arXiv subjects

Matteo Basei

Publications and source records attributed to Matteo Basei.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2023

A Stationary Mean-Field Equilibrium Model of Irreversible Investment in a Two-Regime Economy

We consider a mean-field model of firms competing \`a la Cournot on a commodity market, where the commodity price is given in terms of a power inverse demand function of the industry-aggregate production. Investment is irreversible and production capacity depreciates at a constant rate. Production is subject to Gaussian productivity shocks, while large non-anticipated macroeconomic events driven by a two-state continuous-time Markov chain can change the volatility of the shocks, as well as the price function. Firms wish to maximize expected discounted revenues of production, net of investment and operational costs. Investment decisions are based on the long-run stationary price of the commodity. We prove existence, uniqueness and characterization of the stationary mean-field equilibrium of the model. The equilibrium investment strategy is of barrier-type and it is triggered by a couple of endogenously determined investment thresholds, one per state of the economy. We provide a quasi-closed form expression of the stationary density of the state and we show that our model can produce Pareto distribution of firms' size. This is a feature that is consistent both with observations at the aggregate level of industries and at the level of a particular industry. We establish a relation between economic instability and market concentration and we show how macroeconomic instability can harm firms' profitability more than productivity fluctuations.

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arXiv2023

Uncertainty over Uncertainty in Environmental Policy Adoption: Bayesian Learning of Unpredictable Socioeconomic Costs

The socioeconomic impact of pollution naturally comes with uncertainty due to, e.g., current new technological developments in emissions' abatement or demographic changes. On top of that, the trend of the future costs of the environmental damage is unknown: Will global warming dominate or technological advancements prevail? The truth is that we do not know which scenario will be realised and the scientific debate is still open. This paper captures those two layers of uncertainty by developing a real-options-like model in which a decision maker aims at adopting a once-and-for-all costly reduction in the current emissions rate, when the stochastic dynamics of the socioeconomic costs of pollution are subject to Brownian shocks and the drift is an unobservable random variable. By keeping track of the actual evolution of the costs, the decision maker is able to learn the unknown drift and to form a posterior dynamic belief of its true value. The resulting decision maker's timing problem boils down to a truly two-dimensional optimal stopping problem which we address via probabilistic free-boundary methods and a state-space transformation. We completely characterise the solution by showing that the optimal timing for implementing the emissions reduction policy is the first time that the learning process has become ``decisive'' enough; that is, when it exceeds a time-dependent percentage. This is given in terms of an endogenously determined threshold function, which solves uniquely a nonlinear integral equation. We numerically illustrate our results, discuss the implications of the optimal policy and also perform comparative statics to understand the role of the relevant model's parameters in the optimal policy.

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arXiv2022

A mean field model for the development of renewable capacities

We propose a model based on a large number of small competitive producers of renewable energies, to study the effect of subsidies on the aggregate level of capacity, taking into account a cannibalization effect. We first derive a model to explain how long-time equilibrium can be reached on the market of production of renewable electricity and compare this equilibrium to the case of monopoly. Then we consider the case in which other capacities of production adjust to the production of renewable energies. The analysis is based on a master equation and we get explicit formulae for the long-time equilibria. We also provide new numerical methods to simulate the master equation and the evolution of the capacities. Thus we find the optimal subsidies to be given by a central planner to the installation and the production in order to reach a desired equilibrium capacity.

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arXiv2020

Logarithmic regret for episodic continuous-time linear-quadratic reinforcement learning over a finite-time horizon

We study finite-time horizon continuous-time linear-quadratic reinforcement learning problems in an episodic setting, where both the state and control coefficients are unknown to the controller. We first propose a least-squares algorithm based on continuous-time observations and controls, and establish a logarithmic regret bound of order $O((\ln M)(\ln\ln M))$, with $M$ being the number of learning episodes. The analysis consists of two parts: perturbation analysis, which exploits the regularity and robustness of the associated Riccati differential equation; and parameter estimation error, which relies on sub-exponential properties of continuous-time least-squares estimators. We further propose a practically implementable least-squares algorithm based on discrete-time observations and piecewise constant controls, which achieves similar logarithmic regret with an additional term depending explicitly on the time stepsizes used in the algorithm.

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arXiv2019

Nonzero-sum stochastic games and mean-field games with impulse controls

We consider a general class of nonzero-sum $N$-player stochastic games with impulse controls, where players control the underlying dynamics with discrete interventions. We adopt a verification approach and provide sufficient conditions for the Nash equilibria (NEs) of the game. We then consider the limit situation of $N \to \infty$, that is, a suitable mean-field game (MFG) with impulse controls. We show that under appropriate technical conditions, the existence of unique NE solution to the MFG, which is an $\epsilon$-NE approximation to the $N$-player game, with $\epsilon=O\left(\frac{1}{\sqrt{N}}\right)$. As an example, we analyze in details a class of two-player stochastic games which extends the classical cash management problem to the game setting. In particular, we present numerical analysis for the cases of the single player, the two-player game, and the MFG, showing the impact of competition on the player's optimal strategy, with sensitivity analysis of the model parameters.

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arXiv2018

A Weak Martingale Approach to Linear-Quadratic McKean-Vlasov Stochastic Control Problems

We propose a simple and original approach for solving linear-quadratic mean-field stochastic control problems. We study both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon pro\-blems, and allow notably some coefficients to be stochastic. Extension to the common noise case is also addressed. Our method is based on a suitable version of the martingale formulation for verification theorems in control theory. The optimal control involves the solution to a system of Riccati ordinary differential equations and to a linear mean-field backward stochastic differential equation; existence and uniqueness conditions are provided for such a system. Finally, we illustrate our results through an application to the production of an exhaustible resource. MSC Classification: 49N10, 49L20, 93E20.

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arXiv2018

Optimal price management in retail energy markets: an impulse control problem with asymptotic estimates

We consider a retailer who buys energy in the wholesale market and resells it to final consumers. The retailer has to decide when to intervene to change the price he asks to his customers, in order to maximize his income. We model the problem as an infinite-horizon stochastic impulse control problem. We characterize an optimal price strategy and provide analytical existence results for the equations involved. We then investigate the dependence on the intervention cost. In particular, we prove that the measure of the continuation region is asymptotic to the fourth root of the cost. Finally, we provide some numerical results and consider a suitable extension of the model.

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arXiv2017

Linear-quadratic McKean-Vlasov stochastic control problems with random coefficients on finite and infinite horizon, and applications

We propose a simple and original approach for solving linear-quadratic mean-field stochastic control problems. We study both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon problems, and allow notably some coefficients to be stochastic. Our method is based on a suitable extension of the martingale formulation for verification theorems in control theory. The optimal control involves the solution to a system of Riccati ordinary differential equations and to a linear mean-field backward stochastic differential equation, existence and uniqueness conditions are provided for such a system. Finally, we illustrate our results through two applications with explicit solutions: the first one deals with a portfolio liquidation problem with trade crowding, and the second one considers an economic model of substitutable production goods.

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arXiv2017

A McKean-Vlasov approach to distributed electricity generation development

This paper analyses the interaction between centralised carbon emissive technologies and distributed intermittent non-emissive technologies. In our model, there is a representative consumer who can satisfy her electricity demand by investing in distributed generation (solar panels) and by buying power from a centralised firm at a price the firm sets. Distributed generation is intermittent and induces an externality cost to the consumer. The firm provides non-random electricity generation subject to a carbon tax and to transmission costs. The objective of the consumer is to satisfy her demand while mini\-mising investment costs, payments to the firm and intermittency costs. The objective of the firm is to satisfy the consumer's residual demand while minimising investment costs, demand deviation costs, and maximising the payments from the consumer. We formulate the investment decisions as McKean-Vlasov control problems with stochastic coefficients. We provide explicit, price model-free solutions to the optimal decision problems faced by each player, the solution of the Pareto optimum, and the Stackelberg equilibrium where the firm is the leader. We find that, from the social planner's point of view, the carbon tax or transmission costs are necessary to justify a positive share of distributed capacity in the long-term, whatever the respective investment costs of both technologies are. The Stackelberg equilibrium is far from the Pareto equilibrium and leads to an over-investment in distributed energy and to a much higher price for centralised energy.

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arXiv2016

Nonzero-sum stochastic differential games with impulse controls: a verification theorem with applications

We consider a general nonzero-sum impulse game with two players. The main mathematical contribution of the paper is a verification theorem which provides, under some regularity conditions, a suitable system of quasi-variational inequalities for the value functions and the optimal strategies of the two players. As an application, we study an impulse game with a one-dimensional state variable, following a real-valued scaled Brownian motion, and two players with linear and symmetric running payoffs. We fully characterize a Nash equilibrium and provide explicit expressions for the optimal strategies and the value functions. We also prove some asymptotic results with respect to the intervention costs. Finally, we consider two further non-symmetric examples where a Nash equilibrium is found numerically.

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