully perturbed inputs which cause an egregious misclassification. These \textit{adversarial} attacks have been the focus of extensive research. Likewise, there has been an abundance of research in ways to detect and defend against them. We introduce a novel approach of detection and interpretation of adversarial attacks from a graph perspective. For an input image, we compute an associated sparse graph using the layer-wise relevance propagation algorithm \cite{bach15}. Specifically, we only keep edges of the neural network with the highest relevance values. Three quantities are then computed from the graph which are then compared against those computed from the training set. The result of the comparison is a classification of the image as benign or adversarial. To make the comparison, two classification methods are introduced: 1) an explicit formula based on Wasserstein distance applied to the degree of node and 2) a logistic regression. Both classification methods produce strong results which lead us to believe that a graph-based interpretation of adversarial attacks is valuable.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Modelling risk-taking behaviour of avalanche accident victims

Each year, over 15000 requests for mountain rescue are counted in France. Avalanche accidents represent 39\% of reports, and are therefore our focus in this study. Modelling the behaviour of mountain accident victims is useful to develop more accurate rescue and prevention tools. Concretely, we observe the interference of two heuristics (availability and familiarity) in decision making when choosing an itinerary in backcountry skiing. We developed a serious game to evaluate their effect on the probability of engaging in a risky itinerary, while varying situational and environmental criteria in each participant (N = 278). The availability heuristic is operationalized by three situations, an avalanche accident video, a backcountry skiing video and a neutral context. The familiarity heuristic is operationalized by two criteria, strong and weak familiarity with the place. Results demonstrate the effects of both heuristics. Measurements through our serious game are discussed in the perspective of developing an interactive prevention tool for mitigating the negative effects of heuristics.

cs.CY↗