arXiv subjects

Massimo Stiavelli

Publications and source records attributed to Massimo Stiavelli.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

TDCOSMO 2026: A 3% measurement of the Hubble constant from strong lensing and stellar kinematics

We present cosmological constraints from 11 strongly lensed quasars with measured time delays (hereafter, the TDCOSMO-2026 sample). In addition to expanding the sample, we improve many aspects of our blind analysis with respect to our 2025 analysis. Among other improvements, spatially resolved kinematics are available for nine systems, including six with JWST-NIRSpec, compared to one in 2025; for three lens models, JWST-NIRCam images now replace HST; axisymmetric dynamical modeling is applied directly to the spatially resolved data, instead of an axisymmetric correction factor applied to spherical models; and the line-of-sight convergence is now based on the Euclid Flagship simulations instead of the Millennium Simulation. Our baseline and primary result is based on the TDCOSMO-2026 sample, in combination with a prior on $Ω_{\rm m}$ from the DES-Dovekie supernova sample. In the flat $Λ$ cold dark matter ($Λ$CDM) cosmology, we find $H_0=71.1^{+2.4}_{-2.3}$ km.s$^{-1}$.Mpc$^{-1}$, a 3.3% uncertainty that accounts for the mass-sheet degeneracy. The SLACS and SL2S samples are in excellent agreement with the TDCOSMO-2026 sample, improving the precision on $H_0$ in flat $Λ$CDM to 3.0%. Using the DESI-DR2 baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) likelihood instead of DES-Dovekie yields fully consistent results. We also present constraints in the open $Λ$CDM, $w$CDM, $w_0w_a$CDM, and $w_ϕ$CDM cosmologies; the TDCOSMO $H_0$ inference is robust and consistent across all of them. The combination of the TDCOSMO+SLACS+SL2S likelihood with those from DESI-DR2 and DES-Dovekie disfavors $w=-1$ at the $2.3$-$2.5σ$ level in all three dark energy extensions that we tested. We find, e.g., $w_0=-0.88^{+0.04}_{-0.05}$ in $w_ϕ$CDM and $w_0 = -0.85^{+0.07}_{-0.06}$ in $w_0w_a$CDM, while $w_a = -0.48^{+0.46}_{-0.44}$ remains consistent with zero.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

TDCOSMO 2026: new insights on the Hubble tension from strong lensing time delays

We discuss the measurement of the Hubble constant ($H_0$) in flat $Λ$ cold dark matter cosmology based on the blind hierarchical analysis of 11 multiply-imaged quasars (hereafter the TDCOSMO-2026 sample) and described in greater detail in a companion paper. In addition to the time delays, we use lens models based on high-resolution imaging from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), analyzed jointly with axisymmetric dynamical models based on JWST-NIRSpec, VLT-MUSE, and Keck-KCWI spectroscopy. Our primary result $H_0=71.1^{+2.4}_{-2.3}$ km.s$^{-1}$.Mpc$^{-1}$ is based on the TDCOSMO-2026 sample, in combination with $Ω_{\rm m}$ constraints from the DES-Dovekie supernova (SN) dataset. Our 3% precision accounts for the mass-sheet degeneracy. Importantly, our measurement is independent of the local distance ladder (LDL). Among individual late-universe probes, only the traditional LDL is more precise. We discuss our result in the context of the Hubble tension, the difference between $H_0$ measured in the late universe and the prediction based on early-universe probes such as the cosmic microwave background (CMB). We construct combinations of independent late-universe probes and show that the tension with the Planck CMB prediction is robust to excluding any one of the methods based on Type-Ia Supernovae, Cepheids, or the Tip of the Red Giant Branch. For example, we construct a 'no-SN' $H_0$ measurement, by replacing the DES-Dovekie constraint on $Ω_{\rm m}$ with that from DESI baryon acoustic oscillations, and then combining TDCOSMO-2026 with independent non-SN late-universe probes. This 'no-SN' late-universe probe is in 3.7$σ$ tension with Planck. Even after completely excluding the LDL, the tension with Planck persists at the 2.7$σ$ level.

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arXiv2026

Vision-Language Model Ensembles Achieve Human-Expert Accuracy for Galaxy Merger Classification

Models (VLMs) combined using a Bayesian statistical framework can classify galaxy merger morphologies with accuracy comparable to trained human experts. We deploy 15 VLM classifier configurations, spanning four model architectures (Gemma-4 E2B, Gemma-4 E4B, Qwen2.5-VL, and Qwen3-VL) tested with up to four prompt engineering strategies each. We evaluate their performance against a truth-known sample of 41 VELA+SUNRISE mock galaxy images from Lambrides et al. (2021a). As a proof-of-concept, all validation is performed on these mock images; application to real observational samples will require additional calibration and observational validation. The VLM ensemble achieves 83.3% accuracy on confident classifications (merger probability pM >= 0.8 or pM <= 0.2) and 58.3% completeness, with 5 misclassified galaxies, compared to 85% for both human accuracy and completeness. The ensemble recovers the population merger fraction to within 0.66 sigma of the truth (fM = 0.52 +/- 0.09 vs. true value of 0.585). Bayesian weighting improves overall accuracy by 17.1 percentage points over simple majority voting, with sensitivity improving by 29.2 percentage points. The ensemble produces 5 misclassifications (2 false positives, 3 false negatives), comparable to the 6 misclassifications (5 false positives, 1 false negative) reported for human classifiers by L21. The error-profile differences are not statistically significant for this sample. VLMs also produce more moderate per-galaxy merger probability distributions (27% uncertain) than the more polarized human distributions (15% uncertain), though this difference is also consistent with statistical fluctuation. These results establish VLMs as scalable, reproducible alternatives to human classifiers within a Bayesian probabilistic merger-fraction framework, for large-survey applications.

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arXiv2026

TDCOSMO XXIX: JWST/NIRSpec IFU Spatially Resolved Kinematics of Three Time-delay Lenses

Spatially resolved stellar kinematics are critical to the high precision achieved by cosmological probes utilizing time delays of strongly lensed quasars. Combined with high-resolution imaging and lens modeling, dynamical models of the 2D resolved kinematics of the deflector galaxy tightly constrain the mass profile and break the mass-sheet degeneracy, in turn providing tight constraints on the Hubble constant when the time delays are included. We extract stellar kinematics of the deflector galaxies in the quadruply lensed quasar systems HE0435-1223, PG1115+080, and WFI2033-4723 from James Webb Space Telescope Near-Infrared Spectrograph (JWST-NIRSpec) integral field spectroscopy. The kinematic maps reach average per-bin total (statistical and systematic) uncertainties of 6-11%, with average bin-to-bin correlated errors of only $\sim 1.2\%$. The aperture-integrated velocity dispersions are statistically consistent with the values used in the previous TDCOSMO analysis (all within $0.9σ$), with their average uncertainty reduced from 3.7% to 2.4% owing to improvements in the data reduction and kinematic-extraction methodology. We classify PG1115+080 as a fast rotator, HE0435-1223 and WFI2033-4723 as slow rotators within the probed radii, and we refine the source redshifts from the kinematics of the lensed host galaxies. Kinematic maps will be combined with time delays, lens models, and line-of-sight convergence estimates to measure cosmological parameters in the upcoming TDCOSMO 2026 milestone publication.

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arXiv2026

RIOJA. Environmental Effects on Stellar Populations and Ionized Gas in a Protocluster at $z=7.88$

Protoclusters in the epoch of reionization provide key laboratories for investigating how environment shapes early galaxy formation and evolution, and may also have contributed to cosmic reionization. We analyze 23 member galaxies of A2744-z7p9OD, a protocluster at $z=7.88$, using JWST/NIRCam and NIRSpec to investigate their stellar population properties, rest-frame UV sizes, and ionized-gas properties. We also quantify the internal structure of A2744-z7p9OD using the projected distance to the most massive galaxy ($D_{\rm YD4}$), and to the nearest neighbor ($D_{\rm nei}$), as global and local environmental indicators, respectively. Stellar mass, SFR on a 100 Myr timescale, dust attenuation, and galaxy size show significant correlations ($p<0.05$) with $D_{\rm YD4}$, but not with $D_{\rm nei}$, suggesting that these properties are primarily linked to the global protocluster structure. The member galaxies also show a large galaxy-to-galaxy variation in R23 ($=\log{(([\mathrm{O}\text{\textsc{iii}}]λ\lambda4960,5008\rmÅ+[\mathrm{O}\text{\textsc{ii}}]λ\lambda3727,3730\rmÅ)/\rm{H}β)}$), implying inhomogeneous chemical enrichment in the protocluster environment. O32 ($=\log{([\mathrm{O}\text{\textsc{iii}}]\lambda5008\rmÅ/[\mathrm{O}\text{\textsc{ii}}]λ\lambda3727,3730\rmÅ)}$) correlates with $D_{\rm YD4}$, indicating that the core region is characterized by low-ionization gas. Together with the non-detection of Ly$α$ emission, the possible neutral-gas reservoir traced by ALMA [C{\sc ii}]~$158μ$m emission, and evidence for high-column-density neutral hydrogen in the core, this suggests a neutral-gas-rich protocluster core where the current escape of ionizing photons may be suppressed, even in a overdense environment during the EoR.

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arXiv2026

Diverse ionized gas conditions in a dynamically hot, interacting galaxy at $z = 9.31$ revealed by JWST/NIRSpec IFU

We present a spatially and spectrally resolved study of an interacting galaxy, Gz9p3 at $z=9.31$, using the James Webb Space Telescope NIRSpec/G395H IFU observation with high-spectral resolution ($R\approx 2700$) mode. Gz9p3 consists of two sub-regions (`core' and `tail'), which show stark contrast in their physical properties. The HII regions in the core are characterized by high electron density ($n_{e}\gtrsim2900$ cm$^{-3}$), low gas-phase metallicity ($0.25$ dex below the mass-metallicity relation), and yet relatively low specific star formation rate (sSFR) among the system. On the other hand, the tail exhibits low electron density ($n_{e}<70$ cm$^{-3}$), relatively high gas-phase metallicity that is consistent with the mass-metallicity relation, and high sSFR. The integrated spectrum thus shows the properties inbetween these two regions. No evidence of ordered rotation in ionized gas is found, suggesting that Gz9p3 is a dynamically hot system. Finally, we find ionized gas outflows characterized by the secondary [OIII]5007 line component throughout most of the system. The outflow velocity is below the escape velocity, making Gz9p3 one of the first galactic systems experiencing a galactic fountain. Overall, our findings indicate that this system is in a phase in which the pristine gas is falling efficiently into the core, diluting the gas metallicity, and enhancing star formation and outflows after the galaxy interaction.

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arXiv2026

BEACON: JWST NIRCam Pure-parallel Imaging Survey. III. Constraints on the UV LF and the Clustering of z~7-14 Galaxies

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) has extended the frontier of galaxy detection to redshifts z>11, finding a high abundance of UV-bright sources that challenge theoretical models. However, most current results come from just a few fields, introducing uncertainties due to cosmic variance. Here, we constrain z~7-14 UV luminosity functions (LFs) over ~400 sq. arcmin across 36 independent sightlines from DR2 of BEACON, a JWST pure-parallel NIRCam multi-band imaging survey. We identify 164 7 13 do not rule out a possible excess. We measure significant clustering of bright (Muv<-20.5) galaxies at 7<z<10. Fields hosting such sources are approximately three times more likely to be overdense relative to the full survey, implying that UV-bright galaxies preferentially reside in the most massive halos at these redshifts. Comparing with semi-numerical simulations, we estimate that Muv < -20.5 galaxies inhabit halos ~0.8 dex less massive at z~11 than at z~8, consistent with a shift to higher star formation rates. However, their observed clustering exceeds predictions from pre-JWST luminosity-halo mass relations, suggesting these sources reside in more massive halos than previously modelled and/or multiple halo occupation.

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arXiv2026

A Type Ia Supernova Candidate at $z\sim4.3$: A Transient Interloper in the Search for $z\sim14$ Galaxies

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is opening a new window into the distant Universe by discovering galaxies and transients in the early Universe. We investigate a high-redshift transient candidate, beacon_1420-5253_4770. This object was initially identified as a high-redshift galaxy candidate at $z\sim14$. However, the source was not detected in epochs before and after the detection epoch, suggesting that the object is a transient source rather than a persistent galaxy. We classify the source by comparing the colors, magnitudes, light curves, and spectral energy distribution with various spectral templates of transients. Our analysis shows that the observed properties are consistent with a Type Ia supernova at $z\sim4.3$. Strong absorption by Fe-group elements seen in Type Ia supernova spectra can mimic the Lyman break used to detect high-redshift galaxies. At $z \sim 4.3$, corresponding to a cosmic age of only $\sim 1.5$ Gyr, our detection provides a direct probe of the delay time between star formation and supernova explosion. Our estimate of the event rate implies a minimum delay time shorter than 1 Gyr. We also discuss the implications of transient contamination for searches of galaxies in the early Universe.

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arXiv2026

BEACON: JWST NIRCam Pure-parallel Imaging Survey. IV. A Systematic Search for Galaxy Overdensities and Evidence for Gas Accretion Mode Transition

We systematically search for galaxy overdensities using 20 independent fields with a minimum of six filters (F090W, F115W, F150W, F277W, F356W, and F444W) from BEACON, the JWST Cycle 2 NIRCam pure-parallel imaging survey. We apply an adaptive kernel-density estimation method that incorporates the full photometric redshift probability distribution function of each galaxy to map galaxy overdensities, and identify 207 significant ($>4\,σ$) overdensities at $1.5 3$, potentially due to a larger cold gas supply in earlier times. Our study reveals a complex interplay between individual galaxies and large-scale environmental properties, marking the onset of environmental effects on galaxy quenching in massive halos at cosmic noon.

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arXiv2026

The Incidence of Large Ionized Bubbles at Redshift 13

Ionized bubbles around the first galaxies link early galaxy growth, ionizing photon escape, intergalactic-medium topology, Lyα visibility, 21 cm structure, and the timing of reionization. With JWST now constraining both the abundance of luminous galaxies at $z\gtrsim 10$ and rare Ly$α$ emitters deep in the neutral era, it is timely to ask how often galaxy populations produce large ionized environments. We model the incidence of galaxy-driven ionized bubbles at $z\approx 13$ using JWST UV luminosity functions, taking the Ly$α$ source reported by Witstok et al. (2025) as a benchmark for the relevant bubble scale. We quantify the incidence of regions with comoving radius $R\ge 2.5$ cMpc through the sky surface density $Σ_{\ge 2.5}$ at $z\approx 13$. For our fiducial case (UVLF from Donnan et al. 2024 with $f_{\mathrm{esc}}=0.2$, $\logξ_{\mathrm{ion}}=25.5$, $f_{\mathrm{duty}}=1$, and $C=3$), we find $Σ_{\ge 2.5}\simeq 1.33\times 10^{-2}$ arcmin$^{-2}$ per $Δz=1$. Because bubbles are treated as independent spheres with random source positions and no union of overlaps, this is a conservative baseline for the abundance of connected ionized environments. We conclude that Witstok-sized regions are plausible in UVLF-calibrated galaxy-driven models. This is a population-level statement, however, and the specific Witstok source may still require unusual effective ionizing efficiency, recent fading or burstiness, or a non-stellar ionizing contribution.

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arXiv2026

A recoiling supermassive black hole in a powerful quasar

Supermassive black holes (SMBH) are thought to grow through accretion of matter and mergers. Models of SMBH mergers have long suffered the final parsec problem, where SMBH binaries may stall before energy loss from gravitational waves (GW) becomes significant, leaving the pair unmerged. Direct evidence of coalesced SMBH remains elusive. Theory predicts that GW recoiling black holes can occur following a black hole merger. Here we present new and conclusive spectroscopic evidence that both the accretion disk and the broad line region in the spatially offset quasar 3C 186 are blue-shifted by the same velocity relative to the host galaxy, with a line of sight velocity of (-1310 +- 21) km/s. This is best explained by the GW recoil super-kick scenario. This confirmation of the ejection process implies that the final parsec problem is resolved in nature, providing evidence that even the most massive black holes can merge.

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arXiv2026

Pristine Massive Star Formation Caught at the Break of Cosmic Dawn

The existence of galaxies with no heavy elements is a key prediction of cosmological models. So far no "zero-metallicity", or Population~III, galaxies have been identified. Here, we report the identification of an extremely metal-poor galaxy AMORE6 at redshift $z=5.7253$, multiply imaged by a foreground galaxy cluster. JWST spectra consistently detect ${\rm Hβ}$ at both positions, but [OIII]$_{λ\lambda4960,5008}$ remains undetected. This places a firm upper limit on its oxygen abundance, $<$0.19% of solar metallicity at 3$σ$, establishing itself as the most pristine galaxy by far. AMORE6 exhibits exceptional properties that indicate the presence of pristine massive star formation. Finding such an example at a relatively late cosmic time is surprising, but it also validates the basic ideas behind the Big Bang model.

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arXiv2026

Possible evidence for a pair-instability supernova nature of ultra-early JWST sources

Recent JWST observations have revealed a population of unexpectedly bright sources at ultra-high redshift ($z > 15$), challenging current models of early galaxy formation. One extreme example is 'Capotauro', an F356W-dropout identified in the CEERS survey and initially interpreted as a luminous galaxy at $z\sim30$, but subsequently found to be variable over an $\sim 800$ day baseline. Motivated by this variability, we explore the alternative hypothesis that Capotauro is a pair-instability supernova (PISN) originating from a massive ($250-260\,M_\odot$), metal-free star. Using state-of-the-art PISN light curves, spectral energy distributions, and synthetic spectra, we show that a PISN at $z\simeq 15$ can plausibly reproduce the observed brightness, temporal evolution, photometry, and NIRSpec spectrum. We compare this scenario with alternative interpretations, including a local Y0 brown dwarf, and discuss observational tests to discriminate among them. If confirmed, this event would provide a rare window onto Population III stars, and highlights the importance of transient contamination in ultra-high redshift galaxy samples.

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arXiv2026

The case for super-Eddington accretion in JWST broad-line AGN during the first billion years

A multitude of JWST studies reveal a surprising over-abundance of over-massive accreting super-massive black holes (SMBHs) -- leading to a deepening tension between theory and observation in the first billion years of cosmic time. Across X-ray to infrared wavelengths, models built off of pre-JWST predictions fail to easily reproduce observed AGN signatures (or lack thereof), driving uncertainty around the true nature of these sources. Using a sample of JWST AGN identified via their broadened H$α$ emission and covered by the deepest X-ray surveys, we find neither any measurable X-ray emission nor any detection of high-ionization emission lines frequently associated with accreting SMBHs. We propose that these sources are accreting at or beyond the Eddington limit, which reduces the need for efficient production of heavy SMBH seeds at cosmic dawn. Using a theoretical model of super-Eddington accretion, we can produce the observed relative dearth of both X-ray and ultraviolet emission, as well as the high Balmer decrements, without the need for significant dust attenuation. This work indicates that super-Eddington accretion is easily achieved through-out the early Universe, and further study is required to determine what environments are required to trigger this mode of black hole growth.

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arXiv2026

The BoRG-$JWST$ Survey: Analogs at $z\sim8$ to the UV-luminous Galaxy Population at $z\gtrsim10$

The population of bright galaxies at $z\gtrsim10$ discovered by JWST, including the so-called "blue monsters", has been difficult to reconcile with standard galaxy evolution models. To shed light on this extraordinary population, we study the $z\sim8$ galaxies discovered by the BoRG-$JWST$ survey. These slightly-lower redshift analogs are comparable in UV luminosity to the blue monsters, and their lower redshift makes it much easier to access key rest frame optical diagnostics with NIRspec. We find that BoRG-$JWST$ galaxies are consistent with being dust-poor based on their blue UV slopes and Balmer decrement ratios. We find no strong evidence for dominant active galactic nuclei contribution to the UV brightness, based on line-ratio diagnostics, though some contribution cannot be excluded. We further infer the stellar mass, star formation and UV-brightness history of the BoRG-$JWST$ galaxies by fitting their rest-frame UV-optical spectra. We see evidence for stochastic episodes of star formation for all the BoRG-$JWST$ galaxies, providing a temporal boosting of UV luminosity in short timescales. The UV-bright blue monsters at $z\gtrsim10$ can be explained by the presence of stars with ages below 100 Myr.

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arXiv2026

TDCOSMO XXIV. First spatially resolved kinematics of the lens galaxy obtained using JWST-NIRSpec to improve time-delay cosmography

Spatially resolved stellar kinematics has become a key ingredient in time-delay cosmography to break the mass-sheet degeneracy in the mass profile and in turn provide a precise constraint on the Hubble constant and other cosmological parameters. In this paper, we present the first measurements of 2D resolved stellar kinematics for the lens galaxy in the quadruply lensed quasar system RXJ1131$-$1231 using integral field spectroscopy from JWST's Near-Infrared Spectrograph (NIRSpec), marking the first such measurement conducted with JWST. In extracting robust kinematic measurements from this first-of-its-kind dataset, we have made methodological improvements both in the data reduction and kinematic extraction. In our kinematic extraction procedure, we performed joint modeling of the lens galaxy, the quasar, and its host galaxy's contributions in the spectra to deblend the lens galaxy component and robustly constrain its stellar kinematics. Our improved methodological frameworks are released as software pipelines for future use: squirrel, for extracting stellar kinematics, and RegalJumper, for JWST-NIRSpec data reduction. We incorporated additional artifact cleaning beyond the standard JWST pipeline. We compared our measured stellar kinematics from the JWST NIRSpec with previously obtained ground-based measurements from the Keck Cosmic Web Imager integral field unit and find that the two datasets are statistically consistent at a $\sim$1.1$σ$ confidence level. Our measured kinematics will be used in a future study to improve the precision of the Hubble constant measurement.

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arXiv2026

How Bursty is Star Formation at z>5?

Motivated by observational evidence from JWST and theoretical results from cosmological simulations, we use a simple parametric, phenomenological model to test to what extent bursty star formation with standard Initial Mass Function, no continuous star formation, no mergers, \mr{and no dust} can account for the observed properties in the $M_{UV}$ vs $M_*$ plane of galaxies at redshifts $z>5$. We find that the simplest model that fits the data has a quiescence period between bursts $Δt \sim 100$~Myrs and the stellar mass in each galaxy grows linearly as a function of time from $z=12$ to $z=5$ (i.e., repeated bursts in each galaxy produce approximately equal mass in stars). The distribution of burst masses across different galaxies follows a power-law $dN/dM_* \propto M_*^α$ with slope $α\sim -2$. At $z>9-10$ the observed galaxy population typically had only one or two bursts of stars formation, hence the observed stellar masses at these redshifts (reaching $M_* \sim 10^{10}$~M$_\odot$), roughly represent the distribution of masses formed in one burst.

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arXiv2026

A Nitrogen-rich AGN Powering a Large Ionizing Bubble at z=8.63

We report the detection of Ly$α$ in CANUCS-LRD-z8.6, a recently discovered AGN at z = 8.63 by Tripodi et al. (2024), in new NIRSpec/MSA G140H/F070LP observations. We detect broad Ly$α$ emission (FWHM $= 1540 \pm 260$ km/s) near the systemic velocity, which suggests a large ionizing bubble considering that the universe is almost fully neutral at the redshift. Through Ly$α$ line-shape modeling assuming a Stromgren sphere, we find a large bubble radius, $R_b = 1.5^{+0.3}_{-0.2}$ pMpc, and a moderately high Ly$α$ escape fraction, $f_{esc} = 11 \pm 3$ %. The intrinsic line width is inferred to be broad ($2200 \pm 280$ km/s), likely originating in the broad-line region. Existing data indicate that CANUCS-LRD-z8.6 is within a mild overdensity, $δ= 1.8^{+3.0}_{-0.6}$, suggesting that other galaxies in its proximity might have contributed to the formation of the bubble. The high N IV]$λ$1488 / C IV$λ$1548 and N IV]$λ$1488 / O III]$λ$1661 line ratios measured in existing NIRSpec/PRISM data indicate nitrogen enrichment in this metal-poor, low-luminosity AGN. The spectroscopic features are overall similar to other nitrogen-rich galaxies discovered in the literature, such as GN-z11 and GHZ2/GLASSz12. This suggests that CANUCS-LRD-z8.6 may represent one of the evolutionary phases of those nitrogen-rich galaxies.

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