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Masaaki Fukasawa

Publications and source records attributed to Masaaki Fukasawa.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Short-term barrier option price expansion

We derive a short-maturity expansion for up-and-out put barrier option prices under continuous stochastic volatility when the strike and the barrier approach the spot at the diffusive scale. Assuming joint weak convergence of the normalized terminal return, the relative volatility fluctuation, and the running maximum, together with uniform integrability, we show that the leading term is the time-inhomogeneous Black-Scholes barrier price fitted to the forward variance curve. The first model-dependent correction is of order $θ^{H+1/2}$, where $θ^H$, $H \in (0,1/2]$, is the order of the relative volatility fluctuation, and is represented explicitly through killed Brownian transition densities. For regular volatility models, where $H= 1/2$, the coefficient is determined by the short-maturity at-the-money implied-volatility skew. For rough volatility models with $H < 1/2$, the coefficient reduces to a one-dimensional integral. Numerical experiments show that the correction materially improves the Black-Scholes approximation.

q-fin.PR↗

Basket implied volatility skew and stickiness

We study the short-maturity implied volatility and the skew stickiness ratio for baskets of assets with continuous, possibly rough, stochastic volatility. The fluctuation of the instantaneous basket variance has two sources: fluctuations of the constituent variances and fluctuations of the basket weights. We derive a near-the-money implied volatility expansion that separates these contributions. We then specialize the result to volatility models given by general functions of Gaussian Volterra factors and obtain an explicit basket skew coefficient in terms of the short-time kernel asymptotics, the factor sensitivities, and the return-factor correlations. A density expansion justifies differentiation of the near-the-money expansion at the money. Finally, using a Malliavin representation of the dynamics of total implied variance, we prove that the short-maturity skew stickiness ratio converges to the universal limit $H + 3/2$ for Gaussian factor basket models with $H \in (0, 1/2]$.

q-fin.PR↗

Yet another asymptotic formula for implied volatility

We derive a first-order representation of Black-Scholes implied variance in a continuous local martingale model. Total implied variance is the conditional expectation of the quadratic variation of the log price given its terminal value, up to a smaller-order term, for bounded standardized log-strikes. The framework incorporates small volatility-of-volatility, fast mean-reverting, and short-maturity asymptotics.

q-fin.PR↗

Short-maturity skew stickiness ratio under local volatility

We prove that the skew stickiness ratio converges to two at short maturity under local volatility models. This appears to be the first rigorous proof of this limit for a general time-dependent local volatility function. As a by-product, we strengthen the one-half rule of the implied volatility skew by removing uniform ellipticity and global bounds on spatial derivatives of order at least two. The proof uses a first-order Watanabe expansion.

math.PR↗

Error Distribution of the Local Linearization Method for Stochastic Differential Equations with Additive Brownian Noise

We prove a functional stable limit theorem for the discretization error process of a local linearization scheme for stochastic differential equations with additive Brownian noise. The scheme includes the conditional mean of the second-order term involving the Brownian increment in the Taylor expansion of the drift. The leading error is then formed by centered quadratic terms in the Brownian increments, and the sharp normalization is \(n\sqrt n\). Under \(C^3\)-regularity and a Lyapunov-type condition on the drift, the scaled error process converges stably in \(C([0,1],\mathbb R^d)\) to the solution of the limiting linear stochastic differential equation. The martingale part of the limit is driven by a Brownian motion independent of the original \(σ\)-field, and its coefficient is determined by the Hessian of the drift and the covariance matrix of the additive noise.

math.PR↗

On the Skew Stickiness Ratio

The skew stickiness ratio is a statistic that captures the joint dynamics of an asset price and its volatility. We derive a representation formula for this quantity using the Itô-Wentzell and Clark-Ocone formulae, and we apply it to analyze its asymptotics under Bergomi-type stochastic volatility models.

q-fin.MF↗

A Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method for Bergomi-Type Volatility Models

We propose a quasi maximum likelihood estimation method for Bergomi-type stochastic volatility models with parametrized kernels, focusing on the estimation of the kernel parameters from high-frequency time-series observations of option prices. We first show that the cumulative forward variance, which can be reconstructed from option prices, solves an infinite-dimensional stochastic differential equation driven by a one-dimensional Brownian motion under the Bergomi-type model. To overcome this degeneracy, we introduce a nondegenerate proxy likelihood based on the Euler-Maruyama approximation and define an estimator through the associated estimating function. We establish consistency and asymptotic mixed normality of the proposed estimator under a regular class of kernels. Simulation studies and an empirical application to SPXW option data illustrate the finite-sample performance of the method and the practical relevance of the approach.

math.ST↗

Robust Volatility Index Calculation with OTM Option-implied Probability

In financial markets, accurately measuring the risk of future fluctuations in asset prices is of paramount importance. Studies such as Carr and Madan have shown that the expected value of the quadratic variation of log prices can be expressed as an integral of European option prices over a continuum of strikes. This has led to the widespread estimation of model-free volatility (implied variance). However, this theoretical calculation assumes that options are continuously traded across all strike prices, which creates a fundamental gap with real-world market environments where options are only traded at discrete strikes. How to appropriately address this gap and robustly estimate volatility is a crucial issue for both practitioners and academics, and is the primary objective of this paper. Focusing on the fact that volatility indices are primarily calculated from the prices of out-of-the-money (OTM) options, this paper proposes a novel method for constructing a continuous European option pricing function that is consistent with the bid-ask spreads of observed OTM options and strictly satisfies arbitrage-free conditions (such as monotonicity and convexity). Although previous studies have attempted to construct arbitrage-free option pricing functions from bid-ask spreads, the construction method proposed in this paper requires fewer market parameters than existing methods. This makes it possible to robustly calculate volatility indices while maintaining theoretical consistency, even in markets with extremely low liquidity.

q-fin.MF↗

Martingale expansion for stochastic volatility

The martingale expansion provides a refined approximation to the marginal distributions of martingales beyond the normal approximation implied by the martingale central limit theorem. We develop a martingale expansion framework specifically suited to continuous stochastic volatility models. Our approach accommodates both small volatility-of-volatility and fast mean-reversion models, yielding first-order perturbation expansions under essentially minimal conditions.

math.PR↗

Rough SABR Forward Market Model

This paper advances interest rate modeling in the post-LIBOR era by introducing rough stochastic volatility into the Forward Market Model (FMM). We establish a rigorous asymptotic expansion of swaption implied volatility, connecting the FMM to a rough Bergomi-type framework for forward swap rates. This contribution bridges the gap between Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM)-consistent forward term rate models and forward swap rate models with stochastic volatility, offering a parsimonious yet precise framework for modeling swaption volatility surfaces. Furthermore, we justify and generalize the widely used "freezing" approximation within a rigorous mathematical framework. The proposed approach enhances the representation of persistent skew and term structure, addressing key challenges in modern fixed income markets.

q-fin.MF↗

A limit theorem for generalized tempered stable processes and their quadratic variations with stable index tending to two

We study the limit of the joint distribution of a multidimensional Generalized Tempered Stable (GTS) process and its quadratic covariation process when the stable index tends to two. Under a proper scaling, the GTS processes converges to a Brownian motion that is a stable process with stable index two. We renormalize their quadratic covariation processes so that they have a nondegenerate limit distribution. We show that the limit is a stable process with stable index one and is independent of the limit Brownian motion of the GTS processes. In addition, we apply this convergence result to finance. By using the scaled GTS process defined above, we construct a pure jump asset price model approaching to the Black-Scholes model. To evaluate how $α$-stable jumps affect the implied volatility, we obtain the asymptotic expansion of the at-the-money implied volatility skew when the model approaches to the Black-Scholes model.

math.PR↗

Limit distribution of errors in discretization of stochastic Volterra equations with multidimensional kernel

This paper investigates the limit distribution of discretization errors in stochastic Volterra equations (SVEs) with general multidimensional kernel structures. While prior studies, such as Fukasawa and Ugai (2023), were focused on one-dimensional fractional kernels, this research generalizes to broader classes, accommodating diagonal matrix kernels that include forms beyond fractional type. The main result demonstrates the stable convergence in law for the rescaled discretization error process, and the limit process is characterized under relaxed assumptions.

math.PR↗

Liquidity provision of utility indifference type in decentralized exchanges

We present a mathematical formulation of liquidity provision in decentralized exchanges. We focus on constant function market makers of utility indifference type, which include constant product market makers with concentrated liquidity as a special case. First, we examine no-arbitrage conditions for a liquidity pool and compute an optimal arbitrage strategy when there is an external liquid market. Second, we show that liquidity provision suffers from impermanent loss unless a transaction fee is levied under the general framework with concentrated liquidity. Third, we establish the well-definedness of arbitrage-free reserve processes of a liquidity pool in continuous-time and show that there is no loss-versus-rebalancing under a nonzero fee if the external market price is continuous. We then argue that liquidity provision by multiple liquidity providers can be understood as liquidity provision by a representative liquidity provider, meaning that the analysis boils down to that for a single liquidity provider. Last, but not least, we give an answer to the fundamental question in which sense the very construction of constant function market makers with concentrated liquidity in the popular platform Uniswap v3 is optimal.

q-fin.TR↗

A partial rough path space for rough volatility

We develop a variant of rough path theory tailor-made for analyzing a class of financial asset price models known as rough volatility models. As an application, we prove a pathwise large deviation principle (LDP) for a certain class of rough volatility models, which in turn describes the limiting behavior of implied volatility for short maturity under those models. First, we introduce a partial rough path space and an integration map on it and then investigate several fundamental properties including local Lipschitz continuity of the integration map from the partial rough path space to a rough path space. Second, we construct a rough path lift of a rough volatility model. Finally, we prove an LDP on the partial rough path space, and the LDP for rough volatility then follows by the continuity of the solution map of rough differential equations.

math.PR↗

Backward stochastic difference equations on lattices with application to market equilibrium analysis

We study backward stochastic difference equations (BSΔE) driven by a d-dimensional stochastic process on a lattice whose increments have only d + 1 possible values that generates the lattice. Regarding the driving process as a d dimensional asset price process, we give applications to an optimal investment problem and a market equilibrium analysis, where utility functionals are defined through BSΔE.

math.PR↗

When to efficiently rebalance a portfolio

A constant weight asset allocation is a popular investment strategy and is optimal under a suitable continuous model. We study the tracking error for the target continuous rebalancing strategy by a feasible discrete-in-time rebalancing under a general multi-dimensional Brownian semimartingale model of asset prices. In a high-frequency asymptotic framework, we derive an asymptotically efficient sequence of simple predictable strategies.

q-fin.MF↗

Model-free Hedging of Impermanent Loss in Geometric Mean Market Makers

We consider Geometric Mean Market Makers -- a special type of Decentralized Exchange -- with two types of users: liquidity takers and arbitrageurs. Liquidity takers trade at prices that can create arbitrage opportunities, while arbitrageurs align the exchange's price with the external market price. We show that in Geometric Mean Market Makers charging proportional transaction fees, Impermanent Loss can be super-hedged by a model-free rebalancing strategy. Moreover, we demonstrate that in such a DEX, the exchange rate is of finite variation, so that loss-versus-rebalancing (the shortfall of providing liquidity versus the corresponding constant-weights portfolio) vanishes.

q-fin.MF↗