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Mary Monroe

Publications and source records attributed to Mary Monroe.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

Equilibria in Large Position-Optimization Games

We propose a general class of symmetric games called position-optimization games. Given a probability distribution $Q$ over a set of targets $\mathcal{Y}$, the $n$ players each choose a position in a space $\mathcal{X}$. A player's utility is the $Q$-mass of targets they are closest to under some proximity measure, with ties broken evenly. Our model captures Hotelling games and forecasting competitions, among other applications. We show that for sufficiently large $n$, both pure and symmetric mixed Nash equilibria exist, and moreover are extreme: all players play on a finite set of pseudo-targets $\mathcal{X}^* \subseteq \mathcal{X}$. We further show that both pure and symmetric mixed equilibria converge to the distribution $P$ on $\mathcal{X}^*$ induced by $Q$, and bound the convergence rate in $n$. The generality of our model allows us to extend and strengthen previous work in Hotelling games, and prove entirely new results in forecasting competitions and other applications.

cs.GT

Robust forecast aggregation via additional queries

We study the problem of robust forecast aggregation: combining expert forecasts with provable accuracy guarantees compared to the best possible aggregation of the underlying information. Prior work shows strong impossibility results, e.g. that even under natural assumptions, no aggregation of the experts' individual forecasts can outperform simply following a random expert (Neyman and Roughgarden, 2022). In this paper, we introduce a more general framework that allows the principal to elicit richer information from experts through structured queries. Our framework ensures that experts will truthfully report their underlying beliefs, and also enables us to define notions of complexity over the difficulty of asking these queries. Under a general model of independent but overlapping expert signals, we show that optimal aggregation is achievable in the worst case with each complexity measure bounded above by the number of agents $n$. We further establish tight tradeoffs between accuracy and query complexity: aggregation error decreases linearly with the number of queries, and vanishes when the "order of reasoning" and number of agents relevant to a query is $\omega(\sqrt{n})$. These results demonstrate that modest extensions to the space of expert queries dramatically strengthen the power of robust forecast aggregation. We therefore expect that our new query framework will open up a fruitful line of research in this area.

cs.GT

Peer Prediction with More Signals than Reports

Peer prediction mechanisms are typically proposed and analyzed under the assumption that the report and signal spaces are identical. In practice, however, agents often observe richer information which they then map to a coarser report space. Motivated by this discrepancy between theory and practice, we initiate the study of peer prediction mechanisms with signal spaces that are richer than the report space. We begin by formalizing a model with real-valued signals and binary reports. In this setting, it is natural to study symmetric threshold strategies, where agents map their signals to binary reports according to a single real-valued threshold. For several well-known binary-report peer prediction mechanisms, we show that most equilibria under the original assumption of binary signals are no longer equilibria in our model. Furthermore, dynamic analysis proves that some of the remaining thresholds are unstable. These results extend beyond real-valued signals and binary reports to settings where the signal space is finer-grained than the report space. While the results above suggest important limitations for the deployment of existing peer prediction mechanisms in practice, we also use them to develop a new, more robust mechanism. This mechanism generates a larger number of stable threshold equilibria under our model, thus allowing the designer more flexibility in choosing how agents map their signals to reports.

cs.GT

Hedging and Approximate Truthfulness in Traditional Forecasting Competitions

In forecasting competitions, the traditional mechanism scores the predictions of each contestant against the outcome of each event, and the contestant with the highest total score wins. While it is well-known that this traditional mechanism can suffer from incentive issues, it is folklore that contestants will still be roughly truthful as the number of events grows. Yet thus far the literature lacks a formal analysis of this traditional mechanism. This paper gives the first such analysis. We first demonstrate that the ''long-run truthfulness'' folklore is false: even for arbitrary numbers of events, the best forecaster can have an incentive to hedge, reporting more moderate beliefs to increase their win probability. On the positive side, however, we show that two contestants will be approximately truthful when they have sufficient uncertainty over the relative quality of their opponent and the outcomes of the events, a case which may arise in practice.

cs.LG

Public Projects with Preferences and Predictions

When making a decision as a group, there are two primary paradigms: aggregating preferences (e.g. voting, mechanism design) and aggregating information (e.g. discussion, consulting, forecasting). Almost all formally-studied group decisionmaking mechanisms fall under one paradigm or the other, but not both. We consider a public projects problem with the objective of maximizing utilitarian social welfare. Decisionmakers have both preferences, modeled as utility functions over the alternatives; and information, modeled as Bayesian signals relevant to the alternatives' external welfare impact. Aligning incentives is highly challenging because, on the one hand, agents can provide bad information in order to manipulate the mechanism into satisfying their preferences; and on the other hand, they can misreport their preferences to favor selection of an alternative for which their information rewards are high. We propose a two-stage mechanism for this problem. The forecasting stage aggregates information using either a wagering mechanism or a prediction market (the mechanism is modular and compatible with both). The voting stage aggregates preferences, together with the forecasts from the previous stage, and selects an alternative by leveraging the recently-studied Quadratic Transfers Mechanism. We show that, when carefully combined, the entire two-stage mechanism is robust to manipulation of all forms, and under weak assumptions, satisfies Price of Anarchy guarantees. In the case of two alternatives, the Price of Anarchy tends to 1 as natural measures of the "size" of the population grow large. In most cases, the mechanisms achieve a balanced budget as well. We also give the first nonasymptotic Price of Anarchy guarantee for the Quadratic Transfers Mechanism, a result of independent interest.

cs.GT

A PTAS for the Min-Max Euclidean Multiple TSP

We present a polynomial-time approximation scheme (PTAS) for the min-max multiple TSP problem in Euclidean space, where multiple traveling salesmen are tasked with visiting a set of $n$ points and the objective is to minimize the maximum tour length. For an arbitrary $\varepsilon > 0$, our PTAS achieves a $(1 + \varepsilon)$-approximation in time $O \big(n ((1/\varepsilon) \log (n/\varepsilon))^{O(1/\varepsilon)} \big)$. Our approach extends Sanjeev Arora's dynamic-programming (DP) PTAS for the Euclidean TSP (https://doi.org/10.1145/290179.290180). Our algorithm introduces a rounding process to balance the allocation of path lengths among the multiple salesman. We analyze the accumulation of error in the DP to prove that the solution is a $(1 + \varepsilon)$-approximation.

cs.DS