arXiv subjects

Matteo Bonetti

Publications and source records attributed to Matteo Bonetti.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Emulating the complex galactic-scale orbital dynamics of LISA massive black hole pairs with normalizing flows

Massive black hole (MBH) pairs, formed in galaxy mergers, may coalesce in a burst of gravitational waves. Estimating the coalescence time-scales and rates is a long-standing astrophysical problem, essential to inform predictions for future gravitational-wave detectors such as the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna, but remains challenging: MBH orbital decay in realistic galactic environments is complex and stochastic, and non-axisymmetric structures such as stellar bars can perturb MBH pair dynamics, delaying or accelerating binary formation and undermining the assumption that dynamical friction alone sets the inspiral duration. Capturing this evolution requires simulations too expensive to run at population scale. Here we present an artificial-intelligence framework that emulates the galactic-scale orbital decay of an inspiralling MBH using conditional normalizing flows trained on a large suite of semi-analytical orbital integrations. Our model captures the evolution of secondary MBHs orbiting within multi-component galactic merger remnants featuring rotating stellar discs and bars, across a broad range of MBH masses, orbital configurations, and bar properties. The trained emulator reproduces the simulations' decay-time distributions while reducing computational cost by orders of magnitude. For the first time, we apply this model to galaxy populations drawn from a cosmological simulation, exploiting morphological information on barred and non-barred galaxies to infer MBH binary formation time-scales across cosmic time. Our results show that stellar bars can alter the distribution of MBH binary formation times. More broadly, this demonstrates how simulation-based, surrogate machine-learning emulators can unlock a class of astrophysical problems where the physics is well understood system-by-system but intractable at scale.

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arXiv2026

Multimessenger prospects of quasi-periodic eruptions

Quasi-Periodic Eruptions (QPEs) are recurring soft X-ray transients that may be generated by inspirals of stellar-mass objects spiraling into supermassive black holes, known as extreme mass ratio inspirals (EMRIs). Independently, EMRIs and the gravitational-wave signals they generate are one of the key targets for the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). What is the potential of a coincident detection of EMRIs both as a QPE and by LISA? Electromagnetic counterparts to LISA events would provide sky localization, enable standard siren measurements of the Hubble constant and constrain formation mechanisms of the corresponding inspirals. Combined observations would link the accurate measurements of black hole masses and spins to their galactic nuclear environments and would thus enable lasting synergies with various observations across the electromagnetic spectrum. However, most of the currently known QPEs imply EMRI orbital periods that place the frequencies of the corresponding gravitational-wave signal out of the LISA sensitivity band. Additionally, the selection biases of QPE detections and the LISA instrument may preclude a coincident detection. Future searches should focus on expanding the QPE catalogs and ultimately hunt for ``golden'' short-period QPEs that correspond to EMRIs that fall within the LISA band.

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arXiv2026

The LISA Astrophysics MBHcatalogues Project: A comparison of predictions of simulated massive black hole binaries

In the hierarchical paradigm of galaxy formation, central massive black holes (MBHs) are expected to coalesce after the merger of their host galaxies. One of the main goals of the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) is to constrain the origin and growth of MBHs through their merger rates and mass distribution. Predicting MBH merger rates requires not only tracing their statistical population from large to small physical scales (kpc to sub-pc) but also modelling their formation, accretion, dynamics, mergers, and their galactic physical processes across cosmic time. This project is the result of a large collaborative effort undertaken by the LISA Astrophysics Working Group, bringing together its collective expertise on MBH formation, evolution, and modelling, to build a comprehensive understanding of MBH merger rates across cosmic time. The project compares various theoretical predictions of MBH merger rates, quantifies the spread, and evaluates the global astrophysical uncertainties of the LISA event rates. To build a unique and complete view, our work is based on about 20 semi-analytical models and cosmological simulations from the literature, all employing distinct approaches to modelling MBH and galaxy physics. To compute the merger rates, we also incorporate delays arising from the dynamical phase of MBH hardening to coalescence. We present the expected LISA merger rates given current galaxy formation models and discuss how the merger rate depends on model assumptions, such as the seeding model and the resolution of cosmological simulations.

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arXiv2026

Gravitational Waves from the Cosmic Dawn: Tracing Cosmic Black Hole Binaries with ET, LGWA and LISA

Next generation detectors, such as LISA, LGWA, and ET will, for the first time, probe the high redshift Universe, offering unique insight into the birth, growth, and dynamics of the first black holes (BHs) during their earliest stages formation. We aim to predict merger rates and gravitational wave (GW) signatures of "cosmic" binary BHs, forming as a result of galaxy mergers, at z>=4. We investigate how BH seeding, accretion physics and dynamical delays affect their properties and detectability across cosmic epochs. We use the semi-analytic model Cosmic Archaeology Tool (CAT) to trace the evolution and delayed-mergers, driven by dynamical friction, of BH binaries formed from light, medium-weight and heavy seeds, under Eddington-limited (EL) and super-Eddington (SE) accretion prescriptions. We employ the GWFish package to evaluate their GW signals and detectability by LISA, LGWA and ET. Our results show the impact of BH accretion and seeding prescriptions on the properties and distribution of detectable sources. In the EL model, the detected populations are dominated by nearly equal-mass binaries. In contrast, SE growth leads to lower mass ratios for LISA detections and medium ratios for ET and LGWA. We present the total detection rates predicted under the two accretion scenarios. The SE model allows BHs to grow faster, transferring a significant fraction of detectable systems from the ET band to the LISA band, compared to the EL model. As a result, the predicted LISA detection rate increases from ~32 yr^-1 in the EL case to ~64 yr^-1 in the SE scenario, and the ET detection rate reduces from ~64 yr^-1 in the EL model to only ~4 yr^-1 in the SE scenario. LGWA yields comparable detection rates in both scenarios (~21 yr^-1 in EL and ~12 yr^-1 in SE). The combined information encoded in mass ratios, redshift evolution and merger rates emerge as a promising diagnostic of early BH growth.

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arXiv2026

Two-body relaxation in the EMRI-TDE disk model for Quasi Periodic Eruptions

Quasi Periodic Eruptions (QPEs) are luminous bursts of soft X-rays recently discovered in galactic nuclei. They repeat on timescales of hours to weeks, superimposed to an otherwise stable quiescent X-ray level, consistent with emission from a radiatively efficient accretion flow around relatively low-mass MBHs. Although their physical origin is still debated, their quasi-periodicity naturally arises within the 'impact model', in which the X-ray bursts are generated by the interaction between an sBH or a star in a close orbit around the central MBH and the accretion disk formed by a tidal disruption event (TDE). While this model is consistent with the phenomenology of QPEs, it remains unclear whether such specific physical configurations are sufficiently commonto explain the observed QPE number density. We present the first end-to-end quantitative calculation of the expected QPE rate and abundance within the framework of the impact model. To this purpose, we combine the rates of TDEs and extreme mass-ratio inspirals (EMRIs) around MBHs spanning a range of masses masses. We employ the public code \textsc{PhaseFlow} to simulate seven systems with MBH masses between $10^5 M_\odot$ and $10^8 M_\odot$, each sourronded by a three-component population: one composed of $1M_\odot$ stars, and two consisting of sBHs with masses of $10M_\odot$ and $40 M_\odot$. Based on the emission constraints available in the literature, we restrict to sBH EMRIs on prograde orbit with eccentricity $e<0.5$ and inclination $\iota<20^{\circ}$ with respect to the accretion disk. For stellar EMRIs the constraints instead arise from the requirement that the star avoid tidal disruption. We find that the predicted QPE number density spans the range $10^{-12} \rm Mpc^{-3}$ to $10^{-6} \rm Mpc^{-3}$, depending on the assumed orbital period interval and on the adopted eccentricity and inclination thresholds.

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arXiv2026

Spacetime in motion: an evolving relativistic binary black hole metric for GIZMO

The last evolutionary stages of massive black hole binaries prior to coalescence is dominated by the emission of gravitational waves, which will be probed by the future Laser Interferometer Space Antenna. If gas is present around the two black holes, however, the associated electromagnetic emission can provide additional information about the binary properties and location before the merger event. For this reason, a proper characterisation of the electromagnetic emission during these phases is of fundamental importance, and requires a detailed description of the gas dynamics close to the event horizon of the two black holes, only achievable via numerical simulations. Within this context, we present the implementation of the Superposed Kerr-Schild dynamic metric in the relativistic scheme in the meshless code GIZMO. Our code can now simulate black hole binaries approaching merger with high computational efficiency and accuracy, taking into account relativistic effects on the gas. To validate our implementation, we perform two tests. First, we explore the case of a relativistic Bondi flow around a binary, finding very good agreement with numerical relativity simulations. Then we explore the case of an inviscid relativistic circumbinary disc, comparing our results with a similar simulation run assuming Newtonian gravity. In this second case, we find moderate differences in the mass accretion rate and in the inflow dynamics, which suggest that the presence of a non-Keplerian potential and of apsidal precession in the orbiting gas trajectories may produce stronger shocks and boost angular momentum transport in the disc. Our work highlights the importance of accounting for relativistic corrections in accretion disc simulations around black hole binaries approaching merger, even at scales much larger than those currently probed by numerical relativity simulations.

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arXiv2025

The Advanced X-ray Imaging Satellite (AXIS) Community Science Book

The AXIS Community Science Book represents the collective effort of 592 scientists worldwide to define the transformative science enabled by the Advanced X-ray Imaging Satellite (AXIS), a next-generation X-ray mission selected by NASA's Astrophysics Probe Program for Phase A study. AXIS will advance the legacy of high-angular-resolution X-ray astronomy with ~1.5'' imaging over a wide 24' field of view and an order of magnitude greater collecting area than Chandra in the 0.3-12 keV band. Combining sharp imaging, high throughput, and rapid response capabilities, AXIS will open new windows on virtually every aspect of modern astrophysics, exploring the birth and growth of supermassive black holes, the feedback processes that shape galaxies, the life cycles of stars and exoplanet environments, and the nature of compact stellar remnants, supernova remnants, and explosive transients. This book compiles 138 community-contributed science cases developed by five Science Working Groups focused on AGN and supermassive black holes, galaxy evolution and feedback, compact objects and supernova remnants, stellar physics and exoplanets, and time-domain and multi-messenger astrophysics. Together, these studies establish the scientific foundation for next-generation X-ray exploration in the 2030s and highlight strong synergies with facilities of the 2030s, such as JWST, Roman, Rubin/LSST, SKA, ALMA, ngVLA, and next-generation gravitational-wave and neutrino networks.

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arXiv2025

Assessing the performance of future space-based detectors: Astrophysical foregrounds and individual sources

The space mission LISA, scheduled for launch in 2035, aims to detect gravitational wave (GW) signals in the milli-Hz band. In the context of the ESA Voyage 2050 Call for new mission concepts, other frequency ranges are explored by the Gravitational-Wave Space 2050 Working Group to conceive new proposals for a post-LISA space-based detector. In this work, we give a preliminary estimate of the observational potential of three mission designs proposed in the literature, namely $\mu$Ares, AMIGO and the Decihertz Observatory. The analysis framework includes astrophysical GW sources, such as massive black hole binaries and extreme mass-ratio inspirals, and compact binaries, such as stellar black holes and white dwarfs. For each detector, we first present a consistent computation of the unresolved gravitational wave background (GWB) produced by the sum of all anticipated astrophysical populations using an iterative subtraction algorithm. We then investigate which types of systems are the most appealing by measuring the number of GW signals detected and exploring the source properties.

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arXiv2025

Eccentricity distribution of extreme mass ratio inspirals

We present realistic eccentricity distributions for extreme mass ratio inspirals (EMRIs) forming via the two-body relaxation channel in nuclear star clusters, tracking their evolution up to the final plunge onto the central Schwarzschild massive black hole (MBH). We find that EMRIs can retain significant eccentricities at plunge, with a distribution peaking at $e_\mathrm{pl} \approx0.2$, and a considerable fraction reaching much higher values. In particular, up to $20\%$ of the forming EMRIs feature $e_\mathrm{pl} > 0.5$ for central MBH masses $M_\bullet$ in the range $10^5 \mathrm{M_\odot} \leq M_\bullet \leq 10^6 \mathrm{M_\odot}$, partially due to EMRIs forming at large semi-major axes and "cliffhanger EMRI", usually neglected in literature. This highlights the importance of accounting for eccentricity in waveform modeling and detection strategies for future space-based gravitational wave observatories such as the upcoming Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). Furthermore, we find that the numerical fluxes in energy and angular momentum currently implemented in the FastEMRIWaveforms (FEW) package may not adequately sample the full parameter space relevant to low-mass MBHs ($M_\bullet < 10^6 \mathrm{M_\odot}$), potentially limiting its predictive power in that regime. Specifically, for $M_\bullet=10^5 \mathrm{M_\odot}$ we find that about $75\%$ ($50 \%$) of EMRIs at 2 years (6 months) from plunge fall outside the currently available flux parameter space. Our findings motivate the development of extended flux grids and improved interpolation schemes to enable accurate modeling of EMRIs across a broader range of system parameters.

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arXiv2025

Prospects for EMRI/MBH parameter estimation using Quasi-Periodic Eruption timings: short-timescale analysis

Quasi-Periodic Eruptions (QPEs) are luminous, recurring X-ray outbursts from galactic nuclei, with timescales of hours to days. While their origin remains uncertain, leading models invoke accretion disk instabilities or the interaction of a massive black hole (MBH) with a lower-mass secondary in an extreme mass ratio inspiral (EMRI). EMRI scenarios offer a robust framework for interpreting QPEs by characterizing observational signatures associated with the secondary's orbital dynamics. This, in turn, enables extraction of the MBH/EMRI physical properties and provides a means to test the EMRI scenario, distinguishing models and addressing the question: what can QPE timings teach us about massive black holes and EMRIs? In this study, we employ analytic expressions for Kerr geodesics to efficiently resolve the trajectory of the secondary object and perform GPU-accelerated Bayesian inference to assess the information content of QPE timings. Using our inference framework, referred to as QPE-FIT (Fast Inference with Timing), we explore QPE timing constraints on astrophysical parameters, such as EMRI orbital parameters and MBH mass/spin. We find that mild-eccentricity EMRIs ($e\sim0.1-0.3$) can constrain MBH mass and EMRI semimajor axis/eccentricity to the 10% level within tens of orbital periods, while MBH spin is unconstrained for the explored semimajor axes $\geq 100R_g$ and monitoring baselines $\mathcal{O}(10-100\rm)$ orbits. Introducing a misaligned precessing disk generally degrades inference of EMRI orbital parameters, but can constrain disk precession properties within 10-50%. This work both highlights the prospect of QPE observations as dynamical probes of galactic nuclei and outlines the challenge of doing so in the multimodal parameter space of EMRI-disk collisions.

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arXiv2025

Lighting up the nano-hertz gravitational wave sky: opportunities and challenges of multimessenger astronomy with PTA experiments

Pulsar Timing Array (PTA) experiments have the potential to unveil continuous gravitational wave (CGW) signals from individual massive black hole binaries (MBHBs). Detecting them in both gravitational waves (GW) and the electromagnetic (EM) spectrum will open a new chapter in multimessenger astronomy. We investigate the feasibility of conducting multimessenger studies by combining the CGW detections from an idealized 30-year SKA PTA and the optical data from the forthcoming LSST survey. To this end, we employed the $\texttt{L-Galaxies}$ semi-analytical model applied to the $\texttt{Millennium}$ simulation. We generated 200 different all-sky lightcones that include galaxies, massive black holes, and MBHBs whose emission is modeled based on their star formation histories and gas accretion physics. We predict an average of $\approx 33$ CGW detections, with signal-to-noise ratios $ S/N > 5$. The detected MBHBs are typically at $z < 0.5$, with masses of $ \sim 3 \times 10^{9} M_{\odot}$, mass ratios $> 0.6$ and eccentricities $\lesssim 0.2$. In terms of EM counterparts, we find less than 15% of these systems to be connected with an AGN detectable by LSST, while their host galaxies are easily detectable ($ < 23$ mag) massive ($ M_{\star} > 10^{11} M_{\odot}$) ellipticals with typical star formation rates ($10^{-15} yr^{-1} < sSRF < 10^{-10} yr^{-1}$). Although the CGW-EM counterpart association is complicated by poor sky localization (only 35% of these CGWs are localized within $\rm 100\, deg^2$), the number of galaxy host candidates can be considerably reduced (thousands to tens) by applying priors based on the galaxy-MBH correlations. However, picking the actual host among these candidates is highly non-trivial, as they occupy a similar region in any optical color-color diagram. Our findings highlight the considerable challenges entailed in opening the low-frequency multimessenger GW sky.

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arXiv2024

The fate of EMRI-IMRI pairs in AGN accretion disks: hydrodynamic and three body simulations

Extreme-mass-ratio inspirals (EMRIs) and intermediate-mass-ratio inspirals (IMRIs) are important gravitational wave (GW) sources for the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). It has been recently suggested that EMRIs and IMRIs can both form in the accretion disk of an active galactic nucleus (AGN). Considering the likely encounter between a sBH and an IMBH during the migration in the AGN disk, Paper I showed that a gap-opening IMBH can drive a surrounding sBH to migrate synchronously. In this work, we extend the study in Paper I with a more sophisticated model. We first use 3D hydrodynamical simulations to study the co-evolution of the disk and the migration of a sBH in the vicinity of an IMBH. We find that the gaseous torque, together with the tidal torque exerted by the IMBH, can drive synchronized migration until $\sim 10$ Schwarzschild radii from the central supermassive black hole (SMBH). We further use a relativistic three-body code to study the final fate of the sBH in the GW-dominated regime. We find that the sBH can be either captured or kicked out by the IMBH, which will result in either two subsequent IMRIs or an EMRI followed by an IMRI. These events will bring rich information about the formation and evolution of sBHs and IMBHs in AGNs.

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arXiv2024

Eppur si muove: Evidence of disc precession or a sub-milliparsec SMBH binary in the QPE-emitting galaxy GSN 069

X-ray quasi-periodic eruptions (QPEs) are intense soft X-ray bursts from the nuclei of nearby low-mass galaxies typically lasting about one hour and repeating every few. Their physical origin remains debated, although so-called impacts models in which a secondary orbiting body pierces through the accretion disc around the primary supermassive black hole (SMBH) in an extreme mass-ratio inspiral (EMRI) system are considered promising. In this work, we study the QPE timing properties of GSN 069, the first galactic nucleus in which QPEs were identified, primarily focusing on Observed minus Calculated (O-C) diagrams. The O-C data in GSN 069 are consistent with a super-orbital modulation on tens of days whose properties do not comply with the impacts model. We suggest that rigid precession of a misaligned accretion disc or, alternatively, the presence of a second SMBH forming a sub-milliparsec binary with the inner EMRI is needed to reconcile the model with the data. In both cases, the quiescent accretion disc emission should also be modulated on similar timescales. Current X-ray monitoring indicates that this might be the case, although a longer baseline of higher-cadence observations is needed to confirm the tentative X-ray flux periodicity on firm statistical grounds. Future dedicated monitoring campaigns will be crucial to test the overall impacts plus modulation model in GSN 069, and to distinguish between the two proposed modulating scenarios. If our interpretation is correct, QPEs in GSN 069 represent the first electromagnetic detection of a short-period EMRI system in an external galaxy, opening the way to future multi-messenger astronomical observations. [abridged]

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arXiv2024

Gas-induced perturbations on the gravitational wave in-spiral of live post-Newtonian LISA massive black hole binaries

We investigate the effect of dynamically coupling gas torques with gravitational wave (GW) emission during the orbital evolution of an equal-mass massive black hole binary (MBHB). We perform hydrodynamical simulations of eccentric MBHBs with total mass $M=10^6~{\rm M}_\odot$ embedded in a prograde locally isothermal circumbinary disk (CBD). We evolve the binary from $55$ to $49$ Schwarzschild radii separations using up to 2.5 post-Newtonian (PN) corrections to the binary dynamics, which allow us to follow the GW-driven in-spiral. For the first time, we report the measurement of gas torques onto a live binary a few years before the merger, with and without concurrent GW radiation. We also report the gas-induced orbital dephasing $\delta \phi_{\rm orb}\sim-0.007$ rad over $278$ orbital cycles that is likely driven mainly by disc-induced precession and LISA should be able to detect it at redshift $z=1$. Our results show how GWs alone can be used to probe the astrophysical properties of CBDs and have important implications for multi-messenger strategies aimed at studying the environments of MBHBs.

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arXiv2024

Test for LISA foreground Gaussianity and stationarity: extreme mass-ratio inspirals

Extreme Mass Ratio Inspirals (EMRIs) are key observational targets for the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) mission. Unresolvable EMRI signals contribute to the formation of a gravitational wave background (GWB). Characterizing the statistical features of the GWB from EMRIs is of great importance, as EMRIs will ubiquitously affect large segments of the inference scheme. In this work, we apply a frequentist test for GWB Gaussianity and stationarity, exploring three astrophysically-motivated EMRI populations. We construct the resulting signal by combining state-of-the-art EMRI waveforms and a detailed description of the LISA response with time-delay interferometric variables.Depending on the brightness of the GWB, our analysis demonstrates that the resultant EMRI foregrounds show varying degrees of departure from the usual statistical assumptions that the GWBs are both Gaussian and Stationary. If the GWB is non-stationary with non-Gaussian features, this will challenge the robustness of Gaussian-likelihood model, when applied to global inference results, e.g. foreground estimation, background detection, and individual-source parameters reconstruction.

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arXiv2024

Hanging on the cliff: Extreme mass ratio inspiral formation with local two-body relaxation and post-Newtonian dynamics

Extreme mass ratio inspirals (EMRIs) are anticipated to be primary gravitational wave sources for LISA (Laser Interferometer Space Antenna). They form in dense nuclear clusters when a compact object (CO) is captured by the central massive black holes (MBHs) due to frequent two-body interactions among orbiting objects. We present a novel Monte Carlo approach to evolve the post-Newtonian (PN) equations of motion of a CO orbiting an MBH accounting for two-body relaxation locally on the fly, without the assumption of orbit-averaging. We estimate the fraction $S(a_0)$ of EMRIs to total captures (including direct plunges, DPs) as a function of the initial semi-major axis $a_0$ for COs around MBHs of $M_\bullet\in[10^4\,{\rm M}_\odot,4\times10^6\,{\rm M}_\odot]$. Previous results indicate $S(a_0)\rightarrow 0$ at large $a_0$, with a sharp transition from EMRIs to DPs around a critical scale $a_{\rm c}$. This notion has been recently challenged for low-mass MBHs, with EMRIs forming at $a\gg a_{\rm c}$, the so-called "cliffhangers''. Our simulations confirm their existence, at larger numbers than previously expected. Cliffhangers start to appear for $M_\bullet\lesssim3\times 10^5\,{\rm M}_\odot$ and can account for up to 55% of the overall EMRIs formed. We find $S(a_0)\gg 0$ for $a\gg a_{\rm c}$, reaching values as high as 0.6 for $M_\bullet=10^4\,{\rm M}_\odot$, much larger than previously found. We find that the PN description of the system greatly enhances the number of EMRIs by shifting $a_{\rm c}$ to larger values at all MBH masses, and that the local treatment of relaxation significantly boosts the number of cliffhangers for small MBHs. Our work shows the limitations of standard assumptions for estimating EMRI formation rates, most importantly their dynamical models. Future estimates of rates and properties of EMRIs detectable by LISA should account for these improvements.

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arXiv2024

Fragments of harmony amid apparent chaos: a closer look at the X-ray quasi-periodic eruptions of the galaxy RX J1301.9+2747

Quasi-periodic eruptions (QPEs) are an extreme X-ray variability phenomenon associated with low-mass supermassive black holes. First discovered in the nucleus of the galaxy GSN 069, they have been so far securely detected in five other galaxies, including RX J1301.9+2747. When detected, the out-of-QPE emission (quiescence) is consistent with the high-energy tail of thermal emission from an accretion disk. We present the X-ray and radio properties of RX J1301.9+2747, both in quiescence and during QPEs. We analyse X-ray data taken during five XMM-Newton observations between 2000 and 2022. The last three observations were taken in coordination with radio observations with the Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array. We also make use of EXOSAT, ROSAT, and Chandra archival observations taken between 1983 and 2009. XMM-Newton detected 34 QPEs of which 8 have significantly lower amplitudes than the others. No correlated radio/X-ray variability was observed during QPEs. In terms of timing properties, the QPEs in RX J1301.9+2747 do not exhibit the striking regularity observed in the discovery source GSN 069. In fact there is no clear repetition pattern between QPEs: the average time separation between their peaks is about four hours, but it can be as short as one, and as long as six hours. The QPE spectral properties of RX J1301.9+2747 as a function of energy are however very similar to those of GSN 069 and of other QPE sources. The quiescent emission of RX J1301.9+2747 is more complex than that of GSN 069, as it requires a soft X-ray excess-like component in addition to the thermal emission from the accretion disk. Its long-term X-ray quiescent flux variations are of low-amplitude and not strictly monotonic, with a general decay over $\sim 22$ years. We discuss our observational results in terms of some of the ideas and models that have been proposed so far for the physical origin of QPEs.

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arXiv2024

Resolving the nano-Hz gravitational wave sky: the detectability of eccentric binaries with PTA experiments

Pulsar Timing Array (PTA) collaborations reported evidence of a nano-Hz stochastic gravitational wave background (sGWB) compatible with an adiabatically inspiraling population of massive black hole binaries (MBHBs). Despite the large uncertainties, the relatively flat spectral slope of the recovered signal suggests a possible prominent role of MBHB dynamical coupling with the environment or/and the presence of an eccentric MBHB population. This work aims at studying the capabilities of future PTA experiments to detect single MBHBs under the realistic assumption that the sGWB is originated from an eccentric binary population coupled with its environment. To this end, we generalize the standard signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and Fisher Information Matrix calculations used in PTA for circular MBHBs to the case of eccentric systems. We consider an ideal 10-year MeerKAT and 30-year SKA PTAs and apply our method over a wide number of simulated eccentric MBHB populations. We find that the number of resolvable MBHBs for the SKA (MeerKAT) PTA is ${\sim}\,30$ ($4$) at $\rm SNR\,{>}\,5$ (${>}\,3$), featuring an increasing trend for larger eccentricity values of the MBHB population. This is the result of eccentric MBHBs at ${\lesssim}\,10^{-9}\, \rm Hz$ emitting part of their power at high harmonics, thus reaching the PTA sensitivity band. Our results also indicate that resolved MBHBs do not follow the eccentricity distribution of the underlying MBHB population, but prefer low eccentricity values (${<}\,0.6$). Finally, the recovery of binary intrinsic properties and sky-localization do not depend on the system eccentricity, while orbital parameters such as eccentricity and initial orbital phase show clear trends. Although simplified, our results show that SKA will enable the detection of tens of MBHBs, projecting us into the era of precision gravitational wave astronomy at nano-Hz frequencies.

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