arXiv subjects

Matteo Cinelli

Publications and source records attributed to Matteo Cinelli.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Platform Sorting Drives Ideological Fragmentation in the Social Media Ecosystem

Ideological asymmetries in online political communication are often studied as localized phenomena emerging within communities. Here, we show that fragmentation instead operates at the level of entire platforms, consistent with a process of platform sorting in which users increasingly align with ideologically congruent environments. We analyze political information dynamics across Bluesky, Facebook, Reddit, Truth Social, Twitter/X, and YouTube during the 2020 and 2024 US presidential elections, combining measures of content sharing, engagement allocation, and user-level ideological orientation. Across platforms, ideological fragmentation emerges consistently and persists over time. Platforms exhibit distinct ideological profiles that persist across the two election cycles, ranging from strongly left-leaning to strongly right-leaning environments. Longitudinal analyses further reveal limited ideological variability among persistent user cohorts, indicating that apparent changes within single platforms reflect ecosystem-level sorting rather than convergence toward neutrality. Taken together, our results show that the dynamics of platform sorting is not a transient reaction to political events or moderation interventions, but a persistent structural feature of the social media ecosystem.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2026

Persistent Structural Inequality of Online Interactions Across Platforms

User interactions on social media platforms are unevenly distributed: a small subset of users consistently captures most of the activity, while the majority remains marginal. Although this pattern is well known and often described by power-law distributions, its consistency across time, platforms, and interaction types has not been systematically assessed. In this study, we analyze user-post bipartite networks from multiple social media platforms. We consider both active contributions (posts) and passive engagement (likes and comments), and quantify distributional properties and inequality using a KL-divergence-based model comparison, an inverse coefficient of variation, and a log-transformed Gini index. Our results show that interaction inequality remains stable over time within each platform. This holds across systems with different sizes, topical focuses, and governance models. These findings indicate that inequality in online engagement is not incidental but reflects structural constraints that shape how visibility and participation are distributed in digital environments.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2026

Reddit's Globalization over Twenty Years: Inferring Community Time Zone from Activity Timestamps

Online communities are a global phenomenon, but assessing their actual geographical spread requires accurate and scalable measurement. We propose and evaluate methods that infer the time zone of online communities solely from their temporal activity patterns, requiring nothing beyond hourly activity counts. Grounding our approach in the well-established finding that posting rhythms encode circadian structure, we compare time-domain and frequency-domain methods against a parsimonious heuristic: that activity reaches its minimum around 4 a.m. local time. On Reddit, we show that the best-performing method is accurate to a sub-30-minute resolution, and that fewer than a thousand comments are sufficient to reach peak performance. Similarly, our heuristic almost matches the accuracy of more complex methods, recovering the correct time zone within a one-hour margin on average. This simple method correlates significantly with the actual distribution of Reddit's geographical spread; we validate its generalizability across communities organized around diverse cultural phenomena, from sports to finance, and apply it at scale to characterize the geographic evolution of Reddit from its founding to the present. Our method is portable across platforms and requires no user disclosure, making it a practical baseline for any study that must account for the geographic structure of online behavior.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2026

The Statistical Signature of LLMs

Large language models generate text through probabilistic sampling from high-dimensional distributions, yet how this process reshapes the structural statistical organization of language remains incompletely characterized. Here we show that lossless compression provides a simple, model-agnostic measure of statistical regularity that differentiates generative regimes directly from surface text. We analyze compression behavior across three progressively more complex information ecosystems: controlled human-LLM continuations, generative mediation of a knowledge infrastructure (Wikipedia vs. Grokipedia), and fully synthetic social interaction environments (Moltbook vs. Reddit). Across settings, compression reveals a persistent structural signature of probabilistic generation. In controlled and mediated contexts, LLM-produced language exhibits higher structural regularity and compressibility than human-written text, consistent with a concentration of output within highly recurrent statistical patterns. However, this signature shows scale dependence: in fragmented interaction environments the separation attenuates, suggesting a fundamental limit to surface-level distinguishability at small scales. This compressibility-based separation emerges consistently across models, tasks, and domains and can be observed directly from surface text without relying on model internals or semantic evaluation. Overall, our findings introduce a simple and robust framework for quantifying how generative systems reshape textual production, offering a structural perspective on the evolving complexity of communication.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

How to Detect Information Voids Using Longitudinal Data from Social Media and Web Searches

The model of the attention economy, where content producers compete for the attention of users, relies on two key forces: information supply and demand. This study leverages the feedback loop between these forces to develop a method for detecting and quantifying information voids, i.e., periods in which little or no reliable information is available on a given topic. Using a case study on COVID-19 vaccines rollout in six European countries, and drawing on data from multiple platforms including Facebook, Google, Twitter, Wikipedia, and online news outlets, we examine how information voids emerge, persist and correlate with a decline in the proportion of high-quality information circulating online. By conceptualising information voids as a specific regime of information spreading, we also quantify their counterpart, information overabundance, which constitute a central component of the current definition of infodemic. We show that information voids are associated with a higher prevalence of misinformation, thus representing problematic hotspots in which individuals are more likely to be misled by low-quality online content. Overall, our findings provide empirical support for the inclusion of information voids in mechanistic explanations of misinformation emergence.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2026

Hyperactive Minority Alters the Stability of Community Notes

As platforms increasingly scale down professional fact-checking, community-based alternatives are promoted as more transparent and democratic. The main substitute being proposed is community-based contextualization, most notably Community Notes on X, where users write annotations and collectively rate their helpfulness under a consensus-oriented algorithm. This shift raises a basic empirical question: to what extent do users' social dynamics affect the emergence of Community Notes? We address this question by characterizing participation and political behavior, using the full public release of notes and ratings (between 2021 and 2025). We show that contribution activity is highly concentrated: a small minority of users accounts for a disproportionate share of ratings. Crucially, these high-activity contributors are not neutral volunteers: they are selective in the content they engage with and substantially more politically polarized than the overall contributor population. We replicate the notes' emergence process by integrating the open-source implementation of the Community Notes consensus algorithm used in production. This enables us to conduct counterfactual simulations that modify the display status of notes by varying the pool of raters. Our results reveal that the system is structurally unstable: the emergence and visibility of notes often depend on the behavior of a few dozen highly active users, and even minor perturbations in their participation can lead to markedly different outcomes. In sum, rather than decentralizing epistemic authority, community-based fact-checking on X reconfigures it, concentrating substantial power in the hands of a small, polarized group of highly active contributors.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2026

Wikipedia and Grokipedia: A Comparison of Human and Generative Encyclopedias

We present a comparative analysis of Wikipedia and Grokipedia to examine how generative mediation alters content selection, textual rewriting, narrative structure, and evaluative framing in encyclopedic content. We model page inclusion in Grokipedia as a function of Wikipedia page popularity, density of reference, and recent editorial activity. Inclusion is non-uniform: pages with higher visibility and greater editorial conflict in Wikipedia are more likely to appear in Grokipedia. For included pages, we distinguish between verbatim reproduction and generative rewriting. Rewriting is more frequent for pages with higher reference density and recent controversy, while highly popular pages are more often reproduced without modification. We compare editing activity across the two platforms and estimate page complexity using a fitness-complexity framework to assess whether generative mediation alters patterns of editorial participation. To assess narrative organization, we construct actor-relation networks from article texts using abstract meaning representation. Across multiple topical domains, including U.S. politics, geopolitics, and conspiracy-related narratives, narrative structure remains largely consistent between the two sources. Analysis of lead sections shows broadly correlated framing, with localized shifts in laudatory and conflict-oriented language for some topics in Grokipedia. Overall, generative systems preserve the main structural organization of encyclopedic content, while affecting how content is selected, rewritten, and framed.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2025

Z-Dip: a standardized measure for data modality assessment

Detecting multimodality in empirical distributions is a fundamental problem in statistics and data analysis, with applications ranging from clustering to the study of complex systems. In practice, however, assessing departures from unimodality in a consistent and comparable way remains challenging. Widely used methods such as Hartigan and Hartigan's Dip Test illustrate these difficulties, as the interpretation of their statistics depends strongly on sample size, requires calibration to determine significance, and, for large samples, exhibit increasing sensitivity, leading to rejection of unimodality for arbitrarily small deviations from the null. We introduce Z-Dip, a standardized measure of multimodality that addresses these limitations. By treating the Dip statistic as a random variable under the null hypothesis of unimodality and standardizing its observed value, the proposed approach yields scores that are directly comparable across datasets of different sizes. Using simulation-based calibration, we derive a universal decision threshold that closely reproduces classical Dip Test decisions without requiring sample-size-specific adjustments. Extensive validation on simulated data and on more than 88,000 empirical opinion distributions shows near-perfect agreement with the classical Dip Test while providing a more interpretable and comparable measure of modality. Finally, we propose a downsampling-based correction that mitigates residual sensitivity in extremely large samples. Open-source software and reference tables are provided to facilitate practical adoption.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Patterns, Models, and Challenges in Online Social Media: A Survey

The rise of digital platforms has enabled the large scale observation of individual and collective behavior through high resolution interaction data. This development has opened new analytical pathways for investigating how information circulates, how opinions evolve, and how coordination emerges in online environments. Yet despite a growing body of research, the field remains fragmented and marked by methodological heterogeneity, limited model validation, and weak integration across domains. This survey offers a systematic synthesis of empirical findings and formal models. We examine platform-level regularities, assess the methodological architectures that generate them, and evaluate the extent to which current modeling frameworks account for observed dynamics. The goal is to consolidate a shared empirical baseline and clarify the structural constraints that shape inference in this domain, laying the groundwork for more robust, comparable, and actionable analyses of online social systems.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2025

Generative Exaggeration in LLM Social Agents: Consistency, Bias, and Toxicity

We investigate how Large Language Models (LLMs) behave when simulating political discourse on social media. Leveraging 21 million interactions on X during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, we construct LLM agents based on 1,186 real users, prompting them to reply to politically salient tweets under controlled conditions. Agents are initialized either with minimal ideological cues (Zero Shot) or recent tweet history (Few Shot), allowing one-to-one comparisons with human replies. We evaluate three model families (Gemini, Mistral, and DeepSeek) across linguistic style, ideological consistency, and toxicity. We find that richer contextualization improves internal consistency but also amplifies polarization, stylized signals, and harmful language. We observe an emergent distortion that we call "generation exaggeration": a systematic amplification of salient traits beyond empirical baselines. Our analysis shows that LLMs do not emulate users, they reconstruct them. Their outputs, indeed, reflect internal optimization dynamics more than observed behavior, introducing structural biases that compromise their reliability as social proxies. This challenges their use in content moderation, deliberative simulations, and policy modeling.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2025

Towards global equity in political polarization research

With a folk understanding that political polarization refers to socio-political divisions within a society, many have proclaimed that we are more divided than ever. In this account, polarization has been blamed for populism, the erosion of social cohesion, the loss of trust in the institutions of democracy, legislative dysfunction, and the collective failure to address existential risks such as Covid-19 or climate change. However, at a global scale there is surprisingly little academic literature which conclusively supports these claims, with half of all studies being U.S.-focused. Here, we provide an overview of the global state of research on polarization, highlighting insights that are robust across countries, those unique to specific contexts, and key gaps in the literature. We argue that addressing these gaps is urgent, but has been hindered thus far by systemic and cultural barriers, such as regionally stratified restrictions on data access and misaligned research incentives. If continued cross-disciplinary inertia means that these disparities are left unaddressed, we see a substantial risk that countries will adopt policies to tackle polarization based on inappropriate evidence, risking flawed decision-making and the weakening of democratic institutions.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2025

Modelling the Climate Change Debate in Italy through Information Supply and Demand

Climate change is one of the most critical challenges of the twenty-first century. Public understanding of climate issues and of the goals regarding the climate transition is essential to translate awareness into concrete actions. In this context, social media platforms play a crucial role in disseminating information about climate change and climate policy. To better understand the dynamics of information circulation and the emergence of information voids we propose a model that takes into account the supply and demand of information related to the Italian climate-transition discourse. We conceptualise information supply as the production of content on Facebook, Instagram and GDELT (an online news database) while leveraging Google searches to capture information demand. Our findings highlight responsiveness and temporal coupling between supply and demand, particularly during moments of heightened public attention triggered by significant external events. These responsive interactions reveal an overall adaptive information ecosystem. However, we also observe persistent information voids which may limit public understanding and delay meaningful engagement.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2025

Coordinated Inauthentic Behavior and Information Spreading on Twitter

We explore the effects of coordinated users (i.e., users characterized by an unexpected, suspicious, or exceptional similarity) in information spreading on Twitter by quantifying the efficacy of their tactics in deceiving feed algorithms to maximize information outreach. In particular, we investigate the behavior of coordinated accounts within a large set of retweet-based information cascades identifying key differences between coordinated and non-coordinated accounts in terms of position within the cascade, action delay and outreach. On average, coordinated accounts occupy higher positions of the information cascade (i.e., closer to the root), spread messages faster and involve a slightly higher number of users. When considering cascade metrics such as size, number of edges and height, we observe clear differences among information cascades that are associated to a systematically larger proportion of coordinated accounts, as confirmed by comparisons with statistical null models. To further characterize the activity of coordinated accounts we introduce two new measures capturing their infectivity within the information cascade (i.e., their ability to involve other users) and their interaction with non-coordinated accounts. Finally, we find that the interaction pattern between the two classes of users follows a saturation-like process. A larger-scale targeting of non-coordinated users does not require a larger amount of coordinated accounts after a threshold value approximately 50%, after which involving more coordinated accounts within a cascade yields a null marginal effect. Our results contribute to shed light on the role of coordinated accounts and their effect on information diffusion.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2025

The simulation of judgment in LLMs

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly embedded in evaluative processes, from information filtering to assessing and addressing knowledge gaps through explanation and credibility judgments. This raises the need to examine how such evaluations are built, what assumptions they rely on, and how their strategies diverge from those of humans. We benchmark six LLMs against expert ratings--NewsGuard and Media Bias/Fact Check--and against human judgments collected through a controlled experiment. We use news domains purely as a controlled benchmark for evaluative tasks, focusing on the underlying mechanisms rather than on news classification per se. To enable direct comparison, we implement a structured agentic framework in which both models and nonexpert participants follow the same evaluation procedure: selecting criteria, retrieving content, and producing justifications. Despite output alignment, our findings show consistent differences in the observable criteria guiding model evaluations, suggesting that lexical associations and statistical priors could influence evaluations in ways that differ from contextual reasoning. This reliance is associated with systematic effects: political asymmetries and a tendency to confuse linguistic form with epistemic reliability--a dynamic we term epistemia, the illusion of knowledge that emerges when surface plausibility replaces verification. Indeed, delegating judgment to such systems may affect the heuristics underlying evaluative processes, suggesting a shift from normative reasoning toward pattern-based approximation and raising open questions about the role of LLMs in evaluative processes.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Modelling infodemics on a global scale: A 30 countries study using epidemiological and social listening data

Infodemics represent a significant threat to public health, arising from complex interactions between online and offline phenomena. The continuous feedback loops between digital information ecosystems and real-world contingencies make infodemics particularly challenging to define operationally, measure, and eventually model in quantitative terms. This study aims to evaluate the effect of various epidemic-related variables on the dynamics of the COVID-19 infodemic, using a regression modeling framework applied to data from 30 countries across diverse income groups. We use World Health Organization (WHO) COVID-19 surveillance data on new cases and deaths, vaccination data from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, infodemic data (volume of public conversations and social media content) from the WHO EARS platform, and Google Trends data to represent information demand. Our findings show that new deaths are the strongest predictor of document production, and that the epidemic burden in neighboring countries exerts a greater influence on document production than domestic epidemic conditions. Building on these results, we propose a data-driven classification of country-level response that highlights country-specific discrepancies between the evolution of the infodemic and the epidemic. Further, an analysis of the temporal evolution of the relationship between the two phenomena quantifies the extent to which discussions surrounding vaccine rollouts may have shaped the development of the infodemic. Beyond underscoring the value of a holistic approach that integrates both online and offline dimensions, our results demonstrate that the evolution of infodemics and their relationship with epidemic variables can be closely monitored, even over short time windows.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2025

From Niche to Mainstream: Community Size and Engagement in Social Media Conversations

The architecture of public discourse has been profoundly reshaped by social media platforms, which mediate interactions at an unprecedented scale and complexity. This study analyzes user behavior across six platforms over 33 years, exploring how the size of conversations and communities influences dialogue dynamics. Our findings reveal that smaller platforms foster richer, more sustained interactions, while larger platforms drive broader but shorter participation. Moreover, we observe that the propensity for users to re-engage in a conversation decreases as community size grows, with niche environments as a notable exception, where participation remains robust. These findings show an interdependence between platform architecture, user engagement, and community dynamics, shedding light on how digital ecosystems shape the structure and quality of public discourse.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2025

Quantifying Polarization: A Comparative Study of Measures and Methods

Political polarization, a key driver of social fragmentation, has drawn increasing attention for its role in shaping online and offline discourse. Despite significant efforts, accurately measuring polarization within ideological distributions remains a challenge. This study evaluates five widely used polarization measures, testing their strengths and weaknesses with synthetic datasets and a real-world case study on YouTube discussions during the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election. Building on these findings, we present a novel adaptation of Kleinberg's burst detection algorithm to improve mode detection in polarized distributions. By offering both a critical review and an innovative methodological tool, this work advances the analysis of ideological patterns in social media discourse.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2025

Decoding Musical Evolution Through Network Science

Music has always been central to human culture, reflecting and shaping traditions, emotions, and societal changes. Technological advancements have transformed how music is created and consumed, influencing tastes and the music itself. In this study, we use Network Science to analyze musical complexity. Drawing on $\approx20,000$ MIDI files across six macro-genres spanning nearly four centuries, we represent each composition as a weighted directed network to study its structural properties. Our results show that Classical and Jazz compositions have higher complexity and melodic diversity than recently developed genres. However, a temporal analysis reveals a trend toward simplification, with even Classical and Jazz nearing the complexity levels of modern genres. This study highlights how digital tools and streaming platforms shape musical evolution, fostering new genres while driving homogenization and simplicity.

cs.SD↗