arXiv subjects

Martin A. Fernandez

Publications and source records attributed to Martin A. Fernandez.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Turning Up the Heat: Assessing 2-m Temperature Forecast Errors in AI Weather Prediction Models During Heat Waves

Extreme heat is the deadliest weather-related hazard in the United States. Furthermore, it is increasing in intensity, frequency, and duration, making skillful forecasts vital to protecting life and property. Traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models struggle with extreme heat for medium-range and subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales. Meanwhile, artificial intelligence-based weather prediction (AIWP) models are progressing rapidly. However, it is largely unknown how well AIWP models forecast extremes, especially for medium-range and S2S timescales. This study investigates 2-m temperature forecasts for 60 heat waves across the four boreal seasons and over four CONUS regions at lead times up to 20 days, using two AIWP models (Google GraphCast and Pangu-Weather) and one traditional NWP model (NOAA United Forecast System Global Ensemble Forecast System (UFS GEFS)). First, case study analyses show that both AIWP models and the UFS GEFS exhibit consistent cold biases on regional scales in the 5-10 days of lead time before heat wave onset. GraphCast is the more skillful AIWP model, outperforming UFS GEFS and Pangu-Weather in most locations. Next, the two AIWP models are isolated and analyzed across all heat waves and seasons, with events split among the model's testing (2018-2023) and training (1979-2017) periods. There are cold biases before and during the heat waves in both models and all seasons, except Pangu-Weather in winter, which exhibits a mean warm bias before heat wave onset. Overall, results offer encouragement that AIWP models may be useful for medium-range and S2S predictability of extreme heat.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2023

MF-Box: Multi-fidelity and multi-scale emulation for the matter power spectrum

We introduce MF-Box, an extended version of MFEmulator, designed as a fast surrogate for power spectra, trained using N-body simulation suites from various box sizes and particle loads. To demonstrate MF-Box's effectiveness, we design simulation suites that include low-fidelity suites (L1 and L2) at $256 \,\mathrm{Mpc}/h$ and $100 \,\mathrm{Mpc}/h$, each with $128^3$ particles, and a high-fidelity suite (HF) with $512^3$ particles at $256 \,\mathrm{Mpc}/h$, representing a higher particle load compared to the low-fidelity suites. MF-Box acts as a probabilistic resolution correction function, learning most of the cosmological dependencies from L1 and L2 simulations and rectifying resolution differences with just 3 HF simulations using a Gaussian process. MF-Box successfully emulates power spectra from our HF testing set with a relative error of $< 3\%$ up to $k \simeq 7 \,h/\mathrm{Mpc}$ at $z \in [0, 3]$, while maintaining a cost similar to our previous multi-fidelity approach, which was accurate only up to $z = 1$. The addition of an extra low-fidelity node in a smaller box significantly improves emulation accuracy for MF-Box at $k > 2 \,h/\mathrm{Mpc}$, increasing it by a factor of $10$. We conduct an error analysis of MF-Box based on computational budget, providing guidance for optimizing budget allocation per fidelity node. Our proposed MF-Box enables future surveys to efficiently combine simulation suites of varying quality, effectively expanding the range of emulation capabilities while ensuring cost efficiency.

astro-ph.CO↗