arXiv subjects

Marzieh Amiri Shahbazi

Publications and source records attributed to Marzieh Amiri Shahbazi.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Geometry-Aware Uncertainty Quantification via Conformal Prediction on Manifolds

Conformal prediction gives finite-sample coverage guarantees for regression, but most standard constructions are designed for Euclidean output spaces. When the response lies on a Riemannian manifold, Euclidean residuals and coordinate-based regions can ignore the geometry that defines meaningful error. We propose adaptive geodesic conformal prediction, a simple framework that builds nonconformity scores from geodesic distances and normalizes them with a cross-validated estimate of local prediction difficulty. On the sphere, this produces geodesic caps whose area is independent of position, while their radii still adapt to heteroscedastic noise. In both a synthetic sphere experiment and an IGRF-14 geomagnetic field forecasting task, the adaptive method preserves valid marginal coverage, reduces variation in conditional coverage, and improves worst-case coverage relative to non-adaptive and coordinate-based baselines.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Adaptive Conformal Prediction via Bayesian Uncertainty Weighting for Hierarchical Healthcare Data

Clinical decision-making demands uncertainty quantification that provides both distribution-free coverage guarantees and risk-adaptive precision, requirements that existing methods fail to jointly satisfy. We present a hybrid Bayesian-conformal framework that addresses this fundamental limitation in healthcare predictions. Our approach integrates Bayesian hierarchical random forests with group-aware conformal calibration, using posterior uncertainties to weight conformity scores while maintaining rigorous coverage validity. Evaluated on 61,538 admissions across 3,793 U.S. hospitals and 4 regions, our method achieves target coverage (94.3% vs 95% target) with adaptive precision: 21% narrower intervals for low-uncertainty cases while appropriately widening for high-risk predictions. Critically, we demonstrate that well-calibrated Bayesian uncertainties alone severely under-cover (14.1%), highlighting the necessity of our hybrid approach. This framework enables risk-stratified clinical protocols, efficient resource planning for high-confidence predictions, and conservative allocation with enhanced oversight for uncertain cases, providing uncertainty-aware decision support across diverse healthcare settings.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Multi-Scale Conformal Prediction: A Theoretical Framework with Coverage Guarantees

We propose a multi-scale extension of conformal prediction, an approach that constructs prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees under minimal statistical assumptions. Classic conformal prediction relies on a single notion of conformity, overlooking the multi-level structures that arise in applications such as image analysis, hierarchical data exploration, and multi-resolution time series modeling. In contrast, the proposed framework defines a distinct conformity function at each relevant scale or resolution, producing multiple conformal predictors whose prediction sets are then intersected to form the final multi-scale output. We establish theoretical results confirming that the multi-scale prediction set retains the marginal coverage guarantees of the original conformal framework and can, in fact, yield smaller or more precise sets in practice. By distributing the total miscoverage probability across scales in proportion to their informative power, the method further refines the set sizes. We also show that dependence between scales can lead to conservative coverage, ensuring that the actual coverage exceeds the nominal level. Numerical experiments in a synthetic classification setting demonstrate that multi-scale conformal prediction achieves or surpasses the nominal coverage level while generating smaller prediction sets compared to single-scale conformal methods.

math.ST↗