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Martin D. Gould

Publications and source records attributed to Martin D. Gould.

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A Unified Language Model for Large Scale Search, Recommendation, and Reasoning

LLMs are increasingly applied to recommendation, retrieval, and reasoning, yet deploying a single end-to-end model that can jointly support these behaviors over large, heterogeneous catalogs remains challenging. Such systems must generate unambiguous references to real items, handle multiple entity types, and operate under strict latency and reliability constraints requirements that are difficult to satisfy with text-only generation. While tool-augmented recommender systems address parts of this problem, they introduce orchestration complexity and limit end-to-end optimization. We view this setting as an instance of a broader research problem: how to adapt LLMs to reason jointly over multiple-domain entities, users, and language in a fully self-contained manner. To this end, we introduce NEO, a framework that adapts a pre-trained decoder-only LLM into a tool-free, catalog-grounded generator. NEO represents items as SIDs and trains a single model to interleave natural language and typed item identifiers within a shared sequence. Text prompts control the task, target entity type, and output format (IDs, text, or mixed), while constrained decoding guarantees catalog-valid item generation without restricting free-form text. We refer to this instruction-conditioned controllability as language-steerability. We treat SIDs as a distinct modality and study design choices for integrating discrete entity representations into LLMs via staged alignment and instruction tuning. We evaluate NEO at scale on a real-world catalog of over 10M items across multiple media types and discovery tasks, including recommendation, search, and user understanding. In offline experiments, NEO consistently outperforms strong task-specific baselines and exhibits cross-task transfer, demonstrating a practical path toward consolidating large-scale discovery capabilities into a single language-steerable generative model.

cs.IR

Deploying Semantic ID-based Generative Retrieval for Large-Scale Podcast Discovery at Spotify

Podcast listening is often grounded in a set of favorite shows, while listener intent can evolve over time. This combination of stable preferences and changing intent motivates recommendation approaches that support both familiarity and exploration. Traditional recommender systems typically emphasize long-term interaction patterns, and are less explicitly designed to incorporate rich contextual signals or flexible, intent-aware discovery objectives. In this setting, models that can jointly reason over semantics, context, and user state offer a promising direction. Large Language Models (LLMs) provide strong semantic reasoning and contextual conditioning for discovery-oriented recommendation, but deploying them in production introduces challenges in catalog grounding, user-level personalization, and latency-critical serving. We address these challenges with GLIDE, a production-scale generative recommender for podcast discovery at Spotify. GLIDE formulates recommendation as an instruction-following task over a discretized catalog using Semantic IDs, enabling grounded generation over a large inventory. The model conditions on recent listening history and lightweight user context, while injecting long-term user embeddings as soft prompts to capture stable preferences under strict inference constraints. We evaluate GLIDE using offline retrieval metrics, human judgments, and LLM-based evaluation, and validate its impact through large-scale online A/B testing. Across experiments involving millions of users, GLIDE increases non-habitual podcast streaming on Spotify home surface by up to 5.4% and new-show discovery by up to 14.3%, while meeting production cost and latency constraints.

cs.IR

Counterparty Credit Limits: The Impact of a Risk-Mitigation Measure on Everyday Trading

A counterparty credit limit (CCL) is a limit that is imposed by a financial institution to cap its maximum possible exposure to a specified counterparty. CCLs help institutions to mitigate counterparty credit risk via selective diversification of their exposures. In this paper, we analyze how CCLs impact the prices that institutions pay for their trades during everyday trading. We study a high-quality data set from a large electronic trading platform in the foreign exchange spot market, which enables institutions to apply CCLs. We find empirically that CCLs had little impact on the vast majority of trades in this data. We also study the impact of CCLs using a new model of trading. By simulating our model with different underlying CCL networks, we highlight that CCLs can have a major impact in some situations.

q-fin.TR

Multi-Level Order-Flow Imbalance in a Limit Order Book

We study the multi-level order-flow imbalance (MLOFI), which is a vector quantity that measures the net flow of buy and sell orders at different price levels in a limit order book (LOB). Using a recent, high-quality data set for 6 liquid stocks on Nasdaq, we fit a simple, linear relationship between MLOFI and the contemporaneous change in mid-price. For all 6 stocks that we study, we find that the out-of-sample goodness-of-fit of the relationship improves with each additional price level that we include in the MLOFI vector. Our results underline how order-flow activity deep into the LOB can influence the price-formation process.

q-fin.TR

Quasi-Centralized Limit Order Books

A quasi-centralized limit order book (QCLOB) is a limit order book (LOB) in which financial institutions can only access the trading opportunities offered by counterparties with whom they possess sufficient bilateral credit. We perform an empirical analysis of a recent, high-quality data set from a large electronic trading platform that utilizes QCLOBs to facilitate trade. We find many significant differences between our results and those widely reported for other LOBs. We also uncover a remarkable empirical universality: although the distributions describing order flow and market state vary considerably across days, a simple, linear rescaling causes them to collapse onto a single curve. Motivated by this finding, we propose a semi-parametric model of order flow and market state in a QCLOB on a single trading day. Our model provides similar performance to that of parametric curve-fitting techniques, while being simpler to compute and faster to implement.

q-fin.TR

Queue Imbalance as a One-Tick-Ahead Price Predictor in a Limit Order Book

We investigate whether the bid/ask queue imbalance in a limit order book (LOB) provides significant predictive power for the direction of the next mid-price movement. We consider this question both in the context of a simple binary classifier, which seeks to predict the direction of the next mid-price movement, and a probabilistic classifier, which seeks to predict the probability that the next mid-price movement will be upwards. To implement these classifiers, we fit logistic regressions between the queue imbalance and the direction of the subsequent mid-price movement for each of 10 liquid stocks on Nasdaq. In each case, we find a strongly statistically significant relationship between these variables. Compared to a simple null model, which assumes that the direction of mid-price changes is uncorrelated with the queue imbalance, we find that our logistic regression fits provide a considerable improvement in binary and probabilistic classification for large-tick stocks, and provide a moderate improvement in binary and probabilistic classification for small-tick stocks. We also perform local logistic regression fits on the same data, and find that this semi-parametric approach slightly outperform our logistic regression fits, at the expense of being more computationally intensive to implement.

q-fin.TR

The Long Memory of Order Flow in the Foreign Exchange Spot Market

We study the long memory of order flow for each of three liquid currency pairs on a large electronic trading platform in the foreign exchange (FX) spot market. Due to the extremely high levels of market activity on the platform, and in contrast to existing empirical studies of other markets, our data enables us to perform statistically stable estimation without needing to aggregate data from different trading days. We find strong evidence of long memory, with a Hurst exponent of approximately 0.7, for each of the three currency pairs and on each trading day in our sample. We repeat our calculations using data that spans different trading days, and we find no significant differences in our results. We test and reject the hypothesis that the apparent long memory of order flow is an artifact caused by structural breaks, in favour of the alternative hypothesis of true long memory. We therefore conclude that the long memory of order flow in the FX spot market is a robust empirical property that persists across daily boundaries.

q-fin.TR

Limit Order Books

Limit order books (LOBs) match buyers and sellers in more than half of the world's financial markets. This survey highlights the insights that have emerged from the wealth of empirical and theoretical studies of LOBs. We examine the findings reported by statistical analyses of historical LOB data and discuss how several LOB models provide insight into certain aspects of the mechanism. We also illustrate that many such models poorly resemble real LOBs and that several well-established empirical facts have yet to be reproduced satisfactorily. Finally, we identify several key unresolved questions about LOBs.

q-fin.TR