Matej Nevrla | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

Common Idiosyncratic Quantile Factors and Asset Prices

We investigate whether the tails of firm-level idiosyncratic return distributions are driven by common shocks. We use quantile factor analysis to extract such common idiosyncratic quantile factors with asymmetric pricing effects and we find a significant premium for innovations to the lower-tail factor: high-beta stocks outperform low-beta stocks by around 7-8% per year. This premium remains significant even when controlling for standard factors, idiosyncratic volatility and tail-risk measures. The downside factor strengthens when intermediary capital is weak and market liquidity is low, and it predicts aggregate market excess returns.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2020

Investment Disputes and Abnormal Volatility of Stocks

Dramatic growth of investment disputes between foreign investors and host states rises serious questions about the impact of those disputes on investors. This paper is the first to explain increased uncertainty of investors about the outcome of arbitration, which may or may not lead to compensation for damages claimed by the investor. We find robust evidence that investment disputes lead to abnormal share fluctuations of companies involved in disputes with host countries. Importantly, while a positive outcome for an investor decreases uncertainty back to original levels, we document strong increase in the volatility of companies with negative outcome for the investor. We find that several variables including size of the award, political instability, location of arbitration, country of origin of investor or public policy considerations in host country explain large portion of the investor's uncertainty.

q-fin.GN↗