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Masato Shimokawa

Publications and source records attributed to Masato Shimokawa.

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A Unified Graphical Criterion for Characterizing the Causal Interpretation of Partial Regression Coefficients in Linear Structural Equation Models

This paper provides a graph-based characterization of partial regression coefficients in linear structural equation models. First, we derive a generalized graphical criterion that unifies the d-separation, single-door, and back-door criteria. This criterion provides a generically necessary and sufficient condition under which a partial regression coefficient coincides with a linear causal effect that is not mediated by other explanatory variables. Second, we clarify the mechanism underlying post-treatment bias and provide a quantitative characterization of this bias. This characterization offers a unified framework for analyzing graph structures that induce post-treatment bias, which have previously been studied on a case-by-case basis. These results are derived from the algebraic properties of acyclic directed mixed graphs and do not rely on any specific probability distribution. Consequently, they apply to a broad class of linear structural equation models.

math.ST

Identification and estimation of structural vector autoregressive models via LU decomposition

Structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models are widely used to analyze the simultaneous relationships between multiple time-dependent data. Various statistical inference methods have been studied to overcome the identification problems of SVAR models. However, most of these methods impose strong assumptions for innovation processes such as the uncorrelation of components. In this study, we relax the assumptions for innovation processes and propose an identification method for SVAR models under the zero-restrictions on the coefficient matrices, which correspond to sufficient conditions for LU decomposition of the coefficient matrices of the reduced form of the SVAR models. Moreover, we establish asymptotically normal estimators for the coefficient matrices and impulse responses, which enable us to construct test statistics for the simultaneous relationships of time-dependent data. The finite-sample performance of the proposed method is elucidated by numerical simulations. We also present an example of an empirical study that analyzes the impact of policy rates on unemployment and prices.

econ.EM