Martin S. J. Rogers | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

Warping Earth Observations for better ice labeling in the Marginal Marginal Ice Zone

Multimodal satellite imagery provides complementary information for Earth Observation, but accurately combining heterogeneous sensors remains challenging in dynamic environments. Fast-changing regions, such as the Antarctic marginal ice zone, cannot fully exploit multimodal information from different satellite sensors because surface features move between image acquisitions. This spatial and temporal mismatch challenges effective perceptual grounding, violating the assumption of pixel-level correspondence that underpins most multimodal reasoning and downstream classification pipelines. Antarctic sea ice provides a challenging benchmark due to the rapid, heterogeneous drift of individual ice floes and the differing responses of sea ice to radar, visible and thermal sensing modalities. Accurate, dense supervision of sea ice remains scarce because generating pixel-wise labels requires time-consuming expert interpretation of noisy data, leading to historical reliance on coarse-resolution maritime ice charts for model training. This paper presents a novel architecture based on mutual information warping to align multi-satellite (Sentinel-1 and MODIS platforms) multimodal (visible, thermal, radar) satellite scenes. To demonstrate the approach, we introduce a sparse expert-labeled dataset of 2,088 pixel-wise annotations (7,046 expert point classifications) located at the ice-water margin interface across 43 scenes. Our results demonstrate that spatially grounding and aligning modalities prior to segmentation improves classification accuracy, and enables accurate, dense sea ice segmentation from sparse point-wise supervision.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

CORDEX-ML-Bench: A Benchmark for Data-Driven Regional Climate Downscaling -Experiment Design and Overview

Machine learning (ML) has emerged as a cost-effective approach to complement dynamical downscaling for producing high-resolution regional climate projections. However, the absence of standardised training and evaluation protocols, applied consistently across multiple domains, continues to hinder meaningful model intercomparison. We introduce CORDEX-ML-Bench, a benchmark aligned with CORDEX, which constitutes the first phase of a community initiative to advance data-driven downscaling toward operational readiness, and complement future dynamical downscaling efforts under CMIP7. The framework targets downscaled daily maximum temperature and precipitation to ~10 km resolution (20x increase) across three pilot regions; European Alps, New Zealand, and Southern Africa. Using a perfect-model experimental design, we evaluate 40 ML configurations developed independently, spanning traditional ML, convolutional U-Nets, vision transformers, graph neural networks, and generative models based on diffusion, flow matching, and generative adversarial networks. Models are trained under two experimental periods, an empirical-statistical downscaling pseudo-reality (historical period only) and Emulator (historical and future periods) -and are evaluated against a core set of metrics developed specifically for assessing downscaling skill. Generative models consistently outperform deterministic approaches for precipitation, better capturing fine-scale variability and extremes. For temperature, the generative advantage narrows and deterministic architectures remain competitive. Models trained solely on the historical period systematically underestimate future climate-change signals while those additionally trained on a future period perform better. These findings raise concerns about historically trained models widely used in an operational setting, underscoring the need for rigorous extrapolation testing.

physics.ao-ph↗