arXiv subjects

Massimiliano de Leoni

Publications and source records attributed to Massimiliano de Leoni.

16 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Exploring LLM Features in Predictive Process Monitoring for Small-Scale Event-Logs

Predictive Process Monitoring is a branch of process mining that aims to predict the outcome of an ongoing process. Recently, it leveraged machine-and-deep learning architectures. In this paper, we extend our prior LLM-based Predictive Process Monitoring framework, which was initially focused on total time prediction via prompting. The extension consists of comprehensively evaluating its generality, semantic leverage, and reasoning mechanisms, also across multiple Key Performance Indicators. Empirical evaluations conducted on three distinct event logs and across the Key Performance Indicators of Total Time and Activity Occurrence prediction indicate that, in data-scarce settings with only 100 traces, the LLM surpasses the benchmark methods. Furthermore, the experiments also show that the LLM exploits both its embodied prior knowledge and the internal correlations among training traces. Finally, we examine the reasoning strategies employed by the model, demonstrating that the LLM does not merely replicate existing predictive methods but performs higher-order reasoning to generate the predictions.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

An Experimental Comparison of Alternative Techniques for Event-Log Augmentation

Process mining analyzes and improves processes by examining transactional data stored in event logs, which record sequences of events with timestamps. However, the effectiveness of process mining, especially when combined with machine or deep learning, depends on having large event logs. Event log augmentation addresses this limitation by generating additional traces that simulate realistic process executions while considering various perspectives like time, control-flow, workflow, resources, and domain-specific attributes. Although prior research has explored event-log augmentation techniques, there has been no comprehensive comparison of their effectiveness. This paper reports on an evaluation of seven state-of-the-art augmentation techniques across eight event logs. The results are also compared with those obtained by a baseline technique based on a stochastic transition system. The comparison has been carried on analyzing four different aspects: similarity, preservation of predictive information, information loss/enhancement, and computational times required. Results show that, considering the different criteria, a technique based on a stochastic transition system combined with resource queue modeling would provide higher quality synthetic event logs. Event-log augmentation techniques are also compared with traditional data-augmentation techniques, showing that the former provide significant benefits, whereas the latter fail to consider process constraints.

cs.DB↗

arXiv2025

Accurate and Noise-Tolerant Extraction of Routine Logs in Robotic Process Automation (Extended Version)

Robotic Process Mining focuses on the identification of the routine types performed by human resources through a User Interface. The ultimate goal is to discover routine-type models to enable robotic process automation. The discovery of routine-type models requires the provision of a routine log. Unfortunately, the vast majority of existing works do not directly focus on enabling the model discovery, limiting themselves to extracting the set of actions that are part of the routines. They were also not evaluated in scenarios characterized by inconsistent routine execution, hereafter referred to as noise, which reflects natural variability and occasional errors in human performance. This paper presents a clustering-based technique that aims to extract routine logs. Experiments were conducted on nine UI logs from the literature with different levels of injected noise. Our technique was compared with existing techniques, most of which are not meant to discover routine logs but were adapted for the purpose. The results were evaluated through standard state-of-the-art metrics, showing that we can extract more accurate routine logs than what the state of the art could, especially in the presence of noise.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2025

Online Discovery of Simulation Models for Evolving Business Processes (Extended Version)

Business Process Simulation (BPS) refers to techniques designed to replicate the dynamic behavior of a business process. Many approaches have been proposed to automatically discover simulation models from historical event logs, reducing the cost and time to manually design them. However, in dynamic business environments, organizations continuously refine their processes to enhance efficiency, reduce costs, and improve customer satisfaction. Existing techniques to process simulation discovery lack adaptability to real-time operational changes. In this paper, we propose a streaming process simulation discovery technique that integrates Incremental Process Discovery with Online Machine Learning methods. This technique prioritizes recent data while preserving historical information, ensuring adaptation to evolving process dynamics. Experiments conducted on four different event logs demonstrate the importance in simulation of giving more weight to recent data while retaining historical knowledge. Our technique not only produces more stable simulations but also exhibits robustness in handling concept drift, as highlighted in one of the use cases.

cs.SE↗

arXiv2024

Achieving Fairness in Predictive Process Analytics via Adversarial Learning (Extended Version)

Predictive business process analytics has become important for organizations, offering real-time operational support for their processes. However, these algorithms often perform unfair predictions because they are based on biased variables (e.g., gender or nationality), namely variables embodying discrimination. This paper addresses the challenge of integrating a debiasing phase into predictive business process analytics to ensure that predictions are not influenced by biased variables. Our framework leverages on adversial debiasing is evaluated on four case studies, showing a significant reduction in the contribution of biased variables to the predicted value. The proposed technique is also compared with the state of the art in fairness in process mining, illustrating that our framework allows for a more enhanced level of fairness, while retaining a better prediction quality.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2022

An Explainable Decision Support System for Predictive Process Analytics

Predictive Process Analytics is becoming an essential aid for organizations, providing online operational support of their processes. However, process stakeholders need to be provided with an explanation of the reasons why a given process execution is predicted to behave in a certain way. Otherwise, they will be unlikely to trust the predictive monitoring technology and, hence, adopt it. This paper proposes a predictive analytics framework that is also equipped with explanation capabilities based on the game theory of Shapley Values. The framework has been implemented in the IBM Process Mining suite and commercialized for business users. The framework has been tested on real-life event data to assess the quality of the predictions and the corresponding evaluations. In particular, a user evaluation has been performed in order to understand if the explanations provided by the system were intelligible to process stakeholders.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Object-centric Process Predictive Analytics

Object-centric processes (a.k.a. Artifact-centric processes) are implementations of a paradigm where an instance of one process is not executed in isolation but interacts with other instances of the same or other processes. Interactions take place through bridging events where instances exchange data. Object-centric processes are recently gaining popularity in academia and industry, because their nature is observed in many application scenarios. This poses significant challenges in predictive analytics due to the complex intricacy of the process instances that relate to each other via many-to-many associations. Existing research is unable to directly exploit the benefits of these interactions, thus limiting the prediction quality. This paper proposes an approach to incorporate the information about the object interactions into the predictive models. The approach is assessed on real-life object-centric process event data, using different KPIs. The results are compared with a naive approach that overlooks the object interactions, thus illustrating the benefits of their use on the prediction quality.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Fire Now, Fire Later: Alarm-Based Systems for Prescriptive Process Monitoring

Predictive process monitoring is a family of techniques to analyze events produced during the execution of a business process in order to predict the future state or the final outcome of running process instances. Existing techniques in this field are able to predict, at each step of a process instance, the likelihood that it will lead to an undesired outcome.These techniques, however, focus on generating predictions and do not prescribe when and how process workers should intervene to decrease the cost of undesired outcomes. This paper proposes a framework for prescriptive process monitoring, which extends predictive monitoring with the ability to generate alarms that trigger interventions to prevent an undesired outcome or mitigate its effect. The framework incorporates a parameterized cost model to assess the cost-benefit trade-off of generating alarms. We show how to optimize the generation of alarms given an event log of past process executions and a set of cost model parameters. The proposed approaches are empirically evaluated using a range of real-life event logs. The experimental results show that the net cost of undesired outcomes can be minimized by changing the threshold for generating alarms, as the process instance progresses. Moreover, introducing delays for triggering alarms, instead of triggering them as soon as the probability of an undesired outcome exceeds a threshold, leads to lower net costs.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Explainable Predictive Process Monitoring

Predictive Business Process Monitoring is becoming an essential aid for organizations, providing online operational support of their processes. This paper tackles the fundamental problem of equipping predictive business process monitoring with explanation capabilities, so that not only the what but also the why is reported when predicting generic KPIs like remaining time, or activity execution. We use the game theory of Shapley Values to obtain robust explanations of the predictions. The approach has been implemented and tested on real-life benchmarks, showing for the first time how explanations can be given in the field of predictive business process monitoring.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

What if Process Predictions are not followed by Good Recommendations? (Technical Report)

Process-aware Recommender systems (PAR systems) are information systems that aim to monitor process executions, predict their outcome, and recommend effective interventions to reduce the risk of failure. This paper discusses monitoring, predicting, and recommending using a PAR system within a financial institute in the Netherlands to avoid faulty executions. While predictions were based on the analysis of historical data, the most opportune intervention was selected on the basis of human judgment and subjective opinions. The results showed that, while the predictions of risky cases were relatively accurate, no reduction was observed in the number of faulty executions. We believe that this was caused by incorrect choices of interventions. While a large body of research exists on monitoring and predicting based on facts recorded in historicaldata, research on fact-based interventions is relatively limited. This paper reports on lessons learned from the case study in finance and proposes a new methodology to improve the performances of PAR systems. This methodology advocates the importance of several cycles of interactions among all actors involved so as to develop interventions that incorporate their feedback and are based on insights from factual, historical data.

cs.SE↗

arXiv2019

From Low-Level Events to Activities -- A Session-Based Approach (Extended Version)

Process-Mining techniques aim to use event data about past executions to gain insight into how processes are executed. While these techniques are proven to be very valuable, they are less successful to reach their goal if the process is flexible and, hence, events can potentially occur in any order. Furthermore, information systems can record events at very low level, which do not match the high-level concepts known at business level. Without abstracting sequences of events to high-level concepts, the results of applying process mining (e.g., discovered models) easily become very complex and difficult to interpret, which ultimately means that they are of little use. A large body of research exists on event abstraction but typically a large amount of domain knowledge is required to be fed in, which is often not readily available. Other abstraction techniques are unsupervised, which give lower accuracy. This paper puts forward a technique that requires limited domain knowledge that can be easily provided. Traces are divided in sessions, and each session is abstracted as one single high-level activity execution. The abstraction is based on a combination of automatic clustering and visualization methods. The technique was assessed on two case studies that evidently exhibits a large amount of behavior. The results clearly illustrate the benefits of the abstraction to convey knowledge to stakeholders.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2018

Alarm-Based Prescriptive Process Monitoring

Predictive process monitoring is concerned with the analysis of events produced during the execution of a process in order to predict the future state of ongoing cases thereof. Existing techniques in this field are able to predict, at each step of a case, the likelihood that the case will end up in an undesired outcome. These techniques, however, do not take into account what process workers may do with the generated predictions in order to decrease the likelihood of undesired outcomes. This paper proposes a framework for prescriptive process monitoring, which extends predictive process monitoring approaches with the concepts of alarms, interventions, compensations, and mitigation effects. The framework incorporates a parameterized cost model to assess the cost-benefit tradeoffs of applying prescriptive process monitoring in a given setting. The paper also outlines an approach to optimize the generation of alarms given a dataset and a set of cost model parameters. The proposed approach is empirically evaluated using a range of real-life event logs.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

An Integrated Framework for Process Discovery Algorithm Evaluation

Process mining offers techniques to exploit event data by providing insights and recommendations to improve business processes. The growing amount of algorithms for process discovery has raised the question of which algorithms perform best on a given event log. Current evaluation frameworks for empirically evaluating discovery techniques depend on the notation used (behavioral identical models may give different results) and cannot provide more general statements about populations of models. Therefore, this paper proposes a new integrated evaluation framework that uses a classification approach to make it modeling notation independent. Furthermore, it is founded on experimental design to ensure the generalization of results. It supports two main evaluation objectives: benchmarking process discovery algorithms and sensitivity analysis, i.e. studying the effect of model and log characteristics on a discovery algorithm's accuracy. The framework is designed as a scientific workflow which enables automated, extendable and shareable evaluation experiments. An extensive experiment including four discovery algorithms and six control-flow characteristics validates the relevance and flexibility of the framework. Ultimately, the paper aims to advance the state-of-the-art for evaluating process discovery techniques.

cs.SE↗

arXiv2018

A Holistic Approach for Soundness Verification of Decision-Aware Process Models (extended version)

The last decade has witnessed an increasing transformation in the design, engineering, and mining of processes, moving from a pure control-flow perspective to more integrated models where also data and decisions are explicitly considered. This calls for methods and techniques able to ascertain the correctness of such integrated models. Differently from previous approaches, which mainly focused on the local interplay between decisions and their corresponding outgoing branches, we introduce a holistic approach to verify the end-to-end soundness of a Petri net-based process model, enriched with case data and decisions. In particular, we present an effective, implemented technique that verifies soundness by translating the input net into a colored Petri net with bounded color domains, which can then be analyzed using conventional tools. We prove correctness and termination of this technique. In addition, we relate our contribution to recent results on decision-aware soundness, showing that our approach can be readily applied there.

cs.LO↗

arXiv2016

Time and Activity Sequence Prediction of Business Process Instances

The ability to know in advance the trend of running process instances, with respect to different features, such as the expected completion time, would allow business managers to timely counteract to undesired situations, in order to prevent losses. Therefore, the ability to accurately predict future features of running business process instances would be a very helpful aid when managing processes, especially under service level agreement constraints. However, making such accurate forecasts is not easy: many factors may influence the predicted features. Many approaches have been proposed to cope with this problem but all of them assume that the underling process is stationary. However, in real cases this assumption is not always true. In this work we present new methods for predicting the remaining time of running cases. In particular we propose a method, assuming process stationarity, which outperforms the state-of-the-art and two other methods which are able to make predictions even with non-stationary processes. We also describe an approach able to predict the full sequence of activities that a running case is going to take. All these methods are extensively evaluated on two real case studies.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2009

Adaptive Process Management in Highly Dynamic and Pervasive Scenarios

Process Management Systems (PMSs) are currently more and more used as a supporting tool for cooperative processes in pervasive and highly dynamic situations, such as emergency situations, pervasive healthcare or domotics/home automation. But in all such situations, designed processes can be easily invalidated since the execution environment may change continuously due to frequent unforeseeable events. This paper aims at illustrating the theoretical framework and the concrete implementation of SmartPM, a PMS that features a set of sound and complete techniques to automatically cope with unplanned exceptions. PMS SmartPM is based on a general framework which adopts the Situation Calculus and Indigolog.

cs.SE↗