arXiv subjects

Matias Valdenegro-Toro

Publications and source records attributed to Matias Valdenegro-Toro.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Uncertainty Quantification in Machine Learning for Biosignal Applications -- A Review

Purpose: Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) has gained traction in an attempt to improve the interpretability and robustness of machine learning predictions. Specifically (medical) biosignals such as electroencephalography (EEG), electrocardiography (ECG), electrooculography (EOG), and electromyography (EMG) could benefit from good UQ, since these suffer from a poor signal-to-noise ratio, and good human interpretability is pivotal for medical applications. To determine how uncertainty estimation can be used for biosignal tasks, we investigate current methods, use cases, applications, evaluations, and uncertainty measures. Methods: In this paper, we systematically review the state of the art of applying Uncertainty Quantification to Machine Learning tasks in the biosignal domain. All works from Web of Science, Scopus, IEEE XPlore and PsycINFO that discuss uncertainty in Machine Learning on one of the aforementioned biosignals is included. Results: We present various methods, shortcomings, uncertainty measures and theoretical frameworks that currently exist in this application domain based on the 53 reviewed papers and related literature. We address misconceptions in the field, provide recommendations for future work, and discuss gaps in the literature in relation to diagnostic implementations as well as control for prostheses or brain-computer interfaces. Conclusion: Overall it can be concluded that promising UQ methods are available, but that research is needed on how people and systems may interact with an uncertainty-model in a (clinical) environment.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2026

Uncertainty Identifies Difficult Samples Across Methods: A Multi-Task Study on a Heterogeneous Skin Lesion Dataset

Skin lesion classifiers can be confidently wrong on the cases that matter most, so knowing when a prediction should not be trusted is clinically as useful as the prediction. We study uncertainty quantification on a dataset pooled from many ISIC sources, with a shared backbone and two jointly learned heads: a binary malignant versus non-malignant head and a five-class diagnostic head. Five UQ methods (MC Dropout, DropConnect, Flipout, Deep Ensembles, DUQ) are compared on accuracy, calibration, uncertainty decomposition, and risk-coverage. Difficulty is largely method-agnostic: even methods with narrow entropy distributions rank the same samples as hard (per-sample entropy correlations of $0.54$ to $0.91$). The choice of method matters more for calibration and uncertainty decomposition, where Deep Ensembles is the clear winner, than for finding difficult cases. The ranking is also good enough that deferring the most uncertain cases removes a disproportionate share of errors, supporting uncertainty-based selective referral, evaluated here in-distribution only.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Disentangling Model and Human Data Uncertainty in Apparent Facial Age Estimation

Estimating the apparent age of individuals from facial images is challenging due to the subjective nature of perception and the inherent variability of the data. We investigate the role of uncertainty estimation, attributing uncertainty jointly to a lack of knowledge (epistemic) or inherent noise/chance (aleatoric). Leveraging the APPA-REAL dataset, we train Bayesian Neural Networks on datasets of varying sizes using three BNN approximations: MC-DropConnect, Flipout, and Deep Ensembles using supervision on human aleatoric uncertainty available in the APPA-REAL dataset. Each model outputs both the predicted apparent age and the amount of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. Our results confirm the hypothesis that the inherent aleatoric uncertainty remains stable across dataset sizes, while epistemic uncertainty increases as training data decreases. These findings demonstrate that different sources of uncertainty can be quantified in face age estimation.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

YieldSAT: A Multimodal Benchmark Dataset for High-Resolution Crop Yield Prediction

Crop yield prediction requires substantial data to train scalable models. However, creating yield prediction datasets is constrained by high acquisition costs, heterogeneous data quality, and data privacy regulations. Consequently, existing datasets are scarce, low in quality, or limited to regional levels or single crop types, hindering the development of scalable data-driven solutions. In this work, we release YieldSAT, a large, high-quality, and multimodal dataset for high-resolution crop yield prediction. YieldSAT spans various climate zones across multiple countries, including Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, and Germany, and includes major crop types, including corn, rapeseed, soybeans, and wheat, across 2,173 expert-curated fields. In total, over 12.2 million yield samples are available, each with a spatial resolution of 10 m. Each field is paired with multispectral satellite imagery, resulting in 113,555 labeled satellite images, complemented by auxiliary environmental data. We demonstrate the potential of large-scale and high-resolution crop yield prediction as a pixel regression task by comparing various deep learning models and data fusion architectures. Furthermore, we highlight open challenges arising from severe distribution shifts in the ground truth data under real-world conditions. To mitigate this, we explore a domain-informed Deep Ensemble approach that exhibits significant performance gains. The dataset is available at https://yieldsat.github.io/.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

The Challenge of Out-Of-Distribution Detection in Motor Imagery BCIs

Machine Learning classifiers used in Brain-Computer Interfaces make classifications based on the distribution of data they were trained on. When they need to make inferences on samples that fall outside of this distribution, they can only make blind guesses. Instead of allowing random guesses, these Out-of-Distribution (OOD) samples should be detected and rejected. We study OOD detection in Motor Imagery BCIs by training a model on some classes and observing whether unfamiliar classes can be detected based on increased uncertainty. We test seven different OOD detection techniques and one more method that has been claimed to boost the quality of OOD detection. Our findings show that OOD detection for Brain-Computer Interfaces is more challenging than in other machine learning domains due to the high uncertainty inherent in classifying EEG signals. For many subjects, uncertainty for in-distribution classes can still be higher than for out-of-distribution classes. As a result, many OOD detection methods prove to be ineffective, though MC Dropout performed best. Additionally, we show that high in-distribution classification performance predicts high OOD detection performance, suggesting that improved accuracy can also lead to improved robustness. Our research demonstrates a setup for studying how models deal with unfamiliar EEG data and evaluates methods that are robust to these unfamiliar inputs. OOD detection can improve the overall safety and reliability of BCIs.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Measuring Orthogonality as the Blind-Spot of Uncertainty Disentanglement

Aleatoric (data) and epistemic (knowledge) uncertainty are textbook components of Uncertainty Quantification. Jointly estimating these components has been shown to be problematic and non-trivial. As a result, there are multiple ways to disentangle these uncertainties, but current methods to evaluate them are insufficient. We propose that aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty estimates should be orthogonally disentangled - meaning that each uncertainty is not affected by the other - a necessary condition that is often not met. We prove that orthogonality and consistency and necessary and sufficient criteria for disentanglement, and construct Uncertainty Disentanglement Error as a metric to measure these criteria, with further empirical evaluation showing that finetuned models give different orthogonality results than models trained from scratch and that UDE can be optimized for through dropout rate. We demonstrate a Deep Ensemble trained from scratch on ImageNet-1k with Information Theoretic disentangling achieves consistent and orthogonal estimates of epistemic uncertainty, but estimates of aleatoric uncertainty still fail on orthogonality.

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arXiv2025

NLP Methods May Actually Be Better Than Professors at Estimating Question Difficulty

Estimating the difficulty of exam questions is essential for developing good exams, but professors are not always good at this task. We compare various Large Language Model-based methods with three professors in their ability to estimate what percentage of students will give correct answers on True/False exam questions in the areas of Neural Networks and Machine Learning. Our results show that the professors have limited ability to distinguish between easy and difficult questions and that they are outperformed by directly asking Gemini 2.5 to solve this task. Yet, we obtained even better results using uncertainties of the LLMs solving the questions in a supervised learning setting, using only 42 training samples. We conclude that supervised learning using LLM uncertainty can help professors better estimate the difficulty of exam questions, improving the quality of assessment.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Confidence Calibration in Large Language Model-Based Entity Matching

This research aims to explore the intersection of Large Language Models and confidence calibration in Entity Matching. To this end, we perform an empirical study to compare baseline RoBERTa confidences for an Entity Matching task against confidences that are calibrated using Temperature Scaling, Monte Carlo Dropout and Ensembles. We use the Abt-Buy, DBLP-ACM, iTunes-Amazon and Company datasets. The findings indicate that the proposed modified RoBERTa model exhibits a slight overconfidence, with Expected Calibration Error scores ranging from 0.0043 to 0.0552 across datasets. We find that this overconfidence can be mitigated using Temperature Scaling, reducing Expected Calibration Error scores by up to 23.83%.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Uncertainty in Semantic Language Modeling with PIXELS

Pixel-based language models aim to solve the vocabulary bottleneck problem in language modeling, but the challenge of uncertainty quantification remains open. The novelty of this work consists of analysing uncertainty and confidence in pixel-based language models across 18 languages and 7 scripts, all part of 3 semantically challenging tasks. This is achieved through several methods such as Monte Carlo Dropout, Transformer Attention, and Ensemble Learning. The results suggest that pixel-based models underestimate uncertainty when reconstructing patches. The uncertainty is also influenced by the script, with Latin languages displaying lower uncertainty. The findings on ensemble learning show better performance when applying hyperparameter tuning during the named entity recognition and question-answering tasks across 16 languages.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Uncertainty Quantification for Motor Imagery BCI -- Machine Learning vs. Deep Learning

Brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) turn brain signals into functionally useful output, but they are not always accurate. A good Machine Learning classifier should be able to indicate how confident it is about a given classification, by giving a probability for its classification. Standard classifiers for Motor Imagery BCIs do give such probabilities, but research on uncertainty quantification has been limited to Deep Learning. We compare the uncertainty quantification ability of established BCI classifiers using Common Spatial Patterns (CSP-LDA) and Riemannian Geometry (MDRM) to specialized methods in Deep Learning (Deep Ensembles and Direct Uncertainty Quantification) as well as standard Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs). We found that the overconfidence typically seen in Deep Learning is not a problem in CSP-LDA and MDRM. We found that MDRM is underconfident, which we solved by adding Temperature Scaling (MDRM-T). CSP-LDA and MDRM-T give the best uncertainty estimates, but Deep Ensembles and standard CNNs give the best classifications. We show that all models are able to separate between easy and difficult estimates, so that we can increase the accuracy of a Motor Imagery BCI by rejecting samples that are ambiguous.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Overcoming Data Scarcity in Multi-Dialectal Arabic ASR via Whisper Fine-Tuning

Although commercial Arabic automatic speech recognition (ASR) systems support Modern Standard Arabic (MSA), they struggle with dialectal speech. We investigate the effect of fine-tuning OpenAI's Whisper on five major Arabic dialects (Gulf, Levantine, Iraqi, Egyptian, Maghrebi) using Mozilla Common Voice for MSA and the MASC dataset for dialectal speech. We evaluate MSA training size effects, benefits of pre-training on MSA data, and dialect-specific versus dialect-pooled models. We find that small amounts of MSA fine-tuning data yield substantial improvements for smaller models, matching larger non-fine-tuned models. While MSA pre-training shows minimal benefit, suggesting limited shared features between MSA and dialects, our dialect-pooled models perform comparably to dialect-specific ones. This indicates that pooling dialectal data, when properly balanced, can help address data scarcity in low-resource ASR without significant performance loss.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Large-image Object Detection for Fine-grained Recognition of Punches Patterns in Medieval Panel Painting

The attribution of the author of an art piece is typically a laborious manual process, usually relying on subjective evaluations of expert figures. However, there are some situations in which quantitative features of the artwork can support these evaluations. The extraction of these features can sometimes be automated, for instance, with the use of Machine Learning (ML) techniques. An example of these features is represented by repeated, mechanically impressed patterns, called punches, present chiefly in 13th and 14th-century panel paintings from Tuscany. Previous research in art history showcased a strong connection between the shapes of punches and specific artists or workshops, suggesting the possibility of using these quantitative cues to support the attribution. In the present work, we first collect a dataset of large-scale images of these panel paintings. Then, using YOLOv10, a recent and popular object detection model, we train a ML pipeline to perform object detection on the punches contained in the images. Due to the large size of the images, the detection procedure is split across multiple frames by adopting a sliding-window approach with overlaps, after which the predictions are combined for the whole image using a custom non-maximal suppression routine. Our results indicate how art historians working in the field can reliably use our method for the identification and extraction of punches.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

Uncertainty Quantification for Gradient-based Explanations in Neural Networks

Explanation methods help understand the reasons for a model's prediction. These methods are increasingly involved in model debugging, performance optimization, and gaining insights into the workings of a model. With such critical applications of these methods, it is imperative to measure the uncertainty associated with the explanations generated by these methods. In this paper, we propose a pipeline to ascertain the explanation uncertainty of neural networks by combining uncertainty estimation methods and explanation methods. We use this pipeline to produce explanation distributions for the CIFAR-10, FER+, and California Housing datasets. By computing the coefficient of variation of these distributions, we evaluate the confidence in the explanation and determine that the explanations generated using Guided Backpropagation have low uncertainty associated with them. Additionally, we compute modified pixel insertion/deletion metrics to evaluate the quality of the generated explanations.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Modeling of AUV Dynamics with Limited Resources: Efficient Online Learning Using Uncertainty

Machine learning proves effective in constructing dynamics models from data, especially for underwater vehicles. Continuous refinement of these models using incoming data streams, however, often requires storage of an overwhelming amount of redundant data. This work investigates the use of uncertainty in the selection of data points to rehearse in online learning when storage capacity is constrained. The models are learned using an ensemble of multilayer perceptrons as they perform well at predicting epistemic uncertainty. We present three novel approaches: the Threshold method, which excludes samples with uncertainty below a specified threshold, the Greedy method, designed to maximize uncertainty among the stored points, and Threshold-Greedy, which combines the previous two approaches. The methods are assessed on data collected by an underwater vehicle Dagon. Comparison with baselines reveals that the Threshold exhibits enhanced stability throughout the learning process and also yields a model with the least cumulative testing loss. We also conducted detailed analyses on the impact of model parameters and storage size on the performance of the models, as well as a comparison of three different uncertainty estimation methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Know What You do Not Know: Verbalized Uncertainty Estimation Robustness on Corrupted Images in Vision-Language Models

To leverage the full potential of Large Language Models (LLMs) it is crucial to have some information on their answers' uncertainty. This means that the model has to be able to quantify how certain it is in the correctness of a given response. Bad uncertainty estimates can lead to overconfident wrong answers undermining trust in these models. Quite a lot of research has been done on language models that work with text inputs and provide text outputs. Still, since the visual capabilities have been added to these models recently, there has not been much progress on the uncertainty of Visual Language Models (VLMs). We tested three state-of-the-art VLMs on corrupted image data. We found that the severity of the corruption negatively impacted the models' ability to estimate their uncertainty and the models also showed overconfidence in most of the experiments.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

The Marine Debris Forward-Looking Sonar Datasets

Sonar sensing is fundamental for underwater robotics, but limited by capabilities of AI systems, which need large training datasets. Public data in sonar modalities is lacking. This paper presents the Marine Debris Forward-Looking Sonar datasets, with three different settings (watertank, turntable, flooded quarry) increasing dataset diversity and multiple computer vision tasks: object classification, object detection, semantic segmentation, patch matching, and unsupervised learning. We provide full dataset description, basic analysis and initial results for some tasks. We expect the research community will benefit from this dataset, which is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15101686

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

Can Bayesian Neural Networks Explicitly Model Input Uncertainty?

Inputs to machine learning models can have associated noise or uncertainties, but they are often ignored and not modelled. It is unknown if Bayesian Neural Networks and their approximations are able to consider uncertainty in their inputs. In this paper we build a two input Bayesian Neural Network (mean and standard deviation) and evaluate its capabilities for input uncertainty estimation across different methods like Ensembles, MC-Dropout, and Flipout. Our results indicate that only some uncertainty estimation methods for approximate Bayesian NNs can model input uncertainty, in particular Ensembles and Flipout.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Adaptive Prompt Tuning: Vision Guided Prompt Tuning with Cross-Attention for Fine-Grained Few-Shot Learning

Few-shot, fine-grained classification in computer vision poses significant challenges due to the need to differentiate subtle class distinctions with limited data. This paper presents a novel method that enhances the Contrastive Language-Image Pre-Training (CLIP) model through adaptive prompt tuning, guided by real-time visual inputs. Unlike existing techniques such as Context Optimization (CoOp) and Visual Prompt Tuning (VPT), which are constrained by static prompts or visual token reliance, the proposed approach leverages a cross-attention mechanism to dynamically refine text prompts for the image at hand. This enables an image-specific alignment of textual features with image patches extracted from the Vision Transformer, making the model more effective for datasets with high intra-class variance and low inter-class differences. The method is evaluated on several datasets, including CUBirds, Oxford Flowers, and FGVC Aircraft, showing significant performance gains over static prompt tuning approaches. To ensure these performance gains translate into trustworthy predictions, we integrate Monte-Carlo Dropout in our approach to improve the reliability of the model predictions and uncertainty estimates. This integration provides valuable insights into the model's predictive confidence, helping to identify when predictions can be trusted and when additional verification is necessary. This dynamic approach offers a robust solution, advancing the state-of-the-art for few-shot fine-grained classification.

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