arXiv subjects

Mateja Dumbovic

Publications and source records attributed to Mateja Dumbovic.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Coronal Mass Ejection and Heliospheric Current Sheet Interaction Causing a Long-Duration Magnetic Field Sector Transition

We present a study that combines remote-sensing and in-situ observations of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) interacting with the nearby heliospheric current sheet (HCS). The sequence of eruptive events under study culminates in the largest directly observed flare of solar cycle 25 on 3 October 2024, producing a fast halo CME. Their source region can be linked to a so-called nested active region (or active longitude) that persisted over several solar rotations. Such long-lived regions reflect deep-seated magnetic structures that shape the global magnetic field configuration. By applying the drag-based CME propagation model, we connect the near-Sun observations from several CMEs during that activity period with in-situ measurements. While one of the CMEs propagated on the opposite side of the HCS from Earth, and therefore did not produce in-situ signatures near Earth, we detect, over the period October 5-10, 2024, a complex of HCS and CME structures propagating together with a shock ahead of them. The HCS seems to be locally replaced by the CME signatures, leading to a long-duration sector reversal of more than 48 hours. This event highlights the intrinsic connection between solar surface structures, the global magnetic field, and the evolution of complex eruptive events.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2026

Probing the magnetic field of a coronal mass ejection with PSR J1022+1001

We investigate whether low-frequency pulsar observations can provide LoS magnetic field estimates and whether these are consistent with synthetic LoS signatures extracted from a three-dimensional CME reconstruction constrained by Solar Orbiter data. We analyze a CME occultation of the LoS to PSR J1022+1001 on 20 August 2021 at a projected heliocentric distance of 24.6 R_sun, observed simultaneously with LOFAR and NenuFAR. From LOFAR, we derive time-resolved dispersion measure (DM) and rotation measure (RM) and isolate the CME contributions using background estimates for interstellar, solar wind and ionospheric components. We then infer the density-weighted LoS-averaged magnetic field component _PSR from the ratio delta-RM/delta-DM. In parallel, we reconstruct the CME using a semi-empirical 3DCORE model fitted to Solar Orbiter in-situ magnetic field observations at 0.65 au. We sample the modeled magnetic field along the pulsar LoS using fixed spatial sampling points and compute synthetic LoS-averaged signatures _3D for different flux rope configurations. The derived _PSR increases from approximately -9 nT to a peak near 63 nT during the observed interval. Comparison with synthetic signatures shows that the polarity and temporal evolution of the LoS signal are strongly dependent on the flux rope configuration and only a South-West-North (SWN) configuration (confirmed by Solar Orbiter in-situ data) reproduces the observed sign and overall evolution, whereas alternative configurations are incompatible. The modeled amplitudes, however, are systematically larger than the pulsar-derived values by roughly a factor of five. We show that simultaneous low-frequency pulsar DM and RM measurements can provide LoS magnetic field estimates for a CME and can be used to test CME magnetic structure against data-constrained three-dimensional reconstructions.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2025

Coronal mass ejection arrival forecasting with the drag-based assimilation of satellite observations

Forecasting the arrival of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is vital for protecting satellites, power systems, and human spaceflight. We present HELIOPANDA: Heliospheric Observer for Predicting CME Arrival via Nonlinear Drag Assimilation, a framework that integrates the Drag-Based Model (DBM) with spacecraft observations using iterative parameter estimation and Kalman filter assimilation. We introduce a method for estimating the solar wind speed $w$ and drag parameter $\gamma$, two key but usually unknown quantities controlling CME propagation, through direct solutions of the DBM equations. We tested the method on 4,480 synthetic CME profiles spanning CME speeds of $200-3500$ km/s, solar wind speeds of $250-800$ km/s, and drag parameters of $0.1-1.0\times10^{-7}$ km$^{-1}$. The results demonstrate that the framework provides accurate reconstructions of the DBM input parameters, providing a solid basis for in-situ and remote-sensing applications. By testing a single virtual spacecraft positioned at nine distances along the Sun-Earth line, HELIOPANDA achieved arrival-time errors as low as 0.6 hours for a 600 km/s CME and 1 hour for a 2500 km/s CME when the spacecraft was located 30 million km from the Sun. We developed a Kalman filter framework to assimilate noisy heliospheric data into the DBM, enabling recursive updates of CME kinematics and robust estimates of $w$ and $\gamma$, and yielding Earth and Mars arrival-time predictions within $1-2$ hours using 160 simulated hourly measurements. By combining DBM, parameter recovery, and data assimilation, HELIOPANDA provides a pathway to real-time, multi-point CME forecasts, suited to observations from Solar Orbiter, Parker Solar Probe, PUNCH, and planned L4/L5 missions.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

Three-part structure of solar coronal mass ejection observed in low coronal signatures of Solar Orbiter

This study examines the relationship between early solar coronal mass ejection (CME) propagation, the associated filament eruption, and coronal dimming in the rare event observed on March 28, 2022, which featured a three-part CME in the low corona of active region AR 12975, including a bright core/filament, dark cavity, and bright front edge. We employ 3D filament and CME shock reconstructions using data from SolO, STEREO-A, and SDO to track the filament's path, height, and kinematics. Our analysis across three viewpoints shows the outer front in SolO/EUI 304 \r{A} aligns with shock structures in STEREO-A/EUVI 195 \r{A}, showing a full 3D EUV wave dome, later matching the outer CME front in STEREO-A COR2. We introduce the method ATLAS-3D (Advanced Technique for single Line-of-sight Acquisition of Structures in 3D) and validate it against traditional approaches to reconstruct CME shock using SOLO data exclusively. Additionally, we estimate early CME propagation characteristics based on coronal dimming evolution with the DIRECD method. Results indicate that the filament height increased from 28 to 616 Mm (0.04 to 0.89 Rs) within 30 minutes (11:05 to 11:35 UT), reaching peak velocity of around 648 km/s and acceleration of around 1624 m/s$^2$. At 11:45 UT, the filament deflected by 12{\deg} to a height of 841 Mm (1.21 Rs), while the CME shock expanded from 383 to 837 Mm (0.55 to 1.2 Rs) over 10 minutes. Key parameters include a CME direction inclined by 6{\deg}, a 21{\deg} half-width, and a 1.12 Rs cone height at the dimming's impulsive phase end. This event demonstrates that expanding dimming correlates with early CME development, with the DIRECD method linking 2D dimming to 3D CME evolution. These insights underscore the value of multi-viewpoint observations and advanced reconstructions for improving space weather forecasting.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

Estimating early coronal mass ejection propagation direction with DIRECD during the severe May 8 and follow-up June 8, 2024 events

On May 8, 2024, solar active region 13664 produced an X-class flare, several M-class flares, and multiple Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). The initial CME caused coronal dimmings, characterized by localized reductions in extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) emissions, indicating mass loss and expansion during the eruption. After one solar rotation, on June 8, 2024, the same region produced another M-class flare followed by coronal dimmings observed by the SDO and STEREO spacecraft. We analyzed early CME evolution and direction from coronal dimming expansion at the end of the impulsive phase using the DIRECD (Dimming Inferred Estimation of CME Direction) method. To validate the 3D CME cone, we compared CME properties from the low corona with white-light coronagraph data. The May 8 CME expanded radially, with a 7.7 deg inclination, 70 deg angular width, and 0.81 Rsun cone height, while the June 8 CME had a 15.7 deg inclination, 81 deg width, and 0.89 Rsun height. Our study shows that tracking low coronal signatures, like coronal dimming expansion, can estimate CME direction early, providing crucial lead time for space weather forecasts.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

Deriving the interaction point between a Coronal Mass Ejection and High Speed Stream: A case study

We analyze the interaction between an Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) detected in situ at the L1 Lagrange point on 2016 October 12 with a trailing High-Speed Stream (HSS). We aim to estimate the region in the interplanetary (IP) space where the interaction happened/started using a combined observational-modeling approach. We use Minimum Variance Analysis and the Walen test to analyze possible reconnection exhaust at the interface of ICME and HSS. We perform a Graduated Cylindrical Shell reconstruction of the CME to estimate the geometry and source location of the CME. Finally, we use a two-step Drag Based Model (DBM) model to estimate the region in IP space where the interaction took place. The magnetic obstacle (MO) observed in situ shows a fairly symmetric and undisturbed structure and shows the magnetic flux, helicity, and expansion profile/speed of a typical ICME. The MVA together with the Walen test, however, confirms reconnection exhaust at the ICME HSS boundary. Thus, in situ signatures are in favor of a scenario where the interaction is fairly recent. The trailing HSS shows a distinct velocity profile which first reaches a semi-saturated plateau with an average velocity of 500 km/s and then saturates at a maximum speed of 710 km/s . We find that the HSS interaction with the ICME is influenced only by this initial plateau. The results of the two-step DBM suggest that the ICME has started interacting with the HSS close to Earth (approx 0.81 au), which compares well with the deductions from in situ signatures.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

The catalog of Hvar Observatory solar observations

We compile the catalog of Hvar Observatory solar observations in the time period corresponding to regular digitally stored chromospheric and photospheric observations 2010-2019. We make basic characterisation of observed phenomena and compare them to catalogs which are based on full disc solar images. We compile a catalog of observed ARs consisting of 1100 entries, where each AR is classified according to McIntosh and Mt Wilson classifications. We find that HVAR observations are biased towards more frequently observing more complex ARs and observing them in longer time periods, likely related to the small FOV not encompassing the whole solar disc. In H$α$ observations we catalog conspicuous filaments/prominences and flares. We characterise filaments according to their location, chirality (if possible) and eruptive signatures. Analysis of the eruptive filaments reveals a slight bias in HVAR catalog towards observation of partial eruptions, possibly related to the observers tendency to observe filament which already showed some activity. In the flare catalog we focus on their observed eruptive signatures (loops or ribbons) and their shape. In addition, we associate them to GOES soft X-ray flares to determine their corresponding class. We find that HVAR observations seem biased towards more frequently observing stronger flares and observing them in longer time periods. We demonstrate the feasibility of the catalog on a case study of the flare detected on 2 August 2011 in HVAR H$α$ observations and related Sun-to-Earth phenomena. Through flare-CME-ICME association we demonstrate the agreement of remote and in situ properties. The data used for this study, as well as the catalog, are made publicly available.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

Particle Radiation Environment in the Heliosphere: Status, limitations and recommendations

Space weather is a multidisciplinary research area connecting scientists from across heliophysics domains seeking a coherent understanding of our space environment that can also serve modern life and society's needs. COSPAR's ISWAT (International Space Weather Action Teams) 'clusters' focus attention on different areas of space weather study while ensuring the coupled system is broadly addressed via regular communications and interactions. The ISWAT cluster "H3: Radiation Environment in the Heliosphere" (https://www.iswat-cospar.org/h3) has been working to provide a scientific platform to understand, characterize and predict the energetic particle radiation in the heliosphere with the practical goal of mitigating radiation risks associated with areospace activities, satellite industry and human space explorations. In particular, present approaches help us understand the physical phenomena at large, optimizing the output of multi-viewpoint observations and pushing current models to their limits. In this paper, we review the scientific aspects of the radiation environment in the heliosphere covering four different radiation types: Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs), Ground Level Enhancement (GLE, a type of SEP events with energies high enough to trigger the enhancement of ground-level detectors), Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) and Anomalous Cosmic Rays (ACRs). We focus on related advances in the research community in the past 10-20 years and what we still lack in terms of understanding and predictive capabilities. Finally we also consider some recommendations related to the improvement of both observational and modeling capabilities in the field of space radiation environment.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2022

Maximal growth rate of the ascending phase of a sunspot cycle for predicting its amplitude

Forecasting the solar cycle amplitude is important for a better understanding of the solar dynamo as well as for many space weather applications. We demonstrated a steady relationship between the maximal growth rate of sunspot activity in the ascending phase of a cycle and the subsequent cycle amplitude on the basis of four data sets of solar activity indices: total sunspot numbers, hemispheric sunspot numbers from the new catalogue from 1874 onwards, total sunspot areas, and hemispheric sunspot areas. For all the data sets, a linear regression based on the maximal growth rate precursor shows a significant correlation. Validation of predictions for cycles 1-24 shows high correlations between the true and predicted cycle amplitudes reaching r = 0.93 for the total sunspot numbers. The lead time of the predictions varies from 2 to 49 months, with a mean value of 21 months. Furthermore, we demonstrated that the sum of maximal growth rate indicators determined separately for the north and the south hemispheric sunspot numbers provides more accurate predictions than that using total sunspot numbers. The advantages reach 27% and 11% on average in terms of rms and correlation coefficient, respectively. The superior performance is also confirmed with hemispheric sunspot areas with respect to total sunspot areas. The maximal growth rate of sunspot activity in the ascending phase of a solar cycle serves as a reliable precursor of the subsequent cycle amplitude. Furthermore, our findings provide a strong foundation for supporting regular monitoring, recording, and predictions of solar activity with hemispheric sunspot data, which capture the asymmetric behaviour of the solar activity and solar magnetic field and enhance solar cycle prediction methods.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

Determination of CME orientation and consequences for their propagation

The configuration of the interplanetary magnetic field and features of the related ambient solar wind in the ecliptic and meridional plane are different. Therefore, one can expect that the orientation of the flux-rope axis of a coronal mass ejection (CME) influences the propagation of the CME itself. However, the determination of the CME orientation, especially from image data, remains a challenging task to perform. This study aims to provide a reference to different CME orientation determination methods in the near-Sun environment. Also, it aims to investigate the non-radial flow in the sheath region of the interplanetary CME (ICME) in order to provide the first proxy to relate the ICME orientation with its propagation. We investigated 22 isolated CME-ICME events in the period 2008-2015. We determined the CME orientation in the near-Sun environment using the following: 1) a 3D reconstruction of the CME with the graduated cylindrical shell (GCS) model applied to coronagraphic images provided by the STEREO and SOHO missions and; 2) an ellipse fitting applied to single spacecraft data from SOHO/LASCO C2 and C3 coronagraphs. In the near-Earth environment, we obtained the orientation of the corresponding ICME using in situ plasma and field data and also investigated the non-radial flow (NRF) in its sheath region. The ability of GCS and ellipse fitting to determine the CME orientation is found to be limited to reliably distinguish only between the high or low inclination of the events. Most of the CME-ICME pairs under investigation were found to be characterized by a low inclination. For the majority of CME-ICME pairs, we obtain consistent estimations of the tilt from remote and in situ data. The observed NRFs in the sheath region show a greater y direction to z direction flow ratio for high-inclination events, indicating that the CME orientation could have an impact on the CME propagation.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

Analytic modeling of recurrent Forbush decreases caused by corotating interaction regions

On scales of days, the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux is affected by coronal mass ejections and corotating interaction regions (CIRs), causing so-called Forbush decreases and recurrent Forbush decreases (RFDs), respectively. We explain the properties and behavior of RFDs recorded at about 1 au that are caused by CIRs generated by solar wind high-speed streams (HSSs) that emanate from coronal holes. We employed a convection-diffusion GCR propagation model based on the Fokker-Planck equation and applied it to solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field properties at 1 au. Our analysis shows that the only two effects that are relevant for a plausible overall explanation of the observations are the enhanced convection effect caused by the increased velocity of the HSS and the reduced diffusion effect caused by the enhanced magnetic field and its fluctuations within the CIR and HSS structure. These two effects that we considered in the model are sufficient to explain not only the main signatures of RFDs, but also the sometimes observed "over-recovery" and secondary dips in RFD profiles. The explanation in terms of the convection-diffusion GCR propagation hypothesis is tested by applying our model to the observations of a long-lived CIR that recurred over 27 rotations in 2007-2008. Our analysis demonstrates a very good match of the model results and observations.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

Generic profile of a long-lived corotating interaction region and associated recurrent Forbush decrease

We observe and analyse a long-lived corotating interaction region (CIR), originating from a single coronal hole (CH), recurring in 27 consecutive Carrington rotations 2057-2083 in the time period from June 2007 - May 2009. We studied the in situ measurements of this long-lived CIR as well as the corresponding depression in the cosmic ray (CR) count observed by SOHO/EPHIN throughout different rotations. We performed a statistical analysis, as well as the superposed epoch analysis, using relative values of the key parameters: the total magnetic field strength, B, the magnetic field fluctuations, dBrms, plasma flow speed, v, plasma density, n, plasma temperature, T , and the SOHO/EPHIN F-detector particle count, and CR count. We find that the mirrored CR count-time profile is correlated with that of the flow speed, ranging from moderate to strong correlation, depending on the rotation. In addition, we find that the CR count dip amplitude is correlated to the peak in the magnetic field and flow speed of the CIR. These results are in agreement with previous statistical studies. Finally, using the superposed epoch analysis, we obtain a generic CIR example, which reflects the in situ properties of a typical CIR well. Our results are better explained based on the combined convection-diffusion approach of the CIR-related GCR modulation. Furthermore, qualitatively, our results do not differ from those based on different CHs samples. This indicates that the change of the physical properties of the recurring CIR from one rotation to another is not qualitatively different from the change of the physical properties of CIRs originating from different CHs. Finally, the obtained generic CIR example, analyzed on the basis of superposed epoch analysis, can be used as a reference for testing future models.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

Drag-based model (DBM) tools for forecast of coronal mass ejection arrival time and speed

Forecasting the arrival time of CMEs and their associated shocks is one of the key aspects of space weather research. One of the commonly used models is, due to its simplicity and calculation speed, the analytical drag-based model (DBM) for heliospheric propagation of CMEs. DBM relies on the observational fact that slow CMEs accelerate whereas fast CMEs decelerate, and is based on the concept of MHD drag, which acts to adjust the CME speed to the ambient solar wind. Although physically DBM is applicable only to the CME magnetic structure, it is often used as a proxy for the shock arrival. In recent years, the DBM equation has been used in many studies to describe the propagation of CMEs and shocks with different geometries and assumptions. Here we give an overview of the five DBM versions currently available and their respective tools, developed at Hvar Observatory and frequently used by researchers and forecasters. These include: 1) basic 1D DBM, a 1D model describing the propagation of a single point (i.e. the apex of the CME) or concentric arc (where all points propagate identically); 2) advanced 2D self-similar cone DBM, a 2D model which combines basic DBM and cone geometry describing the propagation of the CME leading edge which evolves self-similarly; 3) 2D flattening cone DBM, a 2D model which combines basic DBM and cone geometry describing the propagation of the CME leading edge which does not evolve self-similarly; 4) DBEM, an ensemble version of the 2D flattening cone DBM which uses CME ensembles as an input and 5) DBEMv3, an ensemble version of the 2D flattening cone DBM which creates CME ensembles based on the input uncertainties. All five versions have been tested and published in recent years and are available online or upon request. We provide an overview of these five tools, of their similarities and differences, as well as discuss and demonstrate their application.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

Propagating Conditions and the Time of ICMEs Arrival: A Comparison of the Effective Acceleration Model with ENLIL and DBEM Models

The Effective Acceleration Model (EAM) predicts the Time-of-Arrival (ToA) of the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) driven shock and the average speed within the sheath at 1 AU. The model is based on the assumption that the ambient solar wind interacts with the interplanetary CME (ICME) resulting in constant acceleration or deceleration. The upgraded version of the model (EAMv3), presented here, incorporates two basic improvements: (a) a new technique for the calculation of the acceleration (or deceleration) of the ICME from the Sun to 1 AU and (b) a correction for the CME plane-of-sky speed. A validation of the upgraded EAM model is performed via comparisons to predictions from the ensemble version of the Drag-Based model (DBEM) and the WSA-ENLIL+Cone ensemble model. A common sample of 16 CMEs/ICMEs, in 2013-2014, is used for the comparison. Basic performance metrics such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean error (ME) and root mean squared error (RMSE) between observed and predicted values of ToA are presented. MAE for EAM model was 8.7$\pm$1.6 hours while for DBEM and ENLIL was 14.3$\pm$2.2 and 12.8$\pm$1.7 hours, respectively. ME for EAM was -1.4$\pm$2.7 hours in contrast with -9.7$\pm$3.4 and -6.1$\pm$3.3 hours from DBEM and ENLIL. We also study the hypothesis of stronger deceleration in the interplanetary (IP) space utilizing the EAMv3 and DBEM models. In particularly, the DBEM model perform better when a greater value of drag parameter, of order of a factor of 3, is used in contrast to previous studies. EAMv3 model shows a deceleration of ICMEs at greater distances, with a mean value of 0.72 AU.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2020

Solar Flare-CME Coupling Throughout Two Acceleration Phases of a Fast CME

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are closely coupled through magnetic reconnection. CMEs are usually accelerated impulsively within the low solar corona, synchronized with the impulsive flare energy release. We investigate the dynamic evolution of a fast CME and its associated X2.8 flare occurring on 2013 May 13. The CME experiences two distinct phases of enhanced acceleration, an impulsive one with a peak value of ~5 km s$^{-2}$ followed by an extended phase with accelerations up to 0.7 km s$^{-2}$. The two-phase CME dynamics is associated with a two-episode flare energy release. While the first episode is consistent with the "standard" eruption of a magnetic flux rope, the second episode of flare energy release is initiated by the reconnection of a large-scale loop in the aftermath of the eruption and produces stronger nonthermal emission up to $γ$-rays. In addition, this long-duration flare reveals clear signs of ongoing magnetic reconnection during the decay phase, evidenced by extended HXR bursts with energies up to 100--300 keV and intermittent downflows of reconnected loops for >4 hours. The observations reveal that the two-step flare reconnection substantially contributes to the two-phase CME acceleration, and the impulsive CME acceleration precedes the most intense flare energy release. The implications of this non-standard flare/CME observation are discussed.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2019

Unusual plasma and particle signatures at Mars and STEREO-A related to CME-CME interaction

On July 25 2017 a multi-step Forbush decrease (FD) with the remarkable total amplitude of more than 15\% was observed by MSL/RAD at Mars. We find that these particle signatures are related to very pronounced plasma and magnetic field signatures detected in situ by STEREO-A on July 24 2017, with a higher than average total magnetic field strength reaching more than 60 nT. In the observed time period STEREO-A was at a relatively small longitudinal separation (46 degrees) to Mars and both were located at the back side of the Sun as viewed from Earth. We analyse a number of multi-spacecraft and multi-instrument (both in situ and remote-sensing) observations, and employ modelling to understand these signatures. We find that the solar sources are two CMEs which erupted on July 23 2017 from the same source region on the back side of the Sun as viewed from Earth. Moreover, we find that the two CMEs interact non-uniformly, inhibiting the expansion of one of the CMEs in STEREO-A direction, whereas allowing it to expand more freely in the Mars direction. The interaction of the two CMEs with the ambient solar wind adds up to the complexity of the event, resulting in a long, sub-structured interplanetary disturbance at Mars, where different sub-structures correspond to different steps of the FD, adding-up to a globally large-amplitude FD.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2018

Forecasting the Arrival Time of Coronal Mass Ejections: Analysis of the CCMC CME Scoreboard

Accurate forecasting of the properties of coronal mass ejections as they approach Earth is now recognized as an important strategic objective for both NOAA and NASA. The time of arrival of such events is a key parameter, one that had been anticipated to be relatively straightforward to constrain. In this study, we analyze forecasts submitted to the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center over the last six years to answer the following questions: (1) How well do these models forecast the arrival time of CME-driven shocks? (2) What are the uncertainties associated with these forecasts? (3) Which model(s) perform best? (4) Have the models become more accurate during the past six years? We analyze all forecasts made by 32 models from 2013 through mid 2018, and additionally focus on 28 events all of which were forecasted by six models. We find that the models are generally able to predict CME-shock arrival times -- in an average sense -- to within 10 hours, but with standard deviations often exceeding 20 hours. The best performers, on the other hand, maintained a mean error (bias) of -1 hour, a mean absolute error of 13 hours, and a precision (s.d.) of 15 hours. Finally, there is no evidence that the forecasts have become more accurate during this interval. We discuss the intrinsic simplifications of the various models analyzed, the limitations of this investigation, and suggest possible paths to improve these forecasts in the future.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2015

Forbush Decrease Prediction Based on the Remote Solar Observations

We employ remote observations of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and the associated solar flares to forecast the CME-related Forbush decreases, i.e., short-term depressions in the galactic cosmic-ray flux. The relationship between the Forbush effect at the Earth and remote observations of CMEs and associated solar flares is studied via a statistical analysis. Relationships between Forbush decrease magnitude and several CME/flare parameters was found, namely the initial CME speed, apparent width, source position, associated solar-flare class and the effect of successive-CME occurrence. Based on the statistical analysis, remote solar observations are employed for a Forbush-decrease forecast. For that purpose, an empirical probabilistic model is constructed that uses selected remote solar observations of CME and associated solar flare as an input, and gives expected Forbush-decrease magnitude range as an output. The forecast method is evaluated using several verification measures, indicating that as the forecast tends to be more specific it is less reliable, which is its main drawback. However, the advantages of the method are that it provides early prediction, and that the input is not necessarily spacecraft-dependent.

astro-ph.SR↗