arXiv subjects

Martin Pawelczyk

Publications and source records attributed to Martin Pawelczyk.

27 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

Decomposing Counterfactual Explanations for Consequential Decision Making

The goal of algorithmic recourse is to reverse unfavorable decisions (e.g., from loan denial to approval) under automated decision making by suggesting actionable feature changes (e.g., reduce the number of credit cards). To generate low-cost recourse the majority of methods work under the assumption that the features are independently manipulable (IMF). To address the feature dependency issue the recourse problem is usually studied through the causal recourse paradigm. However, it is well known that strong assumptions, as encoded in causal models and structural equations, hinder the applicability of these methods in complex domains where causal dependency structures are ambiguous. In this work, we develop \texttt{DEAR} (DisEntangling Algorithmic Recourse), a novel and practical recourse framework that bridges the gap between the IMF and the strong causal assumptions. \texttt{DEAR} generates recourses by disentangling the latent representation of co-varying features from a subset of promising recourse features to capture the main practical recourse desiderata. Our experiments on real-world data corroborate our theoretically motivated recourse model and highlight our framework's ability to provide reliable, low-cost recourse in the presence of feature dependencies.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Deep Neural Networks and Tabular Data: A Survey

Heterogeneous tabular data are the most commonly used form of data and are essential for numerous critical and computationally demanding applications. On homogeneous data sets, deep neural networks have repeatedly shown excellent performance and have therefore been widely adopted. However, their adaptation to tabular data for inference or data generation tasks remains challenging. To facilitate further progress in the field, this work provides an overview of state-of-the-art deep learning methods for tabular data. We categorize these methods into three groups: data transformations, specialized architectures, and regularization models. For each of these groups, our work offers a comprehensive overview of the main approaches. Moreover, we discuss deep learning approaches for generating tabular data, and we also provide an overview over strategies for explaining deep models on tabular data. Thus, our first contribution is to address the main research streams and existing methodologies in the mentioned areas, while highlighting relevant challenges and open research questions. Our second contribution is to provide an empirical comparison of traditional machine learning methods with eleven deep learning approaches across five popular real-world tabular data sets of different sizes and with different learning objectives. Our results, which we have made publicly available as competitive benchmarks, indicate that algorithms based on gradient-boosted tree ensembles still mostly outperform deep learning models on supervised learning tasks, suggesting that the research progress on competitive deep learning models for tabular data is stagnating. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first in-depth overview of deep learning approaches for tabular data; as such, this work can serve as a valuable starting point to guide researchers and practitioners interested in deep learning with tabular data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Rethinking Stability for Attribution-based Explanations

As attribution-based explanation methods are increasingly used to establish model trustworthiness in high-stakes situations, it is critical to ensure that these explanations are stable, e.g., robust to infinitesimal perturbations to an input. However, previous works have shown that state-of-the-art explanation methods generate unstable explanations. Here, we introduce metrics to quantify the stability of an explanation and show that several popular explanation methods are unstable. In particular, we propose new Relative Stability metrics that measure the change in output explanation with respect to change in input, model representation, or output of the underlying predictor. Finally, our experimental evaluation with three real-world datasets demonstrates interesting insights for seven explanation methods and different stability metrics.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Exploring Counterfactual Explanations Through the Lens of Adversarial Examples: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis

As machine learning (ML) models become more widely deployed in high-stakes applications, counterfactual explanations have emerged as key tools for providing actionable model explanations in practice. Despite the growing popularity of counterfactual explanations, a deeper understanding of these explanations is still lacking. In this work, we systematically analyze counterfactual explanations through the lens of adversarial examples. We do so by formalizing the similarities between popular counterfactual explanation and adversarial example generation methods identifying conditions when they are equivalent. We then derive the upper bounds on the distances between the solutions output by counterfactual explanation and adversarial example generation methods, which we validate on several real-world data sets. By establishing these theoretical and empirical similarities between counterfactual explanations and adversarial examples, our work raises fundamental questions about the design and development of existing counterfactual explanation algorithms.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Gaussian Experts Selection using Graphical Models

Local approximations are popular methods to scale Gaussian processes (GPs) to big data. Local approximations reduce time complexity by dividing the original dataset into subsets and training a local expert on each subset. Aggregating the experts' prediction is done assuming either conditional dependence or independence between the experts. Imposing the \emph{conditional independence assumption} (CI) between the experts renders the aggregation of different expert predictions time efficient at the cost of poor uncertainty quantification. On the other hand, modeling dependent experts can provide precise predictions and uncertainty quantification at the expense of impractically high computational costs. By eliminating weak experts via a theory-guided expert selection step, we substantially reduce the computational cost of aggregating dependent experts while ensuring calibrated uncertainty quantification. We leverage techniques from the literature on undirected graphical models, using sparse precision matrices that encode conditional dependencies between experts to select the most important experts. Moreov

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

CARLA: A Python Library to Benchmark Algorithmic Recourse and Counterfactual Explanation Algorithms

Counterfactual explanations provide means for prescriptive model explanations by suggesting actionable feature changes (e.g., increase income) that allow individuals to achieve favorable outcomes in the future (e.g., insurance approval). Choosing an appropriate method is a crucial aspect for meaningful counterfactual explanations. As documented in recent reviews, there exists a quickly growing literature with available methods. Yet, in the absence of widely available opensource implementations, the decision in favor of certain models is primarily based on what is readily available. Going forward - to guarantee meaningful comparisons across explanation methods - we present CARLA (Counterfactual And Recourse LibrAry), a python library for benchmarking counterfactual explanation methods across both different data sets and different machine learning models. In summary, our work provides the following contributions: (i) an extensive benchmark of 11 popular counterfactual explanation methods, (ii) a benchmarking framework for research on future counterfactual explanation methods, and (iii) a standardized set of integrated evaluation measures and data sets for transparent and extensive comparisons of these methods. We have open-sourced CARLA and our experimental results on Github, making them available as competitive baselines. We welcome contributions from other research groups and practitioners.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

On Counterfactual Explanations under Predictive Multiplicity

Counterfactual explanations are usually obtained by identifying the smallest change made to an input to change a prediction made by a fixed model (hereafter called sparse methods). Recent work, however, has revitalized an old insight: there often does not exist one superior solution to a prediction problem with respect to commonly used measures of interest (e.g. error rate). In fact, often multiple different classifiers give almost equal solutions. This phenomenon is known as predictive multiplicity (Breiman, 2001; Marx et al., 2019). In this work, we derive a general upper bound for the costs of counterfactual explanations under predictive multiplicity. Most notably, it depends on a discrepancy notion between two classifiers, which describes how differently they treat negatively predicted individuals. We then compare sparse and data support approaches empirically on real-world data. The results show that data support methods are more robust to multiplicity of different models. At the same time, we show that those methods have provably higher cost of generating counterfactual explanations under one fixed model. In summary, our theoretical and empiricaln results challenge the commonly held view that counterfactual recommendations should be sparse in general.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Leveraging Model Inherent Variable Importance for Stable Online Feature Selection

Feature selection can be a crucial factor in obtaining robust and accurate predictions. Online feature selection models, however, operate under considerable restrictions; they need to efficiently extract salient input features based on a bounded set of observations, while enabling robust and accurate predictions. In this work, we introduce FIRES, a novel framework for online feature selection. The proposed feature weighting mechanism leverages the importance information inherent in the parameters of a predictive model. By treating model parameters as random variables, we can penalize features with high uncertainty and thus generate more stable feature sets. Our framework is generic in that it leaves the choice of the underlying model to the user. Strikingly, experiments suggest that the model complexity has only a minor effect on the discriminative power and stability of the selected feature sets. In fact, using a simple linear model, FIRES obtains feature sets that compete with state-of-the-art methods, while dramatically reducing computation time. In addition, experiments show that the proposed framework is clearly superior in terms of feature selection stability.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Learning Model-Agnostic Counterfactual Explanations for Tabular Data

Counterfactual explanations can be obtained by identifying the smallest change made to a feature vector to qualitatively influence a prediction; for example, from 'loan rejected' to 'awarded' or from 'high risk of cardiovascular disease' to 'low risk'. Previous approaches often emphasized that counterfactuals should be easily interpretable to humans, motivating sparse solutions with few changes to the feature vectors. However, these approaches would not ensure that the produced counterfactuals be proximate (i.e., not local outliers) and connected to regions with substantial data density (i.e., close to correctly classified observations), two requirements known as counterfactual faithfulness. These requirements are fundamental when making suggestions to individuals that are indeed attainable. Our contribution is twofold. On one hand, we suggest to complement the catalogue of counterfactual quality measures [1] using a criterion to quantify the degree of difficulty for a certain counterfactual suggestion. On the other hand, drawing ideas from the manifold learning literature, we develop a framework that generates attainable counterfactuals. We suggest the counterfactual conditional heterogeneous variational autoencoder (C-CHVAE) to identify attainable counterfactuals that lie within regions of high data density.

cs.LG↗