arXiv subjects

Matt J. Kusner

Publications and source records attributed to Matt J. Kusner.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Plausible Deniability Guarantees for Whistleblowers

Whistleblowers are a key safeguard against organizational wrongdoing, but the threat of retaliation deters reporting. Existing whistleblower-protection proposals lack formal privacy guarantees, and existing differential privacy mechanisms do not directly target the natural threat model -- one in which the audited organization itself observes auditor selection decisions and uses them to identify reporters. We formalize protection against a strong-adversary threat model as per-report $(0, δ)$-differential privacy on the transcript of audit selections. Within this framework we prove that a natural approach -- randomized response applied at the selection step -- can never outperform uniform random auditing by more than $δ$ at any horizon. We then give a generic mechanism that reduces private auditing to private continual counting: any $(0, δ)$-DP continual counter plugs in by post-processing, and the audit transcript inherits the same per-report guarantee. Instantiating the reduction with a recent work in continual counting yields per-report $(0, δ)$-DP with noise scaling as $O(\sqrt{\log T})$ across a horizon of $T$ audit decisions. A utility theorem shows that the selection error vanishes whenever the noisy report gap between the most-reported organization and the runner-up grows faster than $\sqrt{\log T}$. Simulations show a substantial improvement over randomized response.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2026

Causal Machine Learning: A Survey and Open Problems

Causal Machine Learning (CausalML) is an umbrella term for machine learning methods that formalize the data-generation process as a structural causal model (SCM). This perspective enables us to reason about the effects of changes to this process (interventions) and what would have happened in hindsight (counterfactuals). We categorize work in CausalML into five groups according to the problems they address: (1) causal supervised learning, (2) causal generative modeling, (3) causal explanations, (4) causal fairness, and (5) causal reinforcement learning. We systematically compare the methods in each category and point out open problems. Further, we review data-modality-specific applications in computer vision, natural language processing, and graph representation learning. Finally, we provide an overview of causal benchmarks and a critical discussion of the state of this nascent field, including recommendations for future work.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Learning Physical Operators using Neural Operators

Neural operators have emerged as promising surrogate models for solving partial differential equations (PDEs), but struggle to generalise beyond training distributions and are often constrained to a fixed temporal discretisation. This work introduces a physics-informed training framework that addresses these limitations by decomposing PDEs using operator splitting methods, training separate neural operators to learn individual non-linear physical operators while approximating linear operators with fixed finite-difference convolutions. This modular mixture-of-experts architecture enables generalisation to novel physical regimes by explicitly encoding the underlying operator structure. We formulate the modelling task as a neural ordinary differential equation (ODE) where these learned operators constitute the right-hand side, enabling continuous-in-time predictions through standard ODE solvers and implicitly enforcing PDE constraints. Demonstrated on incompressible and compressible Navier--Stokes equations, our approach achieves better convergence and superior performance when generalising to unseen physics. The method remains parameter-efficient, enabling temporal extrapolation beyond training horizons, and provides interpretable components whose behaviour can be verified against known physics.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Agentic Uncertainty Reveals Agentic Overconfidence

Can AI agents predict whether they will succeed at a task? We study agentic uncertainty by eliciting success probability estimates before, during, and after task execution. All results exhibit agentic overconfidence: some agents that succeed only 22% of the time predict 77% success. Counterintuitively, pre-execution assessment with strictly less information tends to yield better discrimination than standard post-execution review, though differences are not always significant. Adversarial prompting reframing assessment as bug-finding achieves the best calibration.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Uncertainty Quantification of Surrogate Models using Conformal Prediction

Data-driven surrogate models offer quick approximations to complex numerical and experimental systems but typically lack uncertainty quantification, limiting their reliability in safety-critical applications. While Bayesian methods provide uncertainty estimates, they offer no statistical guarantees and struggle with high-dimensional spatio-temporal problems due to computational costs. We present a conformal prediction (CP) framework that provides statistically guaranteed marginal coverage for surrogate models in a model-agnostic manner with near-zero computational cost. Our approach handles high-dimensional spatio-temporal outputs by performing cell-wise calibration while preserving the tensorial structure of predictions. Through extensive empirical evaluation across diverse applications including fluid dynamics, magnetohydrodynamics, weather forecasting, and fusion diagnostics, we demonstrate that CP achieves empirical coverage with valid error bars regardless of model architecture, training regime, or output dimensionality. We evaluate three nonconformity scores (conformalised quantile regression, absolute error residual, and standard deviation) for both deterministic and probabilistic models, showing that guaranteed coverage holds even for out-of-distribution predictions where models are deployed on physics regimes different from training data. Calibration requires only seconds to minutes on standard hardware. The framework enables rigorous validation of pre-trained surrogate models for downstream applications without retraining. While CP provides marginal rather than conditional coverage and assumes exchangeability between calibration and test data, our method circumvents the curse of dimensionality inherent in traditional uncertainty quantification approaches, offering a practical tool for trustworthy deployment of machine learning in physical sciences.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

An Auditing Test To Detect Behavioral Shift in Language Models

As language models (LMs) approach human-level performance, a comprehensive understanding of their behavior becomes crucial. This includes evaluating capabilities, biases, task performance, and alignment with societal values. Extensive initial evaluations, including red teaming and diverse benchmarking, can establish a model's behavioral profile. However, subsequent fine-tuning or deployment modifications may alter these behaviors in unintended ways. We present a method for continual Behavioral Shift Auditing (BSA) in LMs. Building on recent work in hypothesis testing, our auditing test detects behavioral shifts solely through model generations. Our test compares model generations from a baseline model to those of the model under scrutiny and provides theoretical guarantees for change detection while controlling false positives. The test features a configurable tolerance parameter that adjusts sensitivity to behavioral changes for different use cases. We evaluate our approach using two case studies: monitoring changes in (a) toxicity and (b) translation performance. We find that the test is able to detect meaningful changes in behavior distributions using just hundreds of examples.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Calibrated Physics-Informed Uncertainty Quantification

Simulating complex physical systems is crucial for understanding and predicting phenomena across diverse fields, such as fluid dynamics and heat transfer, as well as plasma physics and structural mechanics. Traditional approaches rely on solving partial differential equations (PDEs) using numerical methods, which are computationally expensive and often prohibitively slow for real-time applications or large-scale simulations. Neural PDEs have emerged as efficient alternatives to these costly numerical solvers, offering significant computational speed-ups. However, their lack of robust uncertainty quantification (UQ) limits deployment in critical applications. We introduce a model-agnostic, physics-informed conformal prediction (CP) framework that provides guaranteed uncertainty estimates without requiring labelled data. By utilising a physics-based approach, we can quantify and calibrate the model's inconsistencies with the physics rather than the uncertainty arising from the data. Our approach utilises convolutional layers as finite-difference stencils and leverages physics residual errors as nonconformity scores, enabling data-free UQ with marginal and joint coverage guarantees across prediction domains for a range of complex PDEs. We further validate the efficacy of our method on neural PDE models for plasma modelling and shot design in fusion reactors.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

When Can Proxies Improve the Sample Complexity of Preference Learning?

We address the problem of reward hacking, where maximising a proxy reward does not necessarily increase the true reward. This is a key concern for Large Language Models (LLMs), as they are often fine-tuned on human preferences that may not accurately reflect a true objective. Existing work uses various tricks such as regularisation, tweaks to the reward model, and reward hacking detectors, to limit the influence that such proxy preferences have on a model. Luckily, in many contexts such as medicine, education, and law, a sparse amount of expert data is often available. In these cases, it is often unclear whether the addition of proxy data can improve policy learning. We outline a set of sufficient conditions on proxy feedback that, if satisfied, indicate that proxy data can provably improve the sample complexity of learning the ground truth policy. These conditions can inform the data collection process for specific tasks. The result implies a parameterisation for LLMs that achieves this improved sample complexity. We detail how one can adapt existing architectures to yield this improved sample complexity.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Setting the Record Straight on Transformer Oversmoothing

Transformer-based models have recently become wildly successful across a diverse set of domains. At the same time, recent work has shown empirically and theoretically that Transformers are inherently limited. Specifically, they argue that as model depth increases, Transformers oversmooth, i.e., inputs become more and more similar. A natural question is: How can Transformers achieve these successes given this shortcoming? In this work we test these observations empirically and theoretically and uncover a number of surprising findings. We find that there are cases where feature similarity increases but, contrary to prior results, this is not inevitable, even for existing pre-trained models. Theoretically, we show that smoothing behavior depends on the eigenspectrum of the value and projection weights. We verify this empirically and observe that the sign of layer normalization weights can influence this effect. Our analysis reveals a simple way to parameterize the weights of the Transformer update equations to influence smoothing behavior. We hope that our findings give ML researchers and practitioners additional insight into how to develop future Transformer-based models.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Proxy Methods for Domain Adaptation

We study the problem of domain adaptation under distribution shift, where the shift is due to a change in the distribution of an unobserved, latent variable that confounds both the covariates and the labels. In this setting, neither the covariate shift nor the label shift assumptions apply. Our approach to adaptation employs proximal causal learning, a technique for estimating causal effects in settings where proxies of unobserved confounders are available. We demonstrate that proxy variables allow for adaptation to distribution shift without explicitly recovering or modeling latent variables. We consider two settings, (i) Concept Bottleneck: an additional ''concept'' variable is observed that mediates the relationship between the covariates and labels; (ii) Multi-domain: training data from multiple source domains is available, where each source domain exhibits a different distribution over the latent confounder. We develop a two-stage kernel estimation approach to adapt to complex distribution shifts in both settings. In our experiments, we show that our approach outperforms other methods, notably those which explicitly recover the latent confounder.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

No Train No Gain: Revisiting Efficient Training Algorithms For Transformer-based Language Models

The computation necessary for training Transformer-based language models has skyrocketed in recent years. This trend has motivated research on efficient training algorithms designed to improve training, validation, and downstream performance faster than standard training. In this work, we revisit three categories of such algorithms: dynamic architectures (layer stacking, layer dropping), batch selection (selective backprop, RHO loss), and efficient optimizers (Lion, Sophia). When pre-training BERT and T5 with a fixed computation budget using such methods, we find that their training, validation, and downstream gains vanish compared to a baseline with a fully-decayed learning rate. We define an evaluation protocol that enables computation to be done on arbitrary machines by mapping all computation time to a reference machine which we call reference system time. We discuss the limitations of our proposed protocol and release our code to encourage rigorous research in efficient training procedures: https://github.com/JeanKaddour/NoTrainNoGain.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Proximal Causal Learning with Kernels: Two-Stage Estimation and Moment Restriction

We address the problem of causal effect estimation in the presence of unobserved confounding, but where proxies for the latent confounder(s) are observed. We propose two kernel-based methods for nonlinear causal effect estimation in this setting: (a) a two-stage regression approach, and (b) a maximum moment restriction approach. We focus on the proximal causal learning setting, but our methods can be used to solve a wider class of inverse problems characterised by a Fredholm integral equation. In particular, we provide a unifying view of two-stage and moment restriction approaches for solving this problem in a nonlinear setting. We provide consistency guarantees for each algorithm, and we demonstrate these approaches achieve competitive results on synthetic data and data simulating a real-world task. In particular, our approach outperforms earlier methods that are not suited to leveraging proxy variables.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Local Latent Space Bayesian Optimization over Structured Inputs

Bayesian optimization over the latent spaces of deep autoencoder models (DAEs) has recently emerged as a promising new approach for optimizing challenging black-box functions over structured, discrete, hard-to-enumerate search spaces (e.g., molecules). Here the DAE dramatically simplifies the search space by mapping inputs into a continuous latent space where familiar Bayesian optimization tools can be more readily applied. Despite this simplification, the latent space typically remains high-dimensional. Thus, even with a well-suited latent space, these approaches do not necessarily provide a complete solution, but may rather shift the structured optimization problem to a high-dimensional one. In this paper, we propose LOL-BO, which adapts the notion of trust regions explored in recent work on high-dimensional Bayesian optimization to the structured setting. By reformulating the encoder to function as both an encoder for the DAE globally and as a deep kernel for the surrogate model within a trust region, we better align the notion of local optimization in the latent space with local optimization in the input space. LOL-BO achieves as much as 20 times improvement over state-of-the-art latent space Bayesian optimization methods across six real-world benchmarks, demonstrating that improvement in optimization strategies is as important as developing better DAE models.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

DAG Learning on the Permutahedron

We propose a continuous optimization framework for discovering a latent directed acyclic graph (DAG) from observational data. Our approach optimizes over the polytope of permutation vectors, the so-called Permutahedron, to learn a topological ordering. Edges can be optimized jointly, or learned conditional on the ordering via a non-differentiable subroutine. Compared to existing continuous optimization approaches our formulation has a number of advantages including: 1. validity: optimizes over exact DAGs as opposed to other relaxations optimizing approximate DAGs; 2. modularity: accommodates any edge-optimization procedure, edge structural parameterization, and optimization loss; 3. end-to-end: either alternately iterates between node-ordering and edge-optimization, or optimizes them jointly. We demonstrate, on real-world data problems in protein-signaling and transcriptional network discovery, that our approach lies on the Pareto frontier of two key metrics, the SID and SHD.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

When Do Flat Minima Optimizers Work?

Recently, flat-minima optimizers, which seek to find parameters in low-loss neighborhoods, have been shown to improve a neural network's generalization performance over stochastic and adaptive gradient-based optimizers. Two methods have received significant attention due to their scalability: 1. Stochastic Weight Averaging (SWA), and 2. Sharpness-Aware Minimization (SAM). However, there has been limited investigation into their properties and no systematic benchmarking of them across different domains. We fill this gap here by comparing the loss surfaces of the models trained with each method and through broad benchmarking across computer vision, natural language processing, and graph representation learning tasks. We discover several surprising findings from these results, which we hope will help researchers further improve deep learning optimizers, and practitioners identify the right optimizer for their problem.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Adapting to Latent Subgroup Shifts via Concepts and Proxies

We address the problem of unsupervised domain adaptation when the source domain differs from the target domain because of a shift in the distribution of a latent subgroup. When this subgroup confounds all observed data, neither covariate shift nor label shift assumptions apply. We show that the optimal target predictor can be non-parametrically identified with the help of concept and proxy variables available only in the source domain, and unlabeled data from the target. The identification results are constructive, immediately suggesting an algorithm for estimating the optimal predictor in the target. For continuous observations, when this algorithm becomes impractical, we propose a latent variable model specific to the data generation process at hand. We show how the approach degrades as the size of the shift changes, and verify that it outperforms both covariate and label shift adjustment.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

Cumulo: A Dataset for Learning Cloud Classes

One of the greatest sources of uncertainty in future climate projections comes from limitations in modelling clouds and in understanding how different cloud types interact with the climate system. A key first step in reducing this uncertainty is to accurately classify cloud types at high spatial and temporal resolution. In this paper, we introduce Cumulo, a benchmark dataset for training and evaluating global cloud classification models. It consists of one year of 1km resolution MODIS hyperspectral imagery merged with pixel-width 'tracks' of CloudSat cloud labels. Bringing these complementary datasets together is a crucial first step, enabling the Machine-Learning community to develop innovative new techniques which could greatly benefit the Climate community. To showcase Cumulo, we provide baseline performance analysis using an invertible flow generative model (IResNet), which further allows us to discover new sub-classes for a given cloud class by exploring the latent space. To compare methods, we introduce a set of evaluation criteria, to identify models that are not only accurate, but also physically-realistic. CUMULO can be download from https://www.dropbox.com/sh/i3s9q2v2jjyk2it/AACxXnXfMF5wuIqLXqH4NJOra?dl=0 .

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2022

MPC-Friendly Commitments for Publicly Verifiable Covert Security

We address the problem of efficiently verifying a commitment in a two-party computation. This addresses the scenario where a party P1 commits to a value $x$ to be used in a subsequent secure computation with another party P2 that wants to receive assurance that P1 did not cheat, i.e. that $x$ was indeed the value inputted into the secure computation. Our constructions operate in the publicly verifiable covert (PVC) security model, which is a relaxation of the malicious model of MPC appropriate in settings where P1 faces a reputational harm if caught cheating. We introduce the notion of PVC commitment scheme and indexed hash functions to build commitments schemes tailored to the PVC framework, and propose constructions for both arithmetic and Boolean circuits that result in very efficient circuits. From a practical standpoint, our constructions for Boolean circuits are $60\times$ faster to evaluate securely, and use $36\times$ less communication than baseline methods based on hashing. Moreover, we show that our constructions are tight in terms of required non-linear operations, by proving lower bounds on the nonlinear gate count of commitment verification circuits. Finally, we present a technique to amplify the security properties our constructions that allows to efficiently recover malicious guarantees with statistical security.

cs.CR↗