arXiv subjects
Publications and source records attributed to Mathias Trabs.
We consider the stochastic heat equation whose solution is observed discretely in space and time. An asymptotic analysis of power variations is presented including the proof of a central limit theorem. It generalizes the theory from arXiv:1710.03519 in several directions.
To take sample biases and skewness in the observations into account, practitioners frequently weight their observations according to some marginal distribution. The present paper demonstrates that such weighting can indeed improve the estimation. Studying contingency tables, estimators for marginal distributions are proposed under the assumption that another marginal is known. It is shown that the weighted estimators have a strictly smaller asymptotic variance whenever the two marginals are correlated. The finite sample performance is illustrated in a simulation study. As an application to traffic accident data the method allows for correcting a well-known bias in the observed injury severity distribution.
We consider the Bayesian approach to linear inverse problems when the underlying operator depends on an unknown parameter. Allowing for finite dimensional as well as infinite dimensional parameters, the theory covers several models with different levels of uncertainty in the operator. Using product priors, we prove contraction rates for the posterior distribution which coincide with the optimal convergence rates up to logarithmic factors. In order to adapt to the unknown smoothness, an empirical Bayes procedure is constructed based on Lepski's method. The procedure is illustrated in numerical examples.
We study the estimation of the covariance matrix $Σ$ of a $p$-dimensional normal random vector based on $n$ independent observations corrupted by additive noise. Only a general nonparametric assumption is imposed on the distribution of the noise without any sparsity constraint on its covariance matrix. In this high-dimensional semiparametric deconvolution problem, we propose spectral thresholding estimators that are adaptive to the sparsity of $Σ$. We establish an oracle inequality for these estimators under model miss-specification and derive non-asymptotic minimax convergence rates that are shown to be logarithmic in $n/\log p$. We also discuss the estimation of low-rank matrices based on indirect observations as well as the generalization to elliptical distributions. The finite sample performance of the threshold estimators is illustrated in a numerical example.
The estimation of the diffusion matrix $Σ$ of a high-dimensional, possibly time-changed Lévy process is studied, based on discrete observations of the process with a fixed distance. A low-rank condition is imposed on $Σ$. Applying a spectral approach, we construct a weighted least-squares estimator with nuclear-norm-penalisation. We prove oracle inequalities and derive convergence rates for the diffusion matrix estimator. The convergence rates show a surprising dependency on the rank of $Σ$ and are optimal in the minimax sense for fixed dimensions. Theoretical results are illustrated by a simulation study.
As a starting point we prove a functional central limit theorem for estimators of the invariant measure of a geometrically ergodic Harris-recurrent Markov chain in a multi-scale space. This allows to construct confidence bands for the invariant density with optimal (up to undersmoothing) $L^{\infty}$-diameter by using wavelet projection estimators. In addition our setting applies to the drift estimation of diffusions observed discretely with fixed observation distance. We prove a functional central limit theorem for estimators of the drift function and finally construct adaptive confidence bands for the drift by using a completely data-driven estimator.
Quantile estimation in deconvolution problems is studied comprehensively. In particular, the more realistic setup of unknown error distributions is covered. Our plug-in method is based on a deconvolution density estimator and is minimax optimal under minimal and natural conditions. This closes an important gap in the literature. Optimal adaptive estimation is obtained by a data-driven bandwidth choice. As a side result, we obtain optimal rates for the plug-in estimation of distribution functions with unknown error distributions. The method is applied to a real data example.
The nonparametric estimation of the volatility and the drift coefficient of a scalar diffusion is studied when the process is observed at random time points. The constructed estimator generalizes the spectral method by Gobet, Hoffmann and Reiß [Ann. Statist. 32 (2006), 2223-2253]. The estimation procedure is optimal in the minimax sense and adaptive with respect to the sampling time distribution and the regularity of the coefficients. The proofs are based on the eigenvalue problem for the generalized transition operator. The finite sample performance is illustrated in a numerical example.
Rough differential equations are solved for signals in general Besov spaces unifying in particular the known results in Hölder and p-variation topology. To this end the paracontrolled distribution approach, which has been introduced by Gubinelli, Imkeller and Perkowski ["Paracontrolled distribution and singular PDEs", Forum of Mathematics, Pi (2015)] to analyze singular stochastic PDEs, is extended from Hölder to Besov spaces. As an application we solve stochastic differential equations driven by random functions in Besov spaces and Gaussian processes in a pathwise sense.
Generalizing the concept of quantiles to the jump measure of a Lévy process, the generalized quantiles $q_τ^{\pm}>0$, for $τ>0$, are given by the smallest values such that a jump larger than $q_τ^{+}$ or a negative jump smaller than $-q_τ^{-}$, respectively, is expected only once in $1/τ$ time units. Nonparametric estimators of the generalized quantiles are constructed using either discrete observations of the process or using option prices in an exponential Lévy model of asset prices. In both models minimax convergence rates are shown. Applying Lepski's approach, we derive adaptive quantile estimators. The performance of the estimation method is illustrated in simulations and with real data.
Donsker-type functional limit theorems are proved for empirical processes arising from discretely sampled increments of a univariate Lévy process. In the asymptotic regime the sampling frequencies increase to infinity and the limiting object is a Gaussian process that can be obtained from the composition of a Brownian motion with a covariance operator determined by the Lévy measure. The results are applied to derive the asymptotic distribution of natural estimators for the distribution function of the Lévy jump measure. As an application we deduce Kolmogorov-Smirnov type tests and confidence bands.
We provide necessary and sufficient conditions on the characteristics of an infinitely divisible distribution under which its characteristic function $ϕ$ decays polynomially. Under a mild regularity condition this polynomial decay is equivalent to $1/ϕ$ being a Fourier multiplier on Besov spaces.
If a functional in an inverse problem can be estimated with parametric rate, then the minimax rate gives no information about the ill-posedness of the problem. To have a more precise lower bound, we study semiparametric efficiency in the sense of Hájek-Le Cam for functional estimation in regular indirect models. These are characterized as models that can be locally approximated by a linear white noise model that is described by the generalized score operator. A convolution theorem for regular indirect models is proved. This applies to a large class of statistical inverse problems, which is illustrated for the prototypical white noise and deconvolution model. It is especially useful for nonlinear models. We discuss in detail a nonlinear model of deconvolution type where a Lévy process is observed at low frequency, concluding an information bound for the estimation of linear functionals of the jump measure.
We study the nonparametric calibration of exponential Lévy models with infinite jump activity. In particular our analysis applies to self-decomposable processes whose jump density can be characterized by the $k$-function, which is typically nonsmooth at zero. On the one hand the estimation of the drift, of the activity measure $α:=k(0+)+k(0-)$ and of analogous parameters for the derivatives of the $k$-function are considered and on the other hand we estimate nonparametrically the $k$-function. Minimax convergence rates are derived. Since the rates depend on $α$, we construct estimators adapting to this unknown parameter. Our estimation method is based on spectral representations of the observed option prices and on a regularization by cutting off high frequencies. Finally, the procedure is applied to simulations and real data.
Observing prices of European put and call options, we calibrate exponential Lévy models nonparametrically. We discuss the efficient implementation of the spectral estimation procedures for Lévy models of finite jump activity as well as for self-decomposable Lévy models. Based on finite sample variances, confidence intervals are constructed for the volatility, for the drift and, pointwise, for the jump density. As demonstrated by simulations, these intervals perform well in terms of size and coverage probabilities. We compare the performance of the procedures for finite and infinite jump activity based on options on the German DAX index and find that both methods achieve good calibration results. The stability of the finite activity model is studied when the option prices are observed in a sequence of trading days.
We estimate linear functionals in the classical deconvolution problem by kernel estimators. We obtain a uniform central limit theorem with $\sqrt{n}$-rate on the assumption that the smoothness of the functionals is larger than the ill-posedness of the problem, which is given by the polynomial decay rate of the characteristic function of the error. The limit distribution is a generalized Brownian bridge with a covariance structure that depends on the characteristic function of the error and on the functionals. The proposed estimators are optimal in the sense of semiparametric efficiency. The class of linear functionals is wide enough to incorporate the estimation of distribution functions. The proofs are based on smoothed empirical processes and mapping properties of the deconvolution operator.