arXiv subjects

Martin Výboh

Publications and source records attributed to Martin Výboh.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Capturing Multivariate Dependencies of EV Charging Events: From Parametric Copulas to Neural Density Estimation

Accurate event-based modeling of electric vehicle (EV) charging is essential for grid reliability and smart-charging design. While traditional statistical methods capture marginal distributions, they often fail to model the complex, non-linear dependencies between charging variables, specifically arrival times, durations, and energy demand. This paper addresses this gap by introducing the first application of Vine copulas and Copula Density Neural Estimation framework (CODINE) to the EV domain. We evaluate these high-capacity dependence models across three diverse real-world datasets. Our results demonstrate that by explicitly focusing on modeling the joint dependence structure, Vine copulas and CODINE outperform established parametric families and remain highly competitive against state-of-the-art benchmarks like conditional Gaussian Mixture Model Networks. We show that these methods offer superior preservation of tail behaviors and correlation structures, providing a robust framework for synthetic charging event generation in varied infrastructure contexts.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Latent Space Representation of Electricity Market Curves: Maintaining Structural Integrity

Efficiently representing supply and demand curves is vital for energy market analysis and downstream modelling; however, dimensionality reduction often produces reconstructions that violate fundamental economic principles such as monotonicity. This paper evaluates the performance of PCA, Kernel PCA, UMAP, and AutoEncoder across 2d and 3d latent spaces. During preprocessing, we transform the original data to achieve a unified structure, mitigate outlier effects, and focus on critical curve segments. To ensure theoretical validity, we integrate Isotonic Regression as an optional post-processing step to enforce monotonic constraints on reconstructed outputs. Results from a three-year hourly MIBEL dataset demonstrate that the non-linear technique UMAP consistently outperforms other methods, securing the top rank across multiple error metrics. Furthermore, Isotonic Regression serves as a crucial corrective layer, significantly reducing error and restoring physical validity for several methods. We argue that UMAP`s local structure preservation, combined with intelligent post-processing, provides a robust foundation for downstream tasks such as forecasting, classification, and clustering.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Fully Differentiable Lagrangian Convolutional Neural Network for Physics-Informed Precipitation Nowcasting

This paper presents a convolutional neural network model for precipitation nowcasting that combines data-driven learning with physics-informed domain knowledge. We propose LUPIN, a Lagrangian Double U-Net for Physics-Informed Nowcasting, that draws from existing extrapolation-based nowcasting methods. It consists of a U-Net that dynamically produces mesoscale advection motion fields, a differentiable semi-Lagrangian extrapolation operator, and an advection-free U-Net capturing the growth and decay of precipitation over time. Using our approach, we successfully implement the Lagrangian convolutional neural network for precipitation nowcasting in a fully differentiable and GPU-accelerated manner. This allows for end-to-end training and inference, including the data-driven Lagrangian coordinate system transformation of the data at runtime. We evaluate the model and compare it with other related AI-based models both quantitatively and qualitatively in an extreme event case study. Based on our evaluation, LUPIN matches and even exceeds the performance of the chosen benchmarks, opening the door for other Lagrangian machine learning models.

cs.LG↗