arXiv subjects

Martin Popp

Publications and source records attributed to Martin Popp.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

Scarce Workers, High Wages?

Labor market tightness tremendously increased in Germany between 2012 and 2022. We analyze the effect of tightness on wages by combining social security data with unusually rich information on vacancies and job seekers. Instrumental variable regressions reveal positive elasticities between 0.004 and 0.011, implying that higher tightness explains between 7 and 19 percent of the real wage increase. We report greater elasticities for new hires, high-skilled workers, the Eastern German labor market, and the service sector. In particular, tightness raised wages at the bottom of the wage distribution, contributing to the decline in wage inequality over the last decade.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2022

Labor Demand on a Tight Leash

We develop a labor demand model that encompasses pre-match hiring cost arising from tight labor markets. Through the lens of the model, we study the effect of labor market tightness on firms' labor demand by applying novel shift-share instruments to the universe of German firms. In line with theory, we find that a doubling in tightness reduces firms' employment by 5 percent. Taking into account the resulting search externalities, the wage elasticity of firms' labor demand reduces from -0.7 to -0.5 through reallocation effects. In light of our results, pre-match hiring cost amount to 40 percent of annual wage payments.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2021

Minimum Wages in Concentrated Labor Markets

Economists increasingly refer to monopsony power to reconcile the absence of negative employment effects of minimum wages with theory. However, systematic evidence for the monopsony argument is scarce. In this paper, I perform a comprehensive test of this argument by using labor market concentration as a proxy for monopsony power. Labor market concentration turns out substantial in Germany. Absent wage floors, higher concentration reduces wages and employment, reflecting monopsonistic conduct of firms. Sectoral minimum wages lead to negative employment effects in slightly concentrated or more competitive labor markets. This effect weakens with increasing concentration and, ultimately, becomes positive in highly concentrated or monopsonistic markets. Overall, the results lend empirical support to the monopsony argument, implying that conventional minimum wage effects on employment conceal heterogeneity across market forms.

econ.GN↗